how advanced simulation will impact the offshore industry both now and in the future
TRANSCRIPT
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How Advanced Simulation will
Impact the Offshore Industry
both Now and in the Future.
October 8th, 2015Altair Annual Technical Conference.
ByPaul Jukes, PhD, CEng, FIMarEST, FIMechE, FEI, FCMI
CEO & President
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• Introduction – Why use Advanced Simulation?
• Technical Challenges of Offshore Industry
• Examples of Advanced Engineering and Current
Trends
• Future Trends
• Conclusion
Agenda
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
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Introduction – Why use Advanced Simulation?
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
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Oil & Gas Will Remain Major Energy Source
Source: EIA
Source: ExxonMobil
• Growing World Population. 7.3B to 9.7B by 2050
• Increased Energy Demands. 80% increase by 2050
• Easy Days of Exploration Over – Harsher Environments.
• Technology Challenges
• Greater Need for Advanced Engineering & Simulation.
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• Sustained Low Oil Price
• Industry will be different after down turn
• Cost & Schedule
Oil Price
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
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Trend for Deepwater
• Water depths continue to increase
• Technology Challenges.
• Greater Need for Advanced Engineering & Simulation.
Courtesy of Offshore Magazine
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Technical Challenges in the Industry
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
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Subsea Technology Areas
• Deepwater (>10,000ft) • HPHT (20KSI, 350°F) • Subsea Pumping, Power &
Distribution, Subsea Separation• Multiphase Flow & Flow Assurance • Integrity Management & Monitoring • Long Tie-backs• Arctic• CO2/CCS• Cryogenics • Pipeline Stability
Courtesy : Beneath the Crust
Courtesy : Jukes, P. (JP Kenny)
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Examples of Advanced Simulation & Current Trends
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
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Advanced Simulations for Offshore Industry
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
Advanced Simulations
Component Design Arctic
GeotechnicsFracture
Mechanic
Composites
CFD
Advanced Installation
Analysis
FSI
Geomechanics
Reliability/Optimization
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High Pressure/High Temperature (HPHT)
• Pressure >20KSi
• Temperatures >400°F
• Wells of 500°F, 30ksi and beyond do indeed exist.
• Qualification Testing
• Seals and Materials are an issue. Polymers limited 275°F
• Global Buckling of Pipelines.
Courtesy of SLB
Courtesy of Shadravan & Amani
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HP/HT Wells
Source : “Technology Forage – Puits HPHT”, Total.
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Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
Ref. Pecom 2008 Jukes et al., JP Kenny.
Ref. Global E&P Summit, 2009, Jukes, JP Kenny.
Reeling Installation Analysis
Reel-lay Installation
Courtesy : Simulia
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• Model Single Pipe and Pipe-in-Pipe
• Highly Non-Linear
• All to see Pipeline Performance
• High Temperature creates High Axial Loads
• Thermal Buckle Management
• Significant Cost Savings in the Engineering
Advanced Simulation for Subsea Pipelines
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
Ref. ISOPE2008-TPC-297 (2008)Jukes et. al. – JP Kenny
Ref Pecom 2008 Jukes etc al., JP Kenny.
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Upheaval Buckling
Source: Unknown
Courtesy : Simulia
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Arctic
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Arctic
• 20% unlocked Hydro Carbon Reserves
• Harsh Environment
• Limited Weather Window
• Ice Gouging
• Installation and Construction Issues
• Drilling Issues
• Subsea Pipelines and Riser Design Issues
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• Ice Gouging Models
• Coupled Eulerian Lagrangian (CEL) models
• Gouges 5 m (16.5 ft) deep
• Forces 100 MN, (10,000Te) 22,500 kips
• Burial Depth = 2 ~ 3 x Scour Depth (Literature)
• Significant Cost Savings in the Engineering
Advanced Simulations for Arctic Ice Gouging
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
CEL Model – Ref. OMAE2009-79553
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Ultra Deep Water• Water Depths >10,000 ft
• Water Depth will continue to increase
• High Hangoff Loads
• Composite Risers
• Improved Fatigue and Chemical resistance
• Fracture and Fatigue Crack Growth Analysis of Composites.
• Fracture , fatigue, delamination, debonding initiation and propagation in composite laminates.
• Buckling and Post-buckling analysis of Composite Structures.
Water Depth
10,000 ft
Ref - Whitfield, Stephen. JPT Apr 2015.Ref. Dimitri Soteropoulos et al. , “Using Abaqus to Model Delamination in Fiber Reinforced Composite Materials ” Simulia 2012 SIMULIA
Delamination of Composites under compressive Loads
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• Platform Motions/VIM*
• Ship Dynamics*
• Tank Sloshing
• Slapping/Slamming
• Multiphase Flow
• Flow Induced Turbulence (FIT)
• Flow Induced Pulsation (FLIP)
• VIV of Pipelines, Riser & Jumpers.
• CFD-FEA
Advanced Simulation for Fluid Structure Interaction
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
Courtesy : Altair
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Oil & Gas Risers
• Risers are subject to fast accumulation of
fatigue damage from Vortex Induced Vibration
– VIV predictions of arrays of multiple risers
require accurate CFD and FSI over a number
of frequencies
– Difficult to model and predict
• Significant contribution from high harmonics
– Especially important for deep water risers
– Only first mode modelled in empirical analysis
tools like SHEAR7
• Coupled DES P-FSI Simulation with Abaqus
• AcuSolve predicts all harmonic modes
AcuSolve has been successfully applied to the analysis & design of Oil & Gas Risers used
to transport hydrocarbons from the ocean floor wellhead to the floating platform /
ship:
Ref - OMAE 2009-79801 Courtesy : Altair
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Mitigation of Vortex Induced Vibration
• In some cases, the oscillating fluid forces can be disrupted or mitigated
– Adding “strakes” will disrupt the vortex shedding reducing vibrations
– Wake Induced Oscillation predicted on the downstream riser
The strakes contribute to increased riser drag
which can limit production in high ocean
current regions
Also helical strakes show degraded
performance in downstream inline risers
Ref - OMAE 2009-79801
Courtesy : Altair
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AcuSolve + Motionsolve Coupling• Example of Riser with Fairing in an ocean current
– Fairing rotates (windmills) about riser with friction between the riser and Fairing
WaterFlow
Courtesy : Altair
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Key Technologies: Overset grids
Courtesy : Cd-Adapco
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Expanding the analysis to look at the effect of a cross-sea, the ship was turned 10 degrees to the oncoming sea and released to roll, pitch and heaveThis leads to more movement of the crane tip and therefore a larger range of cable tension
Lifting Analysis
Courtesy : Cd-Adapco
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Flexible Riser & Umbilical FEA Modelling
Flexible Riser Umbilical
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• Pipeline/Risers Components
• Subsea System Components
• Probabilistic Design Methods
• Reliability Based Design Optimization
• Design of Experiments
Advanced Simulations for Component Design
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
Source : Altair Conference 2014
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• Soil Structure Interaction
• Subsea Structure Foundations Design
• Anchor and Mooring Foundations
• Pipeline Crossings
• Centrifuge Testing
Advanced Simulation for Offshore Geotechnics
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
Ref. J. S. Templeton, III , “Finite Element Analysis in Offshore Geotechnics – A Thirty-Year Retrospective” Simulia 2012 SIMULIA Customer Conference
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Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
• Compare actual BOP shearing test with simulation• Create a database of Shearing test results• Scale model and do simulation• Reduce expensive shearing test
Shearing Drill Pipe Simulation
Ref – BSEE Technology Assessment Programs (TAP) Program
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Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
• Analyze flowing well at multiple flow rates• Range of pressures & Various ram positions• Increase in shearing force due to flow and
pressure can be simulated.
Flowing well condition
Ref – BSEE Technology Assessment Programs (TAP) Program
Courtesy : Altair
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Future Trends
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
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Computing Power
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
Computing power will continue to get faster & cheaper Cloud Computing will continue to open up a world of opportunities Power equivalent to the human brain
Power of Human Brain by 2023
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Creating a Great Engineering Solution
‘Added-value’
Cost Savings
Effective
Solution
Optimised
Design
+ + =
Novel IdeasYears of
Experience
Advanced
Simulation
Path
Dependent
Highly
Non-linear
Highly
Qualified
Range of
Backgrounds
Lateral
Thinking
Original
Ideas
COMPETENCY
ADVANCED
NUMERICAL
TOOLS
INNOVATIONENGINEERING
SOLUTION
Courtesy : Jukes, P. (JP Kenny)
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Increased Computer Power
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
• The Kurzweil Curve
2050
2023
2010
2001
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• Safety is number one Core Value in Oil & Gas Industry
Simulation
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
Ref: Maersk Training Simulator
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Model Complete System
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
• Ability to Model the Complete System
• Included all types of Non-linearity
• Run Quickly (few hours not days or weeks)
• Better estimate of Loads
• ‘The Prize’ = Significant Cost Saving in the Engineering
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Technical challenges in Oil & Gas industry will continue (e.g.
HPHT, UDW and Arctic).
Use of advanced numerical analysis and simulation allows cost
effective solutions especially during low oil price.
Mid term outlook is good for Advanced Simulation – pressure
to reduce costs, improve software, cheaper hardware
(particularly cloud solutions), and greater acceptance of
Advanced Simulations.
Advanced Simulation offers a World of exciting Opportunities.
Conclusions
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
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Thank You!Any Questions?
Capabilities of The Technology & Engineering Group25th September 2015
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How Advanced Simulation will
Impact the Offshore Industry
both Now and in the Future.
October 8th, 2015Altair Annual Technical Conference.
ByPaul Jukes, PhD, CEng, FIMarEST, FIMechE, FEI, FCMI
CEO & President