housing progress in massachusetts jobs for massachusetts barry bluestone dean, school of social...
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Housing Progress in Massachusetts
Jobs for Massachusetts
Barry BluestoneDean, School of Social Science, Urban Affairs, and Public PolicyDirector, Center for Urban and Regional PolicyNortheastern University
Boston Federal Reserve Bank
March 13, 2007
Massachusetts Employment Trends and Population Dynamics
U.S. - Employment - 1996-2006
125.7
129.6131.5
133.4
136.9 136.9 136.5 137.7139.3
141.4
144.6
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Massachusetts - Employment - 1996-2006
3105.5
3171.8
3220.5
3254.6
3283.03263.4
3234.4
3201.5 3199.5 3205.13230.6
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Employment Growth (2000-2006) Massachusetts vs. U.S.
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%C
onst
ruct
ion
Hig
h Te
chM
fg
Fina
ncia
lS
ervi
ces
Com
pute
rS
ervi
ces
Edu
catio
nS
ervi
ces
Hea
lth C
are
Per
cent
age
Cha
nge
Mass
U.S.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Massachusetts Population
5737.0
6016.4
6349.1 6394.8 6411.6 6417.6 6407.4 6398.7
5000.0
5200.0
5400.0
5600.0
5800.0
6000.0
6200.0
6400.0
6600.0
1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Popu
latio
n (in
thou
sand
s)
U.S. Bureau of the Census
Massachusetts Net Migration (2000-2005)
33,292 33,347 31,785 29,041 26,515
-22,892
-39,506-48,514
-61,980 -60,053-70,000
-50,000
-30,000
-10,000
10,000
30,000
50,000
2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005
Foreign Immigration Internal Migration
U.S. Census Bureau
Population Change by Age Cohort (2000-2004)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Under 5 5 to 19 20-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+
Age Cohort
Per
cent
age
Cha
nge
Mass
U.S.
U.S. Bureau of the Census
Where did they go?
TX
CA
MT
AZ
ID
NV
NM
CO
IL
OR
UT
KS
WY
IA
SD
NE
MN
ND
FL
OK
WI
MO
AL
WA
GA
AR
LA
MI
IN
NY
PA
NC
MS
TN
KYVA
OH
SC
ME
WV
MI VTNH
MD
NJ
MA
CT
DE
RI
Net Migration* Betweeen Massachusetts and Competitor States1990-2002
*Thicker line represents more migration
State Net Migration from State
Florida -99,082 New Hampshire -78,201 California -23,978 Arizona -11,033 North Carolina -8,983 Washington -4,516
$169$159
$152 $146 $148 $150 $154$161
$168
$186
$210
$245
$273
$313
$343
$376
$165 $168
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
(in
$th
ou
san
ds)
Greater Boston Median Single Family Home Price 1987-2006
Source: The Warren Group Publications
$169$159
$152 $146 $148 $150 $154$161 $168
$186
$210
$245
$273
$313
$343
$376
$395
$373
$165 $168
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
(in
$th
ou
san
ds)
2005Class A Apartment Rents
$1
,95
3
$1
,82
5
$1
,74
5
$1
,68
6
$1
,67
7
$1
,63
2
$1
,57
9
$1
,52
6
$1
,51
7
$1
,46
6
$1
,43
9
$1
,32
5
$1
,31
6
$1
,24
1
$1
,15
5
$1
,11
1
$1
,04
3
$1
,01
8
$1
,01
2
$9
87
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Source: Forbes Magazine
Calculations based on 900 Sq.Ft. Apartment
Annual Cost of Living: 4 Person Household
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cost of Living Decile
De
cil
e A
ve
rag
e C
os
t o
f
Liv
ing
Boston$64,656
Source: Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”
Universe: 304 U.S. Metro Areas
Greater Boston Family Budget 4 Person Family with 2 Children
Housing Costs: 7th Highest MSA Child Care: 7th Highest MSA Health Care: 7th Highest MSA Personal Care: 6th Highest MSA Fed/State Tax: 2nd Highest MSA
Total Cost: 1st Highest MSA
Economic Policy Institute, Family Budget Calculator, 2005
Among 304 U.S. Metropolitan Areas
Top Decile: Metro Area Cost of Living
Boston $ 64,656Washington (D.C. portion) $ 61,440Nassau-Suffolk, NY $ 60,780 Stamford-Norwalk, CN $ 60,720 Lawrence (Mass. portion) $ 59,280 New York, NY $ 58,656 Barnstable-Yarmouth, MA $ 58,236 San Francisco, CA $ 57,624 Worcester (Mass. portion) $ 55,704Springfield, MA $ 55,320Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN $ 54,948 Nashua, NH $ 54,852 Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA $ 53,808Oakland, CA $ 53,412 San Jose, CA $ 52,800 Pittsfield, MA $ 52,632 Rochester, MN $ 51,288
Monmouth-Ocean, NJ $ 50,736San Diego, CA $ 50,088Newark, NJ $ 49,992New Haven-Meriden, CN $ 49,848Honolulu, HI $ 49,824Philadelphia (Pa. portion) $
49,716Boulder-Longmont, CO $ 49,596Bridgeport, CN $ 49,272Manchester, NH $
49,152Santa Rosa, CA $ 48,924Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY $ 48,900Hartford, CN $ 48,684Trenton, NJ $ 48,576Rochester, NY $ 48,540
Economic Policy Institute: Family Budget Calculator
Universe: 304 U.S. Metro Areas
A Tale of Two CitiesBasic Budget2 Parents, 2 Children
Boston
Monthly Housing $1,266Monthly Food $ 587Monthly Child Care $1,298Monthly Transportation $ 321Monthly Health Care $ 592Monthly Other Necessity $ 500Monthly Taxes $ 824Monthly Total $5,388
Annual Total $64,656
Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill
Monthly Housing $ 779Monthly Food $ 587Monthly Child Care $ 866Monthly Transportation $ 358Monthly Health Care $ 368Monthly Other Necessity $ 369Monthly Taxes $ 350Monthly Total $3,677
Annual Total $44,124
A Tale of Two Cities
Source: Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”
Regional Average Monthly Housing Costs (2004)
$892.60
$708.46 $692.82$617.23 $616.29 $566.14 $583.67
$720.00
$914.63
-$100
$100
$300
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
Hou
sing
Cos
ts
Boston ($1,266)
Source: Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”
The Impact of Housing Prices and Cost of Living on the Massachusetts Economy
Impact on EmploymentImpact on Net Internal Migration
Employment Growth (%) (2000-2004)
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Housing Price Decile
Per
cent
Cha
nge
Low Price High Price
Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Universe: 245 U.S. Metro Areas
0.95%
2.91%
2.29%
0.86%
1.53%
0.68%
-0.68%
0.12%
-0.62%
1.49%
Employment Growth (%) (2000-2004)
-6.00%
-5.00%
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Housing Price Decile
Per
cent
Cha
nge
Boston MSA (-4.9%)
Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Universe: 245 U.S. Metro Areas
Employment Growth (%) (2000-2004)
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cost of Living Decile
Per
cent
Cha
nge
Low Cost High Cost
Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-0.21%
0.93%
-0.02%
0.84%1.06%
0.50%
1.09%
1.98%
0.62%
2.53%
Universe: 245 U.S. Metro Areas
Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of the Census
Internal Net Migration (%) (2000-2004)
-0.8
1%
-1.0
6%
0.1
8%
0.2
7%
0.9
3%
0.3
6%
2.7
2%
3.0
5%
2.4
5%
-2.2
5%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Housing Cost Decile
Decil
e P
erc
en
t
Boston MSA (-5.2%)
Universe: 304 U.S. Metro Areas
Internal Net Migration (2000-2004)
0.3
5%
-0.0
3%
0.5
9%
0.4
8% 1.2
3% 1.9
5%
1.5
2%
1.5
6%
0.1
1%
-2.1
2%
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cost of Living Decile
Decil
e P
erc
en
t
Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of the Census
Universe: 304 U.S. Metro Areas
The Massachusetts Housing Pipeline
A Good Start at Permitting New Housing
Housing Unit Pipeline in Greater Boston
Source: U.S. Census; pre-1980 compiled by BRA Research Department
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,00068
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
5+ units 1-4 units
2003-2005
1993-2002
No. of Communities
Approved or Estimated 40R Zoned
Units
Estimated 40R
Affordable Units
Eligible 40R Incentive Payment
Potential 40R
Density Bonus
Payment
1 (Approved) 10 2,881 570 $2.9 M $7.8 M
2 (Filed with DHCD)
8 4,628 937 $3.9 M $13.8 M
3 (PDF grant funding)
6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 (under local consideration)
18 N/A N/A N/A N/A
42 7,509(minimum)
1,607(minimum
)
$7.1Million
$22.3Million
The Smart Growth 40R Housing Pipeline
Lagging “Starter” Homes
Year Total Units Permitted
Units in Single Family
Structures
Single Family
Units as % of Total
Units in 2-4 Unit
Structures
Units in 5+ Unit
Structures
1998 10,846 8,639 79.7% 574 1,633
1999 10,662 7,775 72.9% 746 2,141
2000 10,342 7,102 68.7% 701 2,539
2001 9,701 6,313 65.1% 686 2,702
2002 9,520 6,408 67.3% 764 2,348
2003 12,121 6,020 49.7% 1,093 5,003
2004 13,556 7,000 51.6% 994 5,562
2005 15,945 7,270 45.6 % 1,015 7,660
Housing Production Up in Massachusetts… but Still a Lingering Problem for Young Families
New “Starter” Home Proposal Proposing new legislation to encourage
voluntary local zoning for modest priced “starter” homes 1,700 s.f./3 Bedroom 5-8 units per acre Affordable units at 150% of AMI State pays 100% of local school costs State local aid bonuses to encourage re-zoning
and permitting Higher bonuses than Chapter 40R Payments
Continue to encourage municipalities to adopt Chapter 40R
Work with Governor and Legislature to assure permanent funding for 40R and 40S
Develop new legislative program for “starter” homes
Develop new program for low income family rental housing using innovative financing mechanisms
CHTF: 2007 Agenda