horne lake connector business case 2016

REPORT PREPARED FOR BC MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE BY CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED, 2016

F I N A L R E P O R T

Horne Lake Connector Business Case

Prepared for

BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure

October 2016

CH2M HILL Canada Limited Metrotower II – Suite 2100 4720 Kingsway Burnaby, BC V5H 4N2


This report was prepared for the sole use of British Columbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure by CH2M HILL Canada Limited. The report is not to be released without the express

written permission of British Columbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure.

493483_TR1014151032VBC iii REPORT PREPARED FOR BC MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE BY CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED, 2016

Executive Summary

The Alberni‐Clayoquot Regional District, City of Port Alberni, and the Port Alberni Port Authority have long endorsed construction of a new highway linking Port Alberni to the Inland Island Highway (Highway 19) on Vancouver Island. Various alignment options around Horne Lake have been studied in the past, most recently in 2012. The proposed highway – the Horne Lake Connector (HLC) – is intended to relieve safety and congestion concerns, and increase travel reliability in the event of an incident on Highway 4. This improved transportation connection could, in turn, benefit Vancouver Island’s economy.

The BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure (BC MoTI) committed to conduct a business case review to assess the costs and benefits of the proposed HLC in B.C. on the Move – A 10‐Year Transportation Plan (BC MoTI, 2015).

In 2015, BC MoTI retained CH2M HILL Canada Limited (CH2M) to undertake this business case review, which comprised the following:

Review of previous work undertaken on the proposed HLC, including identification of potentialmodifications to the concept design and updates of construction cost estimates to current dollarvalues at the time of the study (2015 $).

Review and development of potential improvements to Highway 4 between Highway 19 and PortAlberni to increase safety, reliability, and capacity of the existing corridor.

Comparison of these alternatives against the existing Highway 4, using a Multiple AccountEvaluation (MAE) framework, based on BC MoTI guidelines.

Presentation of study findings to support discussion with key stakeholders.

The MAE features a quantitative financial analysis of the costs and benefits of each option. It also includes a qualitative assessment of the options against a comprehensive set of environmental, social, and economic criteria. The financial account of the MAE is presented in Table ES‐1. The assessment of non‐financial accounts is presented in Table ES‐2.

A 35‐year analysis period was established for the study.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

iv 493483_TR1014151032VBC REPORT PREPARED FOR BC MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE BY CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED, 2016

Table ES‐1. MAE Summary – Financial Accounts (2015 $millions)

Accounts Horne Lake Connector

Highway 4 Improvements

Costs

Capital Cost $89.5 $24.1

Property Cost $2.3 $0

O&M Expenses (2021 or 2027 start – 2050) $8.2 $1.3

Salvage Value (20% of Capital Cost) ($17.9) ($4.8)

Total Cost (Capital + O&M + Salvage) $82.1 $20.6

User Benefits

Travel Time Costs $10.6 –

Vehicle Operating Cost $7.0 –

Safety ($8.5) $6.9

Total Benefit (Travel time + Veh Ops + Safety) $9.1 $6.9

Net Present Value ($73.0) ($13.7)

Benefit – Cost Ratio 0.11 0.33

Note:

All values shown are relative to the base case and (brackets) indicates a negative incremental change.

The proposed HLC has a Net Present Value (NPV) of ($73.0 million) compared with a NPV of ($13.7 million) for the Highway 4 improvements. These negative NPVs indicate that the cost of constructing, operating, and maintaining either option exceed the financial user benefits that have been measured. A benefit cost ratio was calculated for each option and was determined to be 0.11 for the proposed HLC and 0.33 for the Highway 4 improvements.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

493483_TR1014151032VBC v REPORT PREPARED FOR BC MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE BY CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED, 2016

Table ES‐2. MAE Summary – Non Financial Accounts



CUSTOMER SERVICE (non‐monetized criteria)

Travel Times ● ◑Vehicle Operating Costs ◕ ◑Reliability (traffic) ● ◑Reliability (weather) ◑ ◑ Safety ◔ ◕

SOCIAL/ COMMUNITY

Access to Services ● ◑Alignment with Official Community Plans ◑ ◑ Property Impacts ◔ ◑Parks ◔ ◕Recreation ◕ ◑

ENVIRONMENT

GHG Emissions (Travel‐Related) ◕ ◑Air Pollution ◕ ◑Agricultural Impacts ◑ ◑ Terrestrial (Flora/Fauna) Impacts ○ ◔Aquatic Impacts ◔ ◑Water Resource Impacts ◔ ◑Geotechnical Risks ◔ ◑Archaeological and Historical Use ◔ ◑

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Economic Development Objectives ● ◑Access to Regional Markets ● ◑Impacts on Local Business Competitiveness ● ◑

Legend:

○ Much Worse

◔ Worse

◑ Neutral

◕ Better

● Much Better

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

vi 493483_TR1014151032VBC REPORT PREPARED FOR BC MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE BY CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED, 2016

In summary:

The proposed HLC would be an alternative route that provides travel time and vehicle operatingcost savings. However, the capital and O&M costs of the HLC are significantly greater than thesepotential user benefits.

The Highway 4 improvements would provide localized safety, accessibility, and reliability benefits.However, these benefits are outweighed by the capital and O&M costs of implementing theindividual projects. Improvements could be implemented and staged as funding becomes available.

493483_TR1014151032VBC vii REPORT PREPARED FOR BC MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE BY CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED, 2016

Contents

Section Page

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................ iii

Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................................................................... xi

1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1‐1 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................... 1‐1 1.2 Study Objectives .............................................................................................................. 1‐1

2. Proposed Horne Lake Connector Alignment .......................................................................... 2‐1 2.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................... 2‐1 2.2 Existing Corridor ............................................................................................................... 2‐1 2.3 Geotechnical Assessment ................................................................................................ 2‐5 2.4 Environmental Assessment .............................................................................................. 2‐5

3. Existing Highway 4 Conditions .............................................................................................. 3‐7 3.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................... 3‐7 3.2 Geometric Assessment .................................................................................................... 3‐7 3.3 Historic Traffic Assessment ............................................................................................ 3‐12 3.4 Reliability ....................................................................................................................... 3‐13 3.5 Safety Performance ....................................................................................................... 3‐14

4. Travel Demand Forecasting................................................................................................... 4‐1 4.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................... 4‐1 4.2 Methodology .................................................................................................................... 4‐1 4.3 Key Findings ..................................................................................................................... 4‐1

5. Design Criteria ...................................................................................................................... 5‐1 5.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................... 5‐1 5.2 Proposed Horne Lake Connector ..................................................................................... 5‐1 5.3 Highway 4 ........................................................................................................................ 5‐2

6. Proposed Horne Lake Connector ........................................................................................... 6‐1 6.1 Lacy Lake Route ............................................................................................................... 6‐1 6.2 Utilities ............................................................................................................................. 6‐7

7. Proposed Highway 4 Improvements ..................................................................................... 7‐1 7.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................... 7‐1

8. Cost Estimates ...................................................................................................................... 8‐1 8.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................... 8‐1 8.2 Approach to Cost Estimating ........................................................................................... 8‐1 8.3 Cost Estimate for the Proposed HLC ................................................................................ 8‐2 8.4 Cost Estimate for Highway 4 Improvements ................................................................... 8‐5

9. Multiple Account Evaluation ................................................................................................. 9‐1 9.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................... 9‐1 9.2 Implementation Plan ....................................................................................................... 9‐2 9.3 Financial Account ............................................................................................................. 9‐3

CONTENTS

Section Page

viii 493483_TR1014151032VBC REPORT PREPARED FOR BC MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE BY CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED, 2016

9.4 Customer Service Account ............................................................................................... 9‐3 9.5 Social/Community Account ............................................................................................. 9‐6 9.6 Environmental Account ................................................................................................... 9‐8 9.7 Economic Development Account ..................................................................................... 9‐9 9.8 MAE Summary ............................................................................................................... 9‐10 9.9 Sensitivity Analysis – Financial Accounts ....................................................................... 9‐12

10. Summary of Findings .......................................................................................................... 10‐1 10.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................ 10‐1 10.2 Summary ........................................................................................................................ 10‐1 10.3 Further Considerations .................................................................................................. 10‐2

11. References .......................................................................................................................... 11‐1

Appendices A Horne Lake Connector Study – Geotechnical Input – Mount Mark Rockfall Assessment B Desktop Environmental Assessment – Horne Lake Highway 19 Connector C Current Signage Along Highway 4 D Summary of Highway 4 Closures E Horne Lake Connector Demand Modelling Procedures and Assumptions F Highway 4 Improvement Projects G Safety Benefits of Potential Improvements H Expanded Assessment Matrix I Potential Project Risks

Tables

ES‐1 MAE Summary – Financial Accounts (2015 $millions) .................................................................... iv ES‐2 MAE Summary – Non Financial Accounts ........................................................................................ v 3‐1 Comparison of Unplanned Highway Closures on Vancouver Island (2008 to Present) .............. 3‐13 5‐1 Recommended Design Criteria for the Proposed Horne Lake Connector .................................... 5‐1 7‐1 Summary of Proposed Highway 4 Improvements ........................................................................ 7‐1 8‐1 Summary of Cost Estimates for Horne Lake Connector ............................................................... 8‐4 8‐2 Summary of Cost Estimates for Highway 4 Improvements .......................................................... 8‐5 9‐1 Incremental Vehicle CAC Emissions (tonnes) ............................................................................... 9‐8 9‐2 MAE Summary – Financial Accounts (2015 $millions) ................................................................ 9‐10 9‐3 MAE Summary – Non Financial Accounts ................................................................................... 9‐11 9‐4 Sensitivity Analysis Scenarios ...................................................................................................... 9‐12 9‐5 Results of Sensitivity Analysis – Financial Accounts (2015 $ millions) ........................................ 9‐12

Figures

1‐1 Historic Route Options Connecting Highway 19 to Port Alberni .................................................. 1‐1 2‐1 Horne Lake Connector Concept Alignment .................................................................................. 2‐2 2‐2 Island Timberlands Logging Road ................................................................................................. 2‐3 2‐3 Existing Crossing of the Big Qualicum River .................................................................................. 2‐3 2‐4 Horne Lake Caves Road ................................................................................................................. 2‐4

CONTENTS

Section Page

493483_TR1014151032VBC ix REPORT PREPARED FOR BC MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE BY CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED, 2016

2‐5 Horne Lake Road ........................................................................................................................... 2‐5 3‐1 Highway 4 Key Plan ....................................................................................................................... 3‐7 3‐2 Highway 4, West of Pratt Road (Approximately Km 1.5) .............................................................. 3‐8 3‐3 Highway 4 along Cameron Lake (Approximately Km 11.5) ........................................................... 3‐9 3‐4 Highway 4 at Angel Rock (Approximately Km 12.7) ..................................................................... 3‐9 3‐5 Parking Lot at Cathedral Grove Info Centre (Km 16.7) ............................................................... 3‐10 3‐6 Cathedral Grove (Approximately Km 17.5) ................................................................................. 3‐10 3‐7 End of West Bound Passing Lane, Km 23.1 ................................................................................. 3‐11 3‐8 Concrete Roadside Barrier .......................................................................................................... 3‐11 3‐9 BC MoTI Short Count Stations – Highway 4 East of Port Alberni ................................................ 3‐12 3‐10 BC MoTI Short Count Stations – Highway 4 Near Highway 19/Highway 4A ............................... 3‐13 4‐1 Percentage Distribution of Outbound and Inbound Traffic .......................................................... 4‐3 6‐1 Proposed Horne Lake Connector .................................................................................................. 6‐2 6‐2 Section 1 – Proposed Horne Lake Connector ............................................................................... 6‐3 6‐3 Section 2 – Proposed Horne Lake Connector ............................................................................... 6‐3 6‐4 Section 2 – Existing Gravel Road Between Qualicum River and Horne Lake Caves Road ............ 6‐4 6‐5 Section 2 –View of Mount Mark Slide .......................................................................................... 6‐5 6‐6 Section 3 – Proposed Horne Lake Connector ............................................................................... 6‐6 6‐7 HLC Elevation Profile (adapted from: R.F. Binnie & Associates, 2012) ......................................... 6‐7 6‐8 Fortis Gas Pipeline along Horne Lake Caves Road ........................................................................ 6‐7 7‐1 Highway 4 Elevation Profile (Port Alberni to Highway 4A Junction) ............................................ 7‐2 9‐1 Multiple Account Evaluation Framework ..................................................................................... 9‐1 9‐2 Travel Distance and Time Comparison between Highway 4 and the HLC .................................... 9‐4 9‐3 Horne Lake Connector and Nearby Park Lands ............................................................................ 9‐7

493483_TR1014151032VBC xi REPORT PREPARED FOR BC MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE BY CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED, 2016

Acronyms and Abbreviations

AADT annual average daily traffic

ACRD Alberni‐Clayoquot Regional District

ACTC Alberni‐Clayoquot Transportation Committee

ALR Agricultural Land Reserve

BC MoTI British Columbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure

CAC Criteria Air Contaminant

CH2M CH2M HILL Canada Limited

CMF collision modification factor

CPM collision prediction model

CRB concrete roadside barrier

CSI collision severity index

coll/mvk collisions per million vehicle kilometre

EB eastbound

GHG greenhouse gas

HLC Horne Lake Connector

km kilometre

km/h kilometre per hour

LKI Landmark Kilometre Inventory

m metre

m2 square metre

MAE Multiple Account Evaluation

MR management reserve

MSE mechanically stabilized earth

NPV net present value

O&M operations and maintenance

RAU Rural Arterial Undivided

ROW right‐of‐way

SADT summer average daily traffic

TAZ traffic analysis zone

VKT vehicle kilometres travelled

WB westbound

493483_TR1014151032VBC 1‐1 REPORT PREPARED FOR BC MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE BY CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED, 2016

1. Introduction

1.1 Background The Alberni‐Clayoquot Regional District (ACRD) has long promoted construction of a new highway, in addition to the existing Highway 4, to link the City of Port Alberni to the Inland Island Highway (Highway 19), seeing this as an opportunity to improve safety and reliability for road users, and in turn, benefit the Port Alberni economy. A connector route has been the subject of many past studies, as illustrated in Figure 1‐1.

Figure 1‐1. Historic Route Options Connecting Highway 19 to Port Alberni

In 2013, the ACRD formed the Alberni‐Clayoquot Transportation Committee (ACTC) to spearhead a new connector highway to Highway 19 to improve transportation within the Alberni Valley.

1.2 Study Objectives The objectives of this study are as follows:

1. Conduct a business case review to assess the costs and benefits of an alternate connection between the Island Highway and Port Alberni, as identified in B.C. on the Move – A 10‐Year Transportation Plan (BC MoTI, 2015).

2. Review previous work undertaken on the Horne Lake Connector (HLC). This study includes a review of the concept design and cost estimating work undertaken by others and identifies modifications or enhancements that should be considered to improve traffic operations and to potentially reduce impacts to adjacent communities. In addition, this study includes a review of the construction cost estimate and updates the costs to current dollar values.

INTRODUCTION

1‐2 493483_TR1014151032VBC REPORT PREPARED FOR BC MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE BY CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED, 2016

3. Review and develop potential improvements to the existing Highway 4 between Highway 19 and Port Alberni. The study investigates the opportunities for implementing various improvement projects along Highway 4 to increase safety, reliability, and capacity of the existing corridor.

4. Compare the alternatives against the existing Highway 4. The study brings together quantitative and qualitative analysis of the alternatives in a Multiple Account Evaluation (MAE) framework, based on British Columbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure (BC MoTI) guidelines.

5. Present the findings to support discussion. The study provides details on each alternative including design, costs, benefits, and potential challenges to support BC MoTI and ACTC on dialogue on the path forward.


2. Proposed Horne Lake Connector Alignment

2.1 Overview Various alignments for a road connection between the Island Highway and Port Alberni have been explored in the past, as shown in Figure 1‐1. These studies include:

In 1993, BC MoTI initiated the Vancouver Island Highway Link Study to examine the economic viability of constructing road links between Port Renfrew, Lake Cowichan, Port Alberni and Cumberland/Courtney (BC MoTI, 1993).

In 2004, BC MoTI commissioned Focus to update the 1993 work.

In 2005, BC MoTI commissioned ND Lea to look at various alignments, north and south of Horne Lake to connect Hwy 19 and Port Alberni.

In 2007, the ACRD commissioned R.F. Binnie and Associates Ltd. (Binnie) to develop another alignment.

In 2012, BC MoTI commissioned Urban Systems to review the various alignments developed.

In 2012, the ACRD commissioned Binnie to develop a further alignment north of Horne Lake. At this time, RF Binnie was tasked with examining a number of potential routes and ultimately ruled out all but one possible route. Significant design work and evaluation of this route, referred to as the Lacy Lake Option, has been undertaken by the ACRD’s consultants.

In 2014, ACRD commissioned Apex Engineering Limited to prepare a business case for the HLC based on the Lacy Lake Option.

2.2 Existing Corridor The proposed route for the HLC begins at Highway 4 just east of Port Alberni, near the intersection of Highway 4 and the Old Nanaimo Highway Road. The route travels north from Highway 4 generally following the existing logging road that connects to Horne Lake Caves Road at Horne Lake Caves Provincial Park. The route then follows Horne Lake Caves Road and Horne Lake Road to connect to Highway 19.

PROPOSED HORNE LAKE CONNECTOR ALIGNMENT


Figure 2‐1. Horne Lake Connector Concept Alignment Source: R.F. Binnie and Associates Ltd.

The route that Binnie developed was separated into three sections, as shown in Figure 2‐1. Section 1 is 13.75 km long and begins on Highway 4 just east of Port Alberni. The route follows existing local roads for approximately 4 km and then generally follows the existing Island Timberlands logging road (shown in Figure 2‐2) that connects to Horne Lake Caves Road at the northwest end of Horne Lake. The route climbs to an elevation of 388 metres (m) near Lacey Lake, crossing the E&N Railway Line as it climbs to Lacey Lake. After passing Lacey Lake the route descends down to Horne Lake, crossing the Big Qualicum River upstream of Horne Lake (shown in Figure 2‐3), and then joining up to Horne Lake Caves Road. Section 1 also traverses through the Horne Lake Caves Provincial Park and the Horne Lake Regional Park.

Section 2 begins near the Horne Lake Caves and essentially follows the Horne Lake Caves Road and Horne Lake Road to the intersection of Horne Lake Road and Illusion Lake Road, a distance of 9.4 km long. This section follows the north side of Horne Lake for much of its length passing through the Horne Lake Community strata lands and passing by many private cabins and driveways. According to the Horne Lake Community Association, there are 42 driveways serving 119 cottages along Horne Lake Caves Road. The strata also owns 3,200 acres of privately managed forests adjacent to the strata lands.

The existing roads are gravel and vary in width from about 8 m to 10 m. The existing roads have reasonable gradients, but there are sections that would require alignment improvements. There are sections of steep uphill and downhill slopes that go down to Horne Lake. The route also passes by Mount Mark which is known to produce rock fall events; boulders from some of these events have reached to Horne Lake Caves Road (shown in Figure 2‐4).



Figure 2‐2. Island Timberlands Logging Road

Figure 2‐3. Existing Crossing of the Big Qualicum River



Figure 2‐4. Horne Lake Caves Road

Section 3 begins at the Horne Lake Road (shown in Figure 2‐5) and Illusion Lake Road intersection and follows Horne Lake Road to Highway 19, a distance of 4.1 kms. This road is generally gravel with some pavement at the east end. The road alignment is generally good but there are sections where the existing road would require significant upgrading.



Figure 2‐5. Horne Lake Road

Most of the land adjacent to Horne Lake Road is undeveloped.

2.3 Geotechnical Assessment Thurber Engineering Ltd. conducted a site reconnaissance and desktop study for the HLC option. The purpose of this study was to summarize the geotechnical hazards related to rock fall near Mount Mark and provide preliminary recommendations to mitigate rock fall risks based on available geotechnical information. This section provides a summary of this assessment; the full report is included as Appendix A.

Mount Mark and the surrounding area is generally comprised of rocky bluffs with exposed bedrock. A review of historical photos from 1936 to 1998 suggest rock fall events have occurred in the area, although the timing and size of the events is difficult to estimate. There was record of a large rock fall in 1978 that originated near the summit of Mount Mark and resulted in debris reaching the road.

Although there is a moderate to high likelihood that a rock fall will occur and impact the HLC, mitigation measures can be implemented to reduce the hazard to road users. These measures could include, but are not limited to: rock sheds, rock fall fences, scaling, catchment berms, and ditches. Prior to designing these measures, a more detailed reconnaissance and analysis needs to be completed. That analysis will, in turn, inform the development of site specific design criteria and mitigation measures.

Based on the limited assessment that was conducted, the geotechnical issues identified can be addressed during later design and construction stages.

2.4 Environmental Assessment CH2M HILL Canada Limited (CH2M) conducted a desktop assessment of available environmental information to identify potential environmental concerns encountered by the HLC option. A detailed listing of environmental issues/metrics, potential effects, and recommended mitigation measures are provided in Appendix B. The topics of most concern include:

Karst topography – protected landscape and constructability issues due to the possibility of sink holes near Mount Mark.



Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR) –There may be some ALR‐related permitting needs along the HLC alignment; however, impact on ALR lands is unlikely.

Horne Lake Caves Provincial Park and Horne Lake Regional Park – the parks are under the jurisdiction of BC Parks (on provincial Crown land) and the Regional District of Nanaimo (on municipal‐owned land), respectively; additional studies and permits would be required for each park in consultation with BC Parks and Regional District of Nanaimo.

Special Management Area under the Vancouver Island Land Use Plan (BC Ministry of Forests, 2002) – these areas are set aside to protect high value resources and meet certain management objectives. Constructing through these areas would require discussions with the BC Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations and municipalities. In addition, local bylaws apply within with these areas.

Should the proposed HLC proceed to the next stage of project development, a summary of additional surveys and studies needed to support permitting processes and implementation of best management practices for: stream crossings, riparian disturbance, rare plants, invasive plants, and wildlife species at risk is provided in Appendix B.


3. Existing Highway 4 Conditions

3.1 Overview The Highway 4 corridor, shown in Figure 3‐1, will remain an important east‐west transportation route, regardless of whether the proposed HLC is built. Therefore it is important to have a clear understanding of the existing conditions and possible issues along Highway 4, including geometry and constraints, existing traffic volumes, highway reliability and safety performance. The existing conditions analysis is based on drive‐throughs of Highway 4 and a desk top study of geotechnical and environmental data.

Figure 3‐1. Highway 4 Key Plan Base map source: http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/bcparks/explore/map.html

3.2 Geometric Assessment Highway 4 is classified as Rural Arterial Undivided (RAU) with a posted speed of 80 kilometre per hour (km/h), with the exception of the section through Cathedral Grove (Km 17 to Km 18) where the posted speed is reduced to 50 km/h. The existing alignment of Highway 4 between Highway 19 and Port Alberni is comprised of two segments within the Landmark Kilometre Inventory (LKI). Segment 2356 includes the portion of Highway 4 between Highway 19 (Km 0.0) and the intersection with Highway 4A (Km 2.6), while Segment 2355 includes the section between Highway 4A (Km 0.0) and Port Alberni (Km 31.0). Maps showing the current signage located along Highway 4, referenced by LKI segment and kilometre (km), are included in Appendix C. Note that the LKI km references shown on the maps are approximate.

Little Qualicum Falls Provincial Park

Spider Lake Provincial Park

MacMillan Provincial Park

Horne Lake Caves Provincial Park

EXISTING HIGHWAY 4 CONDITIONS


3.2.1 Segment 2356 Segment 2356 of Highway 4 was reconstructed as part of the Vancouver Island Highway Project in the mid‐1990s. The highway geometric elements in this segment meet the guidelines of a RAU highway as per the BC Supplement to TAC. The segment has a posted speed of 80 km/h with good horizontal and vertical alignment and 2.5 m paved shoulders. This section also has good sight distance and adequate clear zone.

There is no development along Highway 4 in this segment and the only the intersection is at Hilliers Road (Km 1.12).

The Highway 4 Safety Review conducted by Opus International Consultants (Canada) Limited in 2009 (Opus, 2009) identified that the majority of collisions occur at the on and off ramps at the intersection of Highway 19 with Highway 4A.

3.2.2 Segment 2355 This segment includes four distinct sections as described below.

Km 0.0 to Km 5.7 From Highway 4A to Chatsworth Road (Km 5.7) the highway alignment is generally good with 1.5 m paved shoulders. Private properties in this section are very close to the highway limiting improvement opportunities.

Figure 3‐2. Highway 4, West of Pratt Road (Approximately Km 1.5)

Safety reviews for this section have recommended that improvements for this section focus on intersection improvements including adding left turn lanes. BC MoTI has done several improvements to intersections along this section in recent years including Pratt Road, Clark Road, and Chatsworth Road.

Mobility along this section is generally good. There are no passing lanes but there are some sections where passing is permitted.

Km 5.7 to Km 16 Between Chatsworth Road and Cathedral Grove, Highway 4 becomes more of a winding, mountain highway with numerous speed advisories and curve warning signs particularly along Cameron Lake between Km 10 and Km 16. The terrain becomes very challenging and the highway is bounded by



Cameron Lake on the right side and steep, rock slopes on the left. This section of Highway 4 also traverses through MacMillan Provincial Park and Qualicum Provincial Park.

Figure 3‐3. Highway 4 along Cameron Lake (Approximately Km 11.5)

Figure 3‐4. Highway 4 at Angel Rock (Approximately Km 12.7)

In many areas the highway width is reduced such that little paved shoulder exists such as exhibited in Figure 3‐4. Widening the shoulders and placing concrete roadside barriers (CRB) along these sections would provide safety improvements to further protect motorists from the rock face and the lake.

Safety concerns identified in this section include the intersections at Little Qualicum Falls Park, Cameron Lake Beach Access and Beaufort Rest Area. Also many of the collisions have been identified as off‐road crashes for drivers travelling in both the eastbound (EB) and westbound (WB) directions.

There is one passing lane in each direction, WB between Km 6.9 to Km 7.7 and EB between Km 9.7 and Km 8.7. Both of these passing lanes are too short based on current standards and could be improved by extending them beyond the crests of the hills to avoid slow moving vehicles merging with higher speed



traffic. Due to the highway alignment, passing opportunities are limited to a short section west of Beaufort Rest Area where passing is permitted in both directions.

Km 16 to Km 19 Through Cathedral Grove the alignment of Highway 4 is generally good. However, the posted speed is reduced through this section due to the activity around the Cathedral Grove Info Centre and the number of visitors to the park.

Figure 3‐5. Parking Lot at Cathedral Grove Info Centre (Km 16.7)

The limited parking area creates safety concerns with vehicles turning on and off the highway, vehicles backing into oncoming traffic, pedestrians crossing the highway, and vehicles travelling through the site at excessive speeds. The shoulder widths are narrow and large trees are very close to the roadway. However, west of the info centre there are few safety concerns.

Figure 3‐6. Cathedral Grove (Approximately Km 17.5)



Km 18 to Km 31 The section from Cathedral Grove to Port Alberni crosses the Highway 4 Summit and has sections of steep gradients of up to 8 percent. The posted speed is 80 km/h, but the challenging terrain creates several sections with 50 km/h and 60 km/h advisories.

For WB traffic there is a climbing lane between Km 22.2 and Km 23.1. The climbing lane ends before the crest of the hill and extending the climbing lane would improve traffic mobility. The EB climbing lane begins as the highway leaves Port Alberni and ends just before the Highway 4 Summit, a distance of 5.4 kms. Other than the climbing lanes the only passing permitted is in a short section around Km 19.

Figure 3‐7. End of West Bound Passing Lane, Km 23.1

After crossing the summit the WB traffic begins a 5 km descent into Port Alberni with the downhill gradient up to 8 percent in some sections. The descent for EB traffic is shorter, but the grade is also very steep. Brake checks are provided at the Highway 4 Summit for EB and WB traffic.

Figure 3‐8. Concrete Roadside Barrier



Concrete roadside barrier is provided in some areas to protect drivers from the rock faces and steep down slopes adjacent to the road. The Ministry will continue to improve roadside barriers through the annual Provincial guardrail program as warrants are met.

In this segment, Opus identified two sections with high crash rates. The area by the WB brake check and the Highway 4 Summit, near Km 24.8, had accidents relating to road conditions and alignment. The section between Km 26.6 and Km 28.5, in the vicinity of Niagra Culvert, had several off road accidents in both directions as well as two head‐on collisions. Driving too fast for the conditions was noted as an issue.

3.3 Historic Traffic Assessment There are four BC MoTI short count sites located along Highway 4 between Port Alberni and Highway 19. Stations 12‐042 and 12‐048 are located at the eastern end of Port Alberni and are shown in Figure 3‐9. Station 14‐020 is located west of the intersection with Highway 4A while Station 14‐062 is located between this intersection and the Highway 19 interchange, as shown in Figure 3‐10.

In 2012, the average annual daily traffic (AADT) on Highway 4 east of Port Alberni (Station 12‐048) was estimated to be approximately 7,350 vehicles while the summer average daily traffic (SADT) was approximately 35 percent higher at 9,950 vehicles. Towards the eastern end of Highway 4 (Station 14‐020), the 2012 AADT and SADT were estimated to be 8,700 and 11,900, respectively.

Figure 3‐9. BC MoTI Short Count Stations – Highway 4 East of Port Alberni Source: http://www.th.gov.bc.ca/trafficdata/index.html



Figure 3‐10. BC MoTI Short Count Stations – Highway 4 Near Highway 19/Highway 4A Source: http://www.th.gov.bc.ca/trafficdata/index.html

3.4 Reliability DriveBC is an online database and Traveller Information System maintained by BC MoTI. The database records the number, duration, and specific causes of closures across the provincial highway network. It may not necessarily capture all closures that are short in duration nor incidents that go unreported. Still, it provides valuable data to enable BC MoTI to track reliability performance at a systems level. Reliability is influenced by numerous criteria including, but not limited to: weather, construction, vehicle incidents, fluctuations in demand, highway capacity, and special events.

For the purposes of this study, BC MoTI provided DriveBC closure data for a number of highway segments on Vancouver Island from 2008 to present. Table 3‐1 compares the reliability of the relevant section of Highway 4 between Highway 19 and Port Alberni (highlighted) against other highway segments on Vancouver Island. From this comparison, it is evident that the Highway 4 corridor is as reliable, if not more, than other Vancouver Island corridors.

Table 3‐1. Comparison of Unplanned Highway Closures on Vancouver Island (2008 to Present)

Highway Location Closures Per Year Avg. Duration (hrs)

1 Malahat 28.0 1.8

4 Highway 19 to Port Alberni 8.1 2.3

14 Victoria to Sooke1 14.3 3.2

19 Nanaimo to Parksville 8.3 1.9

19 Campbell River North 9.4 4.8

Note: 1 Average duration does not include 12‐day closure due to mud slide in January 2009.

Appendix D shows a detailed summary of closures on Highway 4 between Highway 19 and Port Alberni.



3.5 Safety Performance BC MoTI provided collision data for the Highway 4 corridor (BC MoTI Segment 2355) between Port Alberni and the Highway 4/Highway 4A junction for the seven year period from January 2008 through December 2014. A total of 416 collisions were recorded during this time, 10 of which involved fatalities. Based on the collision data, the collision rate for this section of Highway 4 was 0.53 collisions per million vehicle kilometres (coll/mvk), which is approximately 47 percent higher than the provincial average rate of 0.36 coll/mvk for RAU2 highway with an AADT between 5,001 and 10,000 vehicles. Note that the provincial average rate is based on collisions recorded between 2009 and 2013.

The Highway 4 corridor has a collision severity index (CSI) of 7.01, which is slightly lower than the provincial average CSI of 7.29. This is due to the lower distribution of fatal collisions recorded on Highway 4 (2.4 percent of all collisions) compared to the provincial average data (2.7 percent).


4. Travel Demand Forecasting

4.1 Overview This section provides a summary of the approach used for forecasting the travel demand and route choice for the proposed HLC; the full technical memorandum is included as Appendix E.

4.2 Methodology The general methodology for understanding future traffic on the network was as follows:

i. A simple network model of the study area was developed in order to reflect congestion effects on the highway network, and to account for variations in travel speeds due to highway grades.

ii. Volume delay functions, which reflect congestion effects and travel speed variances, were coded into the model.

iii. Nine traffic analysis zones (TAZ) were coded into the EMME model to represent the main origins and destinations within the study area.

iv. Travel between the TAZ’s was estimated using a combination of BC MoTI highway traffic data and intersection counts that were conducted for previous studies.

v. An econometric model was developed to estimate future growth in travel demand. A number of variables were tested, but ultimately future traffic growth was correlated with population data for the Alberni Health Administrative Area.

vi. A binary logit model was developed to estimate diversion from Highway 4 to the HLC, using the previously estimated peak hour travel times as key inputs.

4.3 Key Findings The diversion model estimated that approximately 21 percent of the existing trips on Highway 4 will divert to the HLC. Figure 4‐1 summarizes the anticipated percentage distribution of traffic in the outbound and inbound directions for the Base Case & Highway 4 Improvements, and the proposed HLC. The traffic distribution exhibits the following characteristics:

8 percent of total traffic demand to/from Port Alberni originates from or is destined to north Vancouver Island (shown in yellow); 92 percent of total traffic demand to/from Port Alberni originates from or is destined to south Vancouver Island (shown in green).

In the Base Case and the Highway 4 improvement option, outbound (from Port Alberni) traffic travels east along Highway 4, and cannot proceed north or south until the intersection with Highway 19. Similarly, inbound (to Port Alberni) traffic travels north‐south along Highway 19 to the intersection with Highway 4.

In the HLC option:

– All traffic (8 percent) destined to or originating from north Vancouver Island is expected to divert to the HLC.

– Most of the traffic (79 percent) destined to or originating from south Vancouver Island is expected to remain on Highway 4.

– The remaining traffic destined to or originating from south Vancouver Island will divert to the HLC.

TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING


As a result of the anticipated traffic diversion, there is a net increase in two‐way traffic along the segment of Highway 19 between the HLC and Highway 4), specifically:

– In the outbound (from Port Alberni) direction, 8 percent of northbound traffic no longer uses Highway 4 and that segment of Highway 19. That decrease is more than offset by the 13 percent of southbound traffic that uses the HLC.

– In the inbound (to Port Alberni) direction, traffic from the north (8 percent) no longer uses that segment of Highway 19, but that is more than offset by traffic from the south (13 percent) that uses the HLC.

Understanding the nature of this traffic diversion and resulting re‐distribution is key to making sense of the ensuing benefits (i.e., travel times, vehicle operating costs, safety) calculations presented in Section 9 of this report.

TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING


Percentage Distribution of Traffic – Outbound (from Port Alberni) Percentage Distribution of Traffic – Inbound (to Port Alberni) Assumed Opening Year (2027) Two‐Way Traffic Volumes

Base Case & Highway 4

Improvements

Highway AADT HLC n/a

Hwy 4 10,050 Hwy 19 11,350

HLC

Highway AADT HLC 2,100 Hwy 4 7,950 Hwy 19 11,800

Difference

Figure 4‐1. Percentage Distribution of Outbound and Inbound Traffic

Legend To/from north To/from south

# % of total trips in direction shown

N N

N N

N N


5. Design Criteria

5.1 Overview This section summarizes the basic geometry and cross section characteristics that would be used for the design of the proposed HLC, and the improvements along Highway 4.

5.2 Proposed Horne Lake Connector The design of the proposed HLC would be for a 80 km/h, RAU highway from the Inland Island Highway 19 to Port Alberni. The proposed HLC will join Highway 19 at the Horne Lake Road Intersection. Based on the projected traffic volumes a two lane roadway will be sufficient to provide a good level of service. The recommended design criteria for the HLC, presented in Table 5‐1, is based on the BC MoTI standard for a Rural Arterial (BC Supplement to TAC, Figure 440.B).

In addition to the above general criteria the design for the HLC should also consider additional enhancements in Section 1, which commences at Highway 4 in Port Alberni to Horne Lake Caves (also see Section 5.3.1). The long, steep grades in Section 1 will require climbing lanes, brake check facilities, and runaway lane facilities. Further, consideration should be given to providing downhill auxiliary lanes if no passing opportunities are available.

Table 5‐1. Recommended Design Criteria for the Proposed Horne Lake Connector

Design Elements Proposed Design Values Comments/Notes

Functional Classification RAU Rural Arterial Undivided, Figure 440.B

Design Speed (km/h) 80

Posted Speed (km/h) 80

Minimum Horizontal Curve Radius (m) 250

Minimum Stopping Sight Distance (m) Sag 85 TAC Table 2.1.3.4

Minimum Stopping Sight Distance (m) Crest 140 BC Supplement Table 330.F

Minimum “K” Factor, Sag V.C. 25‐32 TAC Table 2.1.3.4, Headlight control

Minimum “K” Factor, Crest V.C. 36‐50 BC Supplement Table 330.F, taillight/rock

Maximum Superelevation (%) 6

Maximum Gradient (%) 6 Preferred

Lane Width (m) 3.6

Median Width (m) N/A

Paved Shoulder Width (m) 1.5 BC MoTI design guidelines recommend 2.0 m shoulders; however, existing Hwy 4 has 1.5 m shoulders.

Clear Zone Width (m) 9.0

Design Vehicle WB20

Drainage Open ditch

DESIGN CRITERIA


5.3 Highway 4 Highway 4 is classified as a RAU highway and the challenging terrain requires a number of sections with speed advisories and curve warning signs due to constrained horizontal and vertical alignment. The highway is generally posted at 80 km/h, but has some speed advisories as low as 40 km/h.

Where improvements are warranted, it is recommended that they be focused on intersection and paved shoulder improvements; short sections of realignment to improve sight lines; and the extension of existing climbing lanes. Design criteria should generally follow those for a RAU with an 80 km/h design speed. Intersections should be provided with turn lanes off the highway.


6. Proposed Horne Lake Connector

The concept design developed by Binnie for the Port Alberni Port Authority begins on the east side of Vancouver Island at the Highway 19/Horne Lake Road intersection, continues along Horne Lake Road and the Horne Lake Cave Road to the Horne Lake Caves Provincial Park and then follows a new proposed route that connects to Highway 4 near the Old Nanaimo Highway Road and Highway 4 Intersection, known as the Lacy Lake Route. Binnie’s report includes the proposed route alignment and associated construction cost estimate.

As part of this study, CH2M reviewed Binnie’s design and cost estimate to identify any potential improvements such changes to horizontal and vertical alignment, climbing lanes, and access management.

6.1 Lacy Lake Route The Lacy Lake Route is 27.7 km in length. Binnie’s report separates the proposed HLC into three sections, illustrated in Figure 6‐1.

Section 1 is 13.75 km long, extending from Highway 4 at Port Alberni to Horne Lake Caves Road and is shown in Figure 6‐2. The alignment is based on an 80 km/h design speed, but includes several sections of 8 percent grades. The route traverses challenging terrain and requires significant rock and soil excavation, and embankment construction. The route crosses both the E&N Railway and the Qualicum River. Section 1 falls within the boundaries of the Alberni‐Clayoquot Regional District and the Regional District of Nanaimo.

At the east end Section 1 passes through some private properties in Port Alberni and then through land owned by Island Timberlands. At the west end the HLC alignment goes through the Horne Lake Caves Provincial Park and the Horne Lake Regional Park, which is under the jurisdiction of the Regional District of Nanaimo.

PROPOSED HORNE LAKE CONNECTOR


Figure 6‐1. Proposed Horne Lake Connector See Figure 6‐3 for alternate alignment through Section 2



6.1.1 Horne Lake Connector: Section 1

Figure 6‐2. Section 1 – Proposed Horne Lake Connector



Section 2 is 9.4 km long and follows the existing Horne Lake Caves Road and Horne Lake Road to the intersection with Illusion Lake Road and is shown in Figure 6‐3. This section follows the existing gravel



road that provides access to the Horne Lake Caves Provincial Park and the Horne Lake Regional Park (Figure 6‐4) as well as a number of private cabins including part of the Horne Lake Community strata. According to the Horne Lake Community Association, there are 42 driveways serving 119 cottages along Horne Lake Caves Road. The strata also owns 3,200 acres of privately managed forests adjacent to the strata lands.

The Horne Lake Caves Road and Horne Lake Road are gravel roads that vary in width from approximately 8 m to 10 m. The Horne Lake Caves Road has some narrow sections with steep down slopes where the road is adjacent to Horne Lake.

Figure 6‐4. Section 2 – Existing Gravel Road Between Qualicum River and Horne Lake Caves Road

Section 2 passes by Mount Mark which is the site of a historic rockfall event, shown in Figure 6‐5. There is evidence of large boulders adjacent to the road that may have originated from Mount Mark.



Figure 6‐5. Section 2 –View of Mount Mark Slide





Section 3, shown in Figure 6‐6, follows the existing Horne Lake Road between Illusion Lake Road and Highway 19, a distance of approximately 4.1 km. A good portion of this section is already paved and in reasonable condition, but there are segments that have speed advisories as low as 40 km/h. Some of these segments of Horne Lake Road will need to be re‐aligned to meet the design criteria.

A new bridge has just been constructed across the Big Qualicum River below the Horne Lake Dam. The bridge deck does not meet the width of the proposed HLC design criteria and necessity of widening of the bridge should be considered in further design studies.

For the Horne Lake Connector, as shown in Figure 6‐7:

Alignment starts at Sta 10+00, Summit is Sta 57+00 – Elevation 388 m

Eastbound climbing lane starts at Sta 15+00, ends at Sta 58+00, length 4.3 km, max grade 8% with sustained grades in excess of 5%

Westbound climbing lane stars at is Sta 117+00, ends at Sta 55+00, Length 6.2 km, max grade is 8% with sustained grades in excess of 5%.



Figure 6‐7. HLC Elevation Profile (adapted from: R.F. Binnie & Associates, 2012)

6.2 Utilities There are no BC Hydro nor Telus services to the properties along Horne Lake. The only major utility infrastructure installation that has been identified along the proposed section of the HLC route is a Fortis gas pipeline running along Horne Lake Caves Road. The potential impacts to the gas pipeline due to the construction of the HLC cannot be identified at this stage.

Figure 6‐8. Fortis Gas Pipeline along Horne Lake Caves Road

Hwy 4 at Coombs Country Candy

Max grade 8%

Summit Elev = 388m

Max grade 8%

Max grade 8%

Qualicum RiverBridge

100

200

300

400

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160


7. Proposed Highway 4 Improvements

7.1 Overview The Highway 4 corridor will remain an important east‐west transportation route, regardless of whether the proposed HLC is built. This section presents a summary of the suggested improvements to Highway 4 to further improve safety, mobility, and reliability on Highway 4 between Highway 19 and Port Alberni. The improvements include a variety of design solutions such as extending passing lanes and removing parking along the highway.

Many of the improvements are at locations identified in the Highway 4 Safety Review (Opus, 2009), and from a drive‐through tour conducted with BC MoTI staff in summer 2015. In addition, commentary is provided on the conceptual design of the HLC undertaken by Binnie in October 2012.

Table 7‐1 lists the 13 improvement projects along Highway 4 that were developed as part of this study. A detailed description of the improvements and conceptual design drawings are included in Appendix F.

Table 7‐1. Summary of Proposed Highway 4 Improvements

Project Title Description

1 WB Acceleration Lane at Hwy 4/Hwy 19 I/C Provide acceleration lane for Hwy 19 SB to Hwy 4 WB

2 Hilliers Road Park and Ride Provide Park and ride facility

3 Britain Boulevard Intersection Provide median turning lane

4 Little Qualicum Falls Park Entrance Realignment Extend passing lane, improve alignment and intersection

5 Keon Road Realignment Realign hwy and extend passing lane

6 Gravel Pit Turnaround Provide turnaround for EB and WB traffic

7 Cameron Lake Beach Access Realign Hwy, improve intersection and provide off‐hwy parking

7A Angel Rock Widen Hwy to provide wider shoulders

8 Beaufort Rest Area Realign Hwy, improve intersection and provide off‐hwy parking

9 Cathedral Grove Parking Area Improve parking off‐hwy and pedestrian safety

10 Chain‐Up Facility Provide chain‐up facility for commercial vehicles includes U‐turn

11 Realignment and Passing Lane Extension Extend passing lane

12 Passing Lane Extension Extend passing lane

Figure 7‐1 shows the elevation profile of Highway 4, between Port Alberni and the intersection at Highway 4A:

1) Km 6.6 to Km 10, High point elevation approximately 210 m.

a. Westbound climbing lane, Km 6.7 to Km 7.6, Length 900 m, Max grade approximately 6%. Note length of grade is approximately 1.5 km as climbing lane starts part way up the hill and ends before crest of hill.

b. Eastbound climbing lane, Km 9.9 to Km 8.9, Length 1.0 km, Max grade approximately 6%.

PROPOSED HIGHWAY 4 IMPROVEMENTS


Figure 7‐1. Highway 4 Elevation Profile (Port Alberni to Highway 4A Junction)

2) Km 21 to Km 31, High point elevation approximately 431 m

a. Westbound climbing lane, Km 22.1 to Km 23.9, Length 1.8 km, Max grade approximately 8%. Note length of grade is approximately 2.5 km as climbing lane starts part way up the hill and ends before crest of hill.

b. Eastbound climbing lane, Km 30.5 to Km 25.5, Length 5.0 km, Max grade approximately 8% but only for a short section, grade is generally less than 6%

EB climbinglane begins

EB climbinglane ends

LKI Km 24.1(Max. Elev = 431)

WB climbinglane ends

WB climbinglane begins LKI Km 8

(Elev ~ 210)

100

200

300

400

500

5+000 10+000 15+000 20+000 25+000 30+000 35+000


8. Cost Estimates

8.1 Overview This section summarizes how project cost estimates were developed for both the proposed HLC and Highway 4 improvements. The cost estimates were developed based on mapping information provided by the Regional District of Nanaimo and using typical unit rates obtained from the BC MoTI Cost Estimating database. No field survey or geotechnical investigation was conducted in the preparation of the cost estimates.

8.2 Approach to Cost Estimating A similar approach was taken to developing cost estimates for the proposed HLC and Highway 4 improvements as described below.

8.2.1 Construction Cost Estimates The construction cost estimates include:

Allowance for mobilization, traffic management, and quality management costs.

Earthwork quantities for Type D and Type A materials were developed using contour information and end areas from typical cross‐sections.

Allowance for drainage structures

The unit cost for the cast‐in‐place retaining walls required for Project 7A on Hwy 4 was estimated to be $4,000 per square metre (m2).

Allowance for electrical and signing installation where required. In addition, the cost estimate for Project 9, Cathedral Grove, Hwy 4, included the cost of installing pedestrian activated flashing lights for the crosswalk.

8.2.2 Other Project Costs In addition to the estimated construction costs, there are a number of additional cost items that have been included.

Property Acquisition

For the proposed HLC, Binnie estimated the property costs to be 3 percent of the construction cost. CH2M estimated the area of land required to construct the proposed HLC and utilized property rates provided by BC MoTI to estimate the value of the property required for the road.

For Highway 4, property costs have not been included as most projects appear to fit within existing highway ROW. For the projects that require additional ROW, the properties impacted are undeveloped land or within the MacMillan or Little Qualicum Falls Provincial Parks. The overall property costs are considered to be included in the project contingencies.

More detailed design and assessments are required to more accurately determine actual property impacts and associated costs.

COST ESTIMATES


Contingencies

A contingency was added to the cost estimate prepared for each section of the proposed HLC. The contingency varies from 35 percent to 50 percent as described in Section 8.3.

With the conceptual level of design completed for the Highway 4 Improvement Projects, a contingency allowance of 50 percent was included to account for items and conditions unknown at this level of design. Additional and unforeseen items could include items such as:

Subexcavation in soft soils Additional haul for embankment materials or gravels Gravel pit development Utility relocation Environmental mitigation Archeological remediation

It should also be noted that the size of the projects can impact the unit rates. Typically, small projects can have much higher unit rates than larger projects. Combining some of the smaller projects together to create larger contract packages could be an effective approach to achieving more competitive construction prices.

Engineering and Project Delivery

The engineering and project delivery cost includes all design, construction supervision and BC MoTI project management costs for a project and was assumed to be 30 percent of the total construction cost estimate.

Engineering costs include the costs of engineering design services required for preliminary and detailed design, legal and topographic survey, geotechnical investigation, pavement analysis, and environmental and archaeological impact assessment.

Construction supervision costs include activities such as site staff, administration, materials testing, monitoring, accommodation, and travel costs.

Project delivery costs include project management and coordination costs incurred by BC MoTI throughout the lifecycle of the project from conception through to construction close‐out.

8.3 Cost Estimate for the Proposed HLC CH2M developed a cost estimate for the proposed HLC using the estimate prepared by Binnie for the “Lacy Lake Route” as the basis. This section outlines some of the modifications made to that original estimate.

8.3.1 Section 1

Unit Rates

Generally the unit rates used by Binnie are consistent with the rates used by CH2M except for:

Aggregate costs Asphalt concrete Concrete roadside barrier

COST ESTIMATES


Climbing Lanes

Binnie’s estimate did not include for climbing lanes in Section 1. The profile in Section 1 includes long, steep gradients. On these long, steep grades heavy vehicles would rapidly lose speed. For eastbound traffic there is a 4.3 km climb to the HLC Summit with grades of 8 percent. Eastbound trucks would drop from a travel speed of 80 km/h to 22.5 km/h in 1.3 km. For westbound traffic there is a 6.2 km climb to the summit, again with some sections as steep as 8 percent. WB trucks would drop to 28 km/h in 1.0 km. CH2M recommends that a 4.3 km EB climbing lane and a 6.2 km WB climbing lanes be provided in Section 1. The cost of constructing climbing lanes has been included in the updated estimate.

Runaway Facilities

As noted under Climbing Lanes the HLC route includes long, steep grades. With a curvilinear alignment designed for 80 km/h, runaway lanes will be an important safety feature for heavy commercial vehicles. For EB traffic the downgrade from the summit will be 6.2 km long and for WB traffic the downgrade will be 4.3 km long. With these long, steep grades it is very likely that a commercial vehicle with failed brakes could exceed 80 kph design speed of the roadway. CH2M recommends that one EB and one WB runaway lane be considered in the cost estimate. The runaway facilities would preferably be the gravel arrestor bed type as these facilities are more effective than the gravitational type runaway facilities.

Brake Check Facilities

Another feature on highways with long steep grades is the necessity for brake check facilities. Brake check pullouts are placed at start of the downgrade to provide commercial vehicle operators a safe location to check brake operations before beginning the descent.

Concrete Roadside Barrier

Binnie has indicated that CRB would only be required on high fills. However, BC MoTI design guidelines would require CRB where clear zone requirements are not met. Therefore the updated cost estimate includes for CRB along all fill sections which could be one side of the whole length of Section 1 or 13,750 m.

Structures

Binnie proposed two major structures in Section 1: a multi‐plate arch for the existing rail crossing and a bridge over the Big Qualicum River. The alignment across the Big Qualicum River indicates that a curved structure would likely be required. CH2M recommends that a unit rate of $4,500/m2 be used for a curved structure. In addition, Binnie’s estimate is based on 720 m2 bridge (70 m long 10.2 m wide). The 10.2 m width does not allow room for bridge parapets nor sidewalks. To accommodate parapets the bridge deck would have to a minimum of 11.4 m wide making the overall bridge deck area 800 m2.

Binnie also included a 2.0 m diameter culvert for the crossing of a creek that is a tributary to the Big Qualicum River above Horne Lake. Environmental regulations may require that this crossing be a bridge instead of a culvert.

Contingency

Binnie used a contingency of 16 percent on the construction costs. CH2M recommends that the contingency be increased to 35 percent as the design is still very conceptual.

Based on the above comments and modifications, CH2M’s cost estimate for Section 1 is $56,807,000 (capital cost) + $968,000 (property cost) = $57,775,000.

COST ESTIMATES


8.3.2 Section 2 Binnie based the cost estimate for Section 2 on $1,000,000/km construction cost assuming re‐grading and paving of the existing road. Given the significant challenges with terrain, potential rockfall, and private accesses, this estimate is considered to be low.

It is unlikely that widening the existing Horne Lake Caves Road in the vicinity of the private lake front properties would be supported by Horne Lake Community. Therefore, CH2M recommends that a 3.5 km alternate alignment that moves the HLC away from Horne Lake Caves Road adjacent to the lake front properties be considered. With this change, Horne Lake Caves Road would become a frontage road providing access to the properties. Allowance has been made for three intersections to connect the HLC to Horne Lake Caves Road.

To develop a cost estimate for Section 2, CH2M used Binnie’s estimate for Section 2 and applied a factor to increase the quantities for the 5.9 km length for upgrading Horne Lake Caves Road. For the 3.5 km alternate alignment, CH2M used the cost per km from Section 1 as the terrain and construction challenges would be very similar. The contingency allowance was also increased to 50 percent due to the conceptual level of design for this section. Based on the above, the updated cost estimate for Section 2 is $27,290,000 (capital cost) + $1,234,000 (property cost) = $28,524,000.

8.3.3 Section 3 For the review of Section 3, CH2M applied the same unit rates that were used in the review of Section 1. The key differences between CH2M’s estimate and Binnie’s were:

The asphalt quantity was adjusted to be consistent with the proposed road template. This change resulted in an increase in asphalt quantity by a factor of almost 2.7.

A Contingency of 35 percent was used.

With the adjustments noted above, the updated cost estimate for Section 3 is $5,437,000 (capital cost) + $92,000 (property cost) = $5,529,000.

8.3.4 Summary CH2M’s review of the cost estimates for HLC – Lacy Lake Route indicates that the project cost for the route would be approximately $89.5 million (capital cost) + $2.3 million (property cost) = $91.8 million. A comparison between CH2M’s cost estimate and Binnie’s cost estimate is shown in Table 8‐1. The property acquisition costs for the HLC included in CH2M cost estimates are based on a price per hectare provided by BC MoTI’s Property Services staff whereas Binnie used an estimate of 3 percent for property acquisition costs, which is considered low.

Potential impacts to the existing Fortis gas line were highlighted in Section 6.2. The costs of relocation or impact mitigation are considered to be included in the contingency allowance for each section of HLC. No other major utility relocations are anticipated.

Table 8‐1. Summary of Cost Estimates for Horne Lake Connector

Section CH2M Cost Estimate Binnie Cost Estimate Difference

Section 1 $57,775,000 $36,441,000 $21,334,000

Section 2 $28,524,000 $9,400,000 $19,124,000

Section 3 $5,529,000 $4,120,000 $1,409,000

Total Project $91,828,000 $49,961,000 $41,867,000

COST ESTIMATES


8.4 Cost Estimate for Highway 4 Improvements The project estimates for the Highway 4 improvements were broken into:

Construction Cost Estimates for the major items relating to the construction costs for each project.

Other Project Costs related to general project contingencies and engineering, project management and construction supervision as described in Section 8.2.2 above.

Using the cost estimating methodology outlined in Section 8.2, cost estimates were derived for the 13 improvement projects along Highway 4. These are summarized in Table 8‐2. Each of these projects could be delivered independently, with the exception of Project 5 – Koen Road Realignment and Project 6 – Gravel Pit Turnaround which should be constructed as one project.

Table 8‐2. Summary of Cost Estimates for Highway 4 Improvements

Project Description Location

Total Cost LKI Segment km

1 WB Acceleration Lane at Hwy 4/Hwy 19 I/C 2356 0 $284,000

2 Hilliers Road Park and Ride 2356 $498,000

3 Britain Boulevard Intersection 2355 3.7 $328,000

4 Little Qualicum Falls Park Entrance Realignment 2355 6.6 $1,816,000

5 Keon Road Realignment 2355 7.5 $3,693,000

6 Gravel Pit Turnaround 2355 8.5 $1,010,000

7 Cameron Lake Beach Access 2355 10.5 $1,705,000

7A Angel Rock 2355 12.7 $4,917,000

8 Beaufort Rest Area 2355 13.5 $2,983,000

9 Cathedral Grove Parking Area 2355 17.5 $1,362,000

10 Chain‐Up Facility 2355 20.5 $1,302,000

11 Realignment and Passing Lane Extension 2355 22 to 23 $2,651,000

12 Passing Lane Extension 2355 25 $1,570,000

Total Proposed Project Costs Estimates $24,119,000


9. Multiple Account Evaluation

9.1 Overview A MAE is a multi‐criteria decision framework designed to:

Compare options Provide a holistic view of all pertinent impacts Present trade‐offs in a clear and transparent manner

The MAE process, outlined in Appendix 4 of BC MoTI’s Guidelines for Preparing Business Cases, categorizes key evaluation criteria into five separate accounts, shown schematically in Figure 9‐1. The MAE compares the three options over a set evaluation period:

1. Base Case – continuing regular operations and maintenance of Highway 4, without improvements;

2. Proposed HLC – building the new HLC and continuing regular operations and maintenance of Highway 4.

3. Highway 4 Improvements – implementing 13 improvement projects along Highway 4 to increase safety, reliability, and capacity;

Figure 9‐1. Multiple Account Evaluation Framework

Financial

Customer Service

Social / Community

Environmental

Economic Multiple Account Evaluation

MULTIPLE ACCOUNT EVALUATION


Typically, an MAE process is conducted using an analysis period of 25 years, which assumes 1 year for construction and 24 years of benefits. Based on the implementation plan discussed in Section 9.2, the short‐term Highway 4 improvement projects will take a minimum of 5 years to complete, resulting in the operations and maintenance (O&M) costs and benefits not starting until 2021. For the long‐term projects and the HLC option, these costs and benefits will not begin until 2027 due to the 11 year period required for planning, design, permitting, and construction.

In order to maintain a minimum of 24 years of benefits for all options, a 35‐year analysis period has been assumed for this study, starting in 2016 and ending in 2050. As a result, the short‐term projects will accrue 30 years of benefits (2021 through 2050), while the long‐term projects and the HLC will accrue 24 years of benefits (2027 through 2050).

9.2 Implementation Plan The implementation plan described below summarizes the assumptions that were made on the timeframe required to design and construct either the improvements to Highway 4 or to complete the HLC. The implementation plan assumptions have been based on the requirements for the business case conducted under this study, and may not be the approach ultimately adopted if the project(s) proceed.

9.2.1 Proposed Horne Lake Connector It is estimated that the planning, design, permitting and approvals for the HLC would take a minimum of five years to complete, which means that construction would not commence until 2021 at the earliest. Subject to available funding, the proposed construction scenario assumes that construction would start at Highway 19 and work west towards Port Alberni. The following construction durations and periods have been assumed:

Section 3 – one year of construction, starting in 2021 (assumes planning, design and permitting is complete in 2020)

Section 2 – two years of construction during 2022 and 2023 Section 1 – three years of construction during 2024 through 2026

Based on these assumptions, the proposed HLC would not be open to traffic until the end of 2026 and no benefits can be applied to this route until construction is complete.

9.2.2 Highway 4 Improvements With reference to the projects described in Section 5.2, it is assumed that Projects 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, and 12 can be designed and built along Highway 4 in the short‐term given that they are lower cost options and would take less time to plan, design, obtain necessary permits, and construct. For the purposes of this study, it is assumed the short‐term projects could all be complete within five years and would be open to traffic in 2021.

Projects 2, 7, 7A, 8, 9, and 11 are considered to be longer term projects and would not be constructed until after all short‐term projects have been completed. Assuming it will take six years to plan, design, obtain necessary permits, and construct the long‐term options, all Highway 4 improvements can be completed and open to traffic in 2027.



9.3 Financial Account The financial account is comprised of three components: capital cost, O&M costs, and salvage value. The underlying assumptions for this analysis were as follows:

All costs reported in 2015 Canadian dollars

35‐year planning horizon to account for the time needed to design and construct the HLC

Inflation/Consumer Price Index adjustment of 2.1 percent per year based on Conference Board of Canada projections

Discount rate of 6 percent in accordance with BC MoTI guidelines.

9.3.1 Capital Costs The cost estimates for the Highway 4 Improvements ($24.1 million) and for the HLC ($91.8 million) are described in Section 8. There are no capital costs associated with the Base Case.

9.3.2 Operations and Maintenance Costs O&M costs are based on BC MoTI’s Default Values for Benefit Cost Analysis in British Columbia – 2012. O&M costs take into account the net present value (NPV) of regular road maintenance and road resurfacing (15‐year cycle). It has been assumed that Projects 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, and 12 are short‐term projects and can be implemented within the next 5 years. Therefore, the maintenance costs for these short‐term Highway 4 Improvements would begin in 2021 and continue through to 2050. The remaining projects, along with the HLC, would take 11 years to complete, resulting in the corresponding O&M period beginning in 2027. HLC O&M costs are higher since that option adds lane kilometers to existing Maintenance Agreements.

9.3.3 Salvage Value Road infrastructure is typically designed to last much longer than the planning analysis period. 35 years into the future, these assets will still be worth in the order of 70‐90 percent of what they cost to build. The Salvage Value is the Present Value of this future worth. The Salvage Value is assumed to be 20 percent of the capital costs.

9.3.4 Property Impacts Geometric realignment associated with the Highway 4 improvements results may result in some minor impacts on MacMillan or Little Qualicum Falls Provincial Parks. The HLC could have potentially significant impacts on properties along Horne Lake Caves Road and Horne Lake Road, E&N Railway, and Island Timberlands lands.

9.4 Customer Service Account

9.4.1 Travel Times Some of the improvement projects proposed for Highway 4 will result in some travel time savings (e.g., climbing lane extension allowing passenger vehicles to pass slow moving trucks). However, these benefits are localized over short distances, and are only realized when there are vehicles and trucks

Present Value is the current worth of a future sum of money or cash flow given a specified rate of return (in this case 6 percent). It provides a common basis for comparing investment options.



travelling that segment concurrently. Therefore, for the purposes of this analysis, these savings are assumed to be negligible.

A comparison of the travel times and distances between the existing Highway 4 route and the HLC route is provided in Figure 9‐2. These distances and times were estimated using the travel demand model discussed in Section 4. Currently, it takes approximately 38 minutes to travel between Port Alberni (zones 1,000 and 2,000) and the north (zones 7,000 and 8,000) via the existing Highway 4 route. With the HLC route, it will take approximately 23 minutes to travel between these destinations, resulting in a travel time savings of 16 minutes. For traffic travelling between Port Alberni and the south (zones 4,000, 5,000, and 6,000), the current travel time via Highway 4 is approximately 30 minutes while the travel time via the HLC would be just over 31 minutes. For traffic traveling to/from the south, the HLC route would result in an increase in travel time of approximately 1 minute.

Figure 9‐2. Travel Distance and Time Comparison between Highway 4 and the HLC

Assuming a diversion rate of 21 percent to the HLC, a traffic growth rate of 1.5 percent per year, and a value of time of $13 per hour (in 2015 $), the following travel time impacts are determined:

The HLC will generate $12.1 million in travel time savings for traffic travelling to/from the north. This assumes that travel time benefits start in 2027, after the entire HLC alignment has been constructed and is open to traffic.

There will be an increase of $1.6 million in travel time costs for traffic travelling to/from the south.

Overall, the HLC will result in a net travel time benefit of $10.6 million over the 35‐year analysis period.



9.4.2 Vehicle Operating Costs Since the Highway 4 improvements do not result in an overall change in vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT), it is assumed that there will be no change in vehicle operating costs for this option.

Currently, traffic travelling between Port Alberni and the north is required to travel 48.4 km, as shown in Figure 9‐2. With the HLC, this distance will be reduced to 26.3 km, a net savings of 22.1 km. However, traffic travelling to/from the south via the HLC will experience an increase in travel of 6.7 km as a result of the additional travel along Highway 19.

Using the same assumptions to those discussed in the previous section, and an average vehicle operating cost of $0.17 per km (in 2015 $):

There will be a savings of $13.4 million in vehicle operating costs for traffic travelling to the north via the HLC.

There will also be an increase in vehicle operating costs of $6.4 million for traffic travelling to the south via the HLC.

Overall, there will be a net vehicle operating cost savings of $7.0 million over the 35‐year analysis period.

9.4.3 Reliability This criterion considers the impact of the options on highway network reliability performance. Specifically, Highway 4 improvements provide safety and accessibility benefits which in turn may reduce the occurrence of unplanned closures and improve reliability. The HLC provides an alternate route, enabling continuation of travel during planned and unplanned closures. Although travel to southern Vancouver Island would be longer, the benefit to the travelling public would be magnified for closures of significant duration. Additional maintenance equipment and staff may need to be deployed to realize reliability benefits associated with weather‐related closures.

9.4.4 Safety For this study, BC MoTI’s Safety‐Ben Cost tool was used to estimate the costs of collisions along the proposed HLC and Highway 4. A detailed description of the process used is included in Appendix G. Safety‐Ben includes:

Collision Prediction Models (CPMs) for British Columbia, which estimates of the collision frequency for intersections and highway segments based on the site‐specific characteristics.

Default Values for Benefit Cost Analysis in British Columbia – 2012 were used to determine the monetary values (2012 dollars) of the collisions by severity:

– Property Damage Only: $11,367 – Injury: $135,577 – Fatality: $6,385,999

Collision modification factors (CMF) were incorporated into the analysis to account for detailed design characteristics for some of the safety improvements. CMFs were sourced from:

CMF for BC 2008 – Collision Modification Factors for British Columbia, December 2008

HSM 2010 – Highway Safety Manual 2010 – 1st Edition

Based on this analysis, CH2M determined that a number of the projects proposed along Highway 4 will result in safety benefits when compared against the base conditions. The combined NPV (2015 $) of safety benefits for the Highway 4 projects is estimated to be $6.9 million over the length of the analysis period.



As mentioned in Section 4.3, the key factor that affects the safety benefits for the proposed HLC is the diversion of traffic from Highway 4. When using CPMs to predict the number of collisions on a corridor, the relationship between the traffic volume (AADT) and the resulting number of collisions is non‐linear. In other words, a constant change in AADT will result in a different number of predicted collisions depending on what the initial traffic volume was. For example, assume there is an increase in AADT of 2,000 vehicles per day on two identical corridors, where Corridor 1 has an initial AADT of 1,000 vehicles per day while Corridor 2 has an initial AADT of 20,000 vehicles per day. Based on the non‐linear relationship of CPMs, the increase in AADT will result in a much higher increase in the expected number of collisions on Corridor 1 than on Corridor 2.

For the HLC option, the initial traffic volume is 0 vehicles per day (the corridor does not currently exist) while the initial traffic volume on Highway 4 is approximately 10,000 vehicles per day in 2027 (assumed opening year for all improvements). When traffic is diverted from Hwy 4 to the HLC, the increase in predicted collisions on HLC is greater than the resulting decrease in collisions on Highway 4. Overall, the proposed HLC results in a net safety dis‐benefit of $8.5 million over the 35‐year analysis period:

Reduction in traffic on Highway 4 will decrease the predicted collisions, resulting in a positive benefit of $14.1 million.

Increase in traffic on the proposed HLC will have the opposite effect, resulting in a dis‐benefit of $22.5 million.

Similarly, increase in traffic on Highway 19 will result in a dis‐benefit of $0.1 million.

+$14.1 million ‐ $22.5 million ‐ $0.1 million = ‐$8.5 million

9.5 Social/Community Account

9.5.1 Access to Services This criterion assesses any changes in accessibility to health services and higher education. Port Alberni residents and local First Nations communities are dependent on health/ hospital services in Comox, Courtney, and/or Nanaimo. The HLC would provide an alternate route in the event of major delays along Highway 4.

9.5.2 Alignment with Official Community Plans This criterion assesses the options for consistency with existing local and regional Official Community Plans (OCP). The proposed Highway 4 improvements fit with BC MoTI’s continued commitment to operate and maintain the corridor, which is a consistent base assumption amongst area OCPs. The proposed HLC is not currently identified in the Regional District of Nanaimo’s (RDN) OCP, nor in the ACRD’s planning area OCPs (A – Bamfield, B – Beaufort, C – South Long Beach, D – Sproat Lake, E – Beaver Creek, and F – Cherry Creek).

Alternative Transportation Routes (especially the proposed HLC) is one of three priority initiatives in the ‘Connected Community’ goal in the City of Port Alberni’s Corporate Strategic Plan. And, ACRD has participated in related studies (authored by BC MoTI and the Port Alberni Port Authority [PAPA]) in the past. However, the majority of the route is located within the RDN and it is not currently mentioned in the RDN OCP.

There is an opportunity for RDN and ACRD to consider the proposed HLC in any upcoming OCP updates.



9.5.3 Property Impacts Property values along the proposed HLC corridor may increase due to improved accessibility, but enjoyment of the property may be lessened by increased traffic.

9.5.4 Parks This criterion examines potential effects on visitors’ enjoyment of Provincial and Regional parks. The Highway 4 projects will improve pedestrian safety and parking access along the highway, providing benefits to visitors of MacMillan and Little Qualicum Falls Provincial Parks. The improvements to parking at Cameron Lake Beach Access, Beaufort Rest Area, and Cathedral Grove will separate recreational traffic from Highway 4 through traffic. Diverting 21 percent of traffic off of Highway 4 will also improve user experience for busy locations such as Cathedral Grove.

As shown in Figure 9‐3, the proposed HLC bisects Horne Lake Caves Provincial Park and would increase traffic volumes and traffic speeds along Horne Lake Road and Horne Lake Caves Road, potentially impacting visitors’ enjoyment of park lands. Wider road ROW may also impact park facilities and boundaries.

Figure 9‐3. Horne Lake Connector and Nearby Park Lands

9.5.5 Recreation This criterion examines potential impacts on nearby trails and camp sites. The Highway 4 improvements would have localized impacts on some Cathedral Grove trails. The proposed HLC would have more significant impacts on nearby trails and camp sites as it traverses through both Horne Lake Caves



Provincial Park and Horne Lake Regional Park. However, it may provide improved access to other park facilities including the Canadian Heritage Trail.

9.6 Environmental Account

9.6.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions This criterion compares travel‐related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with each of the options. The key variable in this comparison is VKT. An average GHG emission factor (per distance driven) is applied (US EAP Emission Facts, 2008) to the VKT to calculate total emissions.

The GHG emissions savings associated with the HLC, over the 35‐year evaluation period, are estimated to be approximately 23,400 tonnes of CO2 based on an overall reduction in VKT. The Highway 4 improvements do not measurably change VKT, and so do not result in any travel‐related GHG emissions savings.

Lifecycle GHG emissions (embedded in materials, during construction, O&M) for the highway are not included in this assessment, since those emissions are highly dependent on the type of equipment and construction/rehabilitation practices used over the design life of the highway. A high‐level assessment of construction and O&M emissions for the HLC, based on research data compiled by the Sightline Institute (Sightline Research Backgrounder, Oct 2007), yielded emissions on the order of 72,600 tonnes of CO2, which would more than outweigh any travel‐related emissions savings.

9.6.2 Air Pollution Vehicle Criteria Air Contaminant (CAC) emissions are dependent on a multitude of factors including distance driven, speed, engine type and mode of operation. In order to enable a high level comparison of options, average emissions factors (US EPA Emission Facts, 2008) based on estimated fuel consumption have been applied. This simplifying assumption sets CAC emissions to vary directly with VKT. Estimates of incremental vehicle CAC emissions, by pollutant, are summarized in Table 9‐1. The HLC provides some CAC emissions savings over the Base Case and Highway 4 improvements.

Table 9‐1. Incremental Vehicle CAC Emissions (tonnes)

Pollutant Base Case Highway 4 Improvements Horne Lake Connector

CO – No measurable change ‐590

NOX – No measurable change ‐44

PM10 – No measurable change ‐0.27

PM2.5 – No measurable change ‐0.25

9.6.3 Agricultural Impacts There may be some ALR‐related permitting needs along the HLC alignment, as outlined in Appendix B. However, impact on ALR lands is unlikely.

9.6.4 Terrestrial (Flora/Fauna) Impacts Potential impacts to plant and sensitive species includes removal, disturbance, alteration, or loss of habitat as a result of construction of the HLC. There would be similar impacts associated with Highway 4 Improvements, but to a much lesser extent in terms of land area affected. The need for additional studies is highlighted in Section 2.4 and Appendix B.



9.6.5 Aquatic Impacts Implementation of the Highway 4 Improvements may have minor localized impacts on adjacent rivers and creeks, though any anticipated sedimentation can be mitigated by construction best practices. Construction and operations of the HLC will potentially impact Horne Lake, as well as the Qualicum River and its tributaries. The impacts will be more severe than Highway 4 improvements.

9.6.6 Water Resource Impacts This criterion assesses impacts of the options on drinking water resources. Highway 4 improvements are not expected to have any direct impacts. The HLC may have potential impacts to water sources on Lacy Lake.

9.6.7 Geotechnical Risks This criterion involves geotechnical risks such as rock slides. There are known rock fall areas along Horne Lake Caves Road and other potential areas along the proposed HLC. The Highway 4 improvements are confined to the existing corridor, so exposure to geotechnical risks does not change.

9.6.8 Archaeological and Historical Land Use This criterion considers impacts on sites of archaeological or historic significance. There are potential sensitive sites along Horne Lake Road, Horne Lake Caves Road, and the HLC, including the Canadian Heritage Trail. The Highway 4 improvements are confined to the existing corridor, so impacts to potential sensitive sites are expected to be minimal.

9.7 Economic Development Account

9.7.1 Economic Development The proposed HLC provides an alternative high speed route that improves reliability to support economic development. Benefits to goods movers are largely captured under the Customer Service account. However, increased accessibility may add to the viability of proposed initiatives such as: the Port Alberni Transshipment Hub; airport expansion; and expanded use of Port Alberni port facilities to support the resource sector.

The proposed HLC would provide easy access to North Island College which would allow more opportunities for both full‐ and part‐time post‐secondary education for Port Alberni residents.

9.7.2 Access to Regional Markets Improvements in accessibility enable a larger market to be reached from Port Alberni. This is especially true in that a more direct route to the Comox Valley and its airport provide quick, reliable, access to far larger markets. Companies looking to start up or expand to Vancouver Island consider a range of factors including costs of land/buildings and the market size that is accessible from its base of operations. A new route will make Port Alberni more attractive to those companies.

9.7.3 Impacts on Local Business Competitiveness Costs of haulage can affect competitiveness of local businesses and are used here as an indication of the competitiveness of Port Alberni. The alternative parallel access afforded by the proposed HLC may provide a benefit to local businesses, particularly as it improves reliability which is important in an era of just‐in‐time delivery.



9.8 MAE Summary Table 9‐2 provides a summary of the financial aspects of the Multiple Accounts Evaluation relative to the base case, whereas Table 9‐3 provides a summary of the non‐financial aspects of the Multiple Accounts Evaluation. An expanded assessment matrix is included in Appendix H.

Table 9‐2. MAE Summary – Financial Accounts (2015 $millions)



Costs

Capital Cost $89.5 $24.1

Property Cost $2.3 $0

O&M Expenses (2021 or 2027 start – 2050) $8.2 $1.3

Salvage Value (20% of Capital Cost) ($17.9) ($4.8)

Total Cost (Capital + O&M + Salvage) $82.1 $20.6

User Benefits

Travel Time Costs $10.6 –

Vehicle Operating Cost $7.0 –

Safety ($8.5) $6.9

Total Benefit (Travel time + Veh Ops + Safety) $9.1 $6.9

Net Present Value ($73.0) ($13.7)

Benefit – Cost Ratio 0.11 0.33

Note: All values shown are relative to the base case and (brackets) indicates a negative incremental change

The NPV represents the present value of capital and property cost estimates (less salvage value), periodic rehabilitation costs and annual operating/maintenance costs, and benefits. The NPV of the Highway 4 Improvements is estimated to be ($13.7 million) while the NPV of the HLC is estimated to be ($73.0 million). A benefit‐cost ratio of 1.0 indicates that the overall benefits of a project are equal to its costs. The analysis conducted shows that the Highway 4 Improvements will have a benefit‐cost ratio of 0.33 while the HLC results in a ratio of 0.11.



Table 9‐3. MAE Summary – Non Financial Accounts



CUSTOMER SERVICE (non‐monetized criteria)

Travel Times ● ◑

Vehicle Operating Costs ◕ ◑ Reliability (traffic) ● ◑ Reliability (weather) ◑ ◑ Safety ◔ ◕

SOCIAL/ COMMUNITY

Access to Services ● ◑ Alignment with Official Community Plans ◑ ◑ Property Impacts ◔ ◑ Parks ◔ ◕ Recreation ◕ ◑

ENVIRONMENT

GHG Emissions (Travel‐Related) ◕ ◑ Air Pollution ◕ ◑ Agricultural Impacts ◑ ◑ Terrestrial (Flora/Fauna) Impacts ○ ◔ Aquatic Impacts ◔ ◑ Water Resource Impacts ◔ ◑ Geotechnical Risks ◔ ◑ Archaeological and Historical Use ◔ ◑

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Economic Development Objectives ● ◑ Access to Regional Markets ● ◑ Impacts on Local Business Competitiveness ● ◑

Legend:

○ Much Worse

◔ Worse

◑ Neutral

◕ Better

● Much Better



9.9 Sensitivity Analysis – Financial Accounts For the two improvement options, a sensitivity analysis was undertaken for the financial accounts using the scenarios presented in Table 9‐4. The results of the sensitivity analysis are provided in Table 9‐5.

Table 9‐4. Sensitivity Analysis Scenarios

Variable Baseline Scenario

Sensitivity Scenario 1







Discount Rate 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%

Construction Variance 0% +25% ‐10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Annual Traffic Growth 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 2.0%

Diversion to HLC 21% 21% 21% 8% 15% 35% 21% 21%

Note: Values in red indicate variable that are different relative to the Baseline Scenario

Table 9‐5. Results of Sensitivity Analysis – Financial Accounts (2015 $ millions)

Option Scenario Discounted

Costs Travel Time Savings

Vehicle Operating

Cost Savings

Safety Benefits

NPV Benefit‐Cost Ratio


Baseline $20.6 ‐ ‐ $6.9 ($13.7) 0.33

Sensitivity 1 $25.5 ‐ ‐ $6.9 ($18.6) 0.27

Sensitivity 2 $18.7 ‐ ‐ $6.9 ($11.8) 0.37

Sensitivity 3 $20.6 ‐ ‐ $6.9 ($13.7) 0.33

Sensitivity 4 $20.6 ‐ ‐ $6.9 ($13.7) 0.33

Sensitivity 5 $20.6 ‐ ‐ $6.9 ($13.7) 0.33

Sensitivity 6 $20.6 ‐ ‐ $6.4 ($14.2) 0.31

Sensitivity 7 $20.6 ‐ ‐ $7.4 ($13.2) 0.36

HLC

Baseline $82.1 $10.6 $7.0 ($8.5) ($73.0) 0.11

Sensitivity 1 $100.0 $10.6 $7.0 ($8.5) ($90.9) 0.09

Sensitivity 2 $75.0 $10.6 $7.0 ($8.5) ($65.9) 0.12

Sensitivity 3 $82.1 $12.1 $13.4 ($5.7) ($62.3) 0.24

Sensitivity 4 $82.1 $11.3 $10.0 ($7.6) ($68.4) 0.17

Sensitivity 5 $82.1 $8.8 ‐ ($9.1) ($82.4) 0.00

Sensitivity 6 $82.1 $9.5 $6.3 ($7.9) ($74.2) 0.10

Sensitivity 7 $82.1 $11.8 $7.8 ($9.2) ($71.7) 0.13

Note: (Brackets) indicates a negative incremental change



Increasing the construction costs (Sensitivity Scenario 1) results in a worse NPV and benefit‐cost ratio for both the Highway 4 Improvements and the HLC when compared to the Baseline Scenario. Lowering the construction costs (Sensitivity Scenario 2) has the opposite effect, improving the NPV and benefit‐cost ratio. For the Highway 4 improvements, the benefit‐cost ratio ranges from 0.27 to 0.37. For the HLC, the benefit‐cost ratio ranges from 0.09 to 0.12.

Sensitivity Scenarios 3, 4 and 5 change the diversion rate of traffic to the HLC, which result in no change to the financial accounts for the Highway 4 improvements.

For the HLC option, reducing the diversion rate from 21 to 8 percent (Sensitivity Scenario 3) assumes only the traffic travelling to/from the north will use the HLC. This results in the maximum travel time and vehicle operating cost savings as no additional travel is assumed for traffic travelling to/from the south. Safety dis‐benefits of the base case are also reduced due to the lower traffic volume on the HLC and Highway 19. Overall, Sensitivity Scenario 3 has the best NPV and benefit‐cost ratio for the HLC option.

Sensitivity Scenario 4 reduces the diversion rate from 21 to 15 percent, which assumes less traffic travelling to/from the south will use the HLC, resulting in an increase in the travel time and vehicle operating cost benefits for this traffic. In addition, the safety dis‐benefits of the base case are reduced as a result of fewer vehicles having to travel along the HLC and Highway 19. Overall, Sensitivity Scenario 4 has a better NPV and benefit‐cost ratio when compared to the Baseline Scenario.

When the diversion rate is increased from 21 to 35 percent (Sensitivity Scenario 5), there is additional travel time encountered by the traffic travelling to/from the south, which results in a decrease of the travel time benefit. For vehicle operating costs, traffic to/from the north experiences a savings of $13.41 million. However, the additional traffic travelling to/from the south has to travel a longer distance, resulting in a dis‐benefit of $13.40 million. Overall, there is a net vehicle operating cost savings for this option of $0.01 million, which is negligible. The increase in traffic on the HLC and Highway 19 also results in a higher safety dis‐benefit. The net result is a worse NPV for this scenario when compared to the Baseline Scenario. In addition, there is an overall net dis‐benefit which results in a negative benefit‐cost ratio.

Sensitivity Scenario 6 assumes less traffic growth will occur, changing the annual traffic growth rate from 1.5 to 1.0 percent. With fewer vehicles on Highway 4, there will be a decrease in the overall safety benefits of the Highway 4 Improvements, which results in a slightly worse NPV and lower benefit‐cost ratio. A similar result is seen for the HLC option where the travel time and vehicle operating costs are reduced due to fewer vehicles experiencing these benefits. However, the overall safety benefits are increased due to a reduction in the dis‐benefits for traffic on the HLC and Highway 19. Overall, the NPV and benefit‐cost ratio do not change significantly.

Sensitivity Scenario 7 assumes the traffic growth rate will be 0.5 percent higher at 2.0 percent per year. With higher traffic volumes on Highway 4, the results are opposite to those of Sensitivity Scenario 6. There will be an increase in the overall safety benefits of the Highway 4 Improvements, which results in a slightly better NPV and higher benefit‐cost ratio. A similar result is seen for the HLC option where the travel time and vehicle operating costs are increased due to more vehicles experiencing these benefits. However, the overall safety benefits are reduced due to an increase in the dis‐benefits for traffic on the HLC and Highway 19. Overall, the NPV and benefit‐cost ratio do not change significantly.

For the Highway 4 Improvements, none of the sensitivity scenarios result in a positive NPV since the overall discounted costs for the 13 projects are still greater than the benefits. However, the benefit‐cost ratio remains positive for all scenarios and ranges from 0.27 to 0.36. Similarly, the NPV for the HLC is negative for all scenarios due to the high construction costs for this option. All of the scenarios result in positive benefit‐cost ratios, ranging from 0.00 to 0.24.


10. Summary of Findings

10.1 Overview This section summarizes the work completed under this study to assess alternatives to the existing Highway 4 between Highway 19 and Port Alberni, and presents some considerations for further study of the options.

10.2 Summary The purpose of this study was to assess the benefits of an improved Highway 4 with an alternative route known as the HLC. The study assessed:

The option of continuing regular O&M of Highway 4 without improvements, against

Implementing various improvement projects along Highway 4 to increase safety, reliability, and capacity of the existing corridor, against

Building a new HLC route that would provide improved access and reliability when compared to the existing Highway 4 corridor.

The Highway 4 improvements have a NPV of ($13.7 million) compared with a NPV for the HLC of ($73.0 million) over the 35‐year analysis period. These negative NPVs indicate that the cost of constructing, operating, and maintaining either option exceed the financial user benefits that have been measured.

A benefit cost ratio was calculated for each option and was determined to be 0.33 for the Highway 4 improvements and 0.11 for the HLC.

In addition, a MAE was completed on each option to assess the impacts of each option on non‐financial aspects. The MAE summarized in Table 7‐4 indicates that there are advantages and disadvantages associated with each option. Understanding the impacts of these accounts is of great importance to local government and stakeholders.

In summary:

The Highway 4 improvements provide localized safety, accessibility, and reliability benefits. However, these benefits are outweighed by the capital and O&M costs of implementing the individual projects. Improvements could be readily implemented and staged as funding becomes available.

The HLC would be an alternative route that provides travel time and vehicle operating cost savings. However, the capital and O&M costs of the HLC are significantly greater than these potential benefits.

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS


10.3 Further Considerations There are a number of potential project risk items that should to be addressed if either the improvements to Highway 4 are advanced or if the HLC is developed further. The risks considered to have the most significant impact upon construction cost and schedule fall into the following categories:

Archaeological Planning and Design Environment Third Parties Properties Construction

These risks should be addressed as early as possible during the design development process. Further details of the issue, possible impacts to the overall project, and suggested strategy are provided in Appendix I.


11. References

American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO). 2010. Highway Safety Manual. 1st Edition.

Apex Engineering Limited. December 2012. Default Values for Benefit Cost Analysis in British Columbia. Prepared for BC Ministry of Transportation Planning and Programming Branch.

Apex Engineering Limited. October 2014. Business Case: Horne Lake Connector – Highway 19 to Highway 4.

British Columbia Ministry of Environment. 2012. Develop with Care: Environmental Guidelines for Urban and Rural Land Development in British Columbia. Website: www.env.gov.bc.ca/wld/BMP/bmpintro.html. Accessed: October 2015.

British Columbia Ministry of Forests. 2002. Vancouver Island Summary Land Use Plan. Website: https://www.for.gov.bc.ca/tasb/slrp/plan90.html. Accessed: October 2015.

British Columbia Ministry of Forests. 2003. Karst Management Handbook for British Columbia. Victoria, British Columbia.

British Columbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure – South Coast Region. July 2012. Horne Lake Connector Updated Assessment – Final Summary Report.

CH2M HILL Canada Limited. 2015. Highway 4 Potential Improvements. October 6.

Government of British Columbia. 2015. iMapBC. DataBC. Website: wttp://www.data.gov.bc.ca/dbc/geographic/view_and_analyze/imapbc/index.page. Accessed: October 2015.

ND LEA Consultants Ltd. – Consulting Engineers. August 2005. Horne Lake Connector Study: Conceptual Design and Construction Cost Estimate.

Opus International Consultants (Canada) Limited. February 2009. Highway 4 Safety Review. Final Report.

Opus International Consultants (Canada) Limited. 2009. Highway 4 Safety Review. February.

Penny, J. and R. Klinkenberg. 2012. Protocols for Rare Plant Surveys (Red‐ and Blue‐listed Species) in E‐Flora BC: Electronic Atlas of the Plants of British Columbia. Lab for Advanced Spatial Analysis, Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC. Website: www.geog.ubc.ca/biodiversity/eflora/ProtocolsforRarePlantSurveys.html. Accessed: October 2015.

Province of British Columbia and Invasive Species Council of British Columbia. 2013. Best Practices for Managing Invasive Plants on Roadsides. Website: http://www.th.gov.bc.ca/invasiveplant/documents/Invasive_Plants_Pocket_Guide.pdf. Accessed: October 2015.

R.F. Binnie & Associates Ltd. 2012. Highway 19 Connector to Highway 4 via Horne & Lacey Lake Route Study – Conceptual Design and Cost Estimate. Final Report. October.

R.F. Binnie & Associates, Ltd. 2012. Highway 19 Connector to Highway 4. Haggard Route Coupled with Lacey Lake Route Study. Conceptual Design and Cost Estimate. October.

Sayed, Tarek and Paul de Leur. 2008. Collision Modification Factors for British Columbia. Prepared for Engineering Branch – BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure.

REFERENCES


Sayed, Tarek and Paul de Leur. 2008. Collision Prediction Models for British Columbia. Prepared for Engineering Branch – BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure.

Sightline Research Backgrounder. 2007. Increases in greenhouse‐gas emissions from highway‐widening projects. Website: http://smartgrowthamerica.org/RP_docs/Sightline_widening_emissions.pdf.

US EPA Emission Facts. 2008. Average Annual Emissions and Fuel Consumption for Gasoline‐Fueled Passenger Cars and Light Trucks. Office of Transportation and Air Quality EPA420‐F‐08‐024. Website: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/consumer/420f08024.pdf.

Appendix A Horne Lake Connector Study –

Geotechnical Input – Mount Mark Rockfall Assessment

May 2, 2016 File: 17-834-188 CH2M HILL Metrotower II, Suite 2100, 4720 Kingsway Burnaby, BC V5H 4N2 Attention: Canisius Chan, P.Eng.

HORNE LAKE CONNECTOR STUDY GEOTECHNICAL INPUT - MOUNT MARK ROCKFALL ASSESSMENT

Dear Canisius: As requested, Thurber Engineering Ltd. (Thurber) has completed a site reconnaissance and desktop study for the Horne Lake Connector Study. This letter summarizes the results of the site reconnaissance and desktop study, and provides preliminary geotechnical recommendations to aid the feasibility study. It is a condition of this letter that Thurber’s performance of its professional services is subject to the attached Statement of Limitations and Conditions (SoLC). As noted in Item 4 of the SoLC, the report was prepared for the Client (CH2M Hill). Thurber also appoints the other members of the CH2M Hill design team and the Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure (MoTI) as approved users of the report as described in Item 4 of the SoLC. 1. INTRODUCTION We understand that MoTI requires an independent assessment of the feasibility and cost of constructing a new highway link from near Dunsmuir on the northeast side of Vancouver Island to Port Alberni. The intent of the new highway is to reduce travel times and provide an alternate route to access Port Alberni. The current existing Highway 4 route goes from near Coombs, past Cameron Lake to Port Alberni. Previous studies, completed in 1993, 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2012, contemplated new routes generally to the north of the existing alignment. Five alternate routes were considered during previous studies. The alignment assessed during our site reconnaissance is the Lacy Lake Option (Binnie 2012). This option would generally follow existing roads along the north shore of Horne Lake and through Horne Lake Provincial Park past Lacy Lake and join Highway 4 east of Port Alberni. Our scope of work in this phase of the project is to complete a desktop study and site reconnaissance, and prepare a brief report summarizing the geotechnical hazards related to rockfall near Mount Mark. This report provides preliminary recommendations to mitigate rockfall risks based on available existing geotechnical information.

900, 1281 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, BC V6E 3J7 T: 604 684 4384 F: 604 684 5124thurber.ca

Client: CH2M HILL Date: May 2, 2016 File No.: 17-834-188 E-File: a_bsp_ltr_Horne Lake Highway_geotech assessment Page 2 of 6

2. BACKGROUND INFORMATION Available information comprises limited surficial and bedrock geology maps and a geotechnical report. Information sources are summarized below.

1. Surficial Geology, Map 92F/7 Landforms Horne Lake, Department of Lands and Forests, British Columbia, 1956

2. Surficial Geology, Horne Lake, British Columbia, Geological Survey of Canada, Map 1111A.

3. Geology, Northern Vancouver Island Project, Geoscience BC, Map 2013-NVI-1-1 4. Horne Lake Community Association letter titled “The Horne Lake Community Opposes the

Proposed Connector Highway Linking the Alberni Valley and the Comox Valley Along Horne Lake Caves Road” signed by Murray Hamilton.

5. GeoPacific Consultants Ltd letter titled “Mount. Mark, Horne Lake Hazard Assessment”, dated November 26, 2001.

For discussion purposes, we refer to the document numbers listed above. 3. PROGRAM OF WORK Thurber conducted a brief preliminary site reconnaissance travelling along Highway 4 to Port Alberni and back along a portion of the Lacy Lake route. Thurber also completed a desktop study in preparation of this report. 4. FINDINGS 4.1 Bedrock and Surficial Geology Mount Mark and surrounding area is generally comprised of rocky bluffs with exposed bedrock. Document 3 shows the area subject to rockfall on Mount Mark comprising bedrock of the Vancouver Island Group and equivalents over Buttle Lake Group with a thin sill of early to middle Jurassic granodiorite over Sicker Group with quaternary cover near Horne Lake level. The proposed highway alignment is located within the alluvium. Details of the Geology are reproduced below. Vancouver Island Group: Basalt pillowed flows, pillow breccia, hyaloclastite tuff and breccia,

massive amygdaloidal flows, minor tuffs, interflow sediment and limestone lenses; grey to black, micritic and stylolitic limestone, calcareous siltstone, minor oolitic and bioclastic limestone, garnet- epidote-diopside skarn; thinly bedded black argillite, siltstone and shale, calcareous argillite, grey and black limestone, shaly limestone, coralline limestone, minor tuffaceous sandstone, grit and breccia.


Buttle Lake Group: Ribbon chert, cherty tuff, graphitic argillite, thinly bedded intercalated sandstone-siltstone-argillite, volcanic sandstone and conglomerate, massive crinoidal limestone, interbedded argillite and crinoidal limestone, pillowed basalt flows, olistostromal melange. May include significant volumes of Mount Hall Gabbro sills.

Early to Middle Jurassic: granodiorite Sicker Group: Pillowed and massive basalt flows, monolithic basalt breccia and pillow

breccia; pyroxene-feldspar phyric agglomerate, breccia, lapilli tuff, massive and pillowed flows, felsic tuffs and crystal tuffs, dacite, rhyolite; massive tuffite, laminated tuff, polymictic breccia; chert, jasper and magnetite-hematite-chert iron formation.

Quaternary cover: Alluvium, glaciofluvial gravels and sand, till. Document 2, which provides low resolution detail only, shows the area around Mount Mark as “areas of bedrock outcrop interspersed with patches of thin overburden”. Document 5 describes the geology as Karmutsen volcanic bedrock over Mount Mark Limestone. The Karmutsen formation forms part of the Vancouver Island group and the Mount Mark Limestone forms part of the Buttle Lake group. 4.2 Air Photo Interpretation We reviewed historical air photos dated between 1936 and 1998 borrowed from the Geographic Information Centre at UBC. In general the photos showed inferred evidence of rockfall events occurring as exhibited by lines of vegetation within the general forested area. Due to the scale of the photos it is difficult to determine timing and size of rock fall events. The 1978 photos show a large rock slide/fall originating near the summit of Mount Mark. This rockfall event reached the road and likely resulted in a requirement to clear debris from the road. 4.3 Site Reconnaissance The general area was visually assessed on May 29, 2015 by automobile in conjunction with personnel from CH2M Hill, Binnie and MoTI. Some brief reconnaissance was completed on foot at stops along the alignment as selected by Binnie. In general the ground conditions appear to comprise a thin layer of colluvium over bedrock. Photos 1 and 2 show the area near Mount Mark subject to rock fall. In addition Document 3 provides a photo taken from Horne Lake showing the Mount Mark slope.


Photo 1. Large boulder near Mount Mark

Photo 2. Bluffs on Mount Mark


A foot traverse of the western edge of the area subject to historic rockfall was completed by walking along the road alignment. Due to time constraints the central and eastern end of the Mount Mark area could only be observed via automobile. Boulders ranging in size from 1 to 8 m in diameter were noted near the road as part of the assessment. No evidence of recently deposited boulders was observed. Further, relative age of the existing boulders was difficult to assess based on the amount of investigation that could be completed. 5. ENGINEERING ASSESSMENT AND PRELIMINARY RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 General This section summarizes the results of our desktop study and site reconnaissance. For conceptual design purposes, we have assumed that the proposed new road will approximately follow the existing road. 5.2 Rock Fall Hazard and Mitigation Our site reconnaissance and air photo interpretation showed evidence of historic rock fall in the area. Some of the rockfall has impacted the road. Document 4 discusses the residents’ concerns that the road will be subject to rock fall hazards. Document 5 details two days of field work completed as part of the hazard assessment for the subdivision. Document 5 indicates that there is a moderate to high likelihood of a substantial rock fall or rock slide on slopes greater than 45 degrees. We agree with the assessment in Document 5 that there is a moderate to high likelihood or rockfall occurring that will impact the road. However, we believe that mitigation measures can be placed that will reduce the hazard to the road users. Detailed reconnaissance and analysis will need to be completed prior to detailed design of mitigation measures. MoTI does not have a policy or design standard for rock fall impacting roads. As such, it will be necessary for the design team and MoTI to establish site specific design criteria. Further, it is expected that mitigation works will also likely reduce the hazard to the residences located between the highway and lake. Rock fall mitigation measures at the site could comprise rock sheds, rockfall fences, scaling, catchment berms and ditches or a combination of these measures. We expect that mitigation can be most cost effectively achieved by a combination of catchment ditches and berms. Detailed LiDAR and road geometry was not provided thus only conceptual level design can be completed at this time. For conceptual purposes, a 6 m high berm with a 3 m wide crest located at the base of the slope near the road may be assumed. This should be confirmed during detailed design. Further, it should be noted that a berm would not be expected to be able to contain a large event.

STATEMENT OF LIMITATIONS AND CONDITIONS

1. STANDARD OF CARE

This Report has been prepared in accordance with generally accepted engineering or environmental consulting practices in the applicable jurisdiction. No other warranty, expressed or implied, is intended or made.

2. COMPLETE REPORT

All documents, records, data and files, whether electronic or otherwise, generated as part of this assignment are a part of the Report, which is of a summary nature and is not intended to stand alone without reference to the instructions given to Thurber by the Client, communications between Thurber and the Client, and any other reports, proposals or documents prepared by Thurber for the Client relative to the specific site described herein, all of which together constitute the Report.

IN ORDER TO PROPERLY UNDERSTAND THE SUGGESTIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND OPINIONS EXPRESSED HEREIN, REFERENCE MUST BE MADE TO THE WHOLE OF THE REPORT. THURBER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR USE BY ANY PARTY OF PORTIONS OF THE REPORT WITHOUT REFERENCE TO THE WHOLE REPORT.

3. BASIS OF REPORT

The Report has been prepared for the specific site, development, design objectives and purposes that were described to Thurber by the Client. The applicability and reliability of any of the findings, recommendations, suggestions, or opinions expressed in the Report, subject to the limitations provided herein, are only valid to the extent that the Report expressly addresses proposed development, design objectives and purposes, and then only to the extent that there has been no material alteration to or variation from any of the said descriptions provided to Thurber, unless Thurber is specifically requested by the Client to review and revise the Report in light of such alteration or variation.

4. USE OF THE REPORT

The information and opinions expressed in the Report, or any document forming part of the Report, are for the sole benefit of the Client. NO OTHER PARTY MAY USE OR RELY UPON THE REPORT OR ANY PORTION THEREOF WITHOUT THURBER’S WRITTEN CONSENT AND SUCH USE SHALL BE ON SUCH TERMS AND CONDITIONS AS THURBER MAY EXPRESSLY APPROVE. Ownership in and copyright for the contents of the Report belong to Thurber. Any use which a third party makes of the Report, is the sole responsibility of such third party. Thurber accepts no responsibility whatsoever for damages suffered by any third party resulting from use of the Report without Thurber’s express written permission.

5. INTERPRETATION OF THE REPORT

a) Nature and Exactness of Soil and Contaminant Description: Classification and identification of soils, rocks, geological units, contaminant materials and quantities have been based on investigations performed in accordance with the standards set out in Paragraph 1. Classification and identification of these factors are judgmental in nature. Comprehensive sampling and testing programs implemented with the appropriate equipment by experienced personnel may fail to locate some conditions. All investigations utilizing the standards of Paragraph 1 will involve an inherent risk that some conditions will not be detected and all documents or records summarizing such investigations will be based on assumptions of what exists between the actual points sampled. Actual conditions may vary significantly between the points investigated and the Client and all other persons making use of such documents or records with our express written consent should be aware of this risk and the Report is delivered subject to the express condition that such risk is accepted by the Client and such other persons. Some conditions are subject to change over time and those making use of the Report should be aware of this possibility and understand that the Report only presents the conditions at the sampled points at the time of sampling. If special concerns exist, or the Client has special considerations or requirements, the Client should disclose them so that additional or special investigations may be undertaken which would not otherwise be within the scope of investigations made for the purposes of the Report.

b) Reliance on Provided Information: The evaluation and conclusions contained in the Report have been prepared on the basis of conditions in evidence at the time of site inspections and on the basis of information provided to Thurber. Thurber has relied in good faith upon representations, information and instructions provided by the Client and others concerning the site. Accordingly, Thurber does not accept responsibility for any deficiency, misstatement or inaccuracy contained in the Report as a result of misstatements, omissions, misrepresentations, or fraudulent acts of the Client or other persons providing information relied on by Thurber. Thurber is entitled to rely on such representations, information and instructions and is not required to carry out investigations to determine the truth or accuracy of such representations, information and instructions.

c) Design Services: The Report may form part of design and construction documents for information purposes even though it may have been issued prior to final design being completed. Thurber should be retained to review final design, project plans and related documents prior to construction to confirm that they are consistent with the intent of the Report. Any differences that may exist between the Report’s recommendations and the final design detailed in the contract documents should be reported to Thurber immediately so that Thurber can address potential conflicts.

d) Construction Services: During construction Thurber should be retained to provide field reviews. Field reviews consist of performing sufficient and timely observations of encountered conditions in order to confirm and document that the site conditions do not materially differ from those interpreted conditions considered in the preparation of the report. Adequate field reviews are necessary for Thurber to provide letters of assurance, in accordance with the requirements of many regulatory authorities.

6. RELEASE OF POLLUTANTS OR HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES

Geotechnical engineering and environmental consulting projects often have the potential to encounter pollutants or hazardous substances and the potential to cause the escape, release or dispersal of those substances. Thurber shall have no liability to the Client under any circumstances, for the escape, release or dispersal of pollutants or hazardous substances, unless such pollutants or hazardous substances have been specifically and accurately identified to Thurber by the Client prior to the commencement of Thurber’s professional services.

7. INDEPENDENT JUDGEMENTS OF CLIENT

The information, interpretations and conclusions in the Report are based on Thurber’s interpretation of conditions revealed through limited investigation conducted within a defined scope of services. Thurber does not accept responsibility for independent conclusions, interpretations, interpolations and/or decisions of the Client, or others who may come into possession of the Report, or any part thereof, which may be based on information contained in the Report. This restriction of liability includes but is not limited to decisions made to develop, purchase or sell land.

HKH/LG_Dec 2014

Appendix B Desktop Environmental Assessment –

Horne Lake Highway 19 Connector

CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED • COMPANY PROPRIETARY

CH2M HILL Canada LimitedMetrotower II – Suite 2100 4720 Kingsway Burnaby, BC V5H 4N2 Canada O 604 684 3282 F 604 684 3292 www.ch2m.com

Dave Edgar, P.Eng. Transportation and Planning Engineer Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure Vancouver Island District 3rd Floor – 2100 Labieux Road Nanaimo, BC V9T 6E9

December 4, 2015

Subject: Desktop Environmental Assessment ‐ Horne Lake Highway 19 Connector

Dear Mr. Edgar,

CH2M HILL Canada Limited (CH2M), is pleased to provide the British Columbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure (BC MoTI) with this summary of results from the desktop environmental assessment (EA) conducted in support of the proposed Horne Lake Highway 19 Connector Project (the Project) to link the City of Port Alberni to the Inland Island Highway (Highway 19) via the Lacy Lake Option. The Lacy Lake Option, shown in Figure 1, has been reviewed against available environmental information to inform a high level assessment of the impacts of the Project.

Summary of Environmental Features and Recommended Mitigation Measures Table 1 provides a summary of environmental concerns encountered by the proposed Lacy Lake Option identified by a desktop assessment of available environmental information. Potential effects and recommended mitigation measures are also provided. The topics of most concern include:

Karst topography – protected landscape and difficult to build on due to the possibility of sink holes.

Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR) – permitting through ALR land would require additional time and cost.

Horne Lake Caves Provincial Park and Horne Lake Regional Park – the parks are under the jurisdiction of BC Parks (on provincial Crown land) and the Regional District of Nanaimo (on municipal‐owned land), respectively; additional studies and permits would be required for each park in consultation with BC Parks and Regional District of Nanaimo.

Special Management Area under the Vancouver Island Land Use Plan (BC Ministry of Forests 2002) – these areas are set aside to protect high value resources and meet certain management objectives. Constructing through these areas would require discussions with the BC Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations (MFLNRO) and municipalities. In addition, local bylaws apply within with these areas.

Dave Edgar, P.Eng. Page 2 December 4, 2015


Figure 1. Historic Route Options Connecting Highway 19 to Port Alberni

The approximate location of the Lacy Lake Option was referenced against various environmental metrics in the iMap BC database (Government of BC 2015). Point or polygon features crossed or in proximity to the proposed route are presented in Table 1.



Table 1. Environmental Concerns and Recommended Mitigation Measures

Environmental Metric

Crossed By Proposed Route? Additional Details Potential Effect Recommended Mitigation

Agriculture Land Reserve (ALR) (Polygon ID 760005 and 760035)

Yes Located to the east of Illusion Lake and possibly entering Port Alberni from Lacey Lake

Removal of land from ALR. Adhere to the Environmental Management Act (EMA) to reduce the potential impacts of the Project on agricultural lands. Comply with the Agricultural Land Commission requirements regarding soil handling and reclamation during construction in the ALR.

Horne Lake Caves Provincial Park and Horne Lake Regional Park

Yes Located west of Horne Lake. The parks are under the jurisdiction of BC Parks (on provincial Crown land) and the Regional District of Nanaimo (on municipal‐owned land), respectively; additional studies and permits would be required for each park in consultation with BC Parks and Regional District of Nanaimo

Disturbance to vegetation and recreational use the parks

To the extent practical, use existing disturbed areas for construction activities in the parks.

Seek to reduce clearing of conifer trees. If conifers must be removed, construct wildlife trees by limbing the trees and cutting the stumps as high as practical.

Seek to limit equipment and traffic in the parks, to the extent practical.

Invasive Plants Yes Point data indicates multiple occurrences of invasive plants, particularly along existing roads. Invasive plant populations have been record along the length of the route.

Introduction or spread of invasive plants.

Implement BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure’s best management practices for invasive plants (Province of BC and Invasive Species Council of BC 2013).

Penstock Water License – Point of Diversion

Yes Located near the south‐eastern end of Horne Lake

Reduction of well water quality and quantity.

In the event that construction activities result in a reduction of well water quality and quantity, provide well replacement or the replacement of equal or better quality and quantity of water.

Water License – Works (Spawning Channel on Qualicum River)

Yes Located near the south‐eastern end of Horne Lake

Loss or alteration to riparian and aquatic habitat or habitat features.

Consider an aerial crossing (e.g., bridge) to avoid instream work.

Work outside the window of least risk to receive approval from the appropriate regulatory authorities.

Monitor watercourse approaches to identify areas were movement of mineral soil or debris might be eroding and depositing within the watercourse. Implement remedial measures (e.g., install sediment fence or equivalent structure) should monitoring






identify areas where sediment or debris is being deposited along wetland edges.

Water License – Works (Dam on west side of Lacy Lake)

Yes N/A Temporary disturbance to dam structure.

Avoid disturbance to structure.

Karst – Mount Mark Formation

Yes Mount Mark Formation is located around Horne Lake. This formation has been rated Primary Likelihood meaning > 50% of the limestone bed rock is estimated to be soluble. Pure to very pure limestone. Known caves in the area.

Alteration of karst formation.

Implement the mitigation measures in the Karst Management Handbook for BC for areas where Karst features are identified (BC Ministry of Forests 2003).

Aquifer 0662 (Sand and Gravel; moderate productivity)

Yes Located between Little and Big Qualicum River (East of Horne Lake)

Reduction in groundwater quality or quantity.

Implement the following mitigation measures to minimize effects of the alteration of groundwater flow and quality:

identify the location of registered and unregistered water wells within 200 m downslope and 100 m upslope of clearing, construction and restoration activities;

monitor pH, turbidity, total dissolved solids, total suspended solids and true colour before, during and after construction;

monitor nitrate levels in water wells within 200 m of blasting sites before and after the blasting occurs;

implement and adhere to a Surface Water Quality and Sediment Control Plan; and

provide potable water to residents if water supply is degraded.






Rare Species Observations (Fauna)

Yes The winter wren (blue listed) and olive‐sided flycatcher (blue listed) have been observed near the road way on the north side of Horne Lake

Disturbance to listed wildlife species.

The width of the right‐of‐way will be narrowed to avoid site‐specific features such as rare or unique plant communities, where practicable. The specific features will be fenced or otherwise protected throughout the duration of construction.

Bird nest surveys may be required for clearing during the migratory bird nesting window from late April through mid‐August and amphibian salvage may be required depending on field survey results and final Project design.

Special Management Area (Legal) – Vancouver Island Land Use Plan (LUP)

Yes Upper Qualicum Resource Management Zone (RMZ) 20 is crossed northwest of Horne Lake. The 3 primary values of this zone are 1) ecosection biodiversity representation 2) Recreational opportunities associated with the river 3) Wildlife and fish habitats and populations.

Overall Management Guidance: This small zone should be managed with focus on retention/ replacement of old seral forest attributes, as well as demonstration of alternative silvicultural practices throughout.

Temporary disturbance to terrestrial and aquatic resources in the RMZ.

Adhere to the EMA to reduce the potential terrestrial and aquatic impacts of the Project in sensitive areas.

Implement a Post‐Construction Monitoring Plan to evaluate the effectiveness of project mitigation measures and restoration work. Where required, additional mitigation measures will be implemented.

Agriculture Area – Vancouver Island Land Use Plan (LUP)

Yes Similar boundaries to ALR Loss or alteration of agricultural lands.

Adhere to the EMA to reduce the potential impacts of the Project on agricultural lands. Comply with the Agricultural Land Commission requirements regarding soil handling and reclamation during construction in the ALR.

General Management Area ‐ Vancouver Island Land Use Plan (LUP)

Yes E&N South RMZ 34 is crossed near the intersection of the proposed highway alignment and Highway 4.

Temporary disturbance to terrestrial and aquatic resources in the RMZ.


Implement a Post‐Construction Monitoring Plan to evaluate the effectiveness of project mitigation






Significant timber values and particular suitability for enhanced silviculture and growth and yield management on larger blocks of Crown provincial forest land. Due to its proximity to population centres, the area offers significant recreation/scenery and tourism opportunities associated with intensively managed, roaded resource lands. Fish and wildlife values are significant, and biodiversity conservation/restoration is recommended with an emphasis on retention, and where required, active restoration of mature and old seral forest attributes and age classes.

measures and restoration work. Where required, additional mitigation measures will be implemented.

Water Wells (Domestic)

Possibly – more detailed mapping is required

Domestic water wells are located in the general region of alignment north and northwest of Illusion Lake, where the alignment is close to Horne Lake Road.

Reduction in water well quality or quantity.

Re‐establish or replace a potable water supply a registered or known water well be damaged (i.e., diminishment in quantity or quality) during highway clearing and construction.

Ungulate Winter Ranges (UWRs)


u‐1‐017 (M‐ODHE) Black‐tailed Deer and Roosevelt Elk– No Harvest Zone

The goal of the UWR is to maintain or enhance the existing combination of topographic and vegetative features.

Changes to wildlife habitat, movement or mortality.

Complete construction activities within the UWR as soon as practical to reduce the length of time in the UWR.

Seek to reduce construction traffic within the UWR to the extent practical. Use multi‐passenger vehicles to transport workers. Post speed limits on the right‐of‐way and construction access.

Seek to reduce the width of the Project Footprint to the extent practical by utilizing shared workspace, avoiding clearing large diameter trees on the edge of the right‐of‐way; and reducing extra temporary workspace (e.g., place log decks, storage areas, and other temporary construction areas outside of UWRs).

Within the rotation winter range for black‐tailed deer that is crossed by the Project Footprint, reduce






clearing to the extent practical to retain functional winter range (i.e., well‐developed crowns that intercept snow, small openings, multiple canopies with Douglas fir or cedar‐hemlock understories for food, thermal and security cover, old forests with arboreal lichen). To the extent practical, locate extra temporary workspace (e.g., place log decks, storage areas, and other temporary construction areas) outside of the UWR.

Implement measures to reduce access (human and predator) along the Project Footprint following construction (e.g., during final cleanup) where requested and agreed to with landowners and tenure holders. Measures may include using woody debris as rollback, mounding, placing boulders across the right‐of‐way, installing gates and signs, and planting trees or shrubs at select locations adjacent to the highway right‐of‐way.

The locations of site‐specific measures will be determined based on site‐specific conditions and consultation with the appropriate regulatory authority, landowners, and tenure holders as directed by the Environmental Inspector.

Old Growth Management Area (OGMA) – Non Legal


Feature ID 41252 west of Horne Lake near the Qualicum River. Approximate crossing distance is 900 m.

Loss or alteration of OGMAs.

Minimize removal of old trees as much as practicable, narrow up the right‐of‐way as much as feasible, and adhere to the EMA. Work with Integrated Land Management Bureau to identify appropriate mitigation and compensation measures for altering OGMAs.

Water License – Works


Water conduit located at the northern end of Horne Lake

To be determined To be determined






Water License – Works, Land Parcel and Buildings


Pending review of more detailed mapping, located at the intersection of the proposed highway and Highway 4. Multiple Land Parcels and buildings with Water Licenses located to the east of the intersection along Highway 4.

Reduction of water well quality or quantity.

Re‐establish or replace a potable water supply a registered or known water well be damaged (i.e., diminishment in quantity or quality) during highway clearing and construction.

Initiate pre‐construction monitoring, where warranted, prior to the commencement of construction or, if appropriate, prior to the commencement of a specific activity (e.g., blasting). Monitoring may be necessary immediately prior to, during and immediately following construction or a specific construction activity in the vicinity of water wells, springs or sensitive watercourse and non‐classified drainage (NCD) crossings.

Sensitive Ecosystem Mapping Inventory Mapping – Grassland and Wetlands


The alignment likely does not cross any polygons between Horne Lake and the Inland Island Highway but maybe in close proximity to these features. Field assessments and a final alignment will be need to determine set back distances and potential effects.

Temporary disturbance to sensitive ecosystem.

Move extra temporary workspace outside of sensitive ecosystems.

Adhere to the EMA to reduce the potential impacts of the Project on the wetland.

Source: Government of BC 2015.



The following environmental metrics were not identified in proximity to the proposed route (Government of BC 2015):

Sensitive Fisheries Watersheds – Approved and Proposed Federal Parks Conservation Areas Range Developments Research and Experimental Lands Permeant sample sites Protected Lands Water Reservoirs (artificial) Groundwater Capture Zone Community Watersheds Wildlife Management Units Snow Survey Locations Oil and Gas Tenures Forest Tenure Managed License Forest Cover Reserves Enhanced Forestry Area – Vancouver Island Land Use Plan

The need to consult with adjacent First Nations warrants further discussion.

Discussion and Next Steps Project effects on aquatic systems in the watershed will depend on crossing locations and the extent of disturbance to riparian areas. Project effects may include loss or alterations to riparian and aquatic habitat or habitat features. As discussed in Table 1, avoidance of instream work is recommended. Field surveys will identify crossing locations and riparian buffers, and provide information to support Project planning, permitting and reduce the effect on aquatic systems. It is recommended that riparian and stream surveys be completed where Project activities are expected occur in or adjacent to a watercourse to support regulatory requirements and compliance with provincial best management practices.

Project effects on native vegetation are expected to occur due to tree and shrub removal during construction activities. Although no rare plant species were identified during the desktop review, rare plant surveys are recommended to support the desktop analysis. The extent of disturbance to native vegetation and plant species at risk will be confirmed during the field surveys. Vegetation management and mitigation recommendations will be confirmed following field surveys. It is recommended that plant surveys be completed to support compliance with the federal Species at Risk Act. Plant surveys should be based on the BC Conservation Data Centre and BC E‐Flora Protocols for Rare Plant Surveys (Penny and Klinkenberg 2012). It is recommended that protocols include: a survey of the Project footprint and adjacent areas; identification of dominant plant communities; identified species; and a search for rare plants. Surveys are to be conducted during appropriate timing for identifying plants in the region, and for observing most of the species being surveyed.

The spread of invasive plants is a common concern during construction activities. As mentioned in Table 1, BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure’s best management practices for invasive plants will be implemented if they are identified in the Project area during field surveys. Non‐native invasive plants will be recorded during plant and wildlife surveys and will include plants designated Provincial Noxious, Regional priority invasive plants, and nuisance weeds.



Wildlife species at risk are expected to occur in the Project area and may be present in the Project footprint. Project activities may affect species at risk in the local Project area through direct and indirect disturbance such as direct mortality due to construction activities, habitat loss or alteration, and sensory disturbance. As discussed in Table 1, bird nest surveys may be required for clearing during the migratory bird nesting window from late April through mid‐August and amphibian salvage may be required depending on field survey results and final Project design.

As mentioned above, the largest environmental concerns identified are related to karst topography, ALR land, Horn Lake Cave Provincial Park and the Special Management Area under the Vancouver Island Land Use Plan. Discussion with the Agricultural Land Commission, BC MFLNRO and applicable municipalities will be required to address these issues and move forward with required permitting.

More detailed mapping is recommended to more accurately identify potential water wells, UWRs, OGMAs, water licenses and ALR land encountered by the proposed route.

Closing The information collected during the desktop review supports Project planning, the development of mitigation measures, and compliance with permitting and regulatory requirements.

If you have any questions or concerns regarding this information, do not hesitate to contact me at 250.940.1267 or [email protected].

Regards, CH2M HILL Canada Limited Kaeley Wiseman, MCP, RPP, MCIP Project Manager


References British Columbia Ministry of Environment. 2012. Develop with Care: Environmental Guidelines for Urban and Rural Land Development in British Columbia. Website: www.env.gov.bc.ca/wld/BMP/bmpintro.html. Accessed: October 2015.

British Columbia Ministry of Forests. 2002. Vancouver Island Summary Land Use Plan. Website: https://www.for.gov.bc.ca/tasb/slrp/plan90.html. Accessed: October 2015.

British Columbia Ministry of Forests. 2003. Karst Management Handbook for British Columbia. Victoria, British Columbia.

Government of British Columbia. 2015. iMapBC. DataBC. Website: Wttp://www.data.gov.bc.ca/dbc/geographic/view_and_analyze/imapbc/index.page. Accessed: October 2015.

Penny, J. and R. Klinkenberg. 2012. Protocols for Rare Plant Surveys (Red‐ and Blue‐listed Species) in E‐Flora BC: Electronic Atlas of the Plants of British Columbia. Lab for Advanced Spatial Analysis, Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC. Website: www.geog.ubc.ca/biodiversity/eflora/ProtocolsforRarePlantSurveys.html. Accessed: October 2015.

Province of British Columbia and Invasive Species Council of British Columbia. 2013. Best Practices for Managing Invasive Plants on Roadsides. Website: http://www.th.gov.bc.ca/invasiveplant/documents/Invasive_Plants_Pocket_Guide.pdf. Accessed: October 2015.

Appendix C Current Signage along Highway 4

APPENDIX A – CURRENT SIGNAGE ALONG HIGHWAY 4

493483_TR1014151032VBC A‐1 REPORT PREPARED FOR BC MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE BY CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED, 2015

Figure A‐1. Highway 4 LKI Segment 2356 – KM 0.0 to KM 2.6




Not to scale

Appendix D Summary of Highway 4 Closures

D-1

Summary of Highway 4 Unplanned Closures (2008 to 2015)

Type of Closure Lanes Affected Head Location Tail Location Date Duration (hrs)

Debris on Road Both directions Jct. with Highway

4A Jct. with Highway

4A March 12, 2008 1.2 Collision Both directions Port Alberni Port Alberni June 6, 2008 7.9

Collision Both directions Jct. with Highway


4A December 12,

2008 4.0

Collision EB Port Alberni Port Alberni December 12,

2008 0.7

Collision Both directions Cathedral Grove Cathedral Grove December 17,

2008 0.4

Tree on Road Both directions Cathedral Grove Port Alberni December 29,

2008 5.2

Vehicle Incident Both directions Port Alberni Port Alberni September 30,

2009 0.6



4A October 16, 2009 5.6 Vehicle Recovery Both directions Cathedral Grove Cathedral Grove October 25, 2009 1.4

Hydro Lines Down Both directions Port Alberni Port Alberni November 16,

2009 1.6



4A December 5, 2009 0.7

Vehicle Incident Both directions Jct. with Highway


4A December 24,

2009 3.4 Vehicle Incident Both directions Cathedral Grove Cathedral Grove March 19, 2010 2.9

Vehicle Incident Both directions Cathedral Grove Cathedral Grove December 17,

2010 0.6 Vehicle Incident Both directions Cathedral Grove Cathedral Grove February 10, 2011 3.2 Vehicle Incident Both directions Port Alberni Port Alberni February 17, 2011 1.4

Collision Both directions Port Alberni Port Alberni July 22, 2011 2.5



4A August 22, 2011 4.0

Forest Fire Both directions Jct. with Highway


4A September 2,

2011 4.6



4A September 3,

2011 3.7 Vehicle Recovery Both directions Cathedral Grove Cathedral Grove October 8, 2011 2.0



4A August 25, 2012 1.2


4A Cathedral Grove August 31, 2012 1.4

Vehicle Incident Both directions Port Alberni Port Alberni September 13,

2012 2.1



4A November 17,

2012 3.2 Vehicle Incident Both directions Cathedral Grove Port Alberni January 8, 2013 0.6

Vehicle Incident Both directions Port Alberni

Summit Port Alberni

Summit January 25, 2013 4.3 Vehicle Incident Both directions Port Alberni Port Alberni April 30, 2013 0.3

Vehicle Incident EB Jct. with Highway


4A May 2, 2013 0.3

Vehicle Incident Both directions Port Alberni

Summit Port Alberni May 21, 2013 2.8 Vehicle Incident Both directions Port Alberni Port Alberni June 17, 2013 0.5 Vehicle Incident WB Port Alberni Port Alberni June 17, 2013 0.1 Vehicle Incident WB Port Alberni Port Alberni June 17, 2013 4.2

D-2

Summary of Highway 4 Unplanned Closures (2008 to 2015)

Type of Closure Lanes Affected Head Location Tail Location Date Duration (hrs)

Vehicle Incident EB Jct. with Highway


4A July 20, 2013 3.2 Vehicle Incident Both directions Port Alberni Port Alberni August 8, 2013 0.6

Vehicle Recovery Both directions Jct. with Highway

4A Port Alberni March 16, 2014 0.7

Vehicle Recovery Both directions Jct. with Highway


4A March 16, 2014 4.1 Vehicle Incident Both directions Port Alberni Port Alberni April 8, 2014 3.2

Hydro Lines Down Both directions Jct. with Highway


4A May 7, 2014 1.5



4A June 22, 2014 0.4

Vehicle Incident WB Jct. with Highway


4A June 22, 2014 0.1



4A June 22, 2014 1.6 Vehicle Incident Both directions Cathedral Grove Cathedral Grove June 29, 2014 4.0 Vehicle Incident Both directions Cathedral Grove Cathedral Grove July 11, 2014 1.0 Vehicle Incident Both directions Cathedral Grove Cathedral Grove August 17, 2014 0.5 Vehicle Recovery Both directions Cathedral Grove Cathedral Grove August 19, 2014 8.5 Vehicle Incident EB Port Alberni Port Alberni December 5, 2014 0.3

Heavy Traffic Volume Both directions

Port Alberni Summit

Port Alberni Summit March 26, 2015 3.7

Vehicle Incident Both directions Port Alberni Port Alberni April 27, 2015 0.9 Material Spill EB Port Alberni Port Alberni June 2, 2015 1.2



4A July 9, 2015 3.8



4A July 10, 2015 5.4 Vehicle Incident Both directions Port Alberni Port Alberni August 26, 2015 2.4


4A Cathedral Grove August 28, 2015 0.3



4A September 12,

2015 0.2 Vehicle Incident Both directions Port Alberni Port Alberni October 9, 2015 5.0


4A Cathedral Grove October 14, 2015 2.4

Notes: EB – eastbound; WB - westbound It is assumed that EB and WB closures allow for single lane alternating traffic.

Appendix E Horne Lake Connector

Demand Modelling Procedures and Assumptions

T E C H N I C A L M E M O R A N D U M

493483 CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED • COMPANY PROPRIETARY 1

Horne Lake Connector Demand Modelling Procedures and Assumptions PREPARED FOR: Dave Edgar/BC MoTI COPY TO: Janelle Erwin, Jonathan Tillie/BC MoTI PREPARED BY: Ali Darwiche; Bob Bigelow/CH2M

REVIEWED BY: Basse Clement; Peta Wolmarans/CH2M

DATE: July 17, 2015 PROJECT NUMBER: 493483

Introduction The purpose of this Technical Memorandum is to provide an overview of the travel demand and route choice estimates prepared for the Horne Lake Connector (HLC) project. It includes a discussion of the network demand model1 that was developed for the purposes of this project, including the inputs and assumptions. It also provides details of the diversion model that was developed to help determine how many trips would use the new HLC compared to the existing Highway 4 route.

Demand Model A simple, network model was developed to simulate traffic in the study area as shown in Figure 1. The new Lacy Lake route connecting Highway 4 and Highway 19 was coded based on the recommended alignment developed by R.F. Binnie & Associates Ltd. in 2013.

Figure 1. Network Model with Existing and Proposed Routes

1 A simple EMME model of the study area was developed in order to reflect congestion effects on the highway network, and enable variations in travel speeds due to highway grade (which affect travel times) to be factored in. The EMME model also allows the analysis to account for sensitivities in terms of capacity and general origin‐destination patterns.

Proposed Lacy Lake Route

Existing Highway 4 Route

Traffic Analysis Zones

HORNE LAKE CONNECTOR DEMAND MODELLING PROCEDURES AND ASSUMPTIONS


In total, nine traffic analysis zones (TAZ), shown in Table 1, were coded to represent the main origins and destinations in the study area.

Table 1. Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) Used in Demand Model

Zone Description

1000 & 2000 Port Alberni, Tofino, West of Vancouver Island

3000 Cameron Lake

4000 Coombs

5000 Qualicum Beach

6000 Nanaimo

7000 Cumberland

8000 Dunsmuir

9000 Horne Lake

Based on a design speed of 80 kph for the HLC, volume delay functions (VDF) were coded to the highway network. The figure below illustrates congestion effects and travel speed variances which are explicitly accounted for in the model through the VDFs. The capacity on the new route was assumed to be 1,200 vehicles per hour per lane (vphpl). The capacity on Highway 4 was also assumed to be 1,200 vphpl except for the Loon Lake section where the capacity was assumed to be 1,000 vphpl due to significant gradients. Capacity was also reduced to 1,000 vphpl through the Cathedral Grove segment owing to a narrow highway right‐of‐way and significant tourist activity. The capacity for Highway 19 was assumed to be 1,600 vphpl given that it is a straighter and highway with gentle gradients. Figure 2 shows the modelled travel speeds on the network. Locations with significant grade changes, such as at Loon Lake, have lower average travel speeds compared to other sections as expected.

Figure 2. Modelled Travel Speeds



Base Year Trip Tables Vehicle travel between the nine zones was estimated using a combination of BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure (BC MoTI) counts and intersection counts that were conducted for previous studies. Figure 3 shows the location of the traffic counts used to develop a base year origin‐destination table. A description for each of the locations is provided below the figure.

Figure 3. Traffic Count Locations used to Develop Origin‐Destination Table

The matrix of origin‐destination estimates is provided in Table 2. Since most of the traffic data were collected during September, the origin‐destination table represents average daily weekday traffic in the fall of 2012. A factor of 10% was used to derive peak hour traffic trip tables based on average hourly profiles. Figure 4 shows base year average daily traffic in 2012 as it is assigned on the existing network.

Table 2. Origin‐Destination Table – Fall 2012 Average Daily Weekday Traffic

Type ID Source Description/Location

Short Count 1 BC MOT Traffic Count Wesbite CL: 12‐042 , Old Port Alberni Hwy WestShort Count 2 BC MOT Traffic Count Wesbite CL: 12‐048, Old Port Alberni Hwy EastShort Count 3 BC MOT Traffic Count Wesbite CL: 14‐020, Route 4 Coombs W of Hilliers RoadShort Count 4 BC MOT Traffic Count Wesbite CL: 14‐063, Route 4A Coombs W of Church RoadShort Count 5 BC MOT Traffic Count Wesbite CL: 14‐051, Route 19 N of Route 4AShort Count 6 BC MOT Traffic Count Wesbite CL: 14‐062, Route 4 West of Route 19

Intersection Count 1 Provided by BC MOT Route 4 @ Route 4AIntersection Count 2 ND LEA Consulting Ltd. Report Route 19 @ Route 4Intersection Count 3 Provided by BC MOT Route 19 @ Horne Lake

From/To 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 Total

1000 0 0 0 1,193 916 897 250 0 0 3,2562000 0 0 0 511 393 384 107 0 0 1,3953000 0 0 0 53 40 40 11 0 0 1444000 1,193 511 53 0 704 689 192 0 0 3,3425000 1,036 444 46 632 0 3,107 545 104 48 5,9626000 965 414 43 589 3,107 0 2,346 447 207 8,1187000 300 129 13 183 575 2,362 0 70 151 3,7838000 0 0 0 0 90 370 70 0 119 6499000 0 0 0 0 65 267 151 168 0 651Total 3,494 1,498 155 3,161 5,890 8,116 3,672 789 525 27,300



Figure 4. 2012 Average Daily Traffic – Existing Network

Base Year Peak Hour Travel Time on Hwy 4 One of the key inputs to the logit formulation to estimate route choice is the relative travel time between the existing and proposed highways. AM Peak hour traffic on Highway 4 was estimated to be approximately 465 vehicles per hour (vph) in the eastbound direction (towards Highway 4A/Highway 19) and 500 vph in the westbound direction (towards Port Alberni). It is estimated that the travel time along Highway 4 between Port Alberni (TAZ 1000/2000) and the junction of Highway 4 and Highway 19 is approximately 30 minutes in both directions. (This compares with 26 minutes on Google Maps, although Google assumes a posted speed of 70 kph through Cathedral Grove.)

This is comparable to the findings discussed in the Horne Lake Connector Highway 19 to Highway 4 Business Case (Apex Engineering Limited, October 2014), which stated that the travel time along Highway 4 from Highway 19 to Port Alberni was 29.5 minutes.

Future Traffic on the Network Future growth in travel demand in the study area was estimated using a simple econometric model. In order to develop the model, CH2M used data from BC MoTI’s permanent counter, P14‐1NS, which is located on Highway 19 approximately 2.1 km south of Highway 19A. The location of this count site is shown in Figure 5.



Figure 5. BC MoTI Count Site – P14‐1NS

This location was considered appropriate due to its proximity to the study area and the fact that it provides the only continuous traffic count within the study area which is essential for econometric modelling. Furthermore, this counter provides enough historic count data (monthly data from 2005 through 2014) to enable estimates based on a statistically sufficient sample size.

The relationship between traffic and several variables, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for BC, population and fuel price, were explored during the model development process. Ultimately, the population of Alberni Health Administrative Area was used as a predictor of future traffic in the study area since, logically, it showed the highest correlation with historic traffic trends at the permanent counter. Population data were sourced from BC Stats, based on the Health Administrative boundaries shown in Figure 6. Figure 7 shows historic population trends since 1986. (Note that there was a significant downturn in the forestry sector in the 1990s that resulted in layoffs and a downturn in the local economy.).



Figure 6. Alberni Health Administrative Area Boundary

Figure 7. Historic Population Trends for Alberni Administrative Area

Max. 32,840

Min. 30,471

29,00029,50030,00030,50031,00031,50032,00032,50033,00033,500

Year



Figure 8 compares the indexed trend in population and annual average daily traffic (AADT) over the last ten years. Overall, traffic growth coincides with periods of relative population growth. However, some notable drop in traffic occurred during the economic downturn followed by a period of relative recovery.

Figure 8. Population and AADT Index

Historic and future population figures for Alberni were sourced from StatsCan. The model was developed at the quarterly level, thus providing 40 sample observations (10 years x 4 quarters/year) for estimation which is sufficient for estimating future traffic trends.

Table 3 summarizes the final model estimates. In addition to population, calibration “dummy” variables were introduced to control for seasonal variations in travel and non‐typical occurrences (such as the economic downturn and other anomalies) that can potentially affect traffic patterns.

Table 3. Final Econometric Model

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept ‐181.5 10758.6 0.0

Q1 ‐1203.8 212.9 ‐5.7

Q2 2801.5 212.7 13.2

Q3 6563.6 217.9 30.1

Rcn ‐1171.2 244.4 ‐4.8

Population 0.8 0.3 2.5

R‐squared = 0.977

All of the variables are significant at the 95% confidence interval level as indicated by their corresponding t‐stats, with the exception of the Intercept2, which exists in the model to account for variables that are not included in the model and that potentially affect travel.

2 The Intercept has no value from a forecasting perspective. As such, its statistical significance is of no importance.

96

98

100

102

104

106

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Population and AADT Index

AADT(Index) Alberni Pop. (Index)



The model was found to replicate historic observed traffic very well as indicated by Figure 9 and the high R‐squared statistic (0.97). Typically, econometric models of traffic demand with R‐squared of 0.9 or higher indicate a high degree of confidence in the model’s forecasting capability.

Figure 9. Modelled vs. Observed Quarterly ADT

Figure 10 shows estimated future growth in demand between 2014 and 2041. The compounded annual growth during that period is 0.27%. Overall, traffic on Highway 19 is expected to grow by 10%, which is a relatively low figure compared to other highway facilities in the province. This is largely attributed to the modest population growth forecasts for the Alberni region.

Figure 10. Traffic Growth on Highway 19 – 2014 to 2041

Future Travel Origin‐Destination Base year origin‐destination vehicle trip tables (refer to the earlier section on Base Year Trip Tables) were multiplied by growth factors derived from the econometric model.



Diversion Model The HLC will provide a reliable connection for people travelling to and from Port Alberni. This will specifically benefit vehicles travelling between the west of the island (Port Alberni, Tofino, etc.) and the north (Cumberland, Dunsmuir, etc.) for which average travel times are expected to decrease by more than 15 minutes, as summarized in Table 4. While the shorter distance route between Port Alberni and the highway leading to Nanaimo will still be the existing Highway 4 route (by over 6.5 km), the proposed HLC route will provide a viable and potentially more reliable alternative. As shown in Table 4 and Figure 11, the estimated travel time between Port Alberni and the Highway 4/Highway 19 junction is approximately 30.0 minutes on the existing route and 31.3 minutes on the new HLC route.

Table 4. Travel Distance and Time Comparison between Existing Highway 4 Route and HLC Route

Highway Segment Existing

Highway 4 Route

Proposed HLC Route Difference: Existing ‐ Proposed

Travel Distance (km)

Port Alberni to HLC/Highway 19 48.4 26.3 22.1

Port Alberni to Highway 4/Highway 19 34.0 40.7 ‐6.7

Port Alberni to Highway 4/Highway 4A 31.3 43.4 ‐12.1

Travel Time (minutes)

Port Alberni to HLC/Highway 19 38.5 22.8 15.7

Port Alberni to Highway 4/Highway 19 30.0 31.3 ‐1.3

Port Alberni to Highway 4/Highway 4A 27.9 33.5 ‐5.6



Figure 11. Travel Distance and Time Comparison between Existing Highway 4 Route and HLC Route

To estimate the diversion onto the alternative route, a binary logit model was developed. This is an approach typically used to estimate traffic diversion when a new route alternative is being contemplated for a highway network. The model takes the following form which weighs the generalized cost of one route alternative over another:

P(new_route) = e(BxGC_newroute+Bias)/(e(BxGC_newroute+Bias)+e(BxGC_oldroute)) Where:

P represents the probability of taking the new route expressed as a percentage;

e is the exponential value (~2.72);

GC represents the generalized cost‐minutes for each of the available routes;

B is an estimated coefficient which determines the sensitivity to differences in generalized cost between the available options and is based on relevant industry knowledge; and

Bias is a term that adjusts for perceived preferences towards one route over the other which could include factors such as road comfort, scenery, individual preference or perceived reliability to name a few.

The generalized cost‐minutes is calculated as the sum of travel time on the road and the monetary cost of travel. The monetary cost of travel is calculated by multiplying the trip distance by the average vehicle operating cost per km (VOC). The VOC was assumed to be $0.18/km and was derived using BCAA sources. In order to convert the generalized cost to minutes, a value of time of $13/hr was used (based on guidance set out in “Default Values for Benefit Cost Analysis In British Columbia, 2012” prepared for BC Ministry of Transportation Planning and Programming Branch).



No data was available for estimation of the B and Bias terms. Also, limited research is readily available online on route diversion coefficient estimation. While the Bureau of Public Roads does publish some guidelines on typical route diversion curves, most of these apply to the diversion between freeways and arterials in relatively urban settings in the United States. As such, the coefficient and bias term were derived from past experience in conducting route choice modelling. A future origin‐destination and stated‐preference survey of the local travel market would be useful to confirm the model coefficient and bias term ultimately providing a more reliable estimate.

Figure 12 shows the proposed shape of the probability curve. The x‐axis is the difference in generalized cost‐minutes of the existing route minus the new route. The green line on the graph shows the probability of diversion with no savings assumed. If the bias term was 0, the probability would have been 50% diversion to the new route assuming all factors being equal. The bias term ensures a preference towards choosing the old route as a result of a driver’s familiarity with it.

Figure 12. Probability of Using the New HLC Route

Given the significant savings in generalized‐cost minutes (more than 30 minutes) for trips between Alberni and northerly traffic zones (i.e., zone 1000 & 2000 to 7000, 8000 & 9000 and vice versa), it is expected that almost all the trips would divert to the new route, regardless of the B coefficient and Bias estimates. Furthermore, the new route will probably be more reliable as it will be designed for a posted speed of 80 kph with adequate climbing lanes that provide sufficient opportunity to overtake slower vehicles.

It is the diversion of trips for travel between Alberni and the east side of the island (Nanaimo, Qualicum Beach, zones 1000 and 2000 to 4000, 5000 and 6000 and vice versa) that will be impacted by the shape of the curve (i.e. B coefficient and Bias assumption) as shown by the red dotted line in Figure 12. The difference in generalized cost minutes favours the new route by a relatively small amount (7 minutes or 10%) indicating that the new route would be a viable option for that segment of trip makers. As such, it was decided that a 20% to 25% diversion rate would be reasonable. Thus, a coefficient of ‐0.25 and a bias term of +1.0 were used in the binary logit model. These assumptions, specifically the bias, could be



refined further with an analysis of historic data on the existing route that provide evidence of issues encountered on the existing route, such as closures or queuing behind trucks.

During the peak hour of the base year (2012), it was estimated that approximately 465 and 500 vph would be travelling along the existing Highway 4 route in the eastbound and westbound directions, respectively. When the HLC route is coded in the model, and based on the assumptions and inputs discussed previously, it is estimated that approximately 20 to 22% of the existing trips on Highway 4 will divert to the HLC. Table 5 provides a summary of the base year (2012) and projected horizon year (2041) traffic volumes on the road network, with and without the HLC.

Table 5. Peak Hour Traffic Volumes To/From Port Alberni – With and Without Diversion

Scenario Highway 2012 (vph) 2041 (vph)

EB WB EB WB

Without HLC Highway 4 465 500 505 540

With HLC Highway 4 370 390 405 420

HLC 95 110 100 120

% Diversion to HLC 20% 22% 20% 22%

Appendix F Highway 4 Improvement Projects

493483_TR1014151032VBC E‐1 REPORT PREPARED FOR BC MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE BY CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED, 2015

APPENDIX E

Highway 4 Improvements Projects

Project 1 – Westbound Acceleration Lane at Highway 4 and Highway 19

LKI Segment 2356 – Km 0

The Highway 4 Safety Review (Opus, 2009) recommended a review of the on and off ramps at the Highway 4/Highway 19 interchange. CH2M’s review identified that adding a WB acceleration lane to Highway 4 for traffic exiting Highway 19 and proceeding west on Highway 4 would reduce conflicts with vehicles yielding at the intersection. The scope of work for the project would be to construct a 150 m acceleration with a 70 m taper for traffic exiting Highway 19 to merge with Highway 4 WB traffic. For this project, 2.0 m paved shoulders were used to match the existing road configuration.

All work can be contained within the existing highway right‐of‐way (ROW). Local terrain would allow the development of a clear zone, so CRB would not be required. The eastern side of Highway 4 is illuminated, so additional luminaires would likely not be necessary.

Project 2 – Hilliers Road Park and Ride Facility

LKI Segment 2356 – Km 1

To accommodate the large number of vehicles parked on the highway at Hilliers Road, a concept design for a Park and Ride facility was developed and located off of Hilliers Road to avoid having to construct an additional access on Highway 4. The Park and Ride layout would provide room for 30 vehicles. The Highway 4 and Hilliers Road intersection is illuminated, but additional lighting would be required for the parking area.

Project 3 – Britain Boulevard Intersection

LKI Segment 2355 – Km 3.7

To improve safety at Britain Boulevard, widening of the median to 3.6 m is proposed to allow left‐turning vehicles a refuge area to wait for safe opportunities to complete the left‐turn movement. The median would be widened on both sides of the centreline, reducing the risk of impacting adjacent properties. The access to Britain Boulevard would be relocated slightly further east to line up with the opposing access on the other side of Highway 4. The project entails reconstruction of about 500 m of Highway 4 and the installation of two luminaires at the intersection. The relocation of two utility poles may also be required, but cannot be confirmed at this stage.

HIGHWAY 4 IMPROVEMENTS PROJECTS

E‐2 493483_TR1014151032VBC REPORT PREPARED FOR BC MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE BY CH2M HILL CANADA LIMITED, 2015

Figure E‐1. Highway 4 at Britain Boulevard

Project 4 – Little Qualicum Falls Park Entrance Realignment


The Little Qualicum Falls Park entrance is near the start of a climbing and passing lane between Km 6.7 and Km 7.6. Realigning approximately 600 m of Highway 4 would improve the sight distances for turning vehicles at the park entrance. The realignment also offers the opportunity to move the start of the climbing and passing lane closer to the bottom of the hill. These changes would improve the overall safety at the intersection.

Project 5 – Koen Road Realignment


Currently WB drivers turning into Koen Road have to make the left‐turn from the inside passing lane and to stop in the lane if there is oncoming traffic. In addition, the passing lane ends before the crest of the hill, just west of Koen Road, and at the start of a curve with a 60 km/h speed advisory.

The proposed project includes a right‐in and right‐out at Koen Road to eliminate the left‐turn movements, and combined with Project 6 – Gravel Pit Turnaround, would allow Koen Road residents a safer access. The project also realigns Highway 4 to eliminate the 60 km/h curve and extends the climbing and passing lane beyond the crest of the hill. The scope of work also includes the installation of luminaires at Koen Road.



Figure E‐2. Koen Road and End of Climbing Lane

Project 6 – Gravel Pit Turnaround

LKI Segment 2355, Km 8.5

The turnaround was proposed as part of Project 5 to allow Koen Road residents a turnaround opportunity close to Koen Road. Using the turnaround eliminated the need for left‐turn movements from the inside passing lane at Koen Road.

The turnaround was developed to allow access to traffic in both directions. The turnaround can also be used when there are road closures to provide drivers the opportunity to turn around, if required.

Project 7 – Cameron Lake Beach Access


There are two existing accesses to the Cameron Lake beach parking area, both of which are substandard. The existing parking lot is very small and insufficient; during the summer, numerous vehicles park along both sides of the highway. The proposed project combines a highway realignment with improved access to Chalet Road and uses the existing highway for parking. The new parking area would be separated from the highway by a CRB. The parking area also provides another turnaround opportunity for both EB and WB traffic.



Figure E‐3. Cameron Lake Beach Access

Project 7A – Angel Rock


Angel Rock is a location along Cameron Lake where the roadway width is restricted, with minimal shoulders, between a vertical, overhanging rock face and a steep downslope. The highway alignment is under a 50 km/h speed advisory for one km in the vicinity of Angel Rock. The proposed work includes constructing a retaining wall on the downslope to provide additional roadway width to allow the addition of wider paved shoulders and sufficient room to install CRB on both sides of the highway. Opus also recommended the installation of additional delineation to improve visibility at night and in poor weather conditions.

Figure E‐4. Angel Rock



Project 8 – Beaufort Rest Area


Parking at the Beaufort Rest Area is very limited, and access on and off the highway is poor. The Highway 4 alignment is also very restricted and is posted with 50 km/h advisories. The proposed project would provide a 300 m highway realignment with an improved parking area for the Beaufort Rest Area. The parking area provides a turnaround for WB traffic, but due to the challenging terrain, it was deemed not cost‐effective to provide a turnaround opportunity for EB traffic as well. It is anticipated that the construction of the project would require significant rock excavation.

Project 9 – Cathedral Grove Parking Area


The Cathedral Grove section on Highway 4 raises significant safety concerns because of high pedestrian volumes, lack of adequate parking areas, and existing traffic speeds. The proposed project includes improved parking areas on both sides of the highway that are separated from highway traffic by CRBs. The parking areas would be configured to provide parking for cars, recreational vehicles, and buses. There is a dedicated crosswalk with pedestrian‐activated advanced flashing lights. The layout could be arranged to avoid the larger trees or relocated to another area of the park where development of the parking areas would have less impact on the old growth trees. Further study would be required to determine the preferred location(s).

To avoid detrimental impact to the trees, construction would have to be outside of the tree dripline, as the trees cannot tolerate any soil that buries the main stem or covering of the roots.

Project 10 – Chain‐Up Facility


Project 10 consists of the construction of a chain‐up facility and turnaround. The facility would be located before the highway climbs up to the Highway 4 summit. This an ideal area for trucks to chain up when required due to weather conditions, and also provides an opportunity for vehicles to turn around if the highway is closed or if motorists do not want to proceed.

Project 11 – Realignment and Passing Lane Extension

LKI Segment 2355, Km 22 to Km 23

Project 11 includes the realignment of Highway 4 to eliminate the existing 50 km/h curve and also extends the WB climbing and passing lane further to the east to the base of the hill. This allows earlier separation of general traffic and slower‐moving commercial and recreational vehicle traffic.

The proposed realignment is designed to accommodate an 80 km/h design speed. The realignment requires significant rock excavation and a large mechanically stabilized earth (MSE) retaining wall. The proposed retaining wall would be approximately 20 m in height. BC MoTI generally does not accept MSE walls over 15 m in height. Options to reduce the height of the MSE wall could include using a cast‐in‐place starter wall to reduce the overall height of the MSE wall, or the wall could be ‘stepped’ by constructing two shorter walls. Other options may also come to light during preliminary design.

Changes to the alignment could also reduce the height of the wall, but may increase the rock excavation quantity. Reducing the design speed would reduce the height of the retaining wall and could reduce the rock excavation if a lower design speed is acceptable.



Figure E‐5. Start of Climbing Lane, km 22 Access

Project 12 – Passing Lane Extension

LKI Segment 2355, Km 25

Project 12 extends the present passing and climbing lane over the crest of the hill and past the present brake check area. The brake check area would be reconfigured with appropriate exit and entrance ramps. This project would not only expand the passing opportunities, but also allow for better movement of vehicles around the brake check facility.

500

501

502

503

504

150m

70m

3.6

3.62.

0 SH

LD.

2.0

SHLD

.

HIG

HW

AY 4

(MEM

OR

IAL

AVE.

)

HIGHWAY 19

(INLAND ISLAND HIGHWAY)

SIGNATUREDATE REVISIONSREV

REG DRAWING NUMBERPROJECT NUMBERFILE NUMBER

SCALECAD FILENAME

DATE

MINISTRY OF TRANSPORTATIONAND INFRASTRUCTURE

REV

DESIGNED

DATE

SENIOR DESIGNER

QUALITY CONTROL

QUALITY ASSURANCE

DRAWN

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HIGHWAY ENGINEERING AND GEOMATICSHEADQUARTERS

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2015-09-11

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YYYY-MM-DD

YYYY-MM-DD 493483 1.0

BRITISHCOLUMBIA

0 10 50m1:1000

PROPOSEDACCELERATIONLANE

EXISTINGLANE

DRAFT - FORDISCUSSION ONLY

HIGHWAY 4HWY. 4 WB ACCELERATION LANE (km 0.0)

SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS CONCEPT SKETCHPLAN - VANCOUVER ISLAND

NOTE:

1. ALL LINE WORK , INCLUDINGANY EXISTING FEATURESWERE GENERATED WITH AHIGH DEGREE OF ESTIMATION.DRAWING TO BE INTERPRETEDAS A CONCEPT ONLY.

2. DESIGN SPEED = 80km/h

HWY. 19 TO HWY. 4 IMPROVEMENTS

TO P

ORT

ALB

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TO Q

UALI

CUM

HIG

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4

(MEM

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COOMBS ROAD

HILLIERS ROAD S.

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MS

HB

QA BY

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YYYY-MM-DD

YYYY-MM-DD

YYYY-MM-DD 493483 2.0

BRITISHCOLUMBIA

0 5 25m1:500


NOTE:



PROPOSED PARK AND RIDELOT (30 STALLS TOTAL).

HIGHWAY 4PARK AND RIDE LOT (km 1.0)SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS CONCEPT SKETCH

PLAN - VANCOUVER ISLAND

MATCH EXISTING

SECTION A-ASCALE 1:100

3.6SHLDR LANE

HWY.4CL

3.6 3.61.5 1.5SHLDRLANE

3.6

EX.LANE

EX.LANE

3.61.5

EX.SHLDR.

1.5

EX.SHLDR.

EX. HIGHWAY 4

101

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103

104

104

TO PORT ALBERNI

TO QUALICUM

A

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BRITAIN BLVD.

DR

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BRITAIN BLVD. INTERSECTION IMPROVEMENTS



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2015-10-07

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BRITISHCOLUMBIABRITISHCOLUMBIA

0 5 25m1:500HIGHWAY 4

BRITAIN BLVD. INTERSECTION (km 3.7)SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS CONCEPT SKETCH



NOTE:



ADD LEFT TURN LANES

UPGRADE EXISTING INTERSECTION

TO PORT ALBERNI

TO QUALICUM

HIGHWAY 4

100

101 102

103

104

105106

107

108

LITT

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PROPOSED RE-ALIGNMENT

MATCH EXISTING

MATCH EXISTING

R = 400

HIGHWAY 4LITTLE QUALICUM PARK ENTRANCE RE-ALIGNMENT (km 6.6)


TO PORT ALBERNI

TO QUALICUM

HIGHWAY 4

500

501

502

503 504

505

506507 508

100

101

102

103

104

105 106 106

KOEN ROAD

ELD ROAD

A

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3.6EX. LANE

3.6EX. LANE

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EX. HWY.4CL

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PROPOSED RE-ALIGNMENTAND CLIMBING LANEEXTENSION (±650m)

MATCH EXISTING

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R = 700

HIGHWAY 4KOEN ROAD RE-ALIGNMENT (km 7.5)


RIGHT IN/ RIGHT OUT

TO QUALICUM

TO PORT ALBERNI

HIGHWAY 4

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NOTE:



WIDEN HIGHWAY EXISTING HIGHWAYCENTRE LINE

FORCED RIGHTLANE EXIT

MATCH EXISTING

MATCH EXISTING

TO QUALICUM

TO PORT ALBERNI

EX. HIGHWAY 4

CAMERON LAKE BEACH ACCESS

PATH TO PICNIC AREA

300

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CHALET ROAD

CAMERON LAKE

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NOTE:



APPROXIMATE NORTH EDGEEXISTING HWY

PARKING LOT ±14 VEHICLES ENERGY ATTENUATOR

TO QUALICUM

ANGEL ROCK

TO PORTALBERNI

CAMERON LAKE

EW

EW

EW

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EW

A

A100+00100+20

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3.6LANE

1.5SHLDR

PROPOSED HWY.4CL

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ANGEL ROCK (km 12.7)SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS CONCEPT SKETCH



NOTE:


EXISTING CHWY. 4

REMOVE EXISTING "W" BEAM GUARD RAIL

EXISTING CONCRETEROADSIDE BARRIER(APPROX. 1.0m OFF PAINT LINE)

PROPOSEDWIDENING

PROPOSED CHWY. 4

L

L

RETAINING WALL

CRB ANDRETAINING WALL

TO QUALICUM

BEAUFORT REST AREA

200

201

202

203203

TO PORT ALBERNI

HIGHWAY 4

CAMERON LAKE

EW

EW

EW

EW

EW

EW

EW

EW

EW

EW

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AA


3.6EX. LANE

3.6EX. LANE

EX. HWY.4CL

PROPOSEDHWY.4

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3.61.5 3.6 1.51.0 3.0

8.5 3.5

PROPOSEDPARKING



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NOTE:



3. NO ACCESS TO REST AREAFOR EAST BOUND TRAFFIC

UTILIZE EXISTING HIGHWAYPAVEMENT WHERE POSSIBLE

PARKING LOT ±15 VEHICLES

RE-ALIGN HIGHWAY(±300m)

EXISTING HIGHWAYCENTRE LINE

ENERGY ATTENUATOR

3.6EX. LANE1.5

EX.SHLDR

7.9

EXISTINGPARKING AREA

6.00.5 3.3LANE 0.7

1.0


NEW PARKING STALLCONFIGURATION(6m X 3m STALLS @ 35°)

3.6EX. LANE 1.5

EX.SHLDR

6.0 0.53.3LANE0.7

1.0

HWY.4CL

NEW BARRIER NEW BARRIER

±14.0

NEW PARKING STALLCONFIGURATION

(6m X 3m STALLS @ 35°)

±14.0

7.9

EXISTINGPARKING AREA

EX.FENCE

EX.FENCE

301

302

303

304

TO PORT ALBERNI

TO QUALICUM

HIGHWAY 4

A

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CATHEDRAL GROVE (km 17.5)SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS CONCEPT SKETCH



NOTE:



APPROXIMATE EXISTINGSTRUCTURES (TYP.)

APPROXIMATE BACK OFEXISTING PARKING LOT

EXPANDED PARKING FORMOTOR HOMES

EXPANDED PARKINGFOR BUSES

CATHEDRAL GROVE(MacMILLIAN PROVINCIAL PARK)

ENERGY ATTENUATOR

TO QUALICUM

TO PORT ALBERNI

EX. HIGHWAY 4

501

502 503504

505

506

507

508



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CHAIN-UP FACILITY / TURNAROUND (km 20.5)SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS CONCEPT SKETCH



NOTE:


2. DESIGN SPEED = 80km/h CHAIN-UP AREA

TO PORT ALBERNI

TO QUALICUM

HIGHWAY 4

km 2

3

km 22

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

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3.6EX. LANE

3.6EX. LANE

EX. HWY.4CL

EDGE OFEX. PAVE

EDGE OFEX. PAVE

SECTION B-BSCALE 1:250

3.6EX. LANE

3.6EX. LANE

3.6EX. LANE

EX. HWY.4CL

PROPOSEDHWY.4

CL

3.63.61.5 3.6 1.5

EDGE OFEX. PAVE

EDGE OFEX. PAVE


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NOTE:



3. EXISTING 8% UP GRADE (WB)

R= 250m

PROPOSEDRE-ALIGNMENT(±1.2km)

MATCH EXISTING

MATCH EXISTING / STARTPASSING LANE

START OF EXISTINGCLIMBING LANE

HIGHWAY 4CLIMBING LANE (km 22 TO 23)


206

207

208

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210

211

TO PORT ALBERNI

TO QUALICUM

HIGHWAY 4

200

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212213

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215

216

HIGHWAY 4



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NOTE:



LKI 2

5

EXTEND PASSINGLANE (MATCHEXISTING)

END PASSING LANE

SHIFT EXISTING WB.BRAKE CHECK

EXISTING EB.BRAKE-CHECK

SEE DETAIL

MATCH EXISTING

DETAILSCALE 1:1000

HIGHWAY 4WB PASSING LANE @ BRAKE CHECK (km 25)


Appendix G Safety Benefits of

Potential Improvements

TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM

Horne Lake Business Case – Safety Benefits for Benefit-Cost Analysis PREPARED FOR: Janelle Erwin and Dave Edgar/ BCMoTI PREPARED BY: Bob Bigelow / CH2M REVIEWED BY: Mike Baker / CH2M DATE: December 11, 2015 PROJECT NUMBER: 493483

Introduction The purpose of this Technical Memorandum is to provide a summary of the methodology used in calculating the safety benefits for the two proposed improvement scenarios:

• Proposed Horne Lake Connector (HLC) option with the existing Highway 4 • Highway 4 improvements option, implementing 13 projects along the current corridor to increase

safety, reliability and capacity.

Collision Prediction Models and Collision Modification Factors A collision prediction model (CPM) is a regression model that produces an estimate of the collision frequency for a location based on the site-specific characteristics of the location. For a highway segment, the AADT and road length are inputs to the CPM, which produces a collision frequency estimate as shown below:

𝐸𝐸(Λ) = 𝑎𝑎𝑜𝑜𝑉𝑉1𝑎𝑎1𝐿𝐿1

𝑎𝑎2 Where: 𝐸𝐸(Λ) = collision frequency (collisions/year) V1 = section AADT L1 = section length a0, a1, a2 = model parameters

For intersections, the CPM utilizes the number of vehicles entering the intersection from the major and minor legs of the intersection as shown below:

𝐸𝐸(Λ) = 𝑎𝑎𝑜𝑜𝑉𝑉1𝑎𝑎1𝑉𝑉2

𝑎𝑎2 Where: 𝐸𝐸(Λ) = collision frequency (collisions/year) V1 = AADT for major road V2 = AADT for minor road a0, a1, a2 = model parameters

For this study, the Collision Prediction Models (CPMs) for British Columbia incorporated into BC MoTI Safety-Ben Cost tool was used to estimate the number of collisions along Highway 4 and the HLC.

Generally, CPMs only consider high-level characteristics of an intersection or highway segment. Therefore, a collision modification factor (CMF) is used to account for the detailed design characteristics for each improvement. A CMF is a multiplicative factor to the collision frequency estimate of CPMs.

𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 =𝐸𝐸𝑊𝑊(Λ)𝐸𝐸𝑊𝑊/𝑂𝑂(Λ)


𝐸𝐸𝑊𝑊(Λ) = Expected number of collisions with proposed change 𝐸𝐸𝑊𝑊/𝑂𝑂(Λ) = Expected number of collisions without proposed change

It is very common that improvements could involve changes to several design elements at the same time. Therefore, there is a need to combine CMFs to reflect all of the improvements.

𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 = 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶1 × 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶2 × … × 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑛𝑛

𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 = Combined collision modification factor for all n improvements 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶1…𝑛𝑛 = Individual collision modification factor for each improvement

A summary of the CMFs used in this analysis is provided in Table 1. The following two sources were used in determining these factors:

• CMF for BC 2008 – Collision Modification Factors for British Columbia, December 2008 • HSM 2010 – Highway Safety Manual 2010 – 1st Edition

For the Highway 4 Improvements, a number of CMFs were available from these sources based on the specific geometric improvements. However, given the length of the proposed HLC option, it was not practical to break it down into smaller segments in order to determine site specific CMFs. Therefore, only the AADT and corridor length were used as inputs when calculating the predicted collisions for this alignment. The same methodology was used to estimate the change in collisions on Highway 4 and Highway 19 that results from diverting traffic to the HLC.


Table 1. Summary of CMFs Used for Improvement Options

Highway Feature Highway 4 Improvement Projects

HLC Source 1 2 3 4 5 / 6 7 7A 8 9 10 11 12

Provide Acceleration Lane 0.91

n/a

n/a

n/a

HSM 2010

Intersection Skew Angle Existing/Improvement 1.10 /

1.00 1.07 / 1.00 1.10 /

1.00 HSM 2010

Provide Left Turn Lanes 0.72 0.56 CMF for BC 2008

Provide Right Turn Lanes 0.86 CMF for BC 2008

Horizontal Alignment Existing/Improvement 1.10 /

1.00 1.12 / 1.04 1.66 /

1.00 CMF for BC 2008

Passing/Climbing Lane 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 CMF for BC 2008

Shoulder Widening Existing/Improvement 1.35 /

1.07 CMF for BC 2008

Add Roadside Barrier 0.91 CMF for BC 2008

Sources: CMF for BC 2008 – Collision Modification Factors for British Columbia, December 2008 HSM 2010 – Highway Safety Manual 2010 – 1st Edition


Safety Benefits for Benefit-Cost Analysis Assumptions Typically, a benefit-cost analysis is conducted using an analysis period of 25 years, which assumes 1 year for construction and 24 years of benefits. However, it is assumed that the short-term Highway 4 projects (1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10 and 12) would take five years to be completed and the benefits would not be fully realized until 2021. Projects 2, 7, 7A, 8, 9, and 11, as well as the HLC, are considered to be longer term projects and would take 11 years to construct, with benefits to traffic starting in 2027.

In order to maintain a minimum of 24 years of benefits for all options, a 35-year analysis period has been assumed for this study, starting in 2016 and ending in 2050. As a result, the short-term projects will accrue 30 years of benefits (2021 through 2050), while the long-term projects and the HLC will accrue 24 years of benefits (2027 through 2050).

In addition to the assumed benefit period, the following assumptions were used in estimating the safety benefits for each of the proposed improvements:

• Discount rate of 6 percent, • Annual traffic growth rate of 1.5 percent, and • Diversion rate of traffic to the HLC of 21 percent.

Safety Benefits A summary of the safety benefits for the two proposed improvement options is provided in Table 2.

The key factor that affects the safety benefits for the HLC option is the diversion of traffic from Highway 4 to the HLC. Overall, the HLC option results in a net safety dis-benefit of $8.5 million over the 35-year analysis period, assuming benefits start in 2027 once all segments of the HLC have been constructed. This dis-benefit is the result of the following:

• The reduction in traffic on Highway 4 will decrease the predicted collisions, resulting in a positive benefit of $14.1 million over the analysis period.

• The increase in traffic on the HLC will have the opposite effect, resulting in a dis-benefit of $22.5 million.

• Similarly, the increase in traffic on Highway 19 between the HLC and Highway 4 will result in a dis-benefit of $0.1 million.

A number of the projects proposed along Highway 4 will result in safety benefits for the respective highway segments and/or intersections when compared against the base conditions. Using BC MoTI’s Safety-Ben tool along with the CMFs presented in Table 1, the combined Net Present Value (2015 $) of safety benefits for the Highway 4 projects is estimated to be $6.9 million over the length of the analysis period. This assumes that the safety benefits for the short-term projects (Projects 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, and 12) start in 2021 and continue through to 2050. For the long-term projects, safety benefits will not start until 2027.


Table 3. Summary of Safety Benefits

Project

Number of Collisions in Final Analysis Year (2050)* Safety Benefit

(2015 $millions)** Existing Conditions

With Proposed Improvements

Change in Collisions

PROPOSED HLC

HLC 0.0 17.2 +17.2 ($22.5)

Hwy 4 69.4 58.3 -11.1 $14.1

Hwy 19 8.6 8.9 +0.3 ($0.1)

HLC Total 78.0 84.4 +6.4 ($8.5)

HIGHWAY 4 WITH IMPROVEMENTS

1 0.6 0.5 -0.1 $0.1

2 - - - -

3 1.5 1.0 -0.5 $0.6

4 3.1 2.5 -0.6 $1.2

5 / 6 3.3 2.8 -0.5 $1.1

7 1.7 0.7 -1.0 $0.8

7A 0.4 0.3 -0.1 $0.1

8 1.4 0.9 -0.5 $0.7

9 0.5 0.4 -0.1 $0.1

10 - - - -

11 2.0 1.5 -0.5 $0.6

12 3.1 2.3 -0.8 $1.6

Hwy 4 Total 17.6 12.9 -4.7 $6.9

*Predicted collisions shown are only for the final year of the analysis period. Annual reductions vary each year due to growing traffic volumes. **Negative values shown in (red brackets) indicate safety dis-benefits

Appendix H Expanded Assessment Matrix

HORNE LAKE CONNECTOR BUSINESS CASE APPENDIX H Printed: 2/29/2016

Comments Rating Comments Rating

Travel Times

Vehicle Operating Costs

Reliability (traffic)

Reliability (weather)

Safety

Access to Services

Alignment with Official Community Plans

Property Impacts

Parks

Recreation

Build the new HLC and continue regular

operations and maintenance of Highway 4.

Hwy 4 projects would have localized impacts on some Cathedral Grove trails.

Negligible change to existing Hwy 4 corridor; continued operations and maintenance of which is a consistent base assumption inherent to area OCPs. Minimal changes to noise impacts to adjacent properties.

Proposed HLC would increase traffic volumes and traffic speeds along Horne Lake Road and Horne Lake Caves Road, potentially impact visitors' enjoyment of adjacent parks. Wider road ROW may also impact park facilities and boundaries.

Proposed HLC would have significant impacts (visual, noise, etc.) on nearby trails and camp sites, as it traverses through both Horne Lake Caves Provincial Park and Horne Lake Regional Park. May provide improved access to park facilities including Canadian Heritage Trail.

Negligible change in travel times.

Negligible change in vehicle operating costs.

Improvements provide safety and accessibility benefits that may reduce occurrence of unplanned traffic-related closures.

Safety benefits computed using BC MoTI's Safety-Ben Cost tool and collision modification factors. $6.9M benefits.

Negligible change in accessibility to health services and higher education.

Weather conditions along HLC may be more severe than along Hwy 4, and will require increased winter maintenance over and above that already provide on Hwy 4.

Improvements will have negligible impact on weather-related closures.

CU

ST

OM

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SE

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SO

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CO

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UN

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$12.1M travel time savings for traffic to/from the north, offset by $1.6M travel time costs for traffic to/from the south.$13.4M vehicle operating cost savings for traffic to/from the north, offset by $6.4M vehicle operating costs for traffic to/from the south.Alternate route enables continuation of travel during planned and unplanned closures. Benefit to the public is magnified for closures of significant duration, provided advance notification of delays is given to travellers.

Safety benefits were computed using industry standard practices (i.e., BC MoTI's Safety-Ben Cost tool and collision modification factors):- Diversion of traffic from Hwy 4 yields $14.1M benefits- Increase in traffic on HLC yields $22.5M disbenefits- Increase in traffic on Hwy 19 yields $0.1M disbenefits- Net effect is $8.5M disbenefits

Assesses changes in accessibility to health services and higher education. Port Alberni residents and local First Nations communities are dependent on health/ hospital services in Comox, Courtney, and/or Nanaimo. HLC would provide much improved access to these services, and an alternative route in the event of major delays along Highway 4.

Alternative Transportation Routes (especially the proposed HLC) is one of three priority initiatives in the 'Connected Community' goal in the City of Port Alberni's Corporate Strategic Plan. However, the majority of the route is located within the RDN and it is not currently mentioned in the RDN OCP. There is opportunity to consider amendment of the OCP for the Horne Lake area.

Property values may be impacted due to improved accessibility provided by proposed HLC. Enjoyment of the property may be impacted by increased traffic and increased noise.

Highway 4 With Improvements

Implement 13 improvement projects along Highway 4

to increase safety, reliability, and capacity.

Proposed Horne Lake Connector (HLC)Account Evaluation Criteria

Property impacts associated with Hwy 4 improvements would be localized. Minimal change to noise impacts expected.

Hwy 4 projects would improve pedestrian safety and parking access along the highway, providing benefits to visitors of MacMillan and Little Qualicum Falls Provincial Parks. The improvements to parking at Cameron Lake Beach Access, Beaufort Rest Area, and Cathedral Grove will separate recreational traffic from highway through traffic.

H-1

HORNE LAKE CONNECTOR BUSINESS CASE APPENDIX H Printed: 2/29/2016

Comments Rating Comments Rating

Build the new HLC and continue regular

operations and maintenance of Highway 4.

Highway 4 With Improvements

Implement 13 improvement projects along Highway 4

to increase safety, reliability, and capacity.

Proposed Horne Lake Connector (HLC)Account Evaluation Criteria

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Related to Auto Travel

Air Pollution - Criteria Air Contaminant (CAC)

Agricultural Impacts

Terrestrial (Flora / Fauna) Impacts

Aquatic Impacts

Water Resource Impacts

Geotechnical Risks

Archaeological and Historical Use

Economic Development Objectives

Access to Regional Markets

Impacts on Local Business Competitiveness

LEGEND

Much WorseWorseNeutralBetterMuch Better

Negligible impact on economic development potential.

Negligible impact on access to regional markets.

Negligible impact on local business competitiveness.

Similar impacts associated with Hwy 4 Improvements, but to a much lesser extent in terms of land area affected.

Hwy 4 improvements may have localized impacts on adjacent rivers and creeks, though any anticipated sedimentation can be mitigated by construction best practices.

Hwy 4 improvements are not expected to have any direct impacts on drinking water resources.

Hwy 4 improvements are confined to the existing corridor, so exposure to geotechnical risks does not change.

Hwy 4 improvements are confined to the existing corridor, so impacts to adjacent sensitive sites are expected to be minimal.

Hwy 4 improvements do not measurably change VKT, and so do not result in any travel-related GHG emissions savings.

Hwy 4 improvements do not measurably change VKT, and so do not result in any CAC emissions savings.

Hwy 4 improvements do not impact on ALR lands.

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ON

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Proposed HLC provides alternative high speed route that improves reliability to support economic development. Benefits to goods movers are largely captured under the Customer Service account. However, increased accessibility may add to the viability of proposed initiatives such as: the Port Alberni Transshipment Hub; airport expansion; and expanded use of Port Alberni port facilities to support the resource sector. Proposed HLC would also provide access to North Island College.Proposed HLC improves accessibility, enabling a larger market to be reached from Port Alberni including a more direct route to the Comox Valley and its airport. A new route would make Port Alberni more attractive to those companies looking to start up or expand to Vancouver Island. Costs of haulage can affect competitiveness of local businesses. Proposed HLC provides a benefit to local businesses in the form of improved reliability which is important in an era of just-in-time delivery.

Key variable in travel-related GHG emissions is VKT. Proposed HLC expected to produce overall reduction in VKT (predominantly associated with northbound traffic), resulting in 23,400 tonnes of GHG emissions savings.

EN

VIR

ON

ME

NT

AL

CAC emissions depend on variety of factors including VKT, speed, engine type, and mode of operation. Simplifying assumption made to vary CAC with VKT. Proposed HLC expected to produce overall reduction in VKT, resulting in reduction in CAC emissions.

Impact on ALR lands is unlikely.

Potential impacts to plant and sensitive species includes removal, disturbance, alteration, or loss of habitat as a result of construction of the proposed HLC.Construction and operations of the proposed HLC will potentially impact Horne Lake, as well as the Qualicum River and its tributaries.

Proposed HLC is aligned very close to Lacy Lake, which provides drinking water to the Cherry Creek Improvement District.Mount Mark slide poses significant risk to HLC. There are known rock fall areas along Horne Lake Caves Road and other potential areas along the proposed HLC.There are potential sites of archaeological or historic significance along Horne Lake Road, Horne Lake Caves Road, and the proposed HLC. Construction may impact the Canadian Heritage Trail.

H-2

Appendix I Potential Project Risks

493483_TR1014151032VBC I-1


APPENDIX I

Potential Project Risks

Risk Name Risk Description Possible Impact to Project Implementation Suggested Risk Response Strategy

First Nations

First Nations interests in the Horne Lake Connector project Although Indian Reserves have not been identified in proximity to the HLC, First Nations may have an interest in this project.

First Nations interests may have to be considered in the final alignment for the HLC together with mitigation of any perceived impacts

BC MoTI should prepare consultation letters to advise First Nations of the project.

Planning & Design (Alignment, Drainage, Geotechnical)

Design and Approval schedule Schedule for implementation of Highway 4 improvements should be clearly defined to assist with effective contract scheduling. Delay in implementing improvements may result in ongoing safety and reliability issues increasing user costs.

Design and approval schedule for HLC will be critical to obtaining necessary environmental approvals and developing the cash flow for this major construction project.

Assumptions made for this report assume that construction for Highway 4 improvements would commence in 2016, whereas it has been assumed that construction for HLC would not commence for 5 years.

Develop project life cycle schedule through approvals, tender and construction completion. Use this schedule to establish the permitting and approvals schedule.

Design and Construction Budget Development of a robust design and construction budget is key to successful project execution.

Conceptual design cost estimates were prepared for this study using BC MoTI cost estimating databases. The list of assumptions made is included in Section 6 of this report. These costs are subject to variation dependent upon many factors and the contingency factor has been based on the level of design completed as part of this study.

Once a decision has been made on which option(s) will be developed further, a preliminary design cost estimate should be developed using LiDAR and/or topographical survey. This estimate will provide greater certainty on the specific risks associated with the project and enable BC MoTI to undertake additional work where necessary.

Geotechnical investigation A full geotechnical investigation together with geotechnical design recommendations is required to complete detailed design.

Geotechnical investigation and design for the Highway 4 improvement projects will vary, depending on which project is under consideration. Many projects will require a pavement investigation and select test pits along the length of the project. Other projects, such as at Angel Rock will require more extensive investigation in order to complete the retaining wall design.

The geotechnical investigation for the HLC will be significant and will require careful planning to optimize the use of available resources and to meet the desired design approval and construction schedule.

BC MoTI should develop a geotechnical investigation plan and schedule that is coordinated with the preliminary and detailed design. Close coordination with the various disciplines will be critical to successful completion of the investigation and design.

Environment

Horne Lake Caves Provincial Park and Horne Lake Regional Park Located west of Horne Lake. The parks are under the jurisdiction of BC Parks (on provincial Crown land) and the Regional District of Nanaimo (on municipal-owned land), respectively; additional studies and permits would be required for each park in consultation with BC Parks and Regional District of Nanaimo.

Disturbance to vegetation and recreational use the parks To the extent practical, use existing disturbed areas for construction activities in the parks.

Seek to reduce clearing of conifer trees. If conifers must be removed, construct wildlife trees by limbing the trees and cutting the stumps as high as practical.

Seek to limit equipment and traffic in the parks, to the extent practical.

Karst – Mount Mark Formation Mount Mark Formation is located around Horne Lake. This formation has been rated Primary Likelihood meaning > 50 percent of the limestone bed rock is estimated to be soluble. Pure to very pure limestone. Known caves in the area.

Alteration of karst formation. This topography can be difficult to build on due to potential for sink holes.

Implement the mitigation measures in the Karst Management Handbook for BC for areas where Karst features are identified (BC Ministry of Forests 2003).

Agriculture Land Reserve (ALR) (Polygon ID 760005 and 760035) Located to the east of Illusion Lake and possibly entering Port Alberni from Lacey Lake

Removal of land from ALR. Permitting through the ALR will require additional time and cost.

Adhere to the Environmental Management Act (EMA) to reduce the potential impacts of the Project on agricultural lands. Comply with the Agricultural Land Commission requirements regarding soil handling and reclamation during construction in the ALR.

APPENDIX I – POTENTIAL PROJECT RISKS

493483_TR1014151032VBC I-2


Risk Name Risk Description Possible Impact to Project Implementation Suggested Risk Response Strategy

Special Management Area (Legal) - Vancouver Island Land Use Plan (LUP)

Upper Qualicum Resource Management Zone (RMZ) 20 is crossed northwest of Horne Lake. The 3 primary values of this zone are 1) ecosection biodiversity representation 2) Recreational opportunities associated with the river 3) Wildlife and fish habitats and populations.

Overall Management Guidance: This small zone should be managed with focus on retention/ replacement of old seral forest attributes, as well as demonstration of alternative silvicultural practices throughout.

Temporary disturbance to terrestrial and aquatic resources in the RMZ. These areas are set aside to protect high value resources and meet certain management objectives. Constructing through these areas would require discussions with the BC Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations and municipalities. In addition, local bylaws apply within with these areas.


Implement a Post-Construction Monitoring Plan to evaluate the effectiveness of project mitigation measures and restoration work. Where required, additional mitigation measures will be implemented.

Third Parties (Municipalities, Regional Districts, Utilities, public)

Public Approval Public opposition to project(s) may force last minute design changes. Timing of initial and ongoing consultation/feedback is critical to achieving public acceptance.

Implement a public communications plan and hold an Open House.

Communications Plan An effective communications plan is critical for the success of this project. Often the public and stakeholders will not accept the recommendations unless regular ongoing communication and consultation has occurred throughout the design development process. Opposition to the plan may impact schedule and cost.

Develop a communications plan early in the next stage of this project and work with stakeholders to verify that it meets expectations.

OCP Update The majority of the proposed HLC route is located within the Regional District of Nanaimo (RDN). Although it is not currently mentioned in the RDN OCP, there is potential that the RDN could amend its OCP to include the proposed HLC.

Additional consultation with this key stakeholder may impact schedule and cost.

Provide a copy of the Business Case report to the RDN.

Properties

Property impacts and requirements Property impacts are expected to be significant adjacent to the Horne Lake community strata.

In addition, it is expected that the cost of constructing Section 1 of the HLC through timber lease lands will be quite costly.

Also connecting to Highway 4 will pass through several private properties in Port Alberni.

Cost estimates do not include property acquisition costs. Develop a preliminary design for the recommended option and determine the impact to existing properties and the cost of acquisition.

Construction (Access, Traffic Management, Weather)

Traffic Management during Construction along Highway 4 and Horne Lake Caves Road

Significant traffic delays could occur on Highway 4 during construction of the improvements.

Access to Horne Lake Caves Road and the Horne Lake Community will be a concern if the HLC were to be built

Need to maintain two-way traffic during construction whenever possible.

Access to the Provincial and Regional Parks and the Horne Lake Community will need to be maintained throughout the construction of the HLC.

Preliminary staging strategy should be developed during preliminary design.

For the HLC, consideration will be required to maintaining local access to the Horne Lake Community and for recreational traffic accessing the parks.

horne lake connector business case 2016

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