hirlam regional 3d-var and mesan down- scaling re …hirlam regional 3d-var and mesan down-scaling...
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HIRLAM Regional 3D-VAR and MESAN down-
scaling re-analysis for the recent
20 year period in the FP7 EURO4M project
Per Undén, Tomas Landelius
Per Dahlgren, Per Kållberg
Stefan Gollvik, Sébastien Villaume
SMHI
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SMHI EURO4M: 3D/2D reanalysis & validation
3D: HIRLAM
- ERA on the borders and as a large scale constraint
- 60 vertical levels
- 22 km horizontal resolution
ERA Interim 2D: MESAN
- HIRLAM as first guess
- Surface parameters
- 5 km grid78 km
ECMWF
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3
HIRLAM analysis and model configuration
6h cycling: analysis at 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC
+48h forecasts every cycle, output +3,6,9,12,18,24,30,36,42,48h
Lateral boundaries: ERA-Interim analyses every 6:th hour
Each cycle: surface analysis, 3DVAR upper air analysis, forecast
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4
Surface analysis
SST and sea ice: interpolated from ERA-Interim
T2m, RH2m and snow depth: OI analysis with SYNOP observations
Albedo and snow corrected in Sahara and Greenland
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Upper air analysis
● 3D-VAR● Observations: SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, TEMP, PILOT, AIRCRAFT● FGAT – First Guess at Appropriate Time
12 13 14 15111009 time
Forecast length+3h +4h +5h +6h +7h +8h +9h
Observations valid at 09UTC are compared to the +3h forecast from the previous cycle, and so on.
Large scale Era-Interim vorticity assimilated with Jk:
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HIRLAM 3D-VAR Reanalysis so far:
HIRLAM 3D-VAR run and data for
– 1989 - 2002 archived in MARS at NSC(.liu.se)
– 2007-01-01 - 2010-12-31
Monitoring and evaluation: Data extracted and evaluated by DWD (cloud, precip, rad,
albedo, PWC). Also precipitation to Meteo-Swiss.
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HIRLAM GRIB fields
HIRLAM EURO4M parameters, More than 843 fields (of which 150 are diagnostic):
Upper air parameters on 60 levels 33 109 60 U-component of Wind 34 109 60 V-component of Wind 11 109 60 Temperature 51 109 60 Specific Humidity 76 109 60 Cloud Water 71 109 60 Total Cloud Cover 200 109 60 Turbulent Kinetic Energy 58 109 60 Cloud ice
10 m parameters 33 105 10 U-component of Wind
34 105 10 V-component of Wind
2 m parameters 11 105 2 Temperature 51 105 2 Specific Humidity 140 105 2 2m Temperature over
land 141 105 2 2m Spec Hum 2m over
land
Soil parameters – 2D fields Mean sea level pressure,accumulated precip, radiation fluxes e.g. Many diagnostic quantities
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Step
s
Le
vels
Parameters
MARS
retrieve, class=re, model=hirlam, stream=da, expver=e4mh, levelist=0, levtype=105, type=fc, param=${PAR}.1, date=${date}, time=${HH}, step=24,
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Validation
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ggj
increments 1994-1996 January 00Z increments 1994-1996 January 12Z
diff to ERA-Interim 1994-1996 January 00Z diff to ERA-Interim 1994-1996 January 12Z
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Annual cycle
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HIRLAM total precipitation Nov 1996
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ERA-Interim interpolated total precipitation Nov 199678 km
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2D analysisUni/bi-variateOptimum Interpolation
MESAN
3D analysis Multivariate
HIRLAM 3D-VAR
An-istoropic correlations
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Downscaling temperature
Vertical and horizontalinterpolation considering differences in orography, fraction of land and distance.
Effect of anisotropic structure function.
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3D reanalysis 2D reanalysis
Available t2m observations
More observations needed for the 2D case!
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Added detail; downscaling & analysis (t2m)
HIRLAM 22 km Downscaled to 5 km MESAN 5 km
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Downscaling precipitation
Bii= f(lat, oro, div, frland)
Analysis in terms of % of hi-res climatology.Use first guess error field to simulate this.
Annual precip divided by daily std – isotropic.
Effect of normalization with the fg error.
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MESAN analysis of daily precipitation (10 yrs)
HIRLAM 22 km MESAN 5 km
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MESAN observation files merged and prepared
MESAN 24h precipitation analysis – ongoing
MESAN t2m, rh2m, uv10m downscaling and analysis - ongoing
Cooperation with MF on next gen MESAN/CANARI in EURO4M
Replace OI with EnsVar in future MESCAN?
Liu et al (2009): “An Ensemble-Based Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Scheme. Part II”, MWR vol 137, p 1687-1704:- Efficient implementation of localization shur(C,B).- Dimension of control vector: N_ens * N_eof (C)
MESAN Status and plans
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UERRA Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Reanalyses
● 4 year FP7 project extending in many directions:
● Ensemble assimilation and uncertainties
● Multiple re-analyses
● Uncertainty estimates unified methodology against several data sets
● High resolution (11-12 km and 5 km for 2D-reanalysis)
● 50 year time periods (30 for ensemble)
● Data services
● Outreach and user interaction