The Economic Impact of

Cycling InvestmentsProviding rational arguments for policy-makers

Holger Haubold

Veloforum L’viv, 11 October 2014

ECF gratefully acknowledges financialsupport from the European Commission.

European Cyclists’ Federation

• Over 70 members in 40

countries

• Velo-city conference

• Global networks:

Scientists for Cycling, Cities for

Cyclists, Cycling Industry Club,

World Cycling Alliance

• 2020: Double cycling in Europe

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Job creation: numbers at national level

• Germany:

– ZIV/VSF: 4,000 employees in bike + parts manufacturing; 30,000 in trade, 7,000 in infrastructure

– Federal Ministry of the Economy (2009): 186,000 employees in cycle tourism

– Taken up in National Cycling Master Plan: „The promotion of cycling therefore also supports growth and employment in small and medium-sized enterprises.“

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benefits for local

economies

• United Kingdom:

– Gross Cycle Product Report: 900 employees

in manufacturing; 20,000 in trade, 2,515 in

infrastructure

– Ian Austin MP, vice-chairman of the all

party parliamentary cycling group:

“This important report shows that

encouraging greater participation in

cycling can bring not only social but

economic benefits for Britain."

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Job creation: numbers at national level

Job creation: numbers at European

level• WHO Regional Office for Europe, 2014: ca.

77,000 additional jobs in urban areas

– only for one major city per country

– rough estimates, using data from Copenhagen for all cities

– Only wholesale and retail trade + companies designing and selling bikes

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Currently, there is no comprehensive

study on jobs in the cycling sector at

European levelECF project: study on job creation in the

European cycling economy (Dec 2014)

Cost-Benefit Analysis: „Traditional“

Advocacy

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Cost-Benefit Analysis: HEAT tool

(WHO)• estimating the value of reduced mortality

resulting from specified amounts of cycling

• www.heatwalkingcycling.org

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Cost-Benefit Analysis: HEAT tool

(WHO)• Assumptions:

– Regular commuter cycling: default value100 minutes per week (average for the whole year)

– Relative risk for cyclists: 0.90 ( 10% less likely to die from any cause than non-cyclists)

– Value of a statistical life: € 3.371 million (EU, adjustable per country)

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Cost-Benefit Analysis: HEAT tool

(WHO)• Example:

– Local cycling infrastructure investment:Cost €100,000

– Cyclists before intervention: 5,000

– Cyclists after intervention: 5,500

– 50% genuinely new cyclists (others have switched from other routes etc.)

– Discount rate for future benefits: 5%

Over 10 years:

Health benefits according to HEAT: € 966,000

Cost-benefit ratio: 1:9.66

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Cost-Benefit Analysis: HEAT tool

(WHO)• Examples for use:

– France: Report on cycling

reimbursement (11/2013)

– Austria: National Cycling Master Plan

recommends to include HEAT in

guidelines for CBA for transport

investments

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Cost-Benefit Calculator for Cycling

Investments (Fietsberaad/Decisio, NL)

• English explanation:

http://herberttiemens.wordpress.com/2014/03/04/

online-cost-benefit-calculator/

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Cost-Benefit Calculator for Cycling

Investments (Fietsberaad/Decisio, NL)

• For indivual projects

• Including a range of direct/indirect costs/benefits

• Takes also into account externalities (noise, emissions)

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Costs Direct Effects Indirect Effects Externalitie

s

Initial

investment

Travel time reduction

cyclists

Health benefits Emissions

Maintenance Travel time reduction

and reliability car traffic

Productivity (less

job absence)

Noise

Subsidies public

transport

Road Safety

Tax revenues

from fuel taxes

Cost-Benefit Calculator for Cycling

Investments• Example 1: Cycling kilometer compared to car and

bus kilometers (densely populated urban area)

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Cycling replacing car Cycling replacing bus

Network effects

(congestion)

€ 0.330 € 0.000

Work productivity € 0.046 € 0.046

Life expectancy € 0.025 € 0.025

Public budgets

(taxes/subsidies)

€ -0.030 € 0.387

Total indirect effects € 0.041 € 0.458

Emissions € 0.030 € 0.029

Noise € 0.010 € 0.016

Road safety € -0.001 € 0.010

Total externalities € 0.039 € 0.055

Total benefits € 0.411 € 0.513

Cost-Benefit Calculator for Cycling

Investments• Example 2: Cycle bridge (medium

scenario)

• Costs:

– Investment: € 21.5 million

– Maintenance: € 2.5 million

– Total: € 23.9 million

• Direct benefits:

– Travel time gained cyclists: € 29.1 million

– Travel time gained car traffic: € 5.4 million

– Travel time reduction existing cycle traffic: € 1.8 million

– Total: € 36.3 million

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Cost-Benefit Calculator for Cycling

Investments• Example 2: Cycle bridge (medium scenario)

• Indirect effects:– Work productivity: € -0.8 million

– Life expectancy: € -0.3 million

– Fuel taxes: € -0.3 million

– Subsidies public transport: € 0.7 million

– Total: € -0.7 million

• Externalities:– Emissions: € 0.4 million

– Noise: € 0.2 million

– Road Safety: € 2.4 million

– Total: € 2.9 million

• Total benefits: € 38.5 million

• Balance: € 14.6 million

• Cost- benefit ratio: 1:1.7

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Transport Emissions Evaluation

Model (TEEMP) Tool• Evaluating the impact of transport projects on

emissions of CO2 and air pollutants (particulate matter, NOx) (no monetary evalution)

• Cycling: bike share systems, bikeways

• http://cleanairinitiative.org/portal/TEEMPTool

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Thank you for your attention !

For more information

h.haubold@ecf.com @HolgerECF

www.ecf.com @EuCyclistsFed