hiroshi komiyama
TRANSCRIPT
Hiroshi Komiyama Chairman of the Institute, Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., Japan
President emeritus, University of Tokyo
TBLI CONFERENCETM ASIA2011 15 September 2011
The Revitalization for Japan
- The Platinum society -
Saturation of artifacts is the key concept
No. of automobiles
( million )
No. of automobiles per population
Japan 58 0.45USA 138 0.45Britain 31 0.51France 31 0.50Germany 41 0.49China 32 0.02India 13 0.01
Source : Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
Number of automobile ownership ( 2007 )
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
[ton/
]一
人当
たり
セメ
ント
生産
量人
J apanChinaUSAFrance
Saturation will come in 2 ~ 10 years in China Production of cement per person
Pro
du
ctio
n o
f C
emen
t p
er p
erso
n [
ton
]
Source : Production of Cement : UN Statistical year book
Population : UNSD Demographic Statistics
Automobile energy consumption to 1/10 at 2050
Vehicle Weight [kg]Data Source: Yahoo! Japan Autos
Fu
el C
onsu
mp
tion
[L
/km
]
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
US/European CarsJapanese Cars
Hybrid Cars
Electric & Fuel cells Cars
Energy efficiency is secondly important!
1960 1970 1980 1990Year
USDenmarkBelgiumFranceSweden
Source: Japan Cement Association
Japan
Ener
gy C
onsu
mpti
on p
er to
n
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
6,000(MJ/t)
theoretical value
Technology transfer can reduce emission
Cement
Investment for energy efficiency can be refunded!
Energy efficiency improvement by 3 times is feasible.
Energy Scenario and CO2
a) 19906.0G C-ton
1.5G
b) 2050 BAU case
c) Vision 2050
d) After 22nd Century
1.5G
22.0G C-ton
3.0G
Fossil resources
Non- Fossil resources
Data: from “Vision 2050”
CO2 369 ppm
CO2 600 ppm
CO2 460 ppm
CO2 280 ppm
4.5G C-ton
22nd century will be bright!
ManufacturingDaily life
Home
Transportation
Office
ⒸHiroshi Komiyama
Energy consumption by final use in Japan
Theoretical limit of transportation is zero!
Energy consumption in houses and offices
エネルギー・経済統計要覧 2009年版より
Air-conditioner 28%
Water heating 30%
others 24%
kitchen 8%
lighting 10%
Offices 50%: air-conditioner20%: lighting
Theoretical limit of air-conditioning is zero!
Houses
Water Heater
Heat-pump (Ecocute)50%×4=200%
Fuel cell (Enefarm) 45% elec. + 40% hot water
Technology innovation in Japan
Komiyama ecohouse : using existing technologies!
81% reductionInvestment refunded in 12 years
Solar panel : 3.6 k W
Heat-pump water heater
Insulation : K=1.6 W/m2K
New air-conditioner
Ⓒ 小宮山 宏
Hybrid car : 22.6km/l
New refrigerator & lightings
ENERGY 70%
FOOD 70%
WOOD 100%
Self-Sufficiency in Japan at 2050
ⒸHiroshi Komiyama
WATER 100%
Komiyama’s Proposal
Japanese goal as well as 21st model of humanity
MINERAL 70%
present
東京屋形船案内http://www.t-yakata.com/tyh_dkship.htm
1967
環境省 図で見る環境白書 昭和57年http://www.env.go.jp/policy/hakusyo/zu/eav11/eav110000000000.html
Japan’s experience with Sumida river
Japan’s experience with Kitakyusyu
Source : Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world P27
0.2
4.9
3.4
0.8
3.1
0.7
1.4
3.3
0.2
0.6
3.2
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.6
4.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
日本
中国
カナダ
イタリア
フランス
ドイツ
イギリス
アメリカ
SOx NOx g/ W ]発電量あたりの ・ 発生量[ k h
NOxSOx
Source:http://www.tepco.co.jp/eco/report/lcl/01_2-j.html
http://www.braincoal.info/news_images/20100206ccs_yamada.pdf
Japan :2008
China :2000
Others :2005
Emission of Sulfur and Nitrogen from Thermal Power Plants
SOx , NOx [ g/kW h]
U.S.
U.K.
Germany
France
Italy
Canada
Japan
China
Shrinking earth
Aging society
Eco houseEco applianceEco carSolar panelWind mill
Barrier free building Health monitoringSafe mobility Senses supporting
Green & silver & golden growth
Exploding knowledge
Structuring knowledgeStructured knowledge- baseEducationLifelong learningValue creation
ⒸHiroshi Komiyama
ecological
participation by all including seniors lifelong learning
abundant in job opportunities
sustainable societycreated by green, silver, gold and various innovations
Platinum society is a vision of the 21st century
Platinum Network As of 2011,2/28
Tokyo wards
Governor joinsMayor joins
ⒸHiroshi Komiyama
Join in the quest for a platinum society
ⒸHiroshi Komiyama
Thank you