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Page 1: Holiday - IBM THINK Marketing

U.S. Retail

Black Friday2015 IBM WATSON TREND

Retail

Black Friday Report

WATSON TREND

Report

Page 2: Holiday - IBM THINK Marketing

Black Friday Report 2015

Summary ‘Tis the season to be shopping Friday deals on Thanksgiving Day, with online retail sales rising by 26 percent yearAdding to Thanksgiving tradition, mobile shopping all online traffic and 40 percent of all online sales. Momentum into Black Friday led to an increase in online retail sales of with mobile growing in double digits. Led by mobile shopping, consumers indicatedDre, LG TVs and more were at the top of their shoppiWatson Trend. Some of the fastest trending products for Black Friday included Minecraft Video Game (plus Gameband Wearable Accessory), Pie Face Game, Phillips TVs, Asus Zenbok Laptop and Toshiba Satellite The IBM Watson Trend features the hottest 100 consumer electronics, toys and health and fitness products at any given time. millions of online conversations by scouring 10,000 sources across social media sites, blogs, forums, comments, ratings and reviews. Using Watson’s understanding of natural language and machine uncovers consumer preferences to pinpoint patterns and trends to reveal why people are choosing certain products or brands. The app also uses predictive analytics to forecast if a particular trend is a fleeting fad or will co For Black Friday IBM identified additional popular products and the stories behind them:

• Beats by Dre: Beats headphones, earbuds, and speakers have been wildly popular since first appearing in 2008. Watson finds growing chatter aWired On-Ear headphones as well as the release of Dr. Dre's unheard tracks on Apple’s Beats 1 streaming music channel. Additional trending headphones include Sennheiser, Bose, Skullcandy and Sure.

• Jordan Shoes: Known best for its oriBrand has released a new line of performance running shoes. Watson finds that the line is being lauded for both their aesthetics and foot support and is gaining popularity among consumers who sported the

• Nintendo Super Smash Bros:significant buzz and Watson knows why. While the game features popular Nintendo characters such as Mario, Donkey Kong and Pokémon, it’s the “unof Final Fantasy’s Cloud Strife that has gamers buzzing with excitement.

• MeccaNoid Personal Robots:

popular this year but many parents are also looking to more “edutainment” focused Watson reports that many parents are looking at MeccaNoid, which teaches kids from ages 8 to 12 how to create, learn and code so they can ultimately build their own robot.

 

‘Tis the season to be shopping – online! Consumers continued to take advantage of early Black on Thanksgiving Day, with online retail sales rising by 26 percent year

Adding to Thanksgiving tradition, mobile shopping soared, accounting for nearly 60 percent of all online traffic and 40 percent of all online sales.

Friday led to an increase in online retail sales of 21.5with mobile growing in double digits.

Led by mobile shopping, consumers indicated Samsung TVs, Apple Watch, Sony TVs, Beats by Dre, LG TVs and more were at the top of their shopping lists for Black Friday, according to IBM

Some of the fastest trending products for Black Friday included Minecraft Video Game (plus Gameband Wearable Accessory), Pie Face Game, Phillips TVs, Asus Zenbok Laptop and Toshiba Satellite

The IBM Watson Trend features the hottest 100 consumer electronics, toys and health and fitness products at any given time. The IBM Watson Trend app distills the sentiment of tens of millions of online conversations by scouring 10,000 sources across social media sites, blogs, forums, comments, ratings and reviews.

Using Watson’s understanding of natural language and machine learning technologies, the app uncovers consumer preferences to pinpoint patterns and trends to reveal why people are choosing certain products or brands. The app also uses predictive analytics to forecast if a particular trend is a fleeting fad or will continue to remain strong.

For Black Friday IBM identified additional popular products and the stories behind them:Beats headphones, earbuds, and speakers have been wildly popular

since first appearing in 2008. Watson finds growing chatter around the Beats Solo2 Ear headphones as well as the release of Dr. Dre's unheard tracks on Apple’s

Beats 1 streaming music channel. Additional trending headphones include Sennheiser, Bose, Skullcandy and Sure.

Known best for its original Air Jordan line of basketball sneakers, Jordan Brand has released a new line of performance running shoes. Watson finds that the line is being lauded for both their aesthetics and foot support and is gaining popularity among consumers who sported the original sneakers in the 1990s.

Nintendo Super Smash Bros: Nintendo’s Super Smash Bros for Wii U is generating significant buzz and Watson knows why. While the game features popular Nintendo characters such as Mario, Donkey Kong and Pokémon, it’s the “unof Final Fantasy’s Cloud Strife that has gamers buzzing with excitement.

MeccaNoid Personal Robots: Personal robots including those from Star Wars are popular this year but many parents are also looking to more “edutainment” focused Watson reports that many parents are looking at MeccaNoid, which teaches kids from ages 8 to 12 how to create, learn and code so they can ultimately build their own robot.

2

continued to take advantage of early Black on Thanksgiving Day, with online retail sales rising by 26 percent year-over-year.

accounting for nearly 60 percent of

21.5 percent over 2014

Samsung TVs, Apple Watch, Sony TVs, Beats by ng lists for Black Friday, according to IBM

Some of the fastest trending products for Black Friday included Minecraft Video Game (plus Gameband Wearable Accessory), Pie Face Game, Phillips TVs, Asus Zenbok Laptop and Toshiba Satellite Laptops.

The IBM Watson Trend features the hottest 100 consumer electronics, toys and health and The IBM Watson Trend app distills the sentiment of tens of

millions of online conversations by scouring 10,000 sources across social media sites, blogs,

learning technologies, the app uncovers consumer preferences to pinpoint patterns and trends to reveal why people are choosing certain products or brands. The app also uses predictive analytics to forecast if a

For Black Friday IBM identified additional popular products and the stories behind them: Beats headphones, earbuds, and speakers have been wildly popular

round the Beats Solo2 Ear headphones as well as the release of Dr. Dre's unheard tracks on Apple’s

Beats 1 streaming music channel. Additional trending headphones include Sennheiser,

ginal Air Jordan line of basketball sneakers, Jordan Brand has released a new line of performance running shoes. Watson finds that the line is being lauded for both their aesthetics and foot support and is gaining popularity

original sneakers in the 1990s.

Nintendo’s Super Smash Bros for Wii U is generating significant buzz and Watson knows why. While the game features popular Nintendo characters such as Mario, Donkey Kong and Pokémon, it’s the “unprecedented” addition of Final Fantasy’s Cloud Strife that has gamers buzzing with excitement.

Personal robots including those from Star Wars are popular this year but many parents are also looking to more “edutainment” focused gifts. Watson reports that many parents are looking at MeccaNoid, which teaches kids from ages 8 to 12 how to create, learn and code so they can ultimately build their own robot.

Page 3: Holiday - IBM THINK Marketing

Black Friday Report 2015

As consumers use the IBM Watson Trend app to pinpoint what products are popular and why, IBM also reports on how consumers are shopping. IBM identified the following trends on Friday:

• Consumers Cash in on Black Friday Dealsand desktop shopper combined for Black Friday was $127.84, down slightly from 2014at $129.37.

• Consumers Balance Mobile and Desktop Shoppingvia their mobile devicesall online traffic, an increase of 15.2 percent over 2014. Mobile sales were also strong, with 36.2 percent of all online sales coming fr30 percent over last year.

• Tablets Out Spend Desktops$136.42 exceeded that of desktops, which ended the day at $134.06. Smartphone shoppers spent $121.06 per or

• Smartphones Shoppers Dominatedevice of choice. Smartphones accounted for 44.7 percent of all online traffic, 3 and a half times that of tablets at 12.5 percent. Sdriving 20.6 percent of online sales (up nearly 75 percent over 2014) versus tablets at 15.5 percent.

As consumers use the IBM Watson Trend app to pinpoint what products are popular and why, IBM also reports on how consumers are shopping. IBM identified the following trends on

Consumers Cash in on Black Friday Deals: The average order value and desktop shopper combined for Black Friday was $127.84, down slightly from 2014

Consumers Balance Mobile and Desktop Shopping: Consumers continued to shop via their mobile devices—mobile traffic exceeded desktop, accounting for 57.2 percent of all online traffic, an increase of 15.2 percent over 2014. Mobile sales were also strong, with 36.2 percent of all online sales coming from mobile devices, an increase of nearly 30 percent over last year.

Tablets Out Spend Desktops: For the first time, Tablets average order value of $136.42 exceeded that of desktops, which ended the day at $134.06. Smartphone shoppers spent $121.06 per order, an increase of 4.3 percent over 2014.

Smartphones Shoppers Dominate: Smartphones remained the Black Friday shopper’s device of choice. Smartphones accounted for 44.7 percent of all online traffic, 3 and a half times that of tablets at 12.5 percent. Smartphones surpassed tablets in sales, driving 20.6 percent of online sales (up nearly 75 percent over 2014) versus tablets at

3

As consumers use the IBM Watson Trend app to pinpoint what products are popular and why, IBM also reports on how consumers are shopping. IBM identified the following trends on Black

: The average order value for the mobile and desktop shopper combined for Black Friday was $127.84, down slightly from 2014

: Consumers continued to shop mobile traffic exceeded desktop, accounting for 57.2 percent of

all online traffic, an increase of 15.2 percent over 2014. Mobile sales were also strong, om mobile devices, an increase of nearly

: For the first time, Tablets average order value of $136.42 exceeded that of desktops, which ended the day at $134.06. Smartphone

der, an increase of 4.3 percent over 2014.

: Smartphones remained the Black Friday shopper’s device of choice. Smartphones accounted for 44.7 percent of all online traffic, 3 and a

martphones surpassed tablets in sales, driving 20.6 percent of online sales (up nearly 75 percent over 2014) versus tablets at

Page 4: Holiday - IBM THINK Marketing

Black Friday Report 2015

U.S. Retail Black Friday Sales

Black Friday 2015

Black Friday

Transaction Metrics

Items per Order

Average Order Value

Conversion Rate

New Visitor Conversion Rate

Shopping Cart Sessions

Shopping Cart Conversion Rate

Shopping Cart Abandonment Rate

Session Traffic Metrics

Average Session Length

Bounce (One Page) Rate

Browsing Sessions

Page Views Per Session

Product Views Per Session

Desktop Metrics

Desktop: % of Sales

Desktop: % of Site Traffic

Desktop: Bounce Rate

Desktop: Conversion Rate

Desktop: Average Order Value

Mobile Metrics

Mobile: % of Sales

Mobile: % of Site Traffic

Mobile: Bounce Rate

Mobile: Conversion Rate

Mobile: Average Order Value

Black Friday Sales vs. Black Friday 2014 ▲21.46% vs. Thanksgiving 2015 ▲52.04%

Black Friday Black Friday Thanksgiving

2015 2015 vs. 2014 2015

4.08 2.77% 4.20

$127.84 -1.18% $123.45

4.20% 6.33% 3.65%

3.26% 3.49% 2.69%

15.36% 16.10% 14.63%

27.19% -1.38% 24.82%

72.81% 0.52% 75.18%

8:44 3.56% 8:26

31.26% -0.35% 32.40%

50.60% 6.19% 49.52%

8.76 4.66% 8.64

2.59 7.47% 2.52

63.82% -11.43% 59.95%

42.66% -14.92% 40.01%

28.16% 0.64% 29.72%

6.34% 9.31% 5.46%

$134.06 -0.94% $131.17

36.16% 29.56% 40.03%

57.19% 15.23% 59.81%

33.57% -3.48% 34.18%

2.97% 12.08% 2.82%

$121.06 4.34% $113.40

4

Thanksgiving Black Friday vs.

Thanksgiving 2015

-2.86%

$123.45 3.56%

15.07%

21.19%

14.63% 4.99%

24.82% 9.55%

75.18% -3.15%

3.56%

32.40% -3.52%

49.52% 2.18%

1.39%

2.78%

59.95% 6.46%

40.01% 6.62%

29.72% -5.25%

16.12%

$131.17 2.20%

40.03% -9.67%

59.81% -4.38%

34.18% -1.78%

5.32%

$113.40 6.75%

Page 5: Holiday - IBM THINK Marketing

Black Friday Report 2015

While online retail sales for Thanksgiving outpaced Thanksgiving sales by 52%.

Online retail sales for Black Friday peaked at 2014.

12:00 AM 2:30 AM 5:00 AM 7:30 AM

Online Sales 2015

Thanksgiving

U.S. Retail, 24-hr Real-time Sales

12:00 AM 2:30 AM 5:00 AM 7:30 AM

Black FridayU.S. Retail, 24-hr Real-time Sales

sales for Thanksgiving increased by 26% over 214, Black Fridayoutpaced Thanksgiving sales by 52%.

sales for Black Friday peaked at 10:00 AM PST with sales increasing

7:30 AM 10:00 AM 12:30 PM 3:00 PM 5:30 PM 8:00 PM

Time of Day (PST)

Online Sales 2015

Thanksgiving Black Friday

Sales

7:30 AM 10:00 AM 12:30 PM 3:00 PM 5:30 PM 8:00 PM

Time of Day (PST)

2014 2015

time Sales Sales peaked at 10:00 AM

5

, Black Friday 2015 sales

ST with sales increasing 21.5%% over

10:30 PM

8:00 PM 10:30 PM

Page 6: Holiday - IBM THINK Marketing

Black Friday Report 2015

Mobile growth has exploded since 2010 with more traffic being generated from mobile devices than desktop on Black Friday 2015.

Smartphones and tables combined outpaced desktop in generating traffic. Further, tablet average order value eclipsed thatlarger screen real estate performed better in other metrics such as percentage sales, conversion rate, bounce rate and average page views.

3.2%

9.8%5.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2010 2011

Black Friday, 2010-2015Mobile % of Sales and Site Traffic

$111.66

2.4%

20.6%

Average Order Value

Average Page Views

Bounce Rate

Conversion Rate

% of Sales

% of Traffic

Black Friday 2015Performance by Device/Platform

Mobile growth has exploded since 2010 with more traffic being generated from mobile devices than desktop on Black Friday 2015.

Smartphones and tables combined outpaced desktop in generating traffic. Further, tablet average order value eclipsed that of desktop for the first time. Nonetheless, desktop, with its larger screen real estate performed better in other metrics such as percentage sales, conversion rate, bounce rate and average page views.

9.8%

16.3%21.8%

27.9%

14.3%

24.0%

39.7%

49.6%

2011 2012 2013 2014

2015

Mobile % of Sales Mobile % of Traffic

$111.66

7.5

34.4%

20.6%

44.7%

$136.42

8.6

30.5%

5.2%

15.5%

12.5%

6.3%

63.8%

42.7%

Smartphone Tablet Desktop

6

Mobile growth has exploded since 2010 with more traffic being generated from mobile devices

Smartphones and tables combined outpaced desktop in generating traffic. Further, tablet

of desktop for the first time. Nonetheless, desktop, with its larger screen real estate performed better in other metrics such as percentage sales,

36.2%

57.2%

2015

$134.06

10.3

28.2%

6.3%

42.7%

Page 7: Holiday - IBM THINK Marketing

Black Friday Report 2015

Smartphone sales and traffic have increased dramatically over tablets Friday 2015, smartphone percentage sales outpaced tablets whiletablets.

iOS outpaced Android in many online shopping metrics, howeveaverage page views per session

11.8%16.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2014

Black Friday, 2014-2015Smartphone vs. Tablet YoY Sales and Traffic Growth

Smartphone % of Sales

Average Order Value

Average Page Views

Bounce Rate

Conversion Rate

% of Online Sales

% of Online Site Traffic

Black Friday 2015 Performance by Mobile OS

Smartphone sales and traffic have increased dramatically over tablets since 2014.percentage sales outpaced tablets while traffic was 3

iOS outpaced Android in many online shopping metrics, however Android had slightly higher average page views per session.

20.6%

16.0% 15.5%

34.7%

44.7%

14.6%12.5%

2014 2015

2015Smartphone vs. Tablet YoY Sales and Traffic Growth

Smartphone % of Sales Tablet % of Sales Smartphone % of Traffic

Android iOS

17.3% 39.6%

8.3% 27.7%

2.5% 3.2%

33.1% 33.8%

8.0 7.6

$107.60 $125.83

7

since 2014. On Black

traffic was 3.5X that of

r Android had slightly higher

12.5%

Tablet % of Traffic

Page 8: Holiday - IBM THINK Marketing

Black Friday Report 2015

Transaction Summary Metrics1. Items Per Order

The average number of items purchased per order 2. Average Order Value

The average value of a submitted order3. Conversion Rate

The percentage of sessions that resulted in an order4. New Visitor Conversion Rate

Out of all new visitor sessions, the percentage that completed an order5. Shopping Cart Session Percentage

The percentage of sessions in which visitors placed at least one item in their shopping 6. Shopping Cart Conversion Rate

The percentage of shopping carts that resulted in an order 7. Shopping Cart Abandonment Rate

The percentage of shopping carts that are abandoned without completing the order Session Traffic Summary Metrics 1. Average Session Length

The average length of time for a visitor session 2. Bounce (One Page) Rate

The percentage of sessions in which visitors only viewed one page before leaving the site3. Browsing Session Percentage

The percentage of sessions in which visitors viewed4. Page Views Per Session

The average number of pages viewed in a single session5. Product Views Per Session

The average number of products viewed in a single session Desktop and Mobile Summary Metrics1. Percentage of Sales

Out of all online sales, the percentage that was from desktop (or) from mobile devices2. Percentage of Site Traffic

Out of all sessions, the percentage that was from desktop (or) from mobile devices 3. Bounce Rate

The percentage of sessions from desktop (or) from mobviewed one page before leaving the site

4. Conversion Rate The percentage of sessions from desktop (or) from mobile devices that resulted in an order

5. Average Order Value The average value of orders submitted by desktop (or)  

 

Transaction Summary Metrics

The average number of items purchased per order

The average value of a submitted order

sessions that resulted in an order New Visitor Conversion Rate Out of all new visitor sessions, the percentage that completed an orderShopping Cart Session Percentage The percentage of sessions in which visitors placed at least one item in their shopping Shopping Cart Conversion Rate The percentage of shopping carts that resulted in an order Shopping Cart Abandonment Rate The percentage of shopping carts that are abandoned without completing the order

Session Traffic Summary Metrics sion Length

The average length of time for a visitor session Bounce (One Page) Rate The percentage of sessions in which visitors only viewed one page before leaving the siteBrowsing Session Percentage The percentage of sessions in which visitors viewed at least one product pagePage Views Per Session The average number of pages viewed in a single session Product Views Per Session

The average number of products viewed in a single session

Desktop and Mobile Summary Metrics

all online sales, the percentage that was from desktop (or) from mobile devicesof Site Traffic

Out of all sessions, the percentage that was from desktop (or) from mobile devices

The percentage of sessions from desktop (or) from mobile devices in which visitors only viewed one page before leaving the site

The percentage of sessions from desktop (or) from mobile devices that resulted in an order

The average value of orders submitted by desktop (or) by mobile devices

 

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Out of all new visitor sessions, the percentage that completed an order

The percentage of sessions in which visitors placed at least one item in their shopping carts

The percentage of shopping carts that are abandoned without completing the order

The percentage of sessions in which visitors only viewed one page before leaving the site

at least one product page

all online sales, the percentage that was from desktop (or) from mobile devices

Out of all sessions, the percentage that was from desktop (or) from mobile devices

ile devices in which visitors only

The percentage of sessions from desktop (or) from mobile devices that resulted in an order

by mobile devices

Page 9: Holiday - IBM THINK Marketing

Black Friday Report 2015

About IBM Watson Trend IBM Watson Trend expands on the previous IBM Benchmark reporting, the industry’s gosource for real-time online shopper insights and predictions for a decade. Research is based on aggregated and anonymous data from retail web sites around the globe, anonline sessions and transactions a day. IBM Watson cognitive computing analyzes the meaning of natural language from more than 10,000 sources reviews and ratings to add insights on what products are treCombining this trend intelligence with our digital analytics creates the industry’s only instant access to shopper insights and foresights about the what, why, and how of holiday shopping.

For More Information

For additional reports and trends in online retail, visit the IBM Watson Trend Hub at www.ibm.com/watsontrendhub

@IBMCommerce #WatsonTrend  

 

   

 

 

IBM Watson Trend

IBM Watson Trend expands on the previous IBM Benchmark reporting, the industry’s gotime online shopper insights and predictions for a decade. Research is based on

aggregated and anonymous data from retail web sites around the globe, anonline sessions and transactions a day. IBM Watson cognitive computing analyzes the meaning of natural language from more than 10,000 sources – including social media, blogs, reviews and ratings to add insights on what products are trending and why they are happening. Combining this trend intelligence with our digital analytics creates the industry’s only instant access to shopper insights and foresights about the what, why, and how of holiday shopping.

For additional reports and trends in online retail, visit the IBM Watson Trend Hub at www.ibm.com/watsontrendhub

 

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IBM Watson Trend expands on the previous IBM Benchmark reporting, the industry’s go-to time online shopper insights and predictions for a decade. Research is based on

aggregated and anonymous data from retail web sites around the globe, analyzing millions of online sessions and transactions a day. IBM Watson cognitive computing analyzes the

including social media, blogs, nding and why they are happening.

Combining this trend intelligence with our digital analytics creates the industry’s only instant access to shopper insights and foresights about the what, why, and how of holiday shopping.

For additional reports and trends in online retail, visit the IBM Watson Trend Hub at

Page 10: Holiday - IBM THINK Marketing

Black Friday Report 2015

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2015

IBM Corporation Software Group Route 100 Somers, NY 10589

Produced in the United States of AmericaNovember 2015

IBM, the IBM logo, ibm.com and Smarter Commerce are trademarks of International Business Machines Corp., registered in many jurisdictions and service names might be trademarks companies. A current list of IBM trademarks is the Web at “Copyright and trademark information” at www.ibm.com/legal/copytrade.shtml

This document is current as ofpublication and may be changed by IBM at any time. Not all offerings are available in every country in which IBM operates.

THE INFORMATION IN THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED “AS IS” WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND ANY WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF NON-INFRINGEMENT. IBM products according to the terms and conditions of the agreements under which they are provided.

10

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2015

Produced in the United States of America

IBM, the IBM logo, ibm.com and Smarter Commerce are of International Business Machines Corp.,

registered in many jurisdictions worldwide. Other product and service names might be trademarks of IBM or other companies. A current list of IBM trademarks is available on the Web at “Copyright and trademark information” at

legal/copytrade.shtml.

This document is current as of the initial date of and may be changed by IBM at any time. Not all

available in every country in which IBM

THE INFORMATION IN THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED “AS IS” WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING WITHOUT ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND ANY WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF

INFRINGEMENT. IBM products are warranted ing to the terms and conditions of the agreements

they are provided.