[email protected] conceptual models for non-stationarity hong li 1, stein beldring 2 &...
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[email protected] http://folk.uio.no/hongli
Conceptual Models for Non-stationarity
Hong Li1, Stein Beldring2 & Chong-Yu Xu1
1. Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway
2. Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate , Norway
SimHYD (Australia), Xinanjiang (China) & HBV (Sweden)
Towards Improved Projections, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Gothenburg, Sweden, July 2013
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The Wimmera catchment in AustraliaCoordinates: Lat: -36.98; Lon: 142.79Catchment area: 2000 km²Country: AustraliaQ: 02 Jan 1965 - 31 Aug 2009 (whole)P, T and PE: 01 Jan 1960 - 31 Aug 2009
1997
P1: 01/01/1966-31/12/1973P2: 01/01/1974-31/12/1981P3: 01/01/1982-31/12/1989P4: 01/01/1990-31/12/1997P5: 01/01/1998-31/12/2005
Q
H
Short summary of the three models
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Model SimHYD XAJ HBV
Input Data P, PE P, PE P, T
Cal. Pars. 7 15 12
Country Australia China Sweden
All the models are for discharge simulation at daily time step.XAJ: XinanjiangP: PrecipitationPE: Potential evaporationT: TemperatureCal. Pars.: Calibrated paramters
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SimHYD
Input: P, PECal. Pars.: 7
Chiew, 2005
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XAJ
Input: P, PECal. Pars.: 15
Jiang, 2007
=0
Distribution of tension water capacity
Zhao, 1992
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HBV
Input: P, TCal. Pars.:12 Temperature
Solomatine, 2011
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Results of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE)NSE>0.6: reasonable NSE>0.8: good
Blue: the calibration in each period Red: the validation in the complete periodBlack: the calibration in the complete period
Best
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Results of Bias (Sim/Obs)0.9-1.1: reasonable 0.95-1.05: good
Blue: the calibration in each period Red: the validation in the complete periodBlack: the calibration in the complete period
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What will happen if in flood frequency design?Model (NSE): max Q
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Conclusions: …
XAJ model is the best, and limited.
New measuring technology is neededModel structures need to be updated or modified
THANK YOU
KEEP BUSY!!!