house prices resilience in paris christian tutin, laburba/upec (email: [email protected])...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
House prices resilience in ParisChristian Tutin, Lab’Urba/UPEC(email: [email protected])
Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda : London, Paris and Berlin
Second Seminar: 22nd February, 2013Institut d’Urbanisme de Paris, Université de Paris Est Créteil (UPEC)
![Page 2: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Introduction:
![Page 3: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
1. What happened to Paris real estate ?1.1 From buyoancy to resilience
![Page 4: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Affordability 1Sharp contrast between slow but continuous rise of wages and the strong and accelerating rise in house pricesNot only during the last boom (graph below)But in the long run : 1 sq m of Paris flat = 350 hours of minimal wage in 1984, jumped to 590 in 1990, and 850 hours in 2012.
![Page 5: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Affordability 2Annual Price to Income ratio/1965 value
![Page 6: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
1-2 Specificities of the last price boom
• Not the mere repetition of the 80’s– Not the office market, but the housing market– Not the city core
• Unprecedented strength and lenght• Widespread and uniform
![Page 7: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
1-3 A cumulative disequilibrium dynamics
Not specific to Paris (as in the 80’s – metropolization process)
An extreme case of a more general process (observed at all levels of the urban hierarchy)
Consisting in two parallel « waves »:→ at the bottom of the market : a credit-led boom• Credit flooded demand from low income
households• Historically low interest rates, increased duration
of loans
![Page 10: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
→ at the top of the market: an asset-led boom• Upper middle class groups investing first belt
municipalities• Price rises made possible for buyers-sellers to
buy larger homes (or higher quality) in slightly less valued areas
• + low interest rates → no (or very limited) liquidity constraint for previous home owners (sellers/buyers)
![Page 11: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
No « well behaved » demand curvePrice-volume correlation: demand not decreasing with prices
![Page 13: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
+ Lower middle class groups flight from deprived neighborhoods → strong pressure on intermediate residential spaces- While low income households relegated in more and more remote areas → urban sprawl
+ Low construction rates in intermediate spaces → quantitative rationing for intermediate income groups → increased pressure on existing homes
→ gentrification process in first belt municipalitiesIntra-urban (spatial content) dimension of the boom
![Page 14: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
2. The spatial dimension of the market2.1 The changing geography of house price movesThree periods in the last three decades:• 80’s and first half of the 90’s: the « beaux quartiers » as
pilots• 1997-2007: first belt municipalities at the forefront ;
gentrification of the former working-class suburbs• Post financial crisis : back to the 80’s ; central Paris
resilience– Previous tendancy still at work– More and more asset-led → no impact of unemployment
• And now ?– This time is the end ?
![Page 15: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
2.2 Gentrification
•
![Page 16: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Gentrification
![Page 17: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Gentrification
![Page 18: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
3 Paris, Berlin and LondonFrance and the UK:
![Page 19: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Paris and London: London’s exceptionnality greaterBut a common syndroma: non-affordability as the price of inequalities
![Page 20: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Berlin: Welcome to the club?
House price change in Germany% change over a year earlier
![Page 21: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: House prices resilience in Paris Christian Tutin, LabUrba/UPEC (email: christian.tutin@u-pec.fr) Governing Metropolitan Regions with a Localist Agenda](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516cc25550346b5748b45f6/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Thanks for attention