higher value without estimating
TRANSCRIPT
Planning without Estimation
Bonnie Aumann and Arlo Belshee
Create the product with the Highest Value
You have 90 business days (aka 6 months) to deliver
No peeking! The front of the card is all the information you have
Estimated Business Value: Excellent > Good > Some > Low
Flip a card
Add the Actual Value in $$ to your total
Subtract the Actual Cost in days from your quota
How it was Rigged
Card Values and Costs are selected completely independently•The only correlation is that there are no excellent value cards with a less than a day estimate.
Cost estimates are 100% accurate
Value estimates have a 25% chance of being "wrong“•Wrong is defined as off by a factor of 2, which may or may not actually cause a card to be miscategorized. •In particular, that’s more likely to throw off telling whether a given card is “low” or “some” value, and not likely to misfile an excellent – which matches real world.
Real Results – Agile Tour 10/6/2009
Team 1:
Team 2:
Team 3:
Team 4:
With Cost Estimates
$408,182
$412,958
$215,447
$410,647
Teams did 3 to 4 times better without cost estimates
No Cost Estimates
$1,465,700
$1,183,00
$1,166,900
$1,227,000
Prioritization Matrix
Prioritization Matrix
$$$
Prioritization Matrix
$$$ Investment
Prioritization Matrix
$$$ Investment
Cheap!
Prioritization Matrix
$$$ Investment
Cheap! WTF
Typical Choices
$$$ Investment
Cheap! WTF
There’s a problem
Choosing this way actually reduces
Total Value
-- we just saw this happen --
Cognitive Illusion
Logarithmic
Linear
Maximum Value
$$$
Cheap! WTF
Investment“An Edge”
