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House No. 423-A, St. No. 1, F-11/1, Islamabad. Email: [email protected]

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Monthly Security Assessment Report – July 2015 1

CMC/PICSS, Islamabad Copyright @ 2015. All Rights Reserved.

List of Acronyms

AJK Azad Jammu & Kashmir

Arst Arrested by Security Forces

C Civilian

CBA Cross Border Attack

FATA Federally Administrated Tribal Areas

GB Gilgit-Baltistan

GrA Grenade Attack

IED Improvised Explosive Device or Handmade bombs

ICT Islamabad Capital Territory

KP, KPK Khyber Pakhtonkhwa

K Kidnapping

KK Kidnapping and Killing

Kdnp Kidnappings by militants

M Militant

MA Militant Assault

MAs Militant Attacks

MC Militant Clash

MrS Mortar Shelling

Nos Number of incidents

PGR, RZ Razakar (Pro government tribal militias)

RA Rocket Attack

SFAs Security Forces Actions

SFP Security Forces Personnel

SA Suicide Attack

TK Targeted Killing



Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................... 4

2. Overall Violence ........................................................................................................................................ 6

2.1. Militant Activities .................................................................................................................................. 7

2.2. Security Forces Actions ......................................................................................................................... 8

3. Significant development of the Month ...................................................................................................... 9

3.1. India-Pakistan Relations – Latest Developments................................................................................... 9

3.1.1. Meeting of the Two Premiers ............................................................................................................ 9

3.1.2. Gurdaspur Attack and India Proposing Meeting of NSAs ............................................................... 11

3.2. Karachi Operation, Rangers’ Stay in Karachi Extended for a Month ................................................. 12

3.3. MQM – “Out of Frying Pan into Fire” ................................................................................................ 13

3.4. Death of Leaders: Changing Landscape of Militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan ............................ 13

4. Security Situation in Baluchistan ............................................................................................................. 16

5. Security Situation in FATA ..................................................................................................................... 17

6. Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtoonkha (KP) ..................................................................................... 18

7. Security Situation in Punjab .................................................................................................................... 20

8. Security Situation in Sindh ...................................................................................................................... 21

9. Security situation in AJ&K, GB and ICT ................................................................................................ 22

10. Key Points: ........................................................................................................................................... 22



List of Tables

Table 1: Category-Wise Break–Up of SFAs and MAs (July 2015) .................................................................. 6

Table 2: Province-Wise detail of SFAs and MAs (July 2015) .............................................................................. 6

Table 3: Province wise detail of Militant Activities (July 2015) ......................................................................... 7

Table 4: Nature/ Type of Militant Attacks (July 2015) ....................................................................................... 8

Table 5: Province-wise breakup of security forces actions (July 2015) ............................................................. 9

Table 6: District wise detail of militant activities in Baluchistan (July 2015) ................................................... 16

Table 7: Type of Militant Attacks in Baluchistan (July 2015) ........................................................................... 17

Table 8: Agency wise break up of Militant Activities – FATA (July 2015) ................................................... 18

Table 9: Type of Militant Attacks in FATA (July 2015) ................................................................................. 18

Table 10: District wise spread of Militant Attacks in KP (July 2015) ............................................................. 19

Table 11: Type of Militant Attacks in KP (July 2015) .................................................................................... 19

Table 12: District-Wise Breakup of MAs in Punjab (July 2015) ........................................................................ 20

Table 13: Types of MAs in Punjab (July 2015) ................................................................................................. 20

Table 14: District-Wise Breakup of MAs in Sindh (July 2015) .......................................................................... 21

Table 15: Types of MAs in Sindh (July 2015).................................................................................................... 21

List of Figures

Figure 1: Geographical Spread of SFAs and MAs (July 2015) ............................................................................ 6

Figure 2: Geographical distribution of MAs & their impact (July 2015) ............................................................ 7

Figure 3: Type of Attacks– Impact (July 2015) ................................................................................................... 8

Figure 4: Month Wise Comparison of Militant Activities in Baluchistan ......................................................... 17

Figure 5: Month-wise comparison of MAs in FATA ...................................................................................... 18

Figure 6: Monthly Comparison of Militant Activities in KP ........................................................................... 19

Figure 7: Month-wise comparison of MAs in Punjab ...................................................................................... 20

Figure 8: Month-wise comparison of MAs in Sindh ......................................................................................... 21



1. Executive Summary

An improvement in security situation in the country has been witnessed in July. Although

the month witnessed almost same number of overall incidents including militant attacks and

security forces operations as compared to previous month but number of deaths and injuries have

gone down. Reduction in the militant activities, which was also possible due to increased vigilance

from security forces, indicate reduction in militant’s capabilities to launch organized attacks.

Balochistan continued to witness the highest number of militants’ attacks though these attacks in

the province were corporately less lethal. Improvement in security situation, visible through

decreased number of militant attacks/ resultant deaths, has been witnessed across all the regions

including Balochistan, FATA, KPK, and Sindh.

Security forces also carried almost as many operations as were conducted last month but

resultant deaths from these operations were far less as compared to last month suggesting that

forces also kept their focus on intelligence based operations. Moreover, a trend has also been

witnessed wherein forces have made efforts to eliminate or capture middle and top tier leadership

of various militant organizations, which could only be possible through enhanced intelligence

gather and smooth execution of operations. Security forces have also made an effort to curb

finances of the militants as during the month of Ramadan an effort was seen to restrict various

outfits (including those political parties who are considered to be backing violent groups) to collect

donations (in the form of fitrana, zakat, etc).

On India-Pakistan front, some ice has melted and both the prime ministers met in Russia on

the sidelines of the SCO submit where they have decided to open some sort of negotiations

including meeting of national security advisors to discuss concerns related to terrorism in addition

to contacts between the two countries at military level including meeting of heads of border forces

as well as interaction with DGMOs. Both the premiers had also agreed to open back-channel talks.

No specific mention of Kashmir issue and Pakistan concerns on RAW’s involvement in Pakistan was

criticized by not only political parties in Pakistan but also by Hurriat leadership in Indian Held

Kashmir. Later, in the month, the incident of Gurdaspur attack has once again brought to fore Indian

old practice of putting blame on Pakistan in their knee-jerk reaction. Lately, India has proposed

meeting in New Delhi of the two national security advisors on 23 August to which Pakistan is likely

to respond positively.

MQM leadership in London continues to compound problems for itself as well as for the

party as it had not only written a letter to UN Secretary General but also asked its workers to protest



in front of UN, NATO and White House and invited them to come see prosecution of MQM.

Moreover, MQM chief has also asked India to intervene to safe muhajirs. This tirade from MQM

chief is bound to increase tension between the party and military establishment. Political parties

have also criticized MQM chief for his latest statements.

The death of Mullah Omar (or the news of his death) has opened plethora of problem not

only for Afghan Taliban but also put serious question mark on peace talks between Afghan

government and Afghan Taliban. Although Mullah Mansoor has been elected as new emir of Afghan

Taliban, keeping the organization united will be major challenge for him as questions on his election,

peace talks, etc have already been aired.

On Pakistan front, killing of Malik Ishaq is a significant development. Although the

mysterious killing of Mr Ishaq is likely to exploited by the militant outfit or some other elements,

the killing itself is a serious blow to the outfit as some other prominent leaders of the outfit were

also killed. Reportedly, Al-Qaeda chief identified as Abdali was also killed in Lahore in addition to

killing of chief of the Balochistan chapter of outlawed Jaish-ul-Islam Mehmood-ur-Rehman. From

security point of view, elimination of these leaders would definitely help improve security situation

in the country in addition to sending a strong signal from the security forces to various militant

outfits including other sectarian groups that across the border action should be expected.



2. Overall Violence

July witnessed almost same number of overall incidents (anti state violent actions by

militants and counter-insurgency operations by the state) as compared to previous month(s) but

number of deaths and injuries have gone down, sharply suggesting militants reduced capabilities to

launch more organize attacks, however, their capabilities of launching attacks in future have not

completely diminished. In 141 overall violent incidents, at least 149 people were killed including 28

SFPs, 99 militants and 22 civilians while 68 others were injured including 33 SFPs, five militants and

30 civilians. Breakup of overall violence is given in Table-1, detailed break-up of violence in Table-2

and geographical spread/ impact of violence is given in Figure-1.

Table 1: Category-Wise Break–Up of SFAs and MAs (July 2015)

Category Nos Killed Injured

Arst Kdnp SFP PGR M C Total SFP PGR M C Total

SFAs 89 2 0 51 0 53 6 0 4 0 10 337 0

MAs 52 26 0 48 22 96 27 0 1 30 58 6 0

Total 141 28 0 99 22 149 33 0 5 30 68 343 0

Figure 1: Geographical Spread of SFAs and MAs (July 2015)

Table 2: Province-Wise detail of SFAs and MAs (July 2015)

Region Nos Killed Injured


Baluchistan 62 7 0 25 16 48 3 0 5 24 32 167 0

FATA 18 13 0 40 3 56 18 0 0 3 21 4 0

KPK 33 7 0 7 2 16 1 0 0 3 4 93 0

Punjab 15 1 0 18 0 19 11 0 0 0 11 59 0

Sindh 13 0 0 9 1 10 0 0 0 0 0 20 0

Total 141 28 0 99 22 149 33 0 5 30 68 343 0



2.1. Militant Activities

July witnessed further reduction of militant activities across the country. In 52 militant

activities, 96 people were killed including 26 SFPs, 48 militants and 22 civilians while 58 others were

injured including 27 SFPs, one militant and 30 civilians. Balochistan continued to witness the highest

number of militants’ attacks though these attacks in the province were not that lethal. Detailed

break up of militant activities across geographical regions is given in Table-3, type of attacks in

Table-4, geographical impact of militant activities in Figure-2 and impact with reference to attack

type is given in Figure-3.

Figure 2: Geographical distribution of MAs & their impact (July 2015)

Table 3: Province wise detail of Militant Activities (July 2015)


Arst Kdnp SFP PGR M C Tot SFP PGR M C Total

Baluchistan 21 7 0 1 16 24 0 0 1 24 25 0 0

FATA 13 13 0 25 3 41 18 0 0 3 21 3 0

KPK 13 6 0 6 2 14 1 0 0 3 4 0 0

Punjab 2 0 0 16 0 16 8 0 0 0 8 0 0

Sindh 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 3

Total 52 26 0 48 22 96 27 0 1 30 58 6 0



Figure 3: Type of Attacks– Impact (July 2015)

Table 4: Nature/ Type of Militant Attacks (July 2015)

Type Nos Killed Injured


GrA 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 0

IED 17 6 0 12 1 19 10 0 0 27 37 0 0

KK 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MA 15 15 0 36 4 55 17 0 1 1 19 0 0

RA 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SA 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TK 14 4 0 0 15 19 0 0 0 0 0 3 0

Total 52 26 0 48 22 96 27 0 1 30 58 6 0

2.2. Security Forces Actions

Although security forces have conducted almost as many actions/ operations as were

conducted in the previous month but the deaths and injuries resulting from these operations have

gone down substantially. Against previous month’s focus on conducted airstrikes in FATA and

eliminating militants, this month security forces remained focused on conducting intelligence based

operations with thrust being in Balochistan while no major offensive was witnessed in FATA.

Detailed break up of security forces actions is given in Table-5. During the month, security forces

eliminated some prominent militant leaders belonging to various militant outfits (discussed in

Section-3 under the heading “Significant Developments of the Month”).

Pakistan Army continues to back China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Army Chief Gen Shareef

visited Panjgur and Turbat in Balochistan where he inspected the under-construction road network

of the project being constructed by Army’s Frontier Works Organization (FWO). He said that



Pakistan Army is “acutely aware” of the campaign by “rivals” against the China-Pakistan Economic

Corridor (CPEC) project and that "CPEC and Gwadar Port will be built and developed as one of the

most strategic deep sea ports in the region at all costs." He vowed that the armed forces are

prepared to "pay any price to turn this long cherished dream into a reality".

Since the month of Ramadan has always been the focus of militant enterprise to collect

revenues from general masses in the form of donations, Zakat and Fitrana. Money collected during

Ramadan is used by the militants throughout the year and make a major chunk of their total

revenues. This time government across the provinces, especially in Balochistan and Sindh, made

efforts to stop militant outfits to collect such donations. Provincial government in Balochistan

issued specific orders to all administrative heads of the respective districts to keep a constant check

on banned outfits to collect any donations/money from masses. In Sindh, Pakistan Rangers did such

effort and even went to raid MQM headquarters Nine-Zero, once again, for nabbing those who

were allegedly involved in collecting donations in addition to making some arrests of party workers

said to be involved in collecting money, which the MQM claimed was for its charity wing “Khidmat-

e-Khalq Foundation (KKF)”. Regardless of the seriousness of the purpose, stopping such donations

to militant outfits is a gigantic task and can only be fully accomplished through active support from

general masses for which awareness among the public is a prerequisite.

Table 5: Province-wise breakup of security forces actions (July 2015)


Arst SFP PGR M C Total SFP PGR M C Total

Baluchistan 41 0 0 24 0 24 3 0 4 0 7 167

FATA 5 0 0 15 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 1

KPK 20 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 93

Punjab 13 1 0 2 0 3 3 0 0 0 3 59

Sindh 10 0 0 9 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 17

Total 89 2 0 51 0 53 6 0 4 0 10 337

3. Significant development of the Month

3.1. India-Pakistan Relations – Latest Developments

3.1.1. Meeting of the Two Premiers

On the side-lines of SCO summit in Russia, premiers of Pakistan and India met on 10 July

2015. A joint statement was issued after the meeting. According to the statement, "Both leaders

condemned terrorism and agreed to cooperate with each other to eliminate this menace from



South Asia". Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif reiterated his invitation to Prime Minister Modi to visit

Pakistan for the SAARC Summit in 2016. Prime Minister Modi accepted the invitation. Both the

premiers also agreed for:

A meeting in New Delhi between the two countries' national security advisers to discuss all

issues connected to terrorism;

Yearly meetings between director general (DG) of the Border Security Force (BSF) and DG

Pakistan Rangers, followed by that of the directors general of military operations (DGMOs);

A decision on release of fishermen in each other's custody along with boats within a period

of fifteen days;

A mechanism for facilitating religious tourism;

Discussion on means to expedite the Mumbai case trial including additional information like

providing voice samples.

No mention of Kashmir issue as well as that of Indian interference in Pakistan’s affairs in

Joint Statement issued after PM Nawaz Sharif’s meeting with Indian PM Modi was not received well

in Pakistan and all major political parties criticised PM Nawaz Sharif of being too soft on India.

Similarly, Hurriat leadership in Indian Held Kashmir also expressed their dismay over not taking up

Kashmir issue during the meeting. Prime Minister’s Adviser on National Security and Foreign Affairs

Sartaj Aziz, while talking to reporters, said that both leaders were of the opinion that for lasting

peace the way forward was to address the outstanding issues like Kashmir, Siachen and Sir Creek.

Otherwise, it would not be possible to ensure lasting peace. He said that both the leaders also

agreed to take up these issues under the backchannel Track-II mechanism for better understanding

of each other’s point of view suggesting that an agreement has been reached between the two

prime ministers to revive back-channel talks.

No mention of the Composite Dialogue suggests that the formal dialogue process known as

Composite Dialogue would not resume any time soon. Instead, NSAs of the two countries will meet

in New Delhi to discuss each other’s concerns regarding terrorism. The meeting between the two

NSAs might pave way for resumption of dialogue process. Responding positively to Indian desire of

a meeting between the two prime ministers, Pakistan has practically desired to improve relations

with India despite former’s serious apprehensions of latter’s interference and “whipping up” of

terrorism in Pakistan. Since coming into power, PM Sharif is making efforts for improving bilateral

relations with India as an important pillar of his policy of economic revival and regional connectivity.

However, India has always shown a lukewarm response. Pakistan has a desire to remain focused on



its fight against militancy for which a peaceful eastern border is being perceived crucial. Moreover,

for full realisation of proposed Pakistan-China Economic Corridor, an environment of peace in the

region is considered quite mandatory. At the political level, there is almost a consensus in Pakistan

that relations with India should be improved and all outstanding issues including the issue of

Kashmir should be resolved through peaceful negotiations, however, no matching desire exists on

other side of the border. Due to developments on Afghanistan front and Pakistan-China Economic

Corridor, India feels that its political and economic superiority is being challenged. Hardliners in

India do not realise that hostility between Pakistan and India will only plunge the region further into

backwardness and poverty while cooperation could help them overcome such issues.

3.1.2. Gurdaspur Attack and India Proposing Meeting of NSAs

Militant attack in Gurdaspur, India, on 27 July 2015, has once again opened blame game

between the two countries. While Pakistan condemned the incident, Indian media and government

circles, in their knee-jerk reaction, started to blame Pakistan from the very outset. It is still not clear

who exactly carried out the attack and what was the motive behind the attack. Indian Home

Minister Rajnath Singh told parliament, “Preliminary analyses of GPS data indicates that the

terrorists had infiltrated from Pakistan through the area near Tash in Gurdaspur district, where the

Ravi river enters Pakistan” adding, “Any effort by the enemies of our nation to undermine India’s

territorial integrity and security or imperil the safety and security of our citizens will meet an

effective and forceful response from our security forces”. A statement issue from Pakistan’s Foreign

Office read, “The Government of Pakistan categorically rejects the baseless allegations made by Mr

Rajnath Singh…Pakistan regrets the unsubstantiated and unwarranted assertion that those involved

in the Gurdaspur incident of 27 July, had entered India from Pakistan. Pakistan believes that home

minister’s provocative comments are a threat to peace and security of the region”. It further stated,

“We have noted with concern a continuing tendency of India to cast blame on Pakistan for any

terrorist incident in India. In the Gurdaspur incident, blames were apportioned to Pakistan in the

Indian media, even when the encounter with terrorists was still going on.” Pakistan asked India to

work jointly for eliminating terrorism from the region.

Reportedly, India has proposed a meeting, in New Delhi, of the National Security Advisers

(NSAs) on August 23 for discussing the terrorist threat faced by India and Pakistan while Pakistan is

yet to confirm availability for meeting of Sartaj Aziz, Adviser to Prime Minister on National Security

and Foreign Affairs. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi had in

their meeting at Ufa (Russia) agreed that a meeting of the NSAs would be convened to “discuss all



issues connected to terrorism”. India is likely to put Gurdaspur incident on the agenda of the

proposed meeting. On the other hand, Mr Sartaj Aziz told National Assembly during a question hour

that government is considering to highlight the issue of Indian spy agency Research and Analysis

Wing's (RAW) involvement in Pakistan with the United Nations and other international forums and

that Prime Minister will also raise the issue of Indian involvement in Pakistan at the UN General

Assembly session next month.

Both India and Pakistan are unable to find ways and means to discuss their concerns and

find amicable solution of the issues and the cost is being paid by the millions of people in both the

countries. Terrorism and drug trafficking is one of the eight agenda items of the Composite

Dialogue, but both the countries feel that no worthwhile progress has been made on this agenda

item as is the case with other agenda items like Kashmir, Siachen and Sir Creek. During Mushrraf

regime, Pakistan and India also agreed to setup a separate Joint Anti-Terrorism Mechanism to be

headed by the additional secretaries of foreign ministries of respective countries, but the

mechanism could provide desired outcome. Now both the prime ministers, during their meeting in

Russia on the side-lines of SCO Summit, have further raised the level to discuss these issues at the

level of National Security Advisors but raising the level is not likely to be that fruitful until and unless

there is genuine desire to move forward in bilateral relations and quickly resolve their contentious

issues including that of most intractable Kashmir issue. Resolution of Kashmir issue, or a qualitative

move towards resolution of Kashmir issue, would help both the countries to come closer.

3.2. Karachi Operation, Rangers’ Stay in Karachi Extended for a Month

Against the apprehensions that Sindh government might not extend Rangers stay in the

province due to locking horns of PPP with the paramilitary force, Sindh Government has reportedly

extended policing powers of Rangers for one month against the usual practice of four months. Sindh

Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah said that the provincial assembly will later deliberate on confirmation

of Rangers powers and deployment in urban centres under Article 147 of the Constitution.

Information Minister Sharjeel Memon told reporters that during the provincial apex committee

meeting on 12 July, it was decided to continue operation against criminal elements in Karachi.

During the meeting, it was decided to expedite action against banned outfits and to take to task

those abetting and facilitating terrorists, including a few madaris that are supporting radicalism. He

also said that those playing in the hands of India will be targeted. He said those using charity money

to fund terrorist activities will also be checked. Prior to apex committee meeting, a meeting was

held at CM house between PPP Chairman Bilawal, CM Sindh, Corps Commanders Karachi and DG



Rangers, which helped remove reservations between PPP and Rangers regarding Karachi operation.

Stay of Rangers in Sindh is crucial for ongoing operation in Karachi particularly when it is believed

that militants who spread out due to operation in FATA might have established sleeper cells in urban

areas including Karachi.

3.3. MQM – “Out of Frying Pan into Fire”

MQM leadership in London continues to compound problems for itself as well as for the

party. In the latest twist, MQM chief Altaf Hussain has written a letter to UN General Secretary to

intervene in addition to directing its party-men and workers to write letters and organize protest

demonstration in front of UN, white house and NATO headquarters to intervene undo injustices

being committed by the para-military force (Rangers) against the party in Karachi. Moreover, MQM

chief has also asked India to intervene to safe muhajirs.

The latest tirade by the MQM chief is bound to further aggravate uneasy relations between

the military establishment and MQM leadership. Political parties in Pakistan severely criticised

MQM chief and Interior Minister has hinted at taking up the issue of his hate speeches with British

government in addition to extending more cooperation to London police in its investigation of

Imran Farooq murder and money laundering cases being investigated by Scotland Yard. Apparently,

MQM leader is quite nervous about outcome of these two cases and it is believed that his latest

tirade is totally out of frustration. Irrespective of the outcome of the cases and Karachi operation

being conducted by Sindh Rangers, MQM as political party, which is a potent force particularly in

urban areas of Sindh, is being marginalized. Given his clout and followership, there is hardly any

possibility that minus-one formula would work. In the present circumstances, political situation in

Sindh will continue to remain tense with its impact on security situation though actions by the para-

military force has helped substantially improve security situation in the metropolitan.

3.4. Death of Leaders: Changing Landscape of Militancy in Pakistan

and Afghanistan

This month witnessed two major developments in Pakistan and Afghanistan: One was BBC

report that Mullah Omar, chief of Afghan Taliban has died two years ago and other was killing of

Lashker-e-Jhangvi chief Malik Ishaq in reported “encounter”. Both the deaths have their

implications with varying degrees.

Though reports of death of Mullah Omar two years is being contested/ refuted by Afghan

Taliban but the fact remains that Afghan Taliban leader has died and Mullah Akhtar Mansoor who



was running the affairs of the group has been elected the new emir with Sirajauddin Haqqani (of

Haqqani Network) and Haibutullah were elected as his deputies. After the death of Mullah Omar,

questions are being raised on future of peace talks between Afghan Taliban and Afghan government

as the scheduled meeting in Murree between the two has been postponed. It is yet to be seen how

Mullah Mansoor will be able to put a barricade on internal rifts, organize the group and move on

talk’s option. From the very outset, Mansoor is propagated to be very close to Pakistani

establishment/ intelligence putting the new leader in an awkward situation compelling him to make

efforts for dispelling this impression through actions and deeds. Therefore, there are possibilities

that Mullah Mansoor will try to distance from Pakistan and hence putting a question mark on future

of talks. The timing of breaking news by the Afghan intelligence officials is also considered to be

important as the peace talks were heading in right direction. Some observers believe that Afghan

intelligence officials, who are under influence of India, have acted on the behest of India to break

this news at this crucial time to sabotage peace talks. Regardless of background scenes, one thing

is for sure that insurgency, political situation, and geo-strategic situation in Afghanistan has entered

into a new phase.

The killing of LeJ chief Malik Ishaq along with some other top tier leadership of the outfit is

the significant development. Though the circumstances under which the LeJ chief was killed raise

question on so-called encounter as there is general perception that the encounter was stage-

managed. In the recent past, LeJ has proved itself to be the most lethal sectarian outfit who has

established strong strategic and operational relationship with Al-Qaeda, TTP and Baloch sub-

nationalist insurgents in addition to fears that the outfit has also developed an understanding with

Islamic State (Daesh) to further their agenda in Pakistan.

Regardless of the controversy surrounding his killing, the elimination of Malik Ishaq signals

major shift in policies of sitting PML-N government who was blamed of having close relation with

the outfit to achieve its political objectives particularly in Southern and Central Punjab. The

elimination of top leadership of the outfit is bound to seriously dent the capabilities of the outfit to

carryout militant activities but the nature of killing would help the outfit to make more recruitments

as Malik Ishaq and other killed leaders could be presented as “martyrs”. Blowback of Ishaq killing is

expected in days to come.

Another important development during the start of the month was reported killing of Al-

Qaeda chief along with three of his accomplices during a raid by police in Kala Shah Kaku area of

Sheikhupura district (Punjab). Punjab Home Minister Shuja Khanzada in a news conference named



the Al Qaeda leader only as “Abdali” and said he and three other operatives were planning an attack

on government figures. Some media reports suggested that Al-Qaeda was planning an attack on

provincial headquarters of Intelligence Bureau (IB) in Lahore.

Reportedly, on 7 July 2015, chief of the Balochistan chapter of outlawed Jaish-ul-Islam

Mehmood-ur-Rehman and two other suspected militants were killed in a gun battle with security

forces in the Eastern Bypass area of Quetta. Frontier Corps and intelligence agencies launched an

operation in the Eastern Bypass area on information about presence of wanted militants. Mehmood

was accused of being involved in suicide attacks and a series of subversive activities, particularly the

killing of members of the Shia Hazara community. The outfit had also claimed responsibility of

suicide blast in an imambargah in Shikarpur killing more than 60 people belonging to Shia Muslim

community earlier this year.

The elimination of some prominent and top tier leadership of various militant organizations

clearly suggest an intent of the security forces in addition to enhanced prowess of the intelligence

agencies to collect relevant information and coordinate actions. Though extra-judicial killings of

militants could be questioned seriously from human rights point of view, the reaction of general

public is not overbearing as masses forbearing has already reached its limit due to bloodshed from

these militant outfits. There is growing perception that security forces should eliminate these anti-

social and anti-state forces directly as Pakistan’s investigation, prosecution and judicial system is

too faulty to bring these people to book.



4. Security Situation in Baluchistan

Continuing with the previous trend, a further reduction of effect of militant attacks was

observed during July as the month witnessed comparatively less number of deaths in exactly the

same number of incidents recorded last month. In 21 militant activities, 24 people were killed

including seven SFPs, one militant and 16 civilians while 25 others were injured including one

militant and 24 civilians. Detailed break up of district wise violence in the province is given in Table-

6, monthly Comparison of militant activities in Figure-4 and type of attacks in Table-7. Provincial

capital Quetta continued to face highest number of incidents with larger share in total deaths and

injuries.

Due to continuous efforts of the security forces, elimination of some of prominent leaders

of various militant outfits, internal rifts among various insurgent groups and better intelligence

collection and execution have helped improve security situation in the province. Moreover,

provincial government has also tried to address the issue of militancy through economic

development and leadership of Pakistan Army have made it abundantly clear that ongoing

developmental projects will be completed at all costs including Pakistan-China Economic Corridor.

In addition, provincial government has also started work on political solution of the Balochistan

issue as efforts were made to persuade Khan of Kalat to end his self-exile and return to the country.

However, Khan of Kalat has linked his return to verdict of Grant Jirga and the provincial government

is contemplating options to convene Grant Jirga. These steps, with their varying results, are helping

security situation in the province to improve.

Table 6: District wise detail of militant activities in Baluchistan (July 2015)

District Nos Killed Injured


Dera Bugti 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gwadar 1 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Jafarabad 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kech 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Khuzdar 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Panjgur 3 0 0 0 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Pishin 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Qilla Abdullah 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Quetta 8 5 0 1 5 11 0 0 1 24 25 0 0

Total 21 7 0 1 16 24 0 0 1 24 25 0 0



Figure 4: Month Wise Comparison of Militant Activities in Baluchistan

Table 7: Type of Militant Attacks in Baluchistan (July 2015)



IED 7 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 23 23 0 0

SA 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

KK 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MA 4 3 0 1 4 8 0 0 1 1 2 0 0

TK 7 3 0 0 9 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

GrA 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 21 7 0 1 16 24 0 0 1 24 25 0 0

5. Security Situation in FATA

In July, a comparative improvement in security situation, as compared to previous months,

has been monitored in FATA. In 13 militant activities, 41 people were killed including 13 SFPs, 25

militants and three civilians while 21 others were injured including 18 SFPs and three civilians. The

share of militants themselves in total killings suggest that their activities inflicted more damage to

themselves though security forces personnel, who were the prime targets, were also at the

receiving end to some extent. Militants’ activities were observed almost across all the agencies of

FATA while such militant activities in North and South Waziristan were comparatively more lethal.

Self-explanatory monthly comparison of militant activities is given in Figure-5, detailed agency wise

break up of militant activities in Table-8 and break up of type of attacks is given in Table-9.



Figure 5: Month-wise comparison of MAs in FATA

Table 8: Agency wise break up of Militant Activities – FATA (July 2015)

Agency Nos Killed Injured


Bajur 4 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0

Khyber 4 3 0 2 0 5 5 0 0 0 5 0 0

Mohmand 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0

Orakzai 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0

NWA 2 6 0 11 0 17 8 0 0 0 8 0 0

SWA 1 4 0 12 0 16 5 0 0 0 5 0 0

Total 13 13 0 25 3 41 18 0 0 3 21 3 0

Table 9: Type of Militant Attacks in FATA (July 2015)



IED 5 6 0 12 0 18 10 0 0 1 11 0 0

GrA 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0

MA 4 7 0 13 0 20 8 0 0 0 8 0 0

TK 3 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0

Total 13 13 0 25 3 41 18 0 0 3 21 3 0

6. Security Situation in Khyber Pakhtoonkha (KP)

With some variations in number of incidents and deaths when compared in this month and

the last month, security situation in KPK was almost under control. In 13 militant activities recorded

in the province during the month, 14 people were killed including six SFPs, six militants and two

civilians while four others injured including three civilians and one SFP. Self-explanatory monthly

comparison of militant activities in KP is given in Figure-6, militancy affected districts in Table-10

and type of Attacks in Table-11. Improvement in security situation in provincial capital should be a



sign of relief not only for political government but also for security forces. This month Peshawar

only three militant activities and that too of lessor scale. Majority of the 13 militant activities

recorded in the province were reported from either southern districts or central districts which are

either physically connected with FATA or lie close to it suggesting that these activities were carried

out by those militants who are trying to flee from FATA.

Table 10: District wise spread of Militant Attacks in KP (July 2015)



Bannu 1 2 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Charsadda 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

D.I Khan 1 1 0 3 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hangu 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kurk 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0

Mardan 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nowshera 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Peshawar 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 3 0 0

Swat 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tank 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 13 6 0 6 2 14 1 0 0 3 4 0 0

Figure 6: Monthly Comparison of Militant Activities in KP

Table 11: Type of Militant Attacks in KP (July 2015)

Type Nos Killed Injured Kdnp

SFP PGR M C Total SFP PGR M C Total

IED 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 0

MA 5 5 0 6 0 11 1 0 0 0 1 0 0

RA 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TK 3 1 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 13 6 0 6 2 14 1 0 0 3 4 0 0



7. Security Situation in Punjab

Punjab witnessed two militant activities including militants “attack” on security forces in

Muzaffargarh district to get Lashker-e-Jhangvi chief Malik Ishaq released from police custody in

which LeJ chief along with his two sons and other companions were killed, however, there are

doubts whether it was actually a militant attack or it was a staged-managed “encounter” to

eliminate the leader of one of the most fearful sectarian organization that was already in hand and

gloves with TTP, Al-Qaeda, Baloch insurgents and growing apprehension of its linkages with Islamic

State. 14 deaths in incident and six injuries pushed the causality and injuries graph of the province

upward. Other militant attack was reported in Gujrat where a police-check post was attacked.

Monthly comparison of militant activities in Punjab is given in Figure-7, affected districts in Table-

12 and type of attacks in Table-13.

Figure 7: Month-wise comparison of MAs in Punjab

Table 12: District-Wise Breakup of MAs in Punjab (July 2015)



Gujrat 1 0 0 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0

Muzaffargarh 1 0 0 14 0 14 6 0 0 0 6 0 0

Total 2 0 0 16 0 16 8 0 0 0 8 0 0

Table 13: Types of MAs in Punjab (July 2015)



MA 2 0 0 16 0 16 8 0 0 0 8 0 0

Total 2 0 0 16 0 16 8 0 0 0 8 0 0



8. Security Situation in Sindh

Substantial improvement in security situation in Sindh was observed during the month of

July as only three militant activities were reported from province. It seems that Karachi operation

is paying its dividend and help reduce violence in the metropolitan. Rangers have made efforts

during Ramazan to restrict collection of donations by militants as well as political parties who are

believed to be behind violence, these violence perpetrators would be deprived of crucial finances

to support their violent activities though it is naïve to believe that collection of such money was

totally blocked. Provincial government has also extended Rangers stay in the Metropolitan for one

month and likely to keep it extending for subsequent months. Monthly comparison of militant

activities in Sindh is given in Figure-8, affected districts in Table-14 and type of attacks in Table-15.

Figure 8: Month-wise comparison of MAs in Sindh

Table 14: District-Wise Breakup of MAs in Sindh (July 2015)



Karachi 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0

Jacobabad 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0

Table 15: Types of MAs in Sindh (July 2015)



IED 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

GrA 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0

TK 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0



9. Security situation in AJ&K, GB and ICT

Security situation in AJ&K, Islamabad Capital Territory, and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) remained

stable as no militant activity was reported from these regions.

10. Key Points:

Security situation in the country has improved as is visible from reduction in militant

activities as well as resultant deaths. This improvement in security situation has been

witnessed across all the regions including Balochistan, FATA, KPK, and Sindh.

Reduction in killings resulting from security forces actions have also been observed

as security forces have enhanced their focus on intelligence based operations in

addition to eliminating or arresting some top or middle tier leadership of various

militant organizations. This policy has also helped in improving security situation as

militants are feeling more insecure due to their expectations of across the board

action.

Security forces efforts to curb finances of militants particularly those collected in

Ramadan through donations will have its implications of militants’ capabilities to

fiancé their militant activities throughout the year.

MQM leadership in London continues to compound problems for itself as well as for

the party. The latest tirade by MQM Chief is likely to widen distance between MQM

and military establishment and MQM is increasingly losing its image in non-muhajir

general public.

The death of Mullah Omar (or the news of his death) has opened plethora of problem

not only for Afghan Taliban but also put serious question mark on future of peace

talks between Afghan government and Afghan Taliban.

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