How are ARMS Data Collected?

an Overview

Rich AllenDeputy AdministratorNational Agricultural Statistics Service

Goals

• Clarify survey content• Describe data interrelationships• Outline sampling approach• Mention publicity approaches• Highlight data collection concerns• Touch on analysis/summary

FarmProductionExpendituresSurvey1972 - 1984

Cost of

Production

Surveys1973 - 1984

FarmCosts andReturnsSurvey1985 - 1995

CroppingPracticesSurvey1990 - 1995

AgriculturalResourceManagementSurvey1996 – 2???

Multiple phases are used for survey

efficiency, timeliness, and data linkages

ARMS Phase I

• Conducted between May and July to screen farms for the later phases

• Ensures operations are still in business

• Defines the sampling frame for later phases

• Shortens initial contact (average 5-10 minutes)

• Collects general farm data such as crops grown, livestock inventory, and value of sales

ARMS Phase II

• Conducted from September through December when information should be fresh

• Collects data on chemical usage, production practices, resource use, and variable costs of production for specific commodities

• Shortens interview by focusing on specific commodities (3-year average – 60 Minutes)

ARMS Phase III

• Conducted from February through April when records should be complete

• Collects information on whole farm finance, operator, and household characteristics

• Uses multiple questionnaire versions• Requires a considerable amount of

time (3-year average – 94 minutes)

Cost of Production Matrix 1

Year Commodities

2000 Dairy, Rice, Sugar beets

2001 Corn

2002 Soybeans

2003 Barley, Upland Cotton, Sorghum

2004 Peanuts, Durum Wheat, Other Spring Wheat, Winter Wheat, Hogs

Cost of Production Matrix 2

Year Commodities

2005 Corn, Dairy, Oats

2006 Soybeans, Poultry

2007 Upland Cotton, Rice

2003 ARMS II Sample Sizes

Commodity Samples

Barley 2,133

Sorghum 1,433

Cotton 2,559

Positive responses from Phase II move to Phase III.

2003 ARMS III Typical Versions

Version Samples

Cost & Returns Report 12,375

Barley PPCR 2,133

Sorghum PPCR 1,433

Cotton PPCR 2,559

Subtotal 18,500

(Core – 15 states – 16,850)

Chem Use Matrix 1

Year Commodities

2000 Corn, Upland Cotton, Soybeans, Durum Wheat, Other Spring Wheat, Winter Wheat

2001 Upland Cotton, Soybeans, Fall Potatoes

2002 Corn, Durum Wheat Wheat, Other Spring Wheat, Winter Wheat

Chem Use Matrix 2Year Commodities

2003 Corn, Fall Potatoes

2004 Soybeans

2005 Upland Cotton, Fall Potatoes

2006 Durum Wheat, Other Spring Wheat, Winter

Wheat

2007 Corn, Fall Potatoes

2003 ARMS III Expansion

• New funding provides for increased sample sizes for state level data

• A shorter “core” questionnaire has been designed

• Two survey modes will be used for initial contacts– Personal– Mail

Sample Selection Objectives

• Represent all operations• Create detailed data sets• Minimize respondent

burden

Perry – Burt Sampling

• Sample selection weights adjusted for previously selected operations

• Approach virtually eliminates chance of selection in consecutive years

Stratification

• Main variable is economic size class

• Sampling rates adjusted for operations selected for commodity specific contacts

Data Expansions

• Basic weights based on inverse of selection factors

• Weights adjusted within strata for missing data

Data Edits and Analysis

• Records edited for internal consistency

• Individual expansions examined for outliers

• National and Regional summaries are reviewed

Routine ARMS III Uses

• Income and expense estimates to BEA - - late June

• Farm Production Expenditures Report (NASS) - - mid-July

• National Income Estimates (ERS website) - - September

• Ag Income and Finance S & O (ERS website) - - November

ARMS Data Collection Concerns

• Survey seems long• Some questions are not farm

related• Some question seem quite

personal• Respondents often don’t

understand “What’s in it for me?”• Some questions ask for things that

can’t be easily answered

Past Data Collection Approaches• Strengthen enumerator training• Minimize overlap with other

surveys• Send out pre-survey letters• Set up interview appointments• Send back personalized

summary information

Survey Promotion Approaches

• NASS awareness postcards• Pre-survey “theme” letters• Data user testimonies• Promotional brochures

Data Collection Help Needed

• How to stress “What’s in it for you?”

• How to describe state and local data uses