history, stories, and amplification mechanisms fin254f: spring 2010 lecture notes 2.5 readings:...
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History, Stories, and Amplification Mechanisms
Fin254f: Spring 2010Lecture notes 2.5
Readings: Shiller 3-7
What is this Section About?
Shiller's qualitative takes on financial bubbles
How do they get started?What makes them really take off?
What mechanisms contribute?
Outline
Precipitating factors in the late 20th century
Amplification mechanismsThe mediaNew era thinking
Precipitating FactorsMostly in the 80's and
90'sCapitalist explosionCultural changes toward businessNew information technologiesSupportive monetary policyThe baby boom and bustBusiness news reportingAnalysts optimism
Precipitating FactorsMostly in the 80's and
90'sInstitutional investment changes Defined contribution pensions (mutual funds)
Hedge fundsLow inflationHigh frequency tradingGambling opportunities
Capitalist Explosion and Ownership Society
Increase in market organized economies
Labor union declines (1983: 20.1% - 2000:13.5%)
Employee stock option plans Greater fixation on stock prices
Cultural Changes Favoring Business
More materialistic measures of worth
Cuts in tax ratesGreater acceptance of large salaries
(Is this all changing?)
New Information Technology
Cell phones (1982) Internet (military -> academic -> everyone)
Earnings growth: 1994 +36%, 8 in 1995, and 10 in 1996
Probably not internet How much should a new technology effect existing firms?
Remember, what matters is public perception
Monetary Policy and the Greenspan Put
No moves to tighten monetary policy in the 90's Interesting given irrational exuberance speech
Several events where liquidity provided (LTCM, Y2K)
Also, did the Fed lower rates too much in 2003?
Baby Boom and Baby Bust
Baby boomers save and drive up stock market Saving bulge : demographic Generation forgets depression
Problems: What about when and how they sell?
What about global demographics?www.hsdent.com
Expansion of Media Coverage
CNBC, CNNfn, Bloomberg TVBusiness news gets "glitzier"Stock tip shows (Cramer)
Analyst Forecasts
Overly optimistic (in 1999 only 1% sell)
Analyst problems Employed by investment banks (underwriting)
Might lose info contacts at firms they rate negatively
Employed by brokers : interest in volume
Some regulatory reform around 2000
Expansion of Defined Contribution Pension
Plans Defined Benefit versus Defined Contribution
Less costly to firms Better for mobile workers Generates more public attention to stocks
How well do people diversity? Bernartzi/Thaler on what people do Equal weight in stock and bond funds and in stock and stock/bond funds
Growth of Mutual Funds
1982: 340, 1998: 3513More equity mutual funds than stocks on NYSE
Start in 1920'sPublic perception rises and falls
Part of 401K investmentsCurrently seem ok, and draws more attention to markets
Decline of Inflation
Lower inflation -> Public confidence
Money illusion Most price series reported in nominal terms
Reporters think inflation too complicated and no one cares
Makes a big difference, two examples U.S. stocks in the 1970's Long term home price series
Online Trading
Etrade and daytrading (internet) Turnover rates double between 82-99
Lower transactions costsDoes this impact a bubble?
Gambling Opportunities
Rise of state lotteriesIncrease in casinosChanges attitudes toward riskCan this spill into the stock market?
Amplification Mechanisms
ConfidenceFeedback
Shiller Surveys
"The stock market is the best investment for long-term holders, who can just buy and hold through the ups and downs of the market."
2000: 97% at least somewhat agree
2004: 83%
Shiller: Real estate as Long Term Investment
See table
Forecasts of Returns: Dow
1989: 0%1996: 4.1%2000: 6.7%2001: 8.4%2004: 6.4%
Confidence Levels Again
See figure 4.1Fraction thinking market is over valued
Compare institutional and individual investors
How do People Process Data?
Recent and distant pastMemory
Feedback
Price -> Buy -> Price -> BuyPrice -> GDP -> Price -> GDPCan we model this?
More on Ponzi
Basic parts Plausible stories High returns Early success : start slow, ramp up
In stocks Story: exaggerated, but not a lie Early price manipulation Draw in crowd
Real Estate and the Stock Market
Stock market "Had no effect on my decision to buy a house" : 72% in 2003-4
News Media
Record overload Superlatives (record everyday)
Stock market moves and big news Tag along news
News tags along as an "explanation" for price moves
Crashes of 29 and 87 New media outlets and rumors
Internet sites
29 in Press
Crash of 29: October 28-29 NYT(29 AM): "general loss of confidence" WSJ(29 AM): "necessitous liquidation of impaired accounts"
President Hoover develops inland waterways
Some news on Smoot-Hawley tariffs, but could that be so big?
Black Thursday, October 24, 1929 Market falls by 12.9%, but then recovers
No real big stories
October 28th/29th 1929
-12.3% and –11.3%
“general loss of confidence in the market and the inability of any man or group to stem
such a torrent of selling.”
October 19, 1987 in the Press
Shiller survey 10 news stories Most important: story about past price declines
Higher than expected trade deficit, possible tax changes
Fires off computerized sell programs (negative feedback)
October 19, 1987
-20.5%
“Worry over dollar and trade deficit”
Feedback Again
Leverage Price falls Borrowed fraction increases Sell off some (deleverage) -> price falls
Short selling Price rise Value of "borrowed" stock increases Need to buy some back to reduce borrowing - > price rise
New Eras
“New economy” 1901
Trains, electricity, new century 1920’s
Electricity, mass production, prohibition Irving Fisher
50’s and 60’s Baby boom, computers, credit cards, macroeconomic policy
New Eras
90’s Globalization Technology Low inflation (macro policy again)
Profits Productivity
Global New Eras
Largest 1 year stock market increases See table 7.1 See also subsequent year patterns
Largest 1 year decreases See table 7.2
Largest 5 year increases See table 7.3
Stories
Philippines: Dec85-86: +683%, Marcos regime collapses. Aquino takes over. Avoids messy civil war.
Taiwan: Oct86-87, +400%, booming exports, double digit growth, shifting to high tech goods, P/E ratios to 45, gambling frenzy, eventually declines by 79% (89-90)
More Stories
Venezuela: 90-91 +384%, recovering economy, oil market uncertainty (Gulf War I), eventually prices fall by 82%
India: April 91-92, +155%, begins large scale deregulation, opens to foreign investment, some price manipulation maybe, falls by -50% next year
Reversals
Do most stock increases reverse?If true, big deviation from random walk.
68% of 5 year winners see price decline in next 5 years
80% of 5 year losers see price increase in next 5 years
Outline
Precipitating factors in the late 20th century
Amplification mechanismsThe mediaNew era thinking
Summary
StoriesAmplifications mechanisms
Price feedback News
Global info Stock market increases (bubbles) common
Most reverse