Hot Data PointsASA Leadership Meeting

May 2015

Participants:Gail O’Kane, CAO at MCTCTom Williamson, Director of Academic Operations at MCTCTabatha Miller, Research Analyst at MCTCCraig Schoenecker, Director of Research at System OfficeJohn Asmussen, Asmussen ResearchDavid Jones, MSU MankatoPeter Weilinski, Minnesota State Community and Technical College

Student Enrollment/Success

Which Prospects Convert?

•50% of applicants enroll•Math and (especially) Reading placements predict conversion

- MCTC IR

Low-Income Students Are Now “Overrepresented”

*could be due to change in Pell eligibility standards

SOURCE: MCTC IR

Transfer Students Are Much More College Ready

SOURCE: Asmussen Rearch

• 28% of Transfer Students were College Ready

• 6% of First Time were College Ready

High school class rank better predictor of course completion than Accuplacer

• 90% of students in top quartile of their high school class completed 2/3 of their first-term courses at MnSCU 2-year Colleges (compared to 45% of students in the bottom quartile).*

* preliminary results

SOURCE: Asmussen Research

Many “Full-Time” Students Are Part-Time Students

(First-Time Students-excluding ELL, MCTC, Fall 2005-2007)

347

Earned 0 credits

15% Left without earning a credit!

SOURCE: Asmussen Research

ONLY 52% of FT/FT students (our IPEDS cohort) were actually full-time

Getting Off to a Good Start Is Critical

• 71% of students who complete 67% of their first-term credits end up graduating, retained, or transferred compared to 15% of those who don’t -- regardless of placement level and credit load

• English is a gateway to an associate’s degree. Students who complete college English have a success rate of 70%, compared to 30% for those who don’t.o Takeaway: One key approach closing completion gap – close course success

gaps in gateway English courses

SOURCE: Asmussen Research

Continuously enrolled students outperform stop-outs at all departure points

Success includes graduation with any credential or transfer after making satisfactory academic progress.

SOURCE: Asmussen Research

On average student earn 12 unproductive credits on their way to an Associate’s degree

SOURCE: MCTC IR

Prerequisite decisions as a social justice issue

SOURCE: Asmussen Research

% of Black/African American new students placing into lowest levels of Math• 72% of males• 85% of females

Predictive Analytics in Action: MSU MankatoImpact on Persistence by Model Variable

# of students at risk for this

variable

Persistence Rate of at-

risk students

757 58.3%

1292 67.7%

1626 69.9%

750 68.1%

1710 71.6%

1024 71.2%

441 69.8%

Subdivision or College Educational AspirationCategories with persistence rates below

Expected Family Contribution > 0 Flag

Financial Needs Values of 0

In-State Tuition Eligibility Flag

Financial Needs Values of 0

Initial Source Code InstitutionalCategories with persistence rates below

Total Financial Aid Package (Optimal Binning)

Financial NeedsTotal financial aid package of $5,466.50 and below.

No. of Days as Applicant (Optimal Binning)

Educational AspirationWithin 251 days of enrollment.

Model Variable Risk Category Risk Threshold

Percent of Need Met (Optimal Binning)

Financial NeedsLess than 80% of need being met.

- David P. Jones (Vice President for Student Affairs & Enrollment Management)

Risk Factor Analysis

# of Risk Factors Count # Persist

Persistence Rate

Avg. Model Score

0 846 747 88.3% 0.69

1 1406 1164 82.8% 0.58

2 1320 960 72.7% 0.46

3 708 462 65.3% 0.35

4 284 162 57.0% 0.23

5 49 19 38.8% 0.17

6 7 2 28.6% 0.12

7 1 0 0.0% 0.08

Model Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70.00-0.09 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 6.00.10-0.19 0 0 0 8 85 34 5 0 4.30.20-0.29 0 0 10 187 158 14 0 0 3.50.30-0.39 0 0 294 306 41 0 0 0 2.60.40-0.49 0 212 520 194 0 0 0 0 2.00.50-0.59 1 521 467 13 0 0 0 0 1.50.60-0.69 454 623 29 0 0 0 0 0 0.60.70-0.79 384 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.10.80-0.89 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00.90-1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0

# of Risk Factors Avg. # of Risk Factors

- David P. Jones (Vice President for Student Affairs & Enrollment Management)

Predictive Analytics in Action: MSU Mankato

Financial Issues – Students and Institutions

SOURCE: MCTC Academic Operations

MCTC1% increase of course saturation (fill rate) in lower division and developmental courses yields an additional $360,000 per fiscal year in revenue

MnSCU1% increase of course saturation (fill rate) in lower division and developmental courses could yield approximately $12.5 million per fiscal year in additional revenue for MnSCU institutions

19

MnSCU is ranked 38th out of 51 states and DC in administrative spending per FYE

Vermont

Distric

t of C

olumbia

New York

New Hampshire

Alaska

Delaware

Connecticu

t

Maryland

New Jerse

yIowa

Wyo

ming

Rhode Island

Alabama

North Dako

ta

Montana

Pennsylva

nia

West

Virginia

Illinois

Massach

usetts

OregonOhio

Kentucky

Kansas

Nebraska

South Dakota

Indiana

Louisi

ana

Wisc

onsin

GeorgiaUtah

Arkansa

s

Mississ

ippi

Maine

North Carolin

a

California

Virginia

South Carolina

MnSCU

Nevada

Florida

Michigan

New Mexic

o

Oklahoma

Texas

Missouri

Idaho

Hawaii

Arizona

Wash

ington

Tennessee

Colorado$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000A

dmin

istr

ative

spe

ndin

g pe

r fye

One in 3 MnSCU graduates attend more than one college or university

25.0%

39.0%

34.0%

22.0%

44.0%

28.0%

48.0%

34.0%

49.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Certificate Diploma Associate Bachelors Graduate All

Colleges Universities

20Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs

State support per FYE has begun to improve in constant dollars

… but is still 32% below 2002 levels

21

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 est

2015 est

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$4,766

$4,368

$3,924 $3,715

$3,994

$3,847

$3,980 $3,863

$3,261 $3,070

$2,787 $2,813

$3,079 $3,247

Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs

Students now paying 56% of college costs vs. 34% in FY02

22

FY2002 FY2003 FY2004

FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015*

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

66%

60%

55%

52%

53%

50%

51%

50%

45%

43%

40%

40%

42%

44%

34%

40%

45%

48%

47%

50%

49%

50%

55%

57%

60%

60%

58%

56%

Appropriation Tuition

Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs

Affordability: Tuition & fees as a percent of median income

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140%

10%

20%

30%

40%

4.9% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7% 5.7% 5.9% 5.8%

6.4%6.4% 6.7% 6.8% 7.3% 7.5% 7.7% 7.7% 8.1%

8.0%10.7%

10.9% 11.2% 11.6%12.8% 13.6% 14.3% 14.4% 15.0%

14.8%

27.7% 28.0%28.9% 29.1%

33.2%34.4%

35.5% 35.0%36.9% 37.0%

State Colleges State Universities University of Minnesota

Private Colleges and Universities

Tu

itio

n &

Fe

es

as

% o

f M

ed

ian

Inc

om

e

Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs

More MnSCU students are eligible for and are receiving financial aid

24Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs

MnSCU students are receiving increasing amounts of financial aid

25Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs

MnSCU% with No Debt

MnSCU % withDebt

Median Debt for those

with Debt

Median Debt for all

Graduates

Certificates 46.4% 53.6% $11,028 $2,778

Associates Degrees 34.3% 65.7% $15,940 $8,777Baccalaureate Degree 26.3% 73.7% $26,057 $19,064

Student Loan Debt at Graduation Varies Greatly by Award(FY 2014 Graduates)

26Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs

Private institution graduates have more student loan debt

27Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs

Percent of Graduates With Student Loan Debt

Median Student Loan Debt at Graduation

Student borrowing has outpaced cost of attendance

• Student cost/FYE: • Fin Aid/FYE:

SOURCE: MCTC Finance Division*data from http://www2.ed.gov/offices/OSFAP/defaultmanagement/cdr2yr.html

• Borrowing has led to ~doubling of default rates2008 Cohort 2009 Cohort 2010 Cohort

7.8% 12.1% 14.1%

11.7%

47.1%

Using Data to Target Marketing

Using Data to Target Marketing Efforts

SOURCE: Peter Weilinski, Minnesota State Community and Technical College

Career Coach Source Career Wages Job Openings Outlook Growth Percentage

Retirement 65+

3-Year Placement Average

Involvement Ranking Average

Fall2Spring Fall2Fall Academic Performance Graduation Rate Placement Rate

OO OO OK OO na

Accounting, Accounting Clerk $9.85 45 47 4.10% 182 46%n/a WAGE OK JOB OPENINGS OK IN OK OO OK OK OO

Accounting, Accounting Clerk $9.85 45 47 4.10% 182 46%n/a WAGE OK JOB OPENINGS OK IN OK OK OK na na

Secretary and Administrative Assistant $10.40 29 30 2.80% 106 83% 3.5WAGE OK OO OK OK OK OO

Architechtural Drafter $14.43 1 1 -2.30% 0 61% 4.5WAGE OK OK OO OK OK OO

Master Mechanic - Automotive $9.16 24 24 0% 33 93% 4 OK OO OO OO OO

Automotive Body and Related Repair $9.99 8 8 5.40% 7 73% 2WAGE OK OK OO OK OO OO

n/a n/a n/a #VALUE! n/a n/a 67% 4WAGE OK #VALUE! #VALUE! OO OO OO OO OO

General Operations Manager $18.54 33 34 2.80% 48 75% 4WAGE OK OO OO OO OO OO

Teacher Assistant $8.85 55 56 1.70% 89 75% 3.5 JOB OPENINGS OK OO OO OO OO OK

Network and Computer Systems Administrator $26.81 6 7 9.60% 0 79% 3.5WAGE OK OO OO OO OK OO

SOURCE: Peter Weilinski, Minnesota State Community and Technical College

Using Data to Target Marketing Efforts

What are your hot data points?