household projections in the south east regional plan, and update on the eip
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Robin Edwards Hampshire County Council and Chairman of the Demography Sub Group, South East England Regional Assembly. Household projections in the South East Regional Plan, and update on the EiP. Content. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Robin EdwardsHampshire County Council
and Chairman of the Demography Sub Group, South East England Regional
Assembly
Household projections in the South East Regional Plan, and
update on the EiP
Content
1) Household Projections in the preparation of the Regional Spatial Strategy for the South East Region
2) Regional Assembly’s response to the Official Household Projections at the EiP
3) House price inflation and housing supply
Timetable for Preparation of RSS• Mid 2003 - technical work commenced• April 2004 - Spring debates with stakeholders on policy
options• Winter 2004-05 - consultation with South East region
residents on draft policies and proposals• Mid 2005 - Publication of Draft Plan• Autumn 2005 - consultation with stakeholders on Draft
Plan• Winter 2005/2006 - Analysis of comments and
amendments to Plan• April 2006 - Submission of Final Plan• Summer 2006 - Submission of Responses to the South
East Region Spatial Strategy• November 2006 - Examination in Public commences
Projections Timetable• Mid 2003 - official subnational population
projections and household projections 1996 based• April 2004 - draft 2002 based subnational
population projections published, and 2001 Census results available
• Autumn 2004 - population and household projections required for inclusion in plan for consultation with S.E. region residents
• Late 2005/early 2006 - timescale for official 2003 based household projections
• Not possible to wait for official projections. Therefore, Regional Assembly Demography sub group chairman commissioned to produce updated household projections taking account of most recent data
Data Relative to 1996 based Subnational Population
projections, draft 2002-based projections took account of:
• 2001 Census base population• GAD 2002 based fertility and mortality rate projections• increased international net in migration• unattributable population change
2001 Census data allowed recalibration of:• marital status structure• household composition and household representative
rates
Results
Source Period H/Hold Change Dwellings Change p.a.DETR 1996 -based 1996-2021 835,000 34,500
RPG 9 2001-2021 N/A 28,000
Reg. Assem. 2002 -based2002-2027 847,000 35,000
DCLG 2003 -based 2001-2026 890,000 36,800
2006-2026 N/A 32,000
2006-2026 N/A 28,000
2006-2026 N/A 25,000
Results
Regional Assembly Consultation with Residents, Winter 2004/05
Source Period H/Hold Change Dwellings Change p.a.DETR 1996 -based 1996-2021 835,000 34,500
RPG 9 2001-2021 N/A 28,000
Reg. Assem. 2002 -based 2002-2027 847,000 35,000
DCLG 2003 -based 2001-2026 890,000 36,800
2006-2026 N/A 32,000
2006-2026 N/A 28,000
2006-2026 N/A 25,000
Regional Assembly Consultation with Residents, Winter 2004/05
Start of EiP
Submitted Plan April 200628,900 Dwellings per annum 2006
to 2026
DCLG Household Projections March 2006
38,000 dwellings per annum 2006 to 2026
Criticisms levelled at Housing Proposals in the RSS for the South
East• Dwellings proposals should be
increased to be consistent with the official household projections
• There was already a housing crisis in the South East. Therefore dwellings proposals should exceed number required to satisfy official household projections
Regional Assembly EiP response to Household Projections issue
• 1. Zero Net Migration Projection 2006 to 2026 = 20,000 dwellings per annum
• 2. 28,900 dwellings = 8,600 in migrant h/holds per annum 19,000 net in migrants)
5,700 and 12,500 if backlog cleared within first 10 years)
• Therefore dwellings in excess of 28,900 not required to satisfy locally generated need, and any additions proposed would only draw in additional in migrants
Regional Assembly EiP response to Household Projections issue (cont)
• 3. 2003 based household projections - not an assessment of housing need - ephemeral and subject to revision - 2004-based Subnational population projections - 2005 divorce rate - impact on one person households (change in one person
households headed by divorced people 2001 to 2021 84,100 (1996 based), 211,300 (2003 based)
- 1996 based household rep rates over projected one person households headed by males in 2001 by 16,000
• No requirement to slavishly follow household projections, and issues raised above indicate it would be very unwise to do so
Regional Assembly response to charge of "Housing crisis" in South
East
Indicators of Housing crisis:• overcrowding• sharing households• concealed households• homeless households• reduction in household formation
rates
OvercrowdingHouseholds over One Person per Room
South East Region1991 49,643 1.7
2001 43,015 1.3
Sources: 1991 Census, Table 42 & 2001 Census, Table 53
N.B. Censuses do not provide information on bedroom standard
Households Below Bedroom Standard
3 Year Av. %2001 60 1.812002 58 1.772003 56 1.732004 55 1.68
Source: Survey of English Housing
SurveysNorth East 1.7North West 2.1Yorkshire and the Humber 1.4East Midlands 1.6West Midlands 2.7East 1.6London 6.6South East 1.8South West 1.6
Source: Survey of English Housing 2005-06 Table 9
All Regions
Mean percentages from 2003-04 to 2005-06
South East Region
Sharing
No. %1991 32,247 1.1
2001 11,037 0.3
Sources: 1991 Census, Table 41. 2001 Census Table 58
3 Year Av. %2001 35 1.062002 29 0.872003 19 0.57
Source: Survey of English Housing
Households not in Self Contained Accom South East Region
Households not in Self Contained Accom South East Region
SharingHouseholds not in Self Contained Accommodation
North East 0.2
North West 0.7
Yorkshire and the Humber
0.5
East Midlands 0.6
West Midlands 0.6
East 0.6
London 2.6
South East 0.6
South West 1.0
All Regions 2003-04 Surveys
Source: Survey of English Housing Table S136
Number of Concealed FamiliesSouth East Region
% of all families
1991 34,000 1.6
2001 23,063 1.0
Sources: 1991 Census Table 88; 2001 Census Table 11N.B Survey of English Housing does not provide information under this definition
Homelessness - South East Region
0
20
40
60
80
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120
140
160Q
1Q
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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Hun
dred
s
Years
No
. of h
ho
lds
homeless hholds inpriority Need
hholds in temporaryaccommodation
Source: CLG P1E Homelessness returns
Official Projections of Average Household Size
South East Region
Year 2001
1989-based 2.36
1992-based 2.34
1996-based 2.35
2001 Census 2.36
2001 Census (adjusted)
2.38
ChartSales through Right to Buy compared with RSL and Dwelling completions, 1981-2005 - England
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
1981
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2004
2005
Year
Nu
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Sales through Right toBuy
RSL and LA dwelling completions
House Price Inflation and Housing Supply
• Barker Review of Housing Supply - high house price inflation in the UK results from a shortfall in supply
• Martin Weale, Director of NIESR - "(house prices in the UK) are of the order of 20 per cent higher than can be explained by the interaction of supply and demand". National Institute Economic Review (Jan 2006)
Barker Review failed to take account of:• 1. Owner occupiers perception of housing as an
investment, not just a place to live• 2. Impact of the Buy to Let market
Housing as an Investment• Do you agree or disagree with the statement:• "Owning your own home is a good long term
investment"• Agree - 96 per cent• Survey of English Housing 2004-05.• People are prepared to borrow to the maximum
available to them, in the expectation of making a capital gain
• Mechanisms and agencies involved: - income multiples - repayment periods - interest rates - estate agencies
Buy to Let
Number of Buy to Let Mortgages
Value of Buy to Let Mortgages £m
1999 73,200 5,400
2005 701,900 73,400
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders, July 2006
Household change by tenure
Owner Occupied
Social Rented
Private Rented
All Tenures
1995-2000
800 -316 78 562
2000-2005
379 -274 368 473
England
South East Region2000-
200543 -20 40 62
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey (DCLG Table S101)
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey (DCLG Table S135)