how accurate is the icc decision on dl system

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ARE THE I.C.C.-FINDINGS AND DECISION CORRECT? V. Jayadevan (The one who developed the VJD system)

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Post on 19-Jun-2015

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This is a small presentation to illustrate that the ICC decision to retain D/L system is incorrect. Even a person having some basic knowledge about cricket can understand it very easily. It takes less than 10 minutes.

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  • 1. ARE THE I.C.C.-FINDINGS AND DECISIONCORRECT?V. Jayadevan(The one who developed the VJD system)

2. In the ICC press release, two reasons were pointed out to decide tocontinue with D/L system.There are no evidences of significant flaws in D/L systemNo improvements could be offered by the use of VJD methodThe committee also expressed satisfaction over the thoroughnessand independence of the report submitted by the reviewer. 3. There are clear evidences of significant flaws in D/L results.Somehow the creators have developed an impression in the whole cricketcommunity that it is a highly robust system, both mathematically andstatisticallyThe general inherent fear of people for mathematics discourages them fromquestioning D/L system beyond a limitBut the truth is that it is just a mediocre system with severalshortcomings. 4. An example indicating serious statistical flaw in statistical analysis.50 over 50 over VJD-targetD/L target forprojected scoreSituationprojected scoreteam-2 for team-2 of team-1, of team-1, D/L VJDTeam-1, 50/0 when matchinterrupted after 20 overs. 140 231 113191 Team-2 get 20 oversTeam-1, 50/1 when matchinterrupted after 20 overs. 115 188 108181 Team-2 get 20 oversTeam-1, 50/2 when matchinterrupted after 20 overs.95 156 103172 Team-2 get 20 overs 5. D/L target forVJD-target forSituation team-2 team-2Team-1 100/0 when match interrupted after 20 overs. 179170Team-2 get 20 oversTeam-1 100/1 when match interrupted after 20 overs. 172164Team-2 get 20 oversTeam-1 100/2 when match interrupted after 20 overs. 163158Team-2 get 20 overs Difference in targets of team-2 for team-1s score of 100 D/LVJD and team-1s score of 50 for loss of wickets 0,1 and 2 For zero loss of wicketsT(100/0)-T(50/0) 39 (179-140)57 (170-113) For the loss of 1 wicket T(100/1)-T(50/1)57 (172-115) 56 (164-108) For the loss of 2 wicketsT(100/2)-T(50/2)68 (163-95)55 (158-103) 6. D/L target for 50/0 in 25 overs is 118 which looks OK, the projected scoreis 167 which also looks reasonable. But see the difference between 231and 167; 64 runs just for a change of 5 overs.Again, for 100/0 in 25, the D/L target is 193 (looks very high). Thedifference in targets between 50/0 and 100/0 in 20 overs is just 39 runs.But the difference between 50/0 and 100/0 in 25 overs, is 75 runs. 7. Very serious errors in par scores in case of T20 matches. Situation: Comparison of par-scores corresponding to 5 overs (you can have a result at the completion of 5 overs) in high scoring T20 matches.Team-1s Score D/L Par scores at five overs corresponding to wickets 0-90 1 2 3 45 6 7 8 9 20046 49 53 596778 95 119 150 181 22052 55 58 637081 97 121 156 195 24058 60 63 677281 96 119 157 206 26064 65 67 707482 94 115 154 212 28070 70 71 737782 92 111 147 213 8. Par score table for a T20 match where Team-1 make 250 runs OversWickets down completed01234 56789 5 61 6365 68 73 82 95 118156210 8 98 99 101103106 112121136165210 10123124125126129 133139151172211 12148149149150152 154159166182212 15186186187187188 189190194201218113/5 in 8 overs is a winning score. In 15 overs, 202/8 is a winning score. Par-scorefor 5 overs and 6 wickets is 95. Same is the par-score for a score of 200 (instead of250). After 12 overs 148/0, 159/6 and 166/7 are equivalent scores! 9. Is not there any clear advantage by using VJD system? Here are some solid examples from real match situationsSl.noSituationD/L VJDEngland 176/5 after 36, 5 overs when match rescheduled to46. Then after 37,5 overs when England were 181/5 again1 226 212rescheduled to 40 overs. England make 193/6 in 40. Target for NZin 40.SA 226/3 in 42. Four overs lost 250 in 46, Target for India in 462 271 260overs3 India 226/8 in 47, 1 overs. Target for Pakistan in 33.202 1874 New Zealand 212/5 in 44, 2 overs, Target for W.I. in 33 overs.211 201Australia 96/1 in 19 when the interruption occurred. Rescheduled5 to 29. Australia makes 183 in 29. Target for South Africa in 29 223 209(debut of Wincoda 3.0)D/L results were very severely criticized in cases #1,#2 and# 4. It was anothersystem which was in use while #3 was played. In #5, D/L just escapedbecause, SA did not put any fight back. When Australia got most of the powerplay overs and the final 10 overs, it makes no sense to give such a hugeincrease in target. 10. There are very serious statistical and mathematical flaws inD/L systemThere are clear and definite advantages by switching overto VJD systemThe report of the reviewer is a shallow and prejudiced oneand he was misleading the committee to protect his specialinterests.