7/27/2019 Homicide Rates in three Texas Border cities between 1985 and 2011

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Homicide Rates in El Paso, Brownsville and Laredo Texas between 1985 and2011

J. Creechan, Toronto

The following data describing homicide rates in three Texas Border Cities is from the UCR online

access tool, and graphs were generated by J.Creechan.

Crime reported by El Paso Police Dept, Texas

Year

Violent crime in El Paso Texas (UCR online access tool)

HomicideRate

1

PopulationViolent

crime total

Murder &nonnegligentmanslaughter

Forciblerape

RobberyAggravated

assault

1985 4.6 474,870 3,662 22 181 993 2,466

1986 9.5 483,925 4,734 46 198 1,039 3,451

1987 5.1 494,954 4,332 25 219 969 3,119

1988 6.2 501,544 4,505 31 242 1,088 3,144

1989 8.0 515,607 4,722 41 241 1,139 3,301

1990 6.6 515,342 5,111 34 256 1,381 3,440

1991 9.3 526,339 5,616 49 265 1,484 3,818

1992 8.2 535,655 5,826 44 272 1,610 3,900

1993 8.5 554,515 6,109 47 281 1,561 4,220

1994 7.8 565,183 5,369 44 233 1,086 4,006

1995 6.3 590,215 4,948 37 242 1,076 3,593

1996 5.0 602,951 5,138 30 245 1,195 3,6681997 3.9 612,754 4,849 24 225 1,066 3,534

1998 2.7 624,510 4,374 17 241 823 3,293

1999 2.2 623,888 4,280 14 185 715 3,366

2000 3.5 563,662 4,396 20 188 731 3,457

2001 3.5 576,453 4,386 20 203 775 3,388

2002 2.4 588,750 3,892 14 221 575 3,082

2003 3.6 586,392 3,502 21 219 581 2,681

2004 1.9 593,924 3,242 11 201 570 2,460

2005 2.3 601,839 2,621 14 301 448 1,858

2006 2.1 615,553 2,422 13 300 503 1,6062007 2.8 616,029 2,574 17 258 472 1,827

2008 2.8 612,374 2,825 17 181 456 2,171

2009 1.9 618,812 2,830 12 182 452 2,184

2010 0.8 649,121 2,861 5 179 479 2,198

2011 2.4 662,780 2,858 16 217 464 2,161

1Homicide Rate = (Murder & non-negligent homicide/population) * 100,000

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eRulemaking|Freedom of Information Act/Privacy|Legal Policies and Disclaimers| USA.gov|White HouseUCRDATATOOL.gov is an official site of the U.S. Federal Government,U.S. Department of Justice.

Crime reported by Laredo, Texas

Year MurderRate PopulationViolentcrime total

Murder andnonnegligentmanslaughter

Forciblerape Robbery

Aggravatedassault

1985 13.48 111,268 600 15 40 138 407

1986 17.64 113,390 600 20 7 139 434

1987 9.34 117,811 555 11 8 121 415

1988 12.50 120,027 763 15 8 178 562

1989 8.74 125,862 1,138 11 6 156 965

1990 11.39 122,899 750 14 17 158 561

1991 11.95 125,521 879 15 14 173 677

1992 16.44 127,742 904 21 14 158 711

1993 15.09 139,194 1,053 21 7 163 8621994 16.92 141,872 994 24 6 208 756

1995 9.17 152,736 1,107 14 22 174 897

1996 7.05 156,032 1,040 11 27 242 760

1997 6.94 158,569 813 11 56 193 553

1998 6.34 173,484 836 11 68 219 538

1999 4.49 178,314 829 8 57 167 597

2000 5.66 176,576 972 10 65 181 716

2001 4.43 180,583 1,121 8 39 200 874

2002 3.80 184,435 1,107 7 58 203 839

2003 14.91 194,516 1,317 29 55 257 976

2004 7.47 200,805 1,088 15 52 220 801

2005 8.71 206,555 1,054 18 64 246 726

2006 10.25 214,670 1,198 22 96 266 814

2007 4.52 221,253 1,281 10 81 325 865

2008 4.49 222,870 1,357 10 78 311 958

2009 7.49 226,944 1,294 17 73 309 895

2010 3.81 236,091 1,142 9 78 209 846

2011 4.56 241,059 1,120 11 76 215 818

http://www.regulations.gov/http://www.regulations.gov/http://foia.fbi.gov/http://foia.fbi.gov/http://foia.fbi.gov/http://www.usdoj.gov/legalpolicies.htmhttp://www.usdoj.gov/legalpolicies.htmhttp://www.usdoj.gov/legalpolicies.htmhttp://www.usa.gov/http://www.usa.gov/http://www.usa.gov/http://www.whitehouse.gov/http://www.whitehouse.gov/http://www.whitehouse.gov/http://www.usdoj.gov/http://www.usdoj.gov/http://www.usdoj.gov/http://www.usdoj.gov/http://www.whitehouse.gov/http://www.usa.gov/http://www.usdoj.gov/legalpolicies.htmhttp://foia.fbi.gov/http://www.regulations.gov/

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Violent Crime reported by Brownsville Police Dept, Texas

Year

Homicide

Rate Population

Violent

crime

total

Murder and

nonnegligent

manslaughter

Forcible

rape Robbery

Aggravated

assault1985 9.19 97,970 995 9 11 133 842

1986 6.07 98,783 1,301 6 24 155 1,116

1987 7.78 102,765 1,265 8 70 127 1,060

1988 8.61 104,579 1,404 9 84 205 1,106

1989 13.28 105,458 727 14 53 155 505

1990 13.14 98,962 773 13 36 172 552

1991 18.00 99,990 822 18 31 224 549

1992 15.00 99,990 874 15 29 198 632

1993 15.76 107,838 1,097 17 28 281 771

1994 10.92 109,912 920 12 31 268 609

1995 6.09 115,029 817 7 26 204 580

1996 9.36 117,511 1,151 11 22 231 887

1997 6.70 119,421 1,271 8 41 217 1,005

1998 10.20 137,252 904 14 24 168 698

1999 2.86 139,868 783 4 26 166 587

2000 4.29 139,722 912 6 29 181 696

2001 4.90 142,893 809 7 27 180 595

2002 0.69 145,941 806 1 32 181 592

2003 5.24 152,764 757 8 42 164 543

2004 0.63 158,801 851 1 48 162 640

2005 2.44 163,877 903 4 53 128 718

2006 2.90 172,239 867 5 46 168 648

2007 2.82 177,090 880 5 21 207 647

2008 2.26 176,893 634 4 26 173 431

2009 2.23 179,491 454 4 26 152 272

2010 4.00 175,023 563 7 31 165 360

2011 0.56 178,706 500 1 37 109 353

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0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

El Paso Homicide Rate by Year (UCR)

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Osiel Cardenas Guillen was arrested in Matamoros in March 2003 and imprisoned in Mexico in Almoloya de

Juarez (Altiplano aka La Palma)

At the time he was still "close to los Zetas" - and in fact had sought them out due to his obsessive"paranoia"

about being betrayed from within his ranks. He trusted los Zetas (especially Guzman Decena) - but had little

confidence in any of the other people who were originally part of the cartel he inherited from Juan Garcia

Abrego.

Ricardo Ravelo (El Narco en Mexico: Historia y historias de una guerra) describes Crdenal Guillen's fanatic

obsession with "rooting our enemies" and uncovering those who wanted to kill him. His nickname "El

Mataamigos" was well deserved (especially related to his hunting down of Chava Gomez in order to seize

control of the cartel.

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Crdenas Guillen was running things and ordering hits against his enemies even while in prison (pages 208-

10) and there was a wave of violence throughout the State.

According to Ravelo " Entre los aos 2003y 2006, Osiel controla la prisin e incluso puede planear

ejecuciones dentro de la carcl. A l se atribuye, por ejemplo, el asesinato de Arturo Guzmn Loera, el Pollos,

hermano del Chapo". (210)

Estos hechos acelerado an ms los planes del gobierno para extraditar a Osiel Cardenas a los Estados

Unidos, donde tena cuentas pendientes con la justicia"

This homicide data was downloaded on a whim but it's clear that something very different occurred in

Laredo during the years (2003-2007). A jump in homicides on the American side is NOT evident in El Paso-

even though el Chapo Guzman had arranged the execution of Vicente Carrillo Fuente's younger brother (El

Nio del Oro) in September 2004 and unleased a bloody war between the Sinaloa and Juarez cartels. This

empirical "spike" in Laredo made me wonder about a "reason" it happened there and not in El Paso. A

ll I did here was graphically impose two important facts about Osiel Crdenas Guillen and it is empirically

interesting that the Laredo TX spike corresponded to those years between his imprisonment and his

extradition. As you probably know, the Gulf cartel (from Juan Abrego Garcia onward) seems to have alwayshad "American ties" and many of its members were actually dual citizens or American.

The numbers represented in this period are too few to talk about statistical significance and certainty. There

is not a normal distribution when the numbers are this small, and analysts must be very careful about

jumping to conclusions. But, the spike in the homicide rate is unusual and it does happen during a period

when Osiel was in prison and ordering hits, and it stopped when he lost access to his "cell phone".

By the way, Ricardo Ravelo's observations are taken from the testimony of a protected witness who used to

be Osiel's "valet" and "right hand man". His apodo in Mexico is El Paquito, but the protected witness name is

Rufino.

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