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Housing Market Update Presented by Tim Lawless, Research Director, Asia Pacific [email protected] | @timlawless 1

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Page 1: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

Housing Market Update Presented by Tim Lawless, Research Director, Asia Pacific

[email protected] | @timlawless

1

Page 2: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

2

Residential real estate underpins Australia's wealth with the asset class now worth $6.9 trillion

Source: CoreLogic, ABS, RBA, ASX

Number of dwellings

9.7 million

Outstanding mortgage

debt

$1.62 trillion

Household wealth held

in housing

51.6%

Total sales p.a.

462,548

Gross value of

sales p.a.

$267.9 billion

Page 3: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

3

Housing market conditions have been diverse over the past two cycles

Source: CoreLogic

Cumulative capital gains post GFC (from Jan 2009)

Page 4: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

4

Capital gains have accelerated across Sydney and Melbourne over the second half of 2016

Source: CoreLogic

Rolling annual change in Sydney and Melbourne dwelling values

Sydney

Melbourne

Combined capitals

Page 5: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

5

The pace of capital gains is has also accelerated across Hobart and Canberra over the past year

Source: CoreLogic

Rolling annual change in Hobart and Canberra dwelling values

Hobart

Canberra

Combined capitals

Page 6: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

6

Capital gains across Brisbane and Adelaide remain moderate with values rising less than 5% over the past 12 months

Source: CoreLogic

Rolling annual change in Brisbane and Adelaide dwelling values

Brisbane

Adelaide Combined capitals

Page 7: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

7

The annual pace of declines has started to ease in Darwin and Perth, however any recovery is likely to be a slow process

Source: CoreLogic

Rolling annual change in Perth and Darwin dwelling values

Perth

Darwin

Combined capitals

Page 8: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

8 Source: CoreLogic Less

than

$200K

$200K

to

$300K

$300K

to

$400K

$400K

to

$500K

$500K

to

$600K

$600K

to

$700K

$700K

to

$800K

$800K

to

$900K

$900K

to $1m

>=$1m

Sydney house values Melbourne house values Brisbane house values

Buying a detached house under $1m in Sydney is becoming hard…

Page 9: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

9 Source: CoreLogic

Housing affordability is set to be one of the major issues this year

Page 10: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

10 Source: CoreLogic

The dwelling price to income ratio highlights that some cities have seen household incomes rising much slower than dwelling values.

Dwelling price to income ratio, largest capital cities

Page 11: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

11 Source: CoreLogic

Dwelling price to income ratio’s, Sydney and Melbourne (SA2 regions)

Page 12: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

12 Source: CoreLogic

Low mortgage rates have resulted in a substantial improvement in serviceability measures, despite strong capital gains in some cities.

% of annual household income required to service

an 80% LVR mortgage

Page 13: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

13

First time buyers remain a relatively small component of mortgage demand

Source: CoreLogic, ABS

First home buyers as a % of all owner occupier housing

finance commitments

First home buyers as a % of all owner

occupier housing finance commitments,

Nov 2016

Page 14: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

14

Unit approvals have well and truly peaked, except in Sydney where approved supply continues to trend higher

Source: CoreLogic

Rolling annual number of unit approvals, major capitals Unit approvals as a % of all dwelling

approvals

Page 15: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

15

Despite a peak in approvals & commencements, the unit supply pipeline remains close to record highs

Source: CoreLogic

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Sep-76 Sep-86 Sep-96 Sep-06 Sep-16

NSW Vic Qld SA WA

Houses and units under construction, national Houses under construction by state Units under construction by state

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Sep-76 Sep-86 Sep-96 Sep-06 Sep-16

Houses

Units

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Sep-76 Sep-86 Sep-96 Sep-06 Sep-16

NSW Vic Qld SA WA

Page 16: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

16

Brisbane and Melbourne are facing the largest uplift in unit stock over the next two years

Source: CoreLogic Settlement Risk Report

Number of units approved for construction over the next 12 and 24 months

State GCCSANew units

next 12 months

New units

next 24 months

New units next 12

months as % of

current stock

New units next 24

months as % of

current stock

VIC Greater Melbourne 33,667 93,451 5.4% 15.0%

NSW Greater Sydney 30,202 85,659 4.0% 11.4%

QLD Greater Brisbane 15,823 44,404 8.2% 23.0%

WA Greater Perth 8,659 20,662 4.0% 9.5%

SA Greater Adelaide 2,663 6,560 3.4% 8.4%

ACT Australian Capital Territory 1,848 5,676 3.0% 9.3%

NT Greater Darwin 534 1,667 2.8% 8.9%

TAS Greater Hobart 128 574 0.8% 3.4%

QLD Rest of Qld 8,347 19,298 3.3% 7.6%

NSW Rest of NSW 4,883 11,364 2.6% 6.1%

WA Rest of WA 392 3,482 1.1% 9.9%

VIC Rest of Vic. 802 2,575 1.1% 3.6%

TAS Rest of Tas. 131 458 1.1% 3.7%

NT Rest of NT 114 168 3.1% 4.6%

SA Rest of SA 15 67 0.2% 0.7%

Page 17: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

17

But to truly understand the supply risk we need to monitor the pipeline at a smaller geographic aggregation

Source: CoreLogic

Number of units approved for construction over the next 12 and 24 months

SA3 Region

New units

next 12 months

New units

next 24 months

New units next 12

months as % of

current stock

New units next 24

months as % of

current stock

Melbourne City, Greater Melbourne, VIC 8,906 14,124 10.5% 16.7%

Brisbane Inner, Greater Brisbane, QLD 3,346 9,441 10.3% 29.0%

Sydney Inner City, Greater Sydney, NSW 2,284 7,674 2.1% 6.9%

Parramatta, Greater Sydney, NSW 1,428 6,265 4.4% 19.1%

Strathfield - Burwood - Ashfield, Greater Sydney, NSW 2,012 5,830 5.7% 16.4%

Perth City, Greater Perth, WA 1,262 5,548 3.2% 14.3%

Port Phillip, Greater Melbourne, VIC 1,511 5,266 3.2% 11.1%

Brisbane Inner - North, Greater Brisbane, QLD 2,408 5,260 11.2% 24.4%

Glen Eira, Greater Melbourne, VIC 1,207 4,910 3.7% 15.0%

Ryde - Hunters Hill, Greater Sydney, NSW 923 4,764 3.3% 17.1%

Brunswick - Coburg, Greater Melbourne, VIC 1,870 4,157 10.1% 22.4%

Canterbury, Greater Sydney, NSW 1,292 4,147 5.8% 18.7%

Whitehorse - West, Greater Melbourne, VIC 1,623 4,043 9.6% 23.8%

Holland Park - Yeronga, Greater Brisbane, QLD 1,031 4,018 8.3% 32.2%

Yarra, Greater Melbourne, VIC 1,149 3,964 4.3% 14.9%

Stonnington - West, Greater Melbourne, VIC 1,295 3,705 3.6% 10.4%

Boroondara, Greater Melbourne, VIC 1,077 3,666 3.3% 11.3%

Dandenong, Greater Melbourne, VIC 809 3,555 3.5% 15.3%

Botany, Greater Sydney, NSW 1,359 3,259 11.5% 27.6%

Darebin - North, Greater Melbourne, VIC 975 3,242 6.7% 22.3% Source: CoreLogic Settlement Risk Report

Page 18: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

18

House and unit values are diverging in Melbourne and Brisbane, while the trends are similar across the housing types in Sydney

Source: CoreLogic

Rolling annual change in house and unit values

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane

Page 19: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

19 Source: CoreLogic

A large proportion of Perth, Melbourne and Brisbane off-the-plan unit settlements are showing valuations that are lower than the contract price.

Page 20: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

20 Source: CoreLogic Pain & Gain Report

The unit sector is showing a substantially higher proportion of loss making sales, except in Sydney

Proportion of loss making resales, major capitals

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth

Page 21: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

21

Rental markets are generally soft and yields are edging to new record lows from month to month

Source: CoreLogic

Annual change in weekly rents Gross rental yields

Page 22: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

22

Despite record low rental yields, investment demand has rebounded through the 2nd half of 2016, with investors most concentrated in NSW

Source: CoreLogic, ABS

Value of housing finance commitments for investment

purposes (excl. refi)

Investors as % of the value of all housing

finance commitments (excl. refi)

Page 23: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

23 Source: CoreLogic

Turnover: settled sales have

stabilised recently across a number

of capital cities

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Jan-97 Jan-02 Jan-07 Jan-12 Jan-17

Combined capitals

12 month avg

Page 24: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

24

Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne

Source: CoreLogic

Sydney: a sellers market

Listing numbers finished last year at the lowest level

in more than five years.

Perth: a buyers market

Listing numbers finished last year at the highest level

in more than five years.

Page 25: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

25

Vendors are very much in the drivers seat across Melbourne, Sydney, Hobart and Canberra

Source: CoreLogic

Average rate of vendor discounting, Combined capitals Average days on market, Combined capitals

Page 26: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

26

Clearance rates have started the year on a strong footing

Source: CoreLogic

Week ending Feb 5, 2017

Page 27: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

27 Source: CoreLogic

Port Hedland Council Region

HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 $311,000 163

Median price Nov 2015 $630,000 102

Median price Nov 2011 $795,000 296

Change over past year -50.6% 59.8%

Change over 5 years -60.9% -44.9%

UNITS Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 $130,000 18

Median price Nov 2015 $450,000 17

Median price Nov 2011 $707,500 44

Change over past year -71.1% 5.9%

Change over 5 years -81.6% -59.1%

Houses Units

Nov-16 -18.2%

Nov-15 -19.6%

Nov-11 -3.3%

Houses Units

Nov-16 86

Nov-15 138

Nov-11 69

Median discount

Median selling time

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16

Me

dia

n s

ellin

g p

rice

Nu

mb

er

of

sale

s (

rollin

g 3

mo

nth

)

Median house and unit price and number of sales over time

Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median unit price (RHS)

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median vendor discount

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median days on market

improving

worsening

worsening

improving

Roebourne Council Region

HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 $315,000 270

Median price Nov 2015 $415,000 169

Median price Nov 2011 $760,000 280

Change over past year -24.1% 59.8%

Change over 5 years -58.6% -3.6%

UNITS Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 $150,000 19

Median price Nov 2015 $295,000 15

Median price Nov 2011 $487,500 40

Change over past year -49.2% 26.7%

Change over 5 years -69.2% -52.5%

Houses Units

Nov-16 -13.4%

Nov-15 -11.7%

Nov-11 -4.0%

Houses Units

Nov-16 73

Nov-15 64

Nov-11 66

Median discount

Median selling time

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16

Me

dia

n s

ellin

g p

rice

Nu

mb

er

of

sale

s (

rollin

g 3

mo

nth

)

Median house and unit price and number of sales over time

Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median unit price (RHS)

-16.0%

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median vendor discount

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median days on market

improving

worsening

worsening

improving

Mackay Council Region

HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 $339,000 1,080

Median price Nov 2015 $368,000 1,089

Median price Nov 2011 $415,000 1,785

Change over past year -7.9% -0.8%

Change over 5 years -18.3% -39.5%

UNITS Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 $220,000 147

Median price Nov 2015 $285,000 169

Median price Nov 2011 $325,000 305

Change over past year -22.8% -13.0%

Change over 5 years -32.3% -51.8%

Houses Units

Nov-16 -10.9% -15.4%

Nov-15 -10.1% -11.4%

Nov-11 -5.5% -6.4%

Houses Units

Nov-16 76 131

Nov-15 81 110

Nov-11 66 72

Median discount

Median selling time

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16

Me

dia

n s

ellin

g p

ric

e

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

(ro

llin

g 3

mo

nth

)

Median house and unit price and number of sales over time

Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median unit price (RHS)

-18.0%

-16.0%

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median vendor discount

Houses Units

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median days on market

Houses Units

improving

worsening

worsening

improving

Isaac Council Region

HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 $125,000 128

Median price Nov 2015 $200,000 102

Median price Nov 2011 $485,000 462

Change over past year -37.5% 25.5%

Change over 5 years -74.2% -72.3%

UNITS Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 na 7

Median price Nov 2015 na 4

Median price Nov 2011 $151,800 124

Change over past year na na

Change over 5 years na na

Houses Units

Nov-16 -16.7%

Nov-15 -22.8%

Nov-11 -3.1%

Houses Units

Nov-16 95

Nov-15 98

Nov-11 35

Median discount

Median selling time

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16

Me

dia

n s

ellin

g p

ric

e

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

(ro

llin

g 3

mo

nth

)

Median house and unit price and number of sales over time

Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS)

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median vendor discount

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median days on market

improving

worsening

worsening

improving

Mining regions may be moving through the trough of their spectacular downturn, but any recovery to previous peaks will take many years.

Page 28: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

28 Source: CoreLogic

Noosa Council Region

HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 $595,000 1,293

Median price Nov 2015 $579,000 1,324

Median price Nov 2011 $525,000 706

Change over past year 2.8% -2.3%

Change over 5 years 13.3% 83.1%

UNITS Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 $491,000 887

Median price Nov 2015 $420,000 839

Median price Nov 2011 $417,500 457

Change over past year 16.9% 5.7%

Change over 5 years 17.6% 94.1%

Houses Units

Nov-16 -5.2% -5.6%

Nov-15 -4.9% -5.5%

Nov-11 -10.9% -7.7%

Houses Units

Nov-16 70 72

Nov-15 74 87

Nov-11 116 134

Median discount

Median selling time

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16

Me

dia

n s

ellin

g p

ric

e

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

(ro

llin

g 3

mo

nth

)

Median house and unit price and number of sales over time

Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median unit price (RHS)

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median vendor discount

Houses Units

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median days on market

Houses Units

improving

worsening

worsening

improving

Gold Coast Council Region

HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 $595,000 8,253

Median price Nov 2015 $560,000 8,536

Median price Nov 2011 $495,000 4,876

Change over past year 6.3% -3.3%

Change over 5 years 20.2% 69.3%

UNITS Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 $399,000 11,756

Median price Nov 2015 $376,000 12,471

Median price Nov 2011 $365,000 6,172

Change over past year 6.1% -5.7%

Change over 5 years 9.3% 90.5%

Houses Units

Nov-16 -4.2% -4.5%

Nov-15 -4.4% -5.3%

Nov-11 -9.6% -7.7%

Houses Units

Nov-16 36 53

Nov-15 39 57

Nov-11 90 107

Median discount

Median selling time

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16

Me

dia

n s

ellin

g p

ric

e

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

(ro

llin

g 3

mo

nth

)

Median house and unit price and number of sales over time

Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median unit price (RHS)

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median vendor discount

Houses Units

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median days on market

Houses Units

improving

worsening

worsening

improving

Byron Council Region

HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 $790,000 706

Median price Nov 2015 $720,000 657

Median price Nov 2011 $590,000 384

Change over past year 9.7% 7.5%

Change over 5 years 33.9% 83.9%

UNITS Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 $612,000 231

Median price Nov 2015 $520,000 271

Median price Nov 2011 $425,000 108

Change over past year 17.7% -14.8%

Change over 5 years 44.0% 113.9%

Houses Units

Nov-16 -4.3%

Nov-15 -4.5%

Nov-11 -11.2%

Houses Units

Nov-16 65

Nov-15 64

Nov-11 129

Median discount

Median selling time

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16

Me

dia

n s

ellin

g p

rice

Nu

mb

er

of

sale

s (

rollin

g 3

mo

nth

)

Median house and unit price and number of sales over time

Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median unit price (RHS)

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median vendor discount

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median days on market

improving

worsening

worsening

improving

Surf Coast Council Region

HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 $655,000 671

Median price Nov 2015 $630,000 690

Median price Nov 2011 $575,000 561

Change over past year 4.0% -2.8%

Change over 5 years 13.9% 19.6%

UNITS Median price Num sales (year)

Median price Nov 2016 $500,000 124

Median price Nov 2015 $497,500 133

Median price Nov 2011 $476,250 136

Change over past year 0.5% -6.8%

Change over 5 years 5.0% -8.8%

Houses Units

Nov-16 -3.2%

Nov-15 -3.7%

Nov-11 -4.2%

Houses Units

Nov-16 50

Nov-15 58

Nov-11 76

Median discount

Median selling time

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16

Me

dia

n s

ellin

g p

rice

Nu

mb

er

of

sale

s (

rollin

g 3

mo

nth

)

Median house and unit price and number of sales over time

Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median unit price (RHS)

-9.0%

-8.0%

-7.0%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median vendor discount

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16

Median days on market

improving

worsening

worsening

improving

Lifestyle and tourism based regions are showing a healthy recovery after their post GFC slump.

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29

Housing demand: Victoria is leading the way in terms of the rate of population growth

Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA

1.4%

2.1%

1.4%

0.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.2%

1.3%

1.4%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

NT

ACT

AUST

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Jun-86 Jun-96 Jun-06 Jun-16

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Jun-86 Jun-96 Jun-06 Jun-16

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000

Jun-86 Jun-91 Jun-96 Jun-01 Jun-06 Jun-11 Jun-16

Quarterly change in national population

Net overseas migration Natural increase Annual change in population

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30

Lenders are generally requiring larger deposits and charging a premium on investor mortgages

Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA

Loan to valuation ratio bands for new mortgages Average standard variable mortgage rates, owner

occupier v investor rates

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31

Interstate migration into Queensland is once again rising, creating additional housing demand

Source: CoreLogic, ABS

Page 32: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

32

What are the forecasts saying? • Gradual slowdown in Sydney and Melbourne markets with a slight correction in Sydney but

extended period of modest declines in Melbourne. • Sustainable capital gains across Brisbane of 3-6% per annum. • Adelaide to underperform inflation, but remain in positive nominal growth. • A return to positive growth in Perth & Darwin by mid 2018. • Hobart to return to a more sedate growth position by 2018.

Source: CoreLogic/Moodys Analytics

2017 2018 2019

ACT 5.0% 2.9% 3.0%

Adelaide 2.8% 1.3% 1.1%

Brisbane 3.0% 4.7% 5.6%

Darwin -5.8% 2.8% 7.6%

Hobart 3.7% 1.2% 1.2%

Melbourne 2.4% -2.7% -2.6%

Perth -4.9% 3.1% 7.7%

Sydney 6.0% 0.0% -0.4%

Forecast annual change in dwelling values CoreLogic/Moodys Analytics forecast model

Based on September 2016 forecast series, year on year change

Page 33: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

33

Outlook for 2017

• The debate around housing affordability is likely to gather pace, especially if growth in

dwelling values continues to outpace income growth and mortgage rates edge higher.

• Settlement risk is likely to become more evident as the significant number of off-the-plan unit

sales transition to completion and settlement.

• A widening divergence in the rate of growth for houses and units.

• Potential for a finance shock at the time of settlement for off-the-plan buyers.

• Developers may find achieving pre-sale targets very challenging.

• The pace of capital gains in Sydney and Melbourne is likely to slow due to affordability

constraints, higher supply and potentially a deflection of investor demand towards other cities.

• Perth and Darwin dwelling values are likely to find a floor, but any recovery will be slow and

dependent on an improvement in economic conditions.

• If lending for investment purposes continues at the current pace, we may see a new round of

policy initiatives that may cool investor demand.

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34

About Us

Source: CoreLogic

CoreLogic Australia is a wholly owned subsidiary of CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), which is the largest property data and

analytics company in the world. CoreLogic provides property information, analytics and services across Australia, New

Zealand and Asia, and recently expanded its service offering through the purchase of project activity and building cost

information provider Cordell. With Australia’s most comprehensive property databases, the company’s combined data

offering is derived from public, contributory and proprietary sources and includes over 500 million decision points

spanning over three decades of collection, providing detailed coverage of property and other encumbrances such as

tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information.

With over 20,000 customers and 150,000 end users, CoreLogic is the leading provider of property data, analytics and

related services to consumers, investors, real estate, mortgage, finance, banking, building services, insurance,

developers, wealth management and government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics,

workflow technology, advisory and geo spatial services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth

opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. CoreLogic employs over 650 people across Australia and in New

Zealand. For more information call 1300 734 318 or visit www.corelogic.com.au

CoreLogic produces an advanced suite of housing market analytics that provides key insights for understanding housing market conditions at a granular geographic level. Granular data is often used for

portfolio analysis and benchmarking, risk assessments and understanding development feasibility and market sizing. It gives industry professionals valuable modules which provide essential analytics and

insights for decision making and strategy formation within the residential property asset class. We can tailor reports to suit your business requirements.

Call us on 1300 734 318 or email us at [email protected] or visit us at www.corelogic.com.au

Page 35: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

Market Scorecard: Monitor and measure market share and performance of real estate agents at an individual office or a Franchise brand level across Australia.

Identify the competing brands and independents at a suburb, postcode, user defined territory and State level. Easily locate growth opportunities and market

hotspots, and view the performance of the established offices in these new areas of interest.

Market Trends: Detailed housing market indicators down to the suburb level, with data in time series or snapshot and segmented across houses, units and land.

The Market Trends data includes key housing market metrics such as median prices, median values, transaction volumes, rental statistics, vendor metrics such as

average selling time and vendor discounting rates.

CoreLogic RP Data Indices: The suite of CoreLogic RP Data Indices range from simple market measurements such as

median prices through to repeat sales indices and our flagship hedonic home value indices. The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic index has been specifically designed

to track the value of a portfolio of properties over time and is relied upon by Australian regulators and industry as the most up to date and accurate measurement of

housing market performance.

Economist Pack: A suite of indices and indicators designed specifically for Australian economic commentators who require the most up to date and detailed view

of housing market conditions. The economist pack includes the CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic indices for capital cities and ‘rest of state’ indices, the stratified hedonic

index, hedonic total return index, auction clearance rates and median prices.

Investor Concentration Report: Understanding ownership concentrations is an important part of assessing risk. Areas with high investor concentrations are

typically allocated higher risk ratings due to the over-representation of a particular segment of the market. Through a series of rules and logic, CoreLogic RP Data

has flagged the likely ownership type of every residential property nationally as either owner occupied, investor owned or government owned.

Mortgage Market Trend Report: CoreLogic RP Data is in a unique position to monitor mortgage related housing market

activity. Transaction volumes, dwelling values and mortgage related valuation events all comprise our Mortgage market

trend report which provides an invaluable tool for mortgage industry benchmarking and strategy.

Granular Data and Analytics

Page 36: Housing Market Update - More4Life Financial Services · Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne Source:

In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or

completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate

arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount

paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.

Queensland Data

Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2016. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge

and agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability

in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy

laws.

South Australian Data

This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the

accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data.

New South Wales Data

Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.

Victorian Data

The State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria

will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or

relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information

supplied.

Western Australian Data

Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2015) trading as Landgate.

Australian Capital Territory Data

The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise)

be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO

Box 1908 Canberra ACT 2601.

Tasmanian Data

This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The

Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:

a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and

b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data.

Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au

Disclaimer

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Thank You

For more information about CoreLogic products and services,

please contact:

Courtney Blackburn, Client Director, Banking & Financial Services

M 0410 660 528

E [email protected]