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www.tyndall.ac.uk
Highlighting research and communication at the UK's Tyndall Centre
2003
Cyclones shift seasons
Warm to cool buildings
Making research useful to users
Biodiversity and climate change
Defining dangerous climate change
Internationally fair adaptation policies
Decision making for the futurecoastline
Storing hydrogen for power andtransport
Climate change researchfor the 21st Century
The Tyndall Centre for Climate ChangeResearch is a novel organisationfounded in September 2000 by the UK’sResearch Councils. The Tyndall Centreintegrates the UK’s expertise fromtraditionally separate disciplines into asingle unified body that represents theUK’s mass of academic expertise inclimate change research.
The Tyndall Centre’s philosophy ofintegration is represented throughout itsresearch, which brings together
climatologists, social scientists,economists, biologists, policy analysts,engineers, businesses and industry fromacross the nation, and increasingly thecontinent and the world. With nineleading Universities at the core of theTyndall Centre in 2000, it has nowgrown to 25 research centres and 150researchers.
Named after John Tyndall, thediscoverer of the greenhouse effect andsuccessor of Michael Faraday as
Director of the Royal Institution of GreatBritain, the Tyndall Centre aims to beacademically strong, socially relevant,and an outstanding sciencecommunicator.
We are always pleased to respond tosuggestions for initiatives the TyndallCentre should take; please contactAsher Minns (the CommunicationManager) with your [email protected]
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John Tyndall, Victorian discoverer of thegreenhouse effect and Director of the
Royal Institution of Great Britain, featuredin Vanity Fair 1872, Men of the Day, No.43
© Royal Institution / Bridgeman Art Library
The year in reviewWhat effect has the Tyndall Centre hadover the last year on what we knowabout climate change and on whatscience, policymakers and the public aredoing about it? What has the TyndallCentre discovered and what differencehave we made? This second issue ofthe effect, covering the year 2002-03, isdesigned to help you answer thesequestions by introducing a selection ofour work, our people and oursuccesses.
In addition to progressing world classclimate change research, the TyndallCentre is committed to widening anddeepening public debate about howsociety should respond to climatechange. We are working with a view toinform policy development at
international, national and local levels,and we have engaged with decision-makers and the climate policy process.For example, we have been considering‘Is international climate policy fair?’ Wehave proposed a framework foranalysing justice issues in climatechange, which was presented anddebated during the UN’s climate change conference in Delhi in October 2002. Asecond workshop took place as part ofthe Third International SustainabilityDays in September 2003.
Nationally, we have explored publicreactions to carbon capture and storageand how these perceptions areinfluenced by the provision ofinformation from different expert groups.This research has drawn considerableinterest from industry and Governmentwho recognise that the public responseto introducing this technology is crucial,yet realise that little is known.
At a local level, we have developed aprogramme of dialogues called ‘Re-designing the coast’, bringing togetherscientists, policy-makers, coastalplanners and the general public in adiscourse about managing sea level riseon the East Anglian coast.
This is only a small selection of our‘global to local’ activities over the past 12 months. The effect introduces you tosome more and our web site andworking papers - www.tyndall.ac.uk -provide a comprehensive account of ourwork.
Professor Mike HulmeExecutive DirectorAugust 2003
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A series of public meetings and workshops have introduced estimates of future sea level rise and their uncertainty, a range ofcoastal defence options, and evaluated the benefits of managed realignment for coastal defence and biodiversity. © M. Robinson
“In addition toprogressing world class
climate changeresearch, we are
widening and deepeningpublic debate”
The Tyndall Centrehas convened aseries of workshopsin Mexico, Brazil,Bolivia, Belize andthe UK to discusscriteria for forestcarbon managementprojects
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Losing Caribbean Corals
Coral reefs across the Caribbean havesuffered a phenomenal 80% decline intheir coral cover during the past threedecades, revealed new research fundedby the Tyndall Centre and published inAugust in the international researchjournal, Science.
The amount of reef covered by hardcorals, the main builders of reefframework, has decreased on averagefrom 50% to just 10% in the last 25years. Although the majority of the lossoccurred in the 1980s, there is noevidence that the rate of coral loss isslowing.
“This rate of decline exceeds by far thewell-publicised rates of loss for tropicalforests. The feeling among scientistsand tourists has long been thatCaribbean corals are declining, sincemany people have seen reefs degradeover the years. We are the first to put ahard figure on coral decline across theregion,” said Toby Gardner, who did theresearch for his MSc dissertation atUEA.
The causes of coral decline are thoughtto include natural factors, such ashurricanes and disease, and man-madefactors, like over-fishing, pollution, andsedimentation that smothers the coral.
The consequences of disappearing coralrange from the collapse of fisheries, todwindling tourism and increased coastaldamage sustained during hurricanes.
“The good news is that there are someareas in the Caribbean that appear to berecovering, although the newcommunities are different to the oldones. We don’t know how well they willcope with the challenges of rising sealevels and temperatures that result fromglobal warming,” said Jenny Gill, ofTyndall’s coastal research team.
Further information: Dr Jenny [email protected]
Research funded by the TyndallCentre and published in the
international research journal,Science, shows that coral reefs
across the Caribbean have suffereda phenomenal 80% decline in their
coral cover
© Karen Cheney
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Cyclones shift seasonsWindstorms are likely to become morecommon in autumn and less common inwinter, and southeast England shouldsee an increase in cyclones, accordingto a Tyndall Centre analysis of stormactivity that examined the impacts ofclimate change and windstorm damageon the UK’s insurance and forestryindustries.
Autumn storms are thought to causemore damage because leafed treespresent more surface area to high windsthan bare winter trees.
“We have detected these seasonal shiftsbut we do not expect a shift towardsmore extreme cyclones or a shift in thecyclone tracks for the UK,” say ClairHanson and Jean Palutikof at theClimatic Research Unit at the Universityof East Anglia. However, most climate
models predict an increase andintensification of storm activity overcontinental Europe.
Clair and Jean have carried outextensive analysis of cyclone conditionsover the North Atlantic and the UK, andhave tested their models by comparingpredictions against the seasonality,intensity, size and path of historicalcyclones.
Industry partners in the project includethe Forestry Commission, Royal-SunAlliance, and CGNU insurers. The UKstorm in 1987 destroyed the equivalentof two years of deciduous timberproduction, and the storms at the end of1999 destroyed 10% of French forests.
Further information: Dr Clair Hansonc.hanson@uea
Windstorms are likely to become more common in autumnand less common in winter, and southeast England shouldsee an increase in cyclones, says a Tyndall Centre analysis
© Still Pictures / Nigel Dickinson
Research that’s useful to usersClimate change research clearly needsto better match the information needs ofits users, say Alex Haxeltine and JohnTurnpenny at Tyndall HQ. They askedleading people from public, private andNGO organisations what it is that theywant to know about climate change toenhance the usability and direction ofTyndall’s research.
“Our results demonstrate themainstreaming of climate change by anextremely diverse range oforganisations. Each organisation has aunique research need to aid theirdecision-making,” said John. “Someorganisations need more treatment ofsocial and economic aspects; othersneed a clearer expression of thestatistical uncertainty of research results.Information always has to be transparentand well communicated.”
Their answer to the diversity ofinformation needs is the concept of‘strategic guidance’ which aims to usedifferent research tools specificallyassembled for each question andorganisation. Research tools includecomputer models, scenarios, expertjudgement, and visual images ofscenarios and futures.
These initial results have informed thedesign of two new case studies that willtest and apply strategic guidance to aninnovative methodology calledIntegrated Assessment. IntegratedAssessment aims to connect the manydifferent types of data - social,economic, engineering, climatic - thatare needed to inform climate changedecisions. The Tyndall Centre is at theforefront of integrated assessmentresearch.
One case study will work with UKgovernment for guidance on thedialogue around international climatepolicy; the second will develop userguidance for an integrated assessmentfor Eastern England.
Further information: Dr Alex [email protected] and TyndallWorking Paper 31
“southeast England could see anincrease in cyclones, accordingto a Tyndall Centre analysis”
Internationally fairadaptation policiesAt its starkest, those facing the greatestimpact of climate change are leastresponsible. Who is likely to benefit andwho will lose from decisions on adaptingto climate change? And, crucially, whomakes the decisions? Adaptation toclimate change presents formidabledilemmas to the internationalcommunity, but the potential injusticeand inequity is not well understood.
Justice in adaptation to climate changewas explored at a Tyndall Centreconference as part of the ThirdInternational Sustainability Days inSeptember 2003. The workshop wasorganised jointly by the Tyndall Centre,the Centre for Social and EconomicResearch on the Global Environment(CSERGE), the Foundation for
International Law and Development(FIELD) and the International Institute forEnvironment and Development (IIED).
“How vulnerable communities can bestadapt to changing climate is both apractical and a moral issue for theinternational community,” said NeilAdger, leading the Tyndall team onadaptation. “Creating fair processesand fair institutions is a vital part ofseeking sustainable adaptationsolutions,” he said.
The research team have documentedplanning, insurance and everydayfarming decisions in Asia, Africa, andEurope to assess common rules forfairness in adaptation. “The governmentof Samoa in the Pacific use traditional
village councils to plan for climatechange. This is adaptation in action,”says MJ Mace from FIELD.
The conference brought together fortyleading researchers from across theworld to learn lessons for adaptation.With over fifty countries worldwide nowdeveloping national plans for adaptation,the conference made a timely input intoseeking to make plans acceptable andsustainable.
Further information: Dr. Neil [email protected] [email protected] www.field.org.uk
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The Tyndall Centre and the Foundation for InternationalEnvironmental Law and Development (FIELD) have been
holding a series of international workshops to explorefairness in policies for climate change adaptation
© Still Pictures / G. Griffiths – Christian Aid
“Creating fair processes and fair institutions is a vitalpart of seeking sustainable adaptation solutions,”
Computer capability prototyped
The Tyndall Centre has successfullyprototyped their first computer networkthat performs complex integratedassessments of traditionally disparatedata modules. The prototype system isunique in connecting global economic,emissions, climate and impact dataacross a distributed network. The data modules are written bydifferent authors at different researchinstitutions and have been linked
together by the Centre for NovelComputing (CNC) at the University ofManchester. It is based upon newsoftware that harnesses the power of anetwork of computers to run distributedsimulations of integrated climate changescenarios.
“We have demonstrated for the first timethat we can link data from differentdisciplines to deliver rigorous resultsusing pioneering information technology.We have tested our system against casestudies and shown the model output tobe valid,” said Rachel Warren who leadsthe project.
The prototype has linked a piloteconomics model from Tyndall’sETECH+ project, an emission module, aclimate module from the University ofEast Anglia, and a climate impacts tool
from the Potsdam Institute in Germany.The system is also connected to adownscaler to make the climate outputregionally applicable.
“As other modules become compatible,this system will become a lot moresophisticated,” says Rachel.
The next step is to demonstrate that theintegrated assessment can be run ondifferent computers in multiple locations,to allow different modules to be run atseparate institutions. The system willultimately support an emergingEuropean virtual organisation thatcollaborates on complex integratedassessments.
Further information: Dr Rachel [email protected]
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The Tyndall Centre has successfully prototyped the first computer network thatperforms complex integrated assessments of traditionally disparate climatechange research data. © M. Robinson
The response of business to climatechange will primarily be influenced bythe perceived losses and gain incompetitiveness, says Mercedes Bledaat the Institute of Innovation Research atUMIST and the University of Manchester.As innovative and adaptive capabilitiesincrease, so does a firm’s long-termcompetitiveness, driven by an increasein profit and its market share. Theseideas are being tested in a survey withmembers of the business community.
Mercedes, in partnership withcolleagues from Tyndall North andGKSS in Germany, is developing acomputer simulation of perception andresponses to climate change. Theirmodel integrates the perceptions ofclimate change by the public, business,government and the media to represent‘belief clusters’ that share influentialideas, knowledge claims and beliefs.
Dennis Bray at GKSS leads the project’spublic perception work, which is relatinga belief in climate change to weatherevents and anomalies. “Personalexperience has greater influence to theindividual than reports made in themedia,” says Dennis. “And it isimportant to distinguish between theconcepts of global warming and climatechange when scientists frame the issue.
It is also interesting to see how people’sbeliefs in climate change collapse morerapidly than they increase.”
“Weather events and anomalies need tobe defined quite precisely in theirmagnitude, frequency and distribution ifthe public is to interpret climate changeas intended by the expert,” hecomments.
A government simulation is alsounderway. This project will ultimately belinked with a climate model that willintegrate physical-world and sociologicalunderstanding.
Further information: Dr Mercedes [email protected]; Dr DennisBray [email protected]; Dr Simon [email protected].
Tyndall North and GKSS in Germany are developing acomputer simulation of perception and responses toclimate change by public, business, government and themedia
© Courtesy of IISD / Leila Mead
Beliefs about climate change
Managing biodiversity forglobal climate change
Ecologistsand conservationistsfrom around the worlddiscussed their observationsand predictions about wildlifeand climate change at a keyinternational conference held in Aprilat Tyndall Centre HQ. Global climatechange and biodiversity was organisedby the Tyndall Centre in partnership withthe RSPB, English Nature, World WildlifeFund and the World ConservationMonitoring Centre. The aim was toevaluate current research and define thenext steps for wildlife scientists andconservation policy makers.
Including researchers from China,Australia, South Africa and Iceland,delegates’ interests and expertisespanned from the Antarctic Ocean totropical forests and from microscopicphytoplankton to large mammals.
The emerging importance of managinglandscapes to allow species and
ecosystems to adapt to a changingclimate was a central theme. It wasagreed that there will be wildlife winnersand losers in the future as averagetemperatures increase. Losers arealready at the edge of their climaterange and have nowhere to move astemperatures warm. Other species,such as some butterflies andMediterranean birds, are adapted tohigher average temperatures and areincreasing their range. It emerged that amuch under researched area is theimpact of climate change on marineecosystems.
In discussingdangerous thresholds of climate changefor biodiversity, some delegates felt thatmany ecosystems could cope with aglobal warming of up to two degreescentigrade but that significant andcatastrophic losses could be expectedat higher global temperatures. Therewas also discussion about theconservation sector becoming politicallyactive in pressuring governments toreduce carbon dioxide emissions.
Further information: Professor AndrewWatkinson [email protected] orwww.tyndall.ac.uk/biodiversityconf forthe full conference report
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Ecologists and conservationists from around the worlddiscussed wildlife and climate change at the Tyndall
Centre in partnership with the RSPB, English Nature,World Wildlife Fund and the World Conservation
Monitoring Centre
© Asher Minns / Tyndall Centre
“there will bewildlife winnersand losers as
averagetemperatures
increase”
Short-termforecastsinform long-term changeHow society responds now to seasonalclimate forecasts can tell us about itsfuture capacity for coping with climateimpacts, say Richard Washington fromOxford University and Tom Downingfrom the Stockholm EnvironmentInstitute. They are investigating thestatistical connection between short andlong-term climate predictions and howseasonal forecasts influence thebehaviour of farmers in southern Africa.
Seasonal forecasts have operated insouthern Africa for several years and arerelatively accurate. “If a farmer insouthern Africa uses a seasonal drought
forecast to select resistant crops, reducefertiliser applications, or increaseirrigation, then he is adapting toseasonal climate. Alternately, theforecast might not influence hisbehaviour at all,” says Richard. Farmers’adaptation to these seasonal forecastsmay be linked to their ability to deal withclimate change impacts on longertimescales.
“If you consider the timescales ofcarbon dioxide driven climate change inthe 2030s, 2050, and 2080s, then theprobable social responses over thosetimescales is enormous.” The science topredict seasonal climate several monthsin advance is well established, as is theinfrastructure to deliver the forecasts tofarmers. “We are testing the statisticalrelationship between seasonal variationand long-term climate change, as wellas the social response,” says Richard.Though talked about at the World Bank,the World Meteorological Organisationand the UK Government’s Department
for International Development, thisTyndall Centre project is the first specifictest using seasonal forecasts as astrategy for adaptation to long-termclimate change.
Further information:[email protected] [email protected]
Storing hydrogen for power and transportHydrogen storage presents a scientificchallenge for demonstrating thefeasibility of a hydrogen poweredeconomy. Dimos Tsakiris, a chemist atTyndall North, is investigating long-termhydrogen storage that has minimumtransportation costs.
“Efficient storage solutions are aprerequisite for the optimum use ofrenewable energy such as hydro, solar,wind or even nuclear power,” saysDimos.
One possible solution is the so-calledMTH cycle, named after the liquidorganic chemicals methylcyclohexane,toluene, and hydrogen. During the MTHcycle, surplus electricity generated insummer is used to produce hydrogen bythe electrolysis of water. Hydrogen andtoluene are then converted intomethylcyclohexane in what is called thehydrogenation step. Themethylcyclohexane is stored in tanksthat can easily be transported to wherethe hydrogen fuel is needed.
In winter when domestic powerdemands are high, the hydrogen isrecovered from the methylcyclohexane
by dehydrogenation and transformedinto heat or power. It can be combinedwith oxygen in a fuel cell, or burnt it inan engine or gas turbine. The leftovertoluene is then recycled for further use inthe next summer’s MTH cycle.
“To demonstrate the feasibility of a future hydrogen economy, seasonal storage of
electrical energy requires a satisfactorysolution. This might be one of them,”says Dimos.
Further information: Dimos Tsakirisd.tsakiris@[email protected]
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Tyndall research at Oxford University and the StockholmEnvironment Institute is testing the statistical relationshipbetween seasonal climate and long-term climate change,and the social response of southern African farmers toseasonal forecasts. © Emma Archer
Tyndall North is investigating technical challenges and policyimplications for a hydrogen-fuelled economy
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Warm to cool buildings
Air conditioning will be the easiest optionin new and existing buildings to providefuture summer comfort while therequirement for winter heating willreduce slightly, show preliminary findingsfrom Professor Geoff Levermore’s and
David Chow’s research at Tyndall Northand UMIST’s Centre for Civil andConstruction Engineering. These initialresults suggest that any decrease inwinter heating will not offset theelectricity for summer air conditioning.
Geoff is researching how new buildingsneed to be designed in a changingclimate. “Buildings being designed andbuilt now need to be adapted to thefuture climate as some buildings will lastfor 100 years. They need to be designedfor higher summer temperatures, moresunny days and increased humidity.”
The next part of their research will testthe effect of solar shading, changing thesize of window glazing, and increasingthermal mass to reduce the effects ofhigher summer temperatures. Theseresults, together with publication of thefuture weather data that underpins thisresearch, will help building engineershave useful climate data for theirdesigns. The climate data is beingpublished in collaboration with theChartered Institute of Building ServicesEngineers (CIBSE).
Further information: Professor GeoffLevermore [email protected]
Creating
40% Houses“At the current rate of renewal (20,000houses a year) it will take 1000 years ormore to replace Britain’s housing stock,so we need to revolutionise the energy
efficiency of our existing houses,”comments Graham Sinden of OxfordUniversity’s Environmental ChangeInstitute. A controversial solution,according to colleague Dr BrendaBoardman, would be to increase therate of demolition by 500% to 100,000houses each year, every year. This couldbe achieved by Government policy butis unlikely to be popular.
The Tyndall Centre’s 40% House projectis examining immediate actions todecrease household carbon dioxidepollution by 60% by 2050, a targetrecommended by the UK Government’sRoyal Commission on EnvironmentalPollution.
40% House is building the UnitedKingdom Domestic Carbon Model(UKDCM), an integrated model of theenergy profiles of the UK housing stock,to identify and transform the patterns ofenergy use. This will tackle thermalperformance, heating systems, lightsand individual appliances as well aspotential climate change impacts onenergy demand. “A full suite of policyand consumer changes are needed fora 40% House; it cannot be deliveredwith piecemeal strategies,” says BrendaBoardman.
Further information: Graham [email protected]
"Buildings being designed and built now need to beadapted to the climate in 100 years" says Professor GeoffLevermore at Tyndall North. He is generating futureweather data that will be used by building designers
© Asher Minns / Tyndall Centre
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Defining dangerousclimate change
The ultimate objective of the UN’sFramework Convention on ClimateChange is to prevent dangerous humaninterference with the climate system.But what is a dangerous level of climatechange? Over 160 contributionsdiscussed this central question in anonline forum convened by Tyndalldoctoral researcher Suraje Dessai.“Dangerous climate change has become
a topical issue in scientific and policycircles but clearly also concerns widerpublics,” said Suraje. “With the onlineforum I wanted to broaden the debateabout dangerous climate change tointerested lay people.”
Several participants to the debateargued that issues of danger are notrelevant to climate change, and thatbecause of the large uncertainties inclimate change, a definition would notbe useful. Others suggested that withoutan agreed hazardous level of climate
change, scientists cannot talk aboutrisk. A suggested alternative might be tostart looking at collective humanresponses to dangerous thresholds.
“The online debate at least highlighted the complexities in understanding and defining dangerous climate change,”said Suraje. “I argue that to make progress in understanding dangerous
climate change, and therefore developsustainable responses, science needs torecognise the central role played bypeople’s experiences and perceptions ofdanger.”
Some contributors thought that anultimate concentration target ofgreenhouse gases is essential formoving forward the international climatenegotiations, while others did not -believing it is the impacts of droughts,floods and hurricanes, drowning anddisaster that matter. One contributor
argued that climate change only matterswhen people do not have the option toadapt their responses, or when the price of adaptation is high.
Dangerous climate change could bedefined in terms of a physical measurewhere climate variability differs from what would normally be expected.Another contributor suggested an
assessment that presents the facts todecision-makers with the use of real-world impacts, agreed by consensus,starting at local risk and workingtowards global definitions of dangerousclimate change.
Further information: Suraje [email protected]. The full discussionis at www.tyndall.ac.uk/forum/messages/archive/dangerous.html Also see TyndallCentre Working Paper 28
Contributors from around the world asked in a Tyndall onlineforum: What is a dangerous level of climate change? Aprevious forum discussed the pros and cons of geologicalsequestering of carbon
“With the online forum I wanted to broaden the debateabout dangerous climate change to interested lay people”
Implicationsof EUemissionstradingThe European Union’s new EmissionsTrading Directive will come into force in2005, but what does it mean for existingUK policies? Tyndall researcher SteveSorrell from the Science and TechnologyPolicy Research Unit at the University ofSussex has been exploring the far-reaching implications of the EU scheme.
“The Directive is one of the most radicalenvironmental policies for many years,but it is incompatible with many aspectsof UK policy and the speed ofimplementation could create difficulties,”says Steve. The Directive will initiallycover electricity generators, oil refineriesand energy intensive industriesrepresenting 45% of EU carbon dioxideemissions.
The UK was an early starter on climatepolicy, having already established acomplex set of policy instruments,including the controversial ClimateChange Levy in April 2001 and the UKemissions trading scheme. The Levy ledmany companies to adopt complexnegotiated agreements, while othersvolunteered to participate in the UKscheme. Now these companies arefacing something completely different.
Steve says the EU scheme has turnedthe UK’s early start into a false start.“Many of the existing agreements couldbe abandoned in the next 18 months.”
Steve is now working with the UKGovernment’s Department ofEnvironment, Food and Rural Affairs(DEFRA) to develop rules for allocatingtradable carbon allowances. Theprocess is highly controversial as theallowances will ultimately be worthbillions of pounds.
“Despite the clashes, I think the EUscheme is in many respects welldesigned. It is a pragmatic compromisebetween economics and political reality,”says Steve. “Many people are only nowwaking up to the implications.”
Further information: Dr Steve [email protected]
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Steve Sorrell of the Social PolicyResearch Unit and the Tyndall Centre
has been exploring the far-reachingimplications of the EU’s soon-to-be
implemented Emissions TradingDirective
© Asher Minns / Tyndall Centre
First reactions to the Energy White Paper
Some of the first experts to comment onthe UK Government’s new Energy WhitePaper were Tyndall researchers KevinAnderson, Simon Shackley and JimWatson. They welcomed the principalmessage that a long term energystrategy is essential if the UK is toremain on a path to 60% cuts in carbondioxide emissions by 2050, and thestrong emphasis on energy efficiency as
a central tenet of reduction policies.They also endorsed the enthusiasticsupport of renewable energytechnologies.
The lack of detail in the White Paperwas, however, of some concern. Theabsence of a clear target for energyefficiency and the softening of a ‘hardtarget’ to an ‘aspiration’ for renewableenergy’s 20% contribution to electricitysupply by 2020 were clearlydisappointing.
The Tyndall researchers called for amore complete picture of the nation’scarbon emissions in setting reductiontargets. Now that the UK is no longer amanufacturing nation, many of its majorcommodities are produced abroad,which exports the UK’s carbon pollution,
which is then missed from the nation’semissions accounting.
They paid particular attention to theneed for joined-up thinking inGovernment, citing the planned-expansion in UK aviation. By 2030following the current path, 40% of UKgreenhouse gas emissions will be due toaviation alone.
The Tyndall researchers also call forregulatory standards in manufacturingfor maximum emissions and energy use.Industry would then be free to adopt ordevelop new technologies that meet thestandards, encouraging innovation.
Further information:[email protected] or seeTyndall Briefing Note 6 atwww.tyndall.ac.uk
In welcoming the principal message of the UK Government’snew Energy White Paper, researchers also called forintegrated policy making. By 2030, 40% of the UK’sgreenhouse gas emissions will be due to expansion plans foraviation
© Asher Minns
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Winning arguments with evidenceThe Tyndall Centre took part in severalSocial Science Week events in June,including Winning Arguments, organisedby the Economic and Social ResearchCouncil’s (ESRC) SustainableTechnologies Programme. Seniorresearchers presented and discussedtheir successes and failures at informinggovernment policy makers.
“The key insight to come from the eventis that influencing policymakers ispossible, however it is never quick or
painless,” says Frans Berkhout from theScience and Technology PolicyResearch Unit (SPRU) at the Universityof Sussex. “Researchers need to putmore effort into how they tell the storythat their research has uncovered. Theyneed to engage in dialogue, not simplytell policymakers the results of theirwork. And they need to build trust overthe long term. Like most people, seniormanagers in companies or governmentare most likely to be influenced by thepeople that they already know.”
Frans has also been leading the Tyndallproject: How can business adapt toclimate change? The results of theresearch were discussed with abusiness and policy audience in June. Afull record of the workshop will soon beavailable on the Tyndall Centre’swebsite.
Further information: Dr Frans [email protected] or the TyndallCentre’s Business Liaison ManagerElaine Jones [email protected]
Exploring Science and ArtThe Tyndall Centre is combining thecultures of science and art to create amajor new original artwork thatdescribes the aesthetic relationshipbetween climate and the builtenvironment. Canadian artist JaniceKerbel is creating the work incollaboration with Tyndall researchersand the Norwich School of Art.
Called Home Climate Garden, theexhibition consists of a series ofsculptural plantings and drawings thatare based on a number of everydayindoor habitats with different climates -for example, an air conditioned office, alibrary, a council flat, and a hair salon.Inspiring Janice’s work is the connectionbetween atmospheric quality, climateand plants.
The exhibition builds upon Janice’sexperience as artist-in-residence at theTyndall Centre. Her previous workincludes Bird Island and How to Rob aBank, where she rethinks concepts andpractices within the framework of theeveryday to interrogate the relationshipbetween the real, the imagined ideal,and the illusory.
Following its winter exhibition at NorwichArt Gallery, Home Climate Garden willtour selected UK art galleries in the NewYear.
Further information: Asher [email protected]
Home Climate Garden is exploring science and art withgallery-goers and school pupils in partnership with Janice
Kerbel, the Tyndall Centre’s artist-in-residence
© Janice Kerbel
The Tyndall Centre isinvestigating howagriculture can adapt tosummers with less water,when demand forirrigation is predicted torise 20% by 2025
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Involving the public incoastal decisions
Together with the Centre for Social andEconomic Research on the GlobalEnvironment (CSERGE), the TyndallCentre has organised a programme ofregional discussions called ‘Re-designing the coast’. The discussionshave brought together scientists, policy-makers, coastal planners and thegeneral public in a dialogue aboutmanaging sea level rise.
The series of meetings and workshopshave introduced estimates of future sea-level rise and their uncertainty, a rangeof coastal defence options, andinformation on how decisions affectingthe coast are made. The discussionshave led to a new Tyndall project, led byProfessor Tim O’Riordan that willresearch new forms of governance formore effective coastal management.
Tyndall’s novel research into coastal‘futurescapes’ is supporting thedecision-making.
“To visualise coastal futures we createhighly realistic visualisations using thesame technology that you see on flightsimulators, enabling the user to navigatearound a digital coastal landscape andexplore the future landscapes forthemselves,” said Andy Jones at TyndallCentre HQ.
Andy Jones uses a custom-madeportable equipment station to take thevisualisations to public meetings, but themajor innovation is a sophisticatedvirtual reality theatre within UEA’s newZuckerman Institute for ConnectiveEnvironmental Research. The theatre will
present visualisations on a large wrap-around screen, and by wearing specialviewing glasses, users will get a feelingof 3-D immersion as they navigate thevirtual reality landscapes.
Further information: Professor TimO’Riordan [email protected]; Dr Andy Jones [email protected];and Dr Kate Brown [email protected]
Research into sea level rise and local decision making hasbeen valued by Norfolk’s coastal councils and regionalorganisations, and is now reaching national bodies such asthe UK Government’s Department for Environment, Foodand Rural Affairs
© M. Robinson
In a case study at Christchurch Harbour and Barton-on-Sea in Dorset, KateBrown and colleagues interviewed local people, business-owners and decision-makers about their attitudes and perceptions towards sea level rise and coastaldefence. Early analysis suggests an interesting tension between participatory andcentralised approaches to decision making, and that overall perceptions areclouded by the distant time horizons of the impacts of sea level rise. Otherstudies are now underway in Scotland and East Anglia.
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Debatingnuclearpower withthe publicThe Tyndall Centre and the RoyalInstitution (Ri) organized an eveningdebate in May to discuss ‘NuclearPower: Global warming escape orunnecessary risk?’ The debate was atthe Ri’s famous London headquarters,held in the same lecture theatre whereJohn Tyndall delivered his 19th Centurypublic discourses.
Professor Ian Fells of NewcastleUniversity opened the debate. Heargued that the loss of carbon-freepower from the progressive closure ofold reactors will outweigh the growth ofrenewable energy, unless the UKcommissions new reactors.
The second speaker was BrunoLescoeur, head of electricity generationat Électricité de France. Francegenerates 80% of its electricity from
nuclear, and exports 15% of itselectricity to the rest of Europe. Brunodiscussed the need for France’s newgeneration of pressurised water reactorsto replace its decommissioned reactorsfrom 2017.
Vladimir Berkovski, Deputy Director ofRadiation Safety in the Ukraine,summarized the scale and impacts ofthe accident at the Chernobyl reactor in1986. Despite the severity of theaccident, he explained that the Ukrainehad no economic alternative but toproceed with its nuclear powerprogramme that currently delivers up to50% of its electricity.
The final speaker, Mark Johnston,argued that nuclear power is dirty,dangerous and expensive, citing asuccession of nuclear accidents andcontinual small-scale leaks. He notedthat without massive state subsidyneither British (nuclear) Energy norBritish Nuclear Fuels could survive.
The proceedings are being published asa Tyndall Centre-Royal Institution report.
Further information: Professor BrianLaunder [email protected]
The Tyndall Centre and the Royal Institution organized apublic debate to discuss ‘Nuclear Power: Global warmingescape or unnecessary risk?’ in the famous lecture theatrewhere John Tyndall delivered his 19th Century discourses
© Asher Minns / Tyndall Centre
New Headquarters for Tyndall HQ“Do something absolutely fresh and newin science,” said Solly Zuckerman in1960, the first Chief Scientific Advisor tothe UK Government when he proposedbringing together scientists from differentdisciplines to study the environment.Zuckerman’s vision has been continuedby the Research Council’s founding theTyndall Centre; and at UEA through thebuilding of the new Zuckerman Institutefor Connective Environmental Science(ZICER).
The Tyndall Centre’s HQ at UEA is nowlocated within ZICER. A glass bridgeconnects the ZICER building to theClimatic Research Unit and the mainSchool of Environmental Sciences.
The building is part-powered by a wall ofsolar panels, and is monitored as part ofa Europe-wide project studying thedesign and integration of solar panels. Aroof canopy system and reservoirs in thehollow concrete floors contribute to ahigh thermal inertia that should ensuretemperatures vary by less than onedegree centigrade throughout the year.
Tyndall North at UMIST in Manchester isalso moving to newly preparedpremises. They are relocating to thePariser Building at the centre of theUMIST campus.
Further information: Asher [email protected]; Susan [email protected]
"Do something absolutely fresh and new in science" saidSolly Zuckerman in 1960. Tyndall Centre HQ is now locatedwithin UEA’s new energy efficient building
© Asher Minns / Tyndall Centre
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One of UK science’s top honours, aRoyal Society-Wolfson Research MeritAward, has been awarded to ProfessorJohn Schellnhuber, the Tyndall Centre’sResearch Director. The award is inrecognition of his research intointegration science which investigateshow very complex problems, such asglobal climate change, need input andunderstanding from many directions ofunderstanding and expertise. Integrationscience is the backbone of the TyndallCentre’s research strategy.
“I am delighted that this Research MeritAward recognises the contribution ofinterdisciplinary, integrated research toadvancing the environmental sciences. It is the Tyndall approach to climate
change research,” said ProfessorSchellnhuber.
Research Merit Awards attract the verybest scientists to work in the UK.Professor Schellnhuber came to theTyndall Centre from the PotsdamInstitute for Climate Impact Research inGermany, where he is the foundingDirector. The Award, worth £1/4 million,is being used by Professor Schellnhuberto develop an integrated assessmentsystem to better understand thecomplex decisions and solutions neededfor climate change research.
Further information: Asher [email protected]
Science honour for the Tyndall approach
One of UK science’s top honours, a Royal Society-WolfsonResearch Merit Award, has been awarded to Professor JohnSchellnhuber, the Tyndall Centre’s Research Director
Arctic climate change and itsimplications for the UK were explored inMay at a Tyndall symposium inpartnership with the Polar Regions Unitof the UK Government’s Foreign andCommonwealth Office (FCO). As a closeneighbour of Arctic Europe, the UK canexpect to experience a number of directand indirect effects over the short tolong term.
Short-term (less than 25 years)The UK population’s exposure to UVradiation will increase through acombination of Arctic ozone depletionand climate change-related effects such
as changes in cloud cover, increasingaverage and extreme temperatures andchanges in recreational behaviour. Theinterplay between climate change andthe chemistry of the Arctic atmospherewill have a direct bearing on the risks ofmalignant melanomas for the UKpopulation.
Medium-term (within 50 years)Climate-related changes to Arctichabitats, such as reductions in tundraarea and shifts in the timing of springgrowth periods, are likely to havesubstantial impacts on the breedingsuccess of Arctic-breeding bird species.
This would have serious implications forthe numbers of migratory birds comingto the UK.
Climate change will bring newopportunities for UK companies toexploit rich and newly accessible Arcticreserves of petroleum, mineral ores andfish. This will need to be set against newpriorities - nationally and globally - for aless polluting energy economy and moresustainable industrial development.
The UK insurance industry will need toadjust to escalating claims associatedwith climate change related incidents(such as pipeline fractures caused bysubsidence from melting permafrost),but will also be presented with newinvestment opportunities as Arcticactivities increase.
Long-term (beyond 50 years) An increase in Arctic meltwater flowinginto the northern North Atlantic mayweaken the thermohaline circulation anddisrupt ocean currents in the NorthAtlantic. This could significantly affectnorthwest European climate but thelikelihood, timing and impact of such alow probability but extreme event ispoorly understood.
Further information: Asher [email protected]
Feeling the effects of Arctic climate change
A Tyndall symposium explored arctic climate changein partnership with the Polar Regions Unit of the UK
Government’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office© John Sharp
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Tyndall Assembled
In July, over 130 Tyndall Centreresearchers from across the countryattended the third annual TyndallAssembly, the UK’s largest climatechange research conference. TheAssembly was hosted at ChilworthManor by Tyndall Centre South, which isbased at Southampton OceanographyCentre (SOC) and the University ofSouthampton.
Professor John Shepherd of the SOC isthe Director of Tyndall South. He gave akey-note lecture about using new e-Science technology to model earthsystems, and discussed the GEnIEproject (Grid Enabled Integrated EarthSystem) at Southampton’s regional e-science centre.
The proceedings of the three daymeeting spanned the academicdisciplines which are part of the Tyndallremit (natural science, engineering, and socio-economics) and contained acombination of plenary lectures,
research updates, breakout sessionsand socialising.
Guest speakers included Sir Eric Ash,former Rector of Imperial College,energy efficiency expert BrendaBoardman MBE from Oxford University,Paul Ekins of the Policy Studies Instituteat LSE, and John Ashton, a formerdiplomat and now Strategic Director ofLEAD International.
During the conference, £900,000 ofnewly funded Tyndall projects wereannounced, making the Tyndall Centrecommunity now 150 researchers strongand distributed across 25 Universitiesand Research Centres throughout the UK.
Further information: Professor JohnShepherd [email protected] www.genie.ac.uk)
Over 130 Tyndall researchers attended the third annualTyndall Assembly, hosted by Tyndall Centre South
Tyndall researchers at theUniversity of Leeds’ Institute forTransport Studies are simulating arange of traffic growth forecasts,technological change andbehavioural change for meetingcarbon dioxide emissions targets
©. Still Pictures / Dylan Garcia
Climate change, impacts, futurescenarios and the role of transport,Alison Pridmore, Abigail Bristow, TonyMay and Miles Tight, June 2003 TWP33
Integrating renewables and CHP into theUK Electricity System: Investigation ofthe impact of network faults on thestability of large offshore wind farms,Xueguang Wu, Lee Holdsworth, NickJenkins and Goran Strbac, April 2003TWP32
A scoping study of UK user needs formanaging climate futures. Part 1 of thepilot-phase interactive integratedassessment process (Aurion Project),John Turnpenny, Alex Haxeltine and TimO’Riordan, April 2003 TWP31
Abrupt climate change: can societycope? Mike Hulme, March 2003 TWP30
A multi-criteria assessment frameworkfor carbon-mitigation projects: Putting“development” in the centre of decision-making, Katrina Brown and EsteveCorbera, February 2003 TWP29
Defining and experiencing dangerousclimate change, Suraje Dessai, W. NeilAdger, Mike Hulme, Jonathan Köhler,John Turnpenny and Rachel Warren,January 2003 TWP28
Building resilience to climate changethrough adaptive management of naturalresources, Emma L. Tompkins and W. Neil Adger, January 2003 TWP27
Country level risk measures of climate-related natural disasters and implicationsfor adaptation to climate change, NickBrooks and W. Neil Adger, January 2003TWP26
An investigation of network splitting forfault level reduction, Xueguang Wu,Joseph Mutale, Nick Jenkins and GoranStrbac, January 2003 TWP25
Impact of integrating renewables andCHP into the UK transmission network,Xueguang Wu, Nick Jenkins and GoranStrbac, November 2002 TWP24
Justice and adaptation to climatechange, Jouni Paavola and Neil Adger,October 2002 TWP23
Renewable energy and combined heatand power resources in the UK, JimWatson, Julia Hertin, Tom Randall andClair Gough, April 2002 TWP22
Renewables and CHP deployment in theUK to 2020, Jim Watson, January 2002TWP21
Reviewing organisational use ofscenarios: Case study - evaluating UKenergy policy options, John Turnpenny,August 2002 TWP20
The role of hydrogen in powering roadtransport, Alison Pridmore and AbigailBristow, April 2002 TWP19
The development of large technicalsystems: implications for hydrogen, JimWatson, March 2002 TWP18
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Working PapersA selection of the most recent Tyndall Centre Working Papers - theyare downloadable at www.tyndall.ac.uk. Tyndall Working Papers arefor the early availability of mature research results.
© Jenny Colls
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Hydrogen energy technology, GeoffDutton, April 2002 TWP17
Adaptation to climate change: Settingthe agenda for development policy andresearch, Neil Adger, Saleemul Huq,Katrina Brown, Declan Conway andMike Hulme, April 2002 TWP16
Long run technical change in an energy-environment-economy (E3) model for anIA system: A model of Kondratievwaves, Jonathan Köhler, April 2002TWP15
The use of integrated assessment: aninstitutional analysis perspective, SimonShackley and Clair Gough, April 2002TWP14
Technological change, industry structureand the environment, Paul Dewick, KenGreen and Marcela Miozzo, January2002 TWP13
The climate regime from The Hague toMarrakech: Saving or sinking the KyotoProtocol?, Suraje Dessai, December2001 TWP12
Representing the integrated assessmentof climate change, adaptation andmitigation, Terry Barker, December 2001TWP11
Burying carbon under the sea: an initialexploration of public opinions, ClairGough, Ian Taylor and Simon Shackley,December 2001 TWP10
Climate dangers and atoll countries, JonBarnett and Neil Adger, October 2001TWP9
Social capital and climate change, NeilAdger, October 2001 TWP8
Security and climate change, JonBarnett, October 2001 TWP7
The identification and evaluation ofsuitable scenario development methodsfor the estimation of future probabilitiesof extreme weather events, ClareGoodess, Mike Hulme and Tim Osborn,July 2001 TWP6
The issue of ‘Adverse effects and theimpacts of response measures’ in theUNFCCC, Jon Barnett, July 2001 TWP5
How high are the costs of Kyoto for theUS economy? Terry Barker and PaulEkins, July 2001 TWP4
Socio-economic futures in climatechange impact assessment: usingscenarios as ‘learning machines’, FransBerkhout, Julia Hertin and AndrewJordan, July 2001 TWP3
Integrated assessment models MikeHulme, March 2001 TWP2
A country-by-country analysis of pastand future warming rates, Tim Mitchelland Mike Hulme, November 2000 TWP1
Front cover photographs© Emma Archer
© Still Pictures / Dylan Garcia© M.Robinson
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the effect is the Tyndall Centre’s annual newsletter. You can registerfor quarterly e-updates about our research highlights andcommunication activities at www.tyndall.ac.uk
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A range of further information, including contact details forproject leaders and other staff, fact sheets about the TyndallCentre’s research, the Tyndall Centre’s Research Strategy, anda quarterly electronic newsletter, is available at our website.
The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research is core-funded by the UK research councils; NERC; EPSRC; ESRC;and receives additional support from the Department of Tradeand Industry.
For more information, please contact:
Tyndall Centre (Headquarters)School of Environmental Sciences,University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UKPhone: +44 (0) 1603 59 3900; Fax: +44 (0) 1603 59 3901Email: [email protected]
Tyndall Centre (North)School of Mechanical Engineering,UMIST, PO Box 88, Manchester, M60 1QD, UKPhone: +44 (0) 161 200 3700; Fax: +44 (0) 161 200 3723Email: [email protected]
Tyndall Centre (South)Southampton Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton,Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UKPhone: +44 (0) 2380 59 4063; Fax: +44 (0) 2380 59 6258Email: [email protected]
University of East Anglia www.uea.ac.uk
UMIST www.umist.ac.uk
University of Southamptonand Southampton Oceanography Centre www.soc.soton.ac.uk
University of Cambridge www.cam.ac.uk
SPRU (Science and Technology Policy Research),University of Sussex www.sussex.ac.uk/spru
ITS (Institute for Transport Studies),University of Leeds www.its.leeds.ac.uk
NERC Centre for Ecology and HydrologyBush & Wallingford www.ceh.ac.uk
Cranfield University www.som.cranfield.ac.uk/som/complex
Energy Research Unit (CLRC-RAL) www.eru.rl.ac.uk
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