housing market update. 2 © hometrack 2013 specialist insight on residential property value, risk...
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Housing Market Update
2© Hometrack 2013
Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity
Profile of house price ‘recovery’ for selected cities
Source: Hometrack
City definitions are based on Primary Urban Area definitions from State of the English Cities Report , 2005
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% relative to 2007 peak
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> The recovery in owner occupied capital values varies widely reflecting largely demand side factors.
> Chart shows profile of recovery relative to 2007 peak and recent trough for selected cities (based on PUAs)
> Nationally, 86% of housing markets are still below 2007 peak levels. 49% markets 10% or more off peak levels.
London
Manchester
Bolton
Reading
RochdaleWigan
Bristol
3© Hometrack 2013
Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity
Private house building delivery – Greater Manchester
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Private flats
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> New housing starts declined over downturn.
> Shift from flats to family housing – flats fallen from 62%+ starts in 2004 to 13% in 2013.
> Builders focused on lower working capital and buyers with existing equity and access to finance.
> Public housing starts higher in 2013 than anytime in last decade.
Source: Hometrack analysis of NHBC data
Aspiration/Economics/credit
4© Hometrack 2013
Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity
Private house building capacity – Greater Manchester
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No active builders
Ave. starts
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> Red line shows the total number of builders who started homes for developments of any size across GM.
> Average number of private housing starts per builders per annum has remained relatively static.
> Today around two thirds fewer builders are developing than in 2005.
Source: Hometrack analysis of NHBC data
5© Hometrack 2013
Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity
House prices relative to 2007 peak
Source: Hometrack
6© Hometrack 2013
Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity
£psf sales values – impact on development viability
Source: Hometrack
7© Hometrack 2013
Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity
Wigan Prices Over Time
8© Hometrack 2013
Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity
Wigan Rents Over Time
9© Hometrack 2013
Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity
Income to rent and buy outright (2 bed property)
Source: Hometrack
10© Hometrack 2013
Specialist insight on residential property value, risk and opportunity
Income required to access housing – Wigan (2 bed)
Source: Hometrack calculations