housing market update - more4life financial services · low housing stock is keeping a lid on...
TRANSCRIPT
Housing Market Update Presented by Tim Lawless, Research Director, Asia Pacific
[email protected] | @timlawless
1
2
Residential real estate underpins Australia's wealth with the asset class now worth $6.9 trillion
Source: CoreLogic, ABS, RBA, ASX
Number of dwellings
9.7 million
Outstanding mortgage
debt
$1.62 trillion
Household wealth held
in housing
51.6%
Total sales p.a.
462,548
Gross value of
sales p.a.
$267.9 billion
3
Housing market conditions have been diverse over the past two cycles
Source: CoreLogic
Cumulative capital gains post GFC (from Jan 2009)
4
Capital gains have accelerated across Sydney and Melbourne over the second half of 2016
Source: CoreLogic
Rolling annual change in Sydney and Melbourne dwelling values
Sydney
Melbourne
Combined capitals
5
The pace of capital gains is has also accelerated across Hobart and Canberra over the past year
Source: CoreLogic
Rolling annual change in Hobart and Canberra dwelling values
Hobart
Canberra
Combined capitals
6
Capital gains across Brisbane and Adelaide remain moderate with values rising less than 5% over the past 12 months
Source: CoreLogic
Rolling annual change in Brisbane and Adelaide dwelling values
Brisbane
Adelaide Combined capitals
7
The annual pace of declines has started to ease in Darwin and Perth, however any recovery is likely to be a slow process
Source: CoreLogic
Rolling annual change in Perth and Darwin dwelling values
Perth
Darwin
Combined capitals
8 Source: CoreLogic Less
than
$200K
$200K
to
$300K
$300K
to
$400K
$400K
to
$500K
$500K
to
$600K
$600K
to
$700K
$700K
to
$800K
$800K
to
$900K
$900K
to $1m
>=$1m
Sydney house values Melbourne house values Brisbane house values
Buying a detached house under $1m in Sydney is becoming hard…
9 Source: CoreLogic
Housing affordability is set to be one of the major issues this year
10 Source: CoreLogic
The dwelling price to income ratio highlights that some cities have seen household incomes rising much slower than dwelling values.
Dwelling price to income ratio, largest capital cities
11 Source: CoreLogic
Dwelling price to income ratio’s, Sydney and Melbourne (SA2 regions)
12 Source: CoreLogic
Low mortgage rates have resulted in a substantial improvement in serviceability measures, despite strong capital gains in some cities.
% of annual household income required to service
an 80% LVR mortgage
13
First time buyers remain a relatively small component of mortgage demand
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
First home buyers as a % of all owner occupier housing
finance commitments
First home buyers as a % of all owner
occupier housing finance commitments,
Nov 2016
14
Unit approvals have well and truly peaked, except in Sydney where approved supply continues to trend higher
Source: CoreLogic
Rolling annual number of unit approvals, major capitals Unit approvals as a % of all dwelling
approvals
15
Despite a peak in approvals & commencements, the unit supply pipeline remains close to record highs
Source: CoreLogic
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Sep-76 Sep-86 Sep-96 Sep-06 Sep-16
NSW Vic Qld SA WA
Houses and units under construction, national Houses under construction by state Units under construction by state
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Sep-76 Sep-86 Sep-96 Sep-06 Sep-16
Houses
Units
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Sep-76 Sep-86 Sep-96 Sep-06 Sep-16
NSW Vic Qld SA WA
16
Brisbane and Melbourne are facing the largest uplift in unit stock over the next two years
Source: CoreLogic Settlement Risk Report
Number of units approved for construction over the next 12 and 24 months
State GCCSANew units
next 12 months
New units
next 24 months
New units next 12
months as % of
current stock
New units next 24
months as % of
current stock
VIC Greater Melbourne 33,667 93,451 5.4% 15.0%
NSW Greater Sydney 30,202 85,659 4.0% 11.4%
QLD Greater Brisbane 15,823 44,404 8.2% 23.0%
WA Greater Perth 8,659 20,662 4.0% 9.5%
SA Greater Adelaide 2,663 6,560 3.4% 8.4%
ACT Australian Capital Territory 1,848 5,676 3.0% 9.3%
NT Greater Darwin 534 1,667 2.8% 8.9%
TAS Greater Hobart 128 574 0.8% 3.4%
QLD Rest of Qld 8,347 19,298 3.3% 7.6%
NSW Rest of NSW 4,883 11,364 2.6% 6.1%
WA Rest of WA 392 3,482 1.1% 9.9%
VIC Rest of Vic. 802 2,575 1.1% 3.6%
TAS Rest of Tas. 131 458 1.1% 3.7%
NT Rest of NT 114 168 3.1% 4.6%
SA Rest of SA 15 67 0.2% 0.7%
17
But to truly understand the supply risk we need to monitor the pipeline at a smaller geographic aggregation
Source: CoreLogic
Number of units approved for construction over the next 12 and 24 months
SA3 Region
New units
next 12 months
New units
next 24 months
New units next 12
months as % of
current stock
New units next 24
months as % of
current stock
Melbourne City, Greater Melbourne, VIC 8,906 14,124 10.5% 16.7%
Brisbane Inner, Greater Brisbane, QLD 3,346 9,441 10.3% 29.0%
Sydney Inner City, Greater Sydney, NSW 2,284 7,674 2.1% 6.9%
Parramatta, Greater Sydney, NSW 1,428 6,265 4.4% 19.1%
Strathfield - Burwood - Ashfield, Greater Sydney, NSW 2,012 5,830 5.7% 16.4%
Perth City, Greater Perth, WA 1,262 5,548 3.2% 14.3%
Port Phillip, Greater Melbourne, VIC 1,511 5,266 3.2% 11.1%
Brisbane Inner - North, Greater Brisbane, QLD 2,408 5,260 11.2% 24.4%
Glen Eira, Greater Melbourne, VIC 1,207 4,910 3.7% 15.0%
Ryde - Hunters Hill, Greater Sydney, NSW 923 4,764 3.3% 17.1%
Brunswick - Coburg, Greater Melbourne, VIC 1,870 4,157 10.1% 22.4%
Canterbury, Greater Sydney, NSW 1,292 4,147 5.8% 18.7%
Whitehorse - West, Greater Melbourne, VIC 1,623 4,043 9.6% 23.8%
Holland Park - Yeronga, Greater Brisbane, QLD 1,031 4,018 8.3% 32.2%
Yarra, Greater Melbourne, VIC 1,149 3,964 4.3% 14.9%
Stonnington - West, Greater Melbourne, VIC 1,295 3,705 3.6% 10.4%
Boroondara, Greater Melbourne, VIC 1,077 3,666 3.3% 11.3%
Dandenong, Greater Melbourne, VIC 809 3,555 3.5% 15.3%
Botany, Greater Sydney, NSW 1,359 3,259 11.5% 27.6%
Darebin - North, Greater Melbourne, VIC 975 3,242 6.7% 22.3% Source: CoreLogic Settlement Risk Report
18
House and unit values are diverging in Melbourne and Brisbane, while the trends are similar across the housing types in Sydney
Source: CoreLogic
Rolling annual change in house and unit values
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane
19 Source: CoreLogic
A large proportion of Perth, Melbourne and Brisbane off-the-plan unit settlements are showing valuations that are lower than the contract price.
20 Source: CoreLogic Pain & Gain Report
The unit sector is showing a substantially higher proportion of loss making sales, except in Sydney
Proportion of loss making resales, major capitals
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth
21
Rental markets are generally soft and yields are edging to new record lows from month to month
Source: CoreLogic
Annual change in weekly rents Gross rental yields
22
Despite record low rental yields, investment demand has rebounded through the 2nd half of 2016, with investors most concentrated in NSW
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Value of housing finance commitments for investment
purposes (excl. refi)
Investors as % of the value of all housing
finance commitments (excl. refi)
23 Source: CoreLogic
Turnover: settled sales have
stabilised recently across a number
of capital cities
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Jan-97 Jan-02 Jan-07 Jan-12 Jan-17
Combined capitals
12 month avg
24
Low housing stock is keeping a lid on turnover and creating urgency amongst buyers in markets like Sydney and Melbourne
Source: CoreLogic
Sydney: a sellers market
Listing numbers finished last year at the lowest level
in more than five years.
Perth: a buyers market
Listing numbers finished last year at the highest level
in more than five years.
25
Vendors are very much in the drivers seat across Melbourne, Sydney, Hobart and Canberra
Source: CoreLogic
Average rate of vendor discounting, Combined capitals Average days on market, Combined capitals
26
Clearance rates have started the year on a strong footing
Source: CoreLogic
Week ending Feb 5, 2017
27 Source: CoreLogic
Port Hedland Council Region
HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 $311,000 163
Median price Nov 2015 $630,000 102
Median price Nov 2011 $795,000 296
Change over past year -50.6% 59.8%
Change over 5 years -60.9% -44.9%
UNITS Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 $130,000 18
Median price Nov 2015 $450,000 17
Median price Nov 2011 $707,500 44
Change over past year -71.1% 5.9%
Change over 5 years -81.6% -59.1%
Houses Units
Nov-16 -18.2%
Nov-15 -19.6%
Nov-11 -3.3%
Houses Units
Nov-16 86
Nov-15 138
Nov-11 69
Median discount
Median selling time
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16
Me
dia
n s
ellin
g p
rice
Nu
mb
er
of
sale
s (
rollin
g 3
mo
nth
)
Median house and unit price and number of sales over time
Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median unit price (RHS)
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median vendor discount
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median days on market
improving
worsening
worsening
improving
Roebourne Council Region
HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 $315,000 270
Median price Nov 2015 $415,000 169
Median price Nov 2011 $760,000 280
Change over past year -24.1% 59.8%
Change over 5 years -58.6% -3.6%
UNITS Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 $150,000 19
Median price Nov 2015 $295,000 15
Median price Nov 2011 $487,500 40
Change over past year -49.2% 26.7%
Change over 5 years -69.2% -52.5%
Houses Units
Nov-16 -13.4%
Nov-15 -11.7%
Nov-11 -4.0%
Houses Units
Nov-16 73
Nov-15 64
Nov-11 66
Median discount
Median selling time
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16
Me
dia
n s
ellin
g p
rice
Nu
mb
er
of
sale
s (
rollin
g 3
mo
nth
)
Median house and unit price and number of sales over time
Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median unit price (RHS)
-16.0%
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median vendor discount
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median days on market
improving
worsening
worsening
improving
Mackay Council Region
HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 $339,000 1,080
Median price Nov 2015 $368,000 1,089
Median price Nov 2011 $415,000 1,785
Change over past year -7.9% -0.8%
Change over 5 years -18.3% -39.5%
UNITS Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 $220,000 147
Median price Nov 2015 $285,000 169
Median price Nov 2011 $325,000 305
Change over past year -22.8% -13.0%
Change over 5 years -32.3% -51.8%
Houses Units
Nov-16 -10.9% -15.4%
Nov-15 -10.1% -11.4%
Nov-11 -5.5% -6.4%
Houses Units
Nov-16 76 131
Nov-15 81 110
Nov-11 66 72
Median discount
Median selling time
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16
Me
dia
n s
ellin
g p
ric
e
Nu
mb
er
of
sa
les
(ro
llin
g 3
mo
nth
)
Median house and unit price and number of sales over time
Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median unit price (RHS)
-18.0%
-16.0%
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median vendor discount
Houses Units
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median days on market
Houses Units
improving
worsening
worsening
improving
Isaac Council Region
HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 $125,000 128
Median price Nov 2015 $200,000 102
Median price Nov 2011 $485,000 462
Change over past year -37.5% 25.5%
Change over 5 years -74.2% -72.3%
UNITS Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 na 7
Median price Nov 2015 na 4
Median price Nov 2011 $151,800 124
Change over past year na na
Change over 5 years na na
Houses Units
Nov-16 -16.7%
Nov-15 -22.8%
Nov-11 -3.1%
Houses Units
Nov-16 95
Nov-15 98
Nov-11 35
Median discount
Median selling time
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16
Me
dia
n s
ellin
g p
ric
e
Nu
mb
er
of
sa
les
(ro
llin
g 3
mo
nth
)
Median house and unit price and number of sales over time
Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS)
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median vendor discount
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median days on market
improving
worsening
worsening
improving
Mining regions may be moving through the trough of their spectacular downturn, but any recovery to previous peaks will take many years.
28 Source: CoreLogic
Noosa Council Region
HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 $595,000 1,293
Median price Nov 2015 $579,000 1,324
Median price Nov 2011 $525,000 706
Change over past year 2.8% -2.3%
Change over 5 years 13.3% 83.1%
UNITS Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 $491,000 887
Median price Nov 2015 $420,000 839
Median price Nov 2011 $417,500 457
Change over past year 16.9% 5.7%
Change over 5 years 17.6% 94.1%
Houses Units
Nov-16 -5.2% -5.6%
Nov-15 -4.9% -5.5%
Nov-11 -10.9% -7.7%
Houses Units
Nov-16 70 72
Nov-15 74 87
Nov-11 116 134
Median discount
Median selling time
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16
Me
dia
n s
ellin
g p
ric
e
Nu
mb
er
of
sa
les
(ro
llin
g 3
mo
nth
)
Median house and unit price and number of sales over time
Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median unit price (RHS)
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median vendor discount
Houses Units
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median days on market
Houses Units
improving
worsening
worsening
improving
Gold Coast Council Region
HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 $595,000 8,253
Median price Nov 2015 $560,000 8,536
Median price Nov 2011 $495,000 4,876
Change over past year 6.3% -3.3%
Change over 5 years 20.2% 69.3%
UNITS Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 $399,000 11,756
Median price Nov 2015 $376,000 12,471
Median price Nov 2011 $365,000 6,172
Change over past year 6.1% -5.7%
Change over 5 years 9.3% 90.5%
Houses Units
Nov-16 -4.2% -4.5%
Nov-15 -4.4% -5.3%
Nov-11 -9.6% -7.7%
Houses Units
Nov-16 36 53
Nov-15 39 57
Nov-11 90 107
Median discount
Median selling time
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16
Me
dia
n s
ellin
g p
ric
e
Nu
mb
er
of
sa
les
(ro
llin
g 3
mo
nth
)
Median house and unit price and number of sales over time
Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median unit price (RHS)
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median vendor discount
Houses Units
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median days on market
Houses Units
improving
worsening
worsening
improving
Byron Council Region
HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 $790,000 706
Median price Nov 2015 $720,000 657
Median price Nov 2011 $590,000 384
Change over past year 9.7% 7.5%
Change over 5 years 33.9% 83.9%
UNITS Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 $612,000 231
Median price Nov 2015 $520,000 271
Median price Nov 2011 $425,000 108
Change over past year 17.7% -14.8%
Change over 5 years 44.0% 113.9%
Houses Units
Nov-16 -4.3%
Nov-15 -4.5%
Nov-11 -11.2%
Houses Units
Nov-16 65
Nov-15 64
Nov-11 129
Median discount
Median selling time
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16
Me
dia
n s
ellin
g p
rice
Nu
mb
er
of
sale
s (
rollin
g 3
mo
nth
)
Median house and unit price and number of sales over time
Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median unit price (RHS)
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median vendor discount
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median days on market
improving
worsening
worsening
improving
Surf Coast Council Region
HOUSES Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 $655,000 671
Median price Nov 2015 $630,000 690
Median price Nov 2011 $575,000 561
Change over past year 4.0% -2.8%
Change over 5 years 13.9% 19.6%
UNITS Median price Num sales (year)
Median price Nov 2016 $500,000 124
Median price Nov 2015 $497,500 133
Median price Nov 2011 $476,250 136
Change over past year 0.5% -6.8%
Change over 5 years 5.0% -8.8%
Houses Units
Nov-16 -3.2%
Nov-15 -3.7%
Nov-11 -4.2%
Houses Units
Nov-16 50
Nov-15 58
Nov-11 76
Median discount
Median selling time
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Nov 96 Nov 98 Nov 00 Nov 02 Nov 04 Nov 06 Nov 08 Nov 10 Nov 12 Nov 14 Nov 16
Me
dia
n s
ellin
g p
rice
Nu
mb
er
of
sale
s (
rollin
g 3
mo
nth
)
Median house and unit price and number of sales over time
Number of sales (rolling 3 months) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Median unit price (RHS)
-9.0%
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median vendor discount
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
Median days on market
improving
worsening
worsening
improving
Lifestyle and tourism based regions are showing a healthy recovery after their post GFC slump.
29
Housing demand: Victoria is leading the way in terms of the rate of population growth
Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA
1.4%
2.1%
1.4%
0.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
1.3%
1.4%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
NSW
VIC
QLD
SA
WA
TAS
NT
ACT
AUST
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Jun-86 Jun-96 Jun-06 Jun-16
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Jun-86 Jun-96 Jun-06 Jun-16
020,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000
Jun-86 Jun-91 Jun-96 Jun-01 Jun-06 Jun-11 Jun-16
Quarterly change in national population
Net overseas migration Natural increase Annual change in population
30
Lenders are generally requiring larger deposits and charging a premium on investor mortgages
Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA
Loan to valuation ratio bands for new mortgages Average standard variable mortgage rates, owner
occupier v investor rates
31
Interstate migration into Queensland is once again rising, creating additional housing demand
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
32
What are the forecasts saying? • Gradual slowdown in Sydney and Melbourne markets with a slight correction in Sydney but
extended period of modest declines in Melbourne. • Sustainable capital gains across Brisbane of 3-6% per annum. • Adelaide to underperform inflation, but remain in positive nominal growth. • A return to positive growth in Perth & Darwin by mid 2018. • Hobart to return to a more sedate growth position by 2018.
Source: CoreLogic/Moodys Analytics
2017 2018 2019
ACT 5.0% 2.9% 3.0%
Adelaide 2.8% 1.3% 1.1%
Brisbane 3.0% 4.7% 5.6%
Darwin -5.8% 2.8% 7.6%
Hobart 3.7% 1.2% 1.2%
Melbourne 2.4% -2.7% -2.6%
Perth -4.9% 3.1% 7.7%
Sydney 6.0% 0.0% -0.4%
Forecast annual change in dwelling values CoreLogic/Moodys Analytics forecast model
Based on September 2016 forecast series, year on year change
33
Outlook for 2017
• The debate around housing affordability is likely to gather pace, especially if growth in
dwelling values continues to outpace income growth and mortgage rates edge higher.
• Settlement risk is likely to become more evident as the significant number of off-the-plan unit
sales transition to completion and settlement.
• A widening divergence in the rate of growth for houses and units.
• Potential for a finance shock at the time of settlement for off-the-plan buyers.
• Developers may find achieving pre-sale targets very challenging.
• The pace of capital gains in Sydney and Melbourne is likely to slow due to affordability
constraints, higher supply and potentially a deflection of investor demand towards other cities.
• Perth and Darwin dwelling values are likely to find a floor, but any recovery will be slow and
dependent on an improvement in economic conditions.
• If lending for investment purposes continues at the current pace, we may see a new round of
policy initiatives that may cool investor demand.
34
About Us
Source: CoreLogic
CoreLogic Australia is a wholly owned subsidiary of CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), which is the largest property data and
analytics company in the world. CoreLogic provides property information, analytics and services across Australia, New
Zealand and Asia, and recently expanded its service offering through the purchase of project activity and building cost
information provider Cordell. With Australia’s most comprehensive property databases, the company’s combined data
offering is derived from public, contributory and proprietary sources and includes over 500 million decision points
spanning over three decades of collection, providing detailed coverage of property and other encumbrances such as
tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information.
With over 20,000 customers and 150,000 end users, CoreLogic is the leading provider of property data, analytics and
related services to consumers, investors, real estate, mortgage, finance, banking, building services, insurance,
developers, wealth management and government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics,
workflow technology, advisory and geo spatial services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth
opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. CoreLogic employs over 650 people across Australia and in New
Zealand. For more information call 1300 734 318 or visit www.corelogic.com.au
CoreLogic produces an advanced suite of housing market analytics that provides key insights for understanding housing market conditions at a granular geographic level. Granular data is often used for
portfolio analysis and benchmarking, risk assessments and understanding development feasibility and market sizing. It gives industry professionals valuable modules which provide essential analytics and
insights for decision making and strategy formation within the residential property asset class. We can tailor reports to suit your business requirements.
Call us on 1300 734 318 or email us at [email protected] or visit us at www.corelogic.com.au
Market Scorecard: Monitor and measure market share and performance of real estate agents at an individual office or a Franchise brand level across Australia.
Identify the competing brands and independents at a suburb, postcode, user defined territory and State level. Easily locate growth opportunities and market
hotspots, and view the performance of the established offices in these new areas of interest.
Market Trends: Detailed housing market indicators down to the suburb level, with data in time series or snapshot and segmented across houses, units and land.
The Market Trends data includes key housing market metrics such as median prices, median values, transaction volumes, rental statistics, vendor metrics such as
average selling time and vendor discounting rates.
CoreLogic RP Data Indices: The suite of CoreLogic RP Data Indices range from simple market measurements such as
median prices through to repeat sales indices and our flagship hedonic home value indices. The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic index has been specifically designed
to track the value of a portfolio of properties over time and is relied upon by Australian regulators and industry as the most up to date and accurate measurement of
housing market performance.
Economist Pack: A suite of indices and indicators designed specifically for Australian economic commentators who require the most up to date and detailed view
of housing market conditions. The economist pack includes the CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic indices for capital cities and ‘rest of state’ indices, the stratified hedonic
index, hedonic total return index, auction clearance rates and median prices.
Investor Concentration Report: Understanding ownership concentrations is an important part of assessing risk. Areas with high investor concentrations are
typically allocated higher risk ratings due to the over-representation of a particular segment of the market. Through a series of rules and logic, CoreLogic RP Data
has flagged the likely ownership type of every residential property nationally as either owner occupied, investor owned or government owned.
Mortgage Market Trend Report: CoreLogic RP Data is in a unique position to monitor mortgage related housing market
activity. Transaction volumes, dwelling values and mortgage related valuation events all comprise our Mortgage market
trend report which provides an invaluable tool for mortgage industry benchmarking and strategy.
Granular Data and Analytics
In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or
completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate
arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount
paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.
Queensland Data
Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2016. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge
and agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability
in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy
laws.
South Australian Data
This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the
accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data.
New South Wales Data
Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.
Victorian Data
The State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria
will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or
relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information
supplied.
Western Australian Data
Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2015) trading as Landgate.
Australian Capital Territory Data
The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise)
be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO
Box 1908 Canberra ACT 2601.
Tasmanian Data
This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The
Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:
a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and
b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data.
Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au
Disclaimer
Thank You
For more information about CoreLogic products and services,
please contact:
Courtney Blackburn, Client Director, Banking & Financial Services
M 0410 660 528