How are SLR projections guiding coastal community adaptation planning?

Jessica BolsonPostdoctoral Fellow

UM/SECCWharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center

Context • Ongoing projects/interactions:– South Florida Water Sustainability and Climate Project

SFWSC (South Florida Water Management District)– Miami Beach SLR Initiative (Miami Beach and S. Fl.)– Southeast Florida Climate Change Compact– FWCA (Fl.)

• Proposed research involving SLR– SRN (US cities Miami, LA, etc.) – NSF Hazard SEES (S. Fl.)

Context: Miami Beach SLR Initiative

Context: Miami Beach SLR Initiative

Context: Southeast Florida Climate Change

Compact

Context: Southeast Florida Climate Change Compact

…to increase the regional relevance and usability of climate and sea level rise models for water suppliers and resources managers in Florida

Context: FWCA

Climate Change Concerns for Florida (from Miami-Dade SLR Task Force)

• Salinity changes in coastal bays, plus tidally influenced creeks and rivers • Shoreline retreat with natural habitat changes/losses• Increasing flood frequency and depth in coastal areas• Saltwater intrusion in water supply wells, OR higher canal stages and floods• Uncertainties and risks in rate and depth of sea level rise

How is information being used to support decisions?

• Ongoing projects/interactions:– NSF SFWSC (Everglades and S. Fl.)

• Scenarios: climate, SLR, demographic, economic, demand• Models: optimization, penalty functions, SFWMM 2x2

– Miami Beach SLR Initiative (Miami Beach and S. Fl.)• Gathering sources/ building research partnerships with FIU and UM to produce new

information• Other SLR information sources (USACE used in SFCCC)• Risk Analysis

– FWCA (Fl.)• Modeling impacts of SWI, working with USGS to model GW

– SFCCC• Series of workshops and interactions with scientists to agree on unified SLR projections• Adaptation Action Areas (Broward Cty)• Priority planning areas (Broward Cty)• Community Resiliency: Planning for Sea Level Rise

Example of how SLR information is being used

Example of how SLR information is being used

Example of how SLR information is being used

Systems based approach to adaptation

• Focus on short and long term risk reduction• Prioritize long term risk reduction, shift from optimizing under

current conditions to “robust and adaptable” decisions• Encourage public investment in low risk reduction (major

roads, water supply, flood protection, etc.)• Provide incentives for investment in low risk areas• Use hurricanes and storms as opportunities to redevelop in

low risk areas, implement pre-storm relocation agreements• Recognize a need for interagency collaboration and shared

planning• Address combined needs of human and natural systems

Who are key stakeholders and how are you interacting with them?

• Federal, state, regional, local water agencies, utilities• Local level planners, engineers, decision makers,

environmental, agricultural, tourism reps, developers, artists

• Water stakeholders (ex. representatives of WRAC at SFWMD)

• Larger groups of utilities representatives (ex. The Water Environment Research Foundation (WERF) The Leaders Innovation Forum for Technology (LIFT))

Who are your partners?• Research teams• City of Miami Beach employees• Water agency representatives with long-

standing regular participation and interest in climate science and climate impacts

• FWCA participants

Lessons learned • Science focused lessons– SLR is now viewed as one of the more certain impacts

that we need to adapt to– Long term precipitation forecasts are not viewed as

“useable science”– Need for useable science is evident

• Decision making– Need for decision-science and support– In addition to the science, communication is key– Focus on metrics useful to stakeholders (ex ROI) is critical

Research questions• What is the role of scenarios and models in

decision making?• What are the likely behavioral responses to

flooding (ex relocation, investment in mitigation, policy support)?

• How can we characterize the likelihood of adoption of new sustainable water technologies?