honeywell goldman sachs great china tour - honeywell transportation systems
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2 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
This report contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All statements, other than statements of fact, that address activities, events or developments that we or our management intend, expect, project, believe or anticipate will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on management’s assumptions and assessments in light of past experience and trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other relevant factors. They are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results, developments and business decisions may differ from those envisaged by our forward-looking statements. Our forward-looking statements are also subject to risks and uncertainties, which can affect our performance in both the near- and long-term. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our Form 10-K and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Forward Looking Statements
3 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
34%36%
• 118,000 employees in nearly 100 countries
• A Fortune 75 company – $30 billion in sales in 2006
• One of 30 select companies in the DJIA
Honeywell Today
•Pie Chart calculated using 2005 Sales
Americas
ChinaAPAC
EMEA
External Sales $0.6BTotal Trade $1.2B
4 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
Aero
TS
SM
ACS
HON in China
Rapid Expansion
Sales by Segment
2005 $550M
2006E $800M
V% 45%
Investment Timeline 1993 1995 19981994
ACSTianjin Ltd.SH C&KSinopec JV
AEROR&O SitesACSC&K ChinaTSFriction
1990 - 2000
2002 2005SMUOP
2001 - 2005
ACSSensorsTSHTT
AEROAPU Parts
1996AEROECS Parts
ACSFireS&C
2003SMNylon
External Sales
+4,000 employees21 Legal Entities: 11 wholly-owned10 joint ventures
5 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
China’s Contribution To Global Growth
China Share of Worldwide Global RankAbsolute size 2004 Growth 1999-2004 Size Growth
GDP 710.8%4.1% 2
Exports 36.6% 14.1% 1
Imports 36.2% 13.8% 1
Foreign Direct Investment 38.2% N.M.* 1
International Reserves** 214.7% 21.0% 2
China A Major Growth Engine For The World
* Global FDI over 1999-2004 declined at 7% annually** International reserves include foreign currency and gold reserves Source: EIU, World Bank
Capital Expenditure 331.0%8.8% 1
China represents 4% of world economy but accounts for 11% of global growth
China represents 4% of world economy but accounts for 11% of global growth
6 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
Industrial GDP Contribution
Half of industrial growth is expected to come from emerging markets
China is Leading ERs in Terms of Scale and SpeedEmerging Region
Rea
l ind
ustr
ial G
DP
1999
–201
5(1)
(US$
trill
ion)
(1) At 1996 pricesSource: EIU; World Bank; CIA; BCG estimates
1.24 1.231.19
0.41 0.40 0.38 0.350.28
0.18
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
NAFTA China EU SouthAmerica
SEA Japan Russia India EasternEurope
7 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
USA China India SE Asia Russia LatinAmerica
EU5 East-centralEurope
Japan
Long Term Global Growth Outlook: 2005-2030
Source: EIU, Global Outlook (May 2005)
Significant Economic Strength
Incremental GDP Created between 2005-2030 ($B)
8 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
Consumer Products GroupConsumer Products GroupTurbo TechnologiesTurbo Technologies
Transportation Systems
2003 2004 2005 2006E
Sales ($B) Sales by Region~4.4
3.74.3 4.5
2006E2003 2004 2005
57% 43%
Leader In Key Automotive Segments
43%
57% Europe48%
Turbo
CPG
Americas42%
Asia10%
Revenue Mix Geography Mix
9 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
Salesby Region
Salesby Segment
Turbo TechnologiesTurbo Volume
Priorities • Technology leadership• Platform wins• VPD™ and HOS as competitive advantage• Key Customers: All major OEMs
Global Leader In Turbo Technology
Europe58%
Europe58%
Americas30%
Americas30%
Asia12%Asia12%
PassengerVehicles
67%
PassengerVehicles
67%
Comm’lDiesel33%
Comm’lDiesel33%
~9Munits
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006E
10 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
Consumer Products Group
Priorities
• Win with winners • Extend brands• Global growth• Key Customers: Retailers, WD, OEM
6 Strong Brands Focused On Growth In Asia
Salesby Brand
Salesby Region
Bendix-Jurid42%
FRAM23%
Prestone-Holts25%
Autolite10%
Europe32%
Americas62%
Asia6%
11 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
TS Asia Footprint
MONGOLIA
CHINA
THAILAND
MALAYSIA
SINGAPORE
PHILIPPINES
INDONESIA
AUSTRALIA
NEW ZEALAND
KOREA
INDIA
JAPAN
$450M Sales, 1,500 People
• CPG – Friction-Guangzhou
Manufacturing-Thailand JV – 50%
Manufacturing-Malaysia JV – 50%
Manufacturing-Ballarat JV – 51%
Manufacturing
• CPG – Holt Lloyd-Japan JV – 90%
Distribution-SE Asia / China
Branches-Australia / New Zealand
Distribution
• Turbo-China
ManufacturingGlobal Tech Center
-JapanManufacturingTechnical center
-KoreaManufacturing
- India, Opened 4Q05Manufacturing
-SydneyManufacturing
12 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
TS Aspirations for China
China Business Growth
• Growth above market• Sustain profitability
Revolutionize Global Cost Structure
Expand into New Markets &
Adjacencies
Create Global Growth Platform
Based on Key Themes
1
2
3
4
5
China As A Key Growth Platform
How we think about China: • Employees• Assets• R&D• People
• Market• Sales• Profits• Sourcing
13 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
-5,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Hw
y K
ilom
eter
s
East Central West
Auto Industry and Drivers - China
• Automotive considered pillar industry for the nation
• Emphasis on energy & environmental protection
• Coastal area GDP drives demand for private vehicles
• JVs still only path for foreign OEs to succeed
• Industry keen to build local brands
• Overseas expansion: not ‘if” but “when”0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
HMCV LCV PV
Vehicle Market Demand (‘000)
Highway Cargo Transportation Turnover (Bn T) / KM
2005 8322004 7622003 7102002 6782001 6332000 613
China’s Coastal Area
Third Largest Automotive Market In The World
China ’06 GDP Growth: 8%
• 35.8% of nation‘s GDP in 2005
• 30% of nation’s real investment in 2005
• 78% of nation’s real usage of foreign investment
Highway Expansion
Source: DRI
14 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
NOxNOx & Particulates& Particulates
China Set To Follow European Emission Standard
European CO2 Reduction ObjectivesEuropean CO2 Reduction ObjectivesC
O2
[g/k
m]
2002 20122008100
180
160
140
120
165g/km
140g/km
-15%120g/km
-27%
Automotive Emission Legislation
NOx (g/Km)
JapanPM[g/Km]
Japan 2000
Japan 2005
0.05
0.10
NOx (g/Km)
USA
0.0 0.5 0.8 Nox (g/km)
Tier I (1994)
Tier II (2004)
0.05
0.10
PM[g/Km]
Europe/China
0.5 0.8
Euro II (1996/2004)
Euro III (2001/2007)
Euro IV (2005/2010)
0.05
0.10
PM[g/Km]
0.0 0.5 0.8 0.0
Tier II (2007)Euro V (2009/Not decided)
15 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
YOYGRYOYGR
Diesel RateDiesel Rate
Turbo RateTurbo Rate
Automotive Market Dynamic
• China headlines, passenger car boom
• CV segment flat, broad YOY fluctuations
• LV diesel growth, turbo rate increasing with
emission standards
• PV Diesel on Government agenda
• Key Enablers: Fuel, Offer, Taxation
11%-20%34%-5%CV
5%6%10%15%LV
16%26%14%71%PV
96%95%95%93%CV
39%36%35%34%LV
1.3%0.9%0.4%0.2%PV
94%92%92%91%CV
22%19%16%10%LV
0.7%0.4%0.1%0.0%PV
Increasing Requirement For Clean Technologies Favors TS
• Improve engine efficiency: 30% less fuel burned
• Reduce CO2 emission by 30%
• Meets most stringent emission standards (Euro IV/V)
• Improve performance: power and torque
• Proven and reliable technology available, today
Benefits of “Turbo” Diesel
Segment Analysis
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
HMCV LCV PV
Vehicle Market Demand (‘000)
Source: DRI 2003 2004 2005 2006
16 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
“There is great disorder under heaven.The situation is excellent!”
- Chairman Mao
“The sky is high and the emperor is far!”
- Anonymous
However......
China: You Are Always Learning!
17 Goldman Sachs, China Industrial Tour, May 8, 2006
Location: Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park, Pudong New Area
Ownership: Wholly owned
Initial Investment: US$27 million
Groundbreaking: September, 1994
Land area: 24,500 sq. m.
Building area: 8,000 sq. m.
Output (2004) 470,000 units
Employees: 350
Products: Turbochargers
Customers: Major engine manufacturer
Honeywell Turbo China
Successful Business Since 1994