higher value of wood products indonesia- aciar consultation on forestry jakarta 22 february 2007 by:...
TRANSCRIPT
HIGHER VALUE OF WOOD PRODUCTS
Indonesia- ACIAR Indonesia- ACIAR Consultation on Forestry Consultation on Forestry Jakarta 22 February 2007Jakarta 22 February 2007
By: Dr. Doddy S. Sukadri - By: Dr. Doddy S. Sukadri - CESERFCESERF
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Log supplyAssessment
Wood-basedIndustry
Trade& Marketing
Triangle principle
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Area of concerns –brief findings
• Wood-based Industry
– Excessive Log Demand – Disequilibrium– Low level of recovery rate– Wasteful Harvest and Conversion– Primary Export Product Orientation– Neglect of Domestic Market Development– Market Distortions – Uncertain True Economic
Structure to guide Decision-Making and Investment – Excess/Uneconomic Capacity Liquidation
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Changing Log Supply
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Future timber supply
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Focus on Plywood
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Area of concerns –brief findings
• International Trade & Markets
– Easy Export Markets – Logs and Primary Products – Weak Competitor Value Products
– Global Markets Dynamic - Competitive– Changing Competitive Advantage
• Old: Low Cost Logs & Labor• New: Efficiency & Comparative Advantage• Loss of Market Shares except Sawnwood
– New Market Opportunities –Mixed Focus • Plantation Woods/Composite Products
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Custom Order Production
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Export Panels
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Objectives of the Study
• To recommend Strategies that will competitively address the wood-based industry structure and capacity, taking into account sustainable domestic logs capacity and market trends
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Skenario Status Quo: Produksi Kayu Selama 20 Thn
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Pro
du
ksi K
ayu
, Ju
ta M
3Status Quo Situation: Forestry at a Transition Point
Status Quo Scenario Findings:• Sustainable cut of natural forest: ≈ 9 M m3/yr• Existing HTI production: ≈ 11 M m3/yr• Alternative supplies: ≈ 1-2 M m3/yr
Timber Gap: 25-30 M m3 into the future
Current, Legal Supply- Mainly from natural forests- No increase in plantation rate nor productivity
Unsustainable Harvest (IL)
Current Industrial Demand: ≈ 50-60 M m3/yr
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Skenario Optimistik: Produksi Kayu Selama 20 Tahun
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Pro
du
ksi K
ayu
, Ju
ta M
3Positive Future Prospects – 20 Yrs:
Plantation Timber Helps Balance Supply & Demand
Improved Future Supply Potential Assumes:• ▲HTI Pulp from 100,000 to 250,000/yr• ▲HTI productivity from 15 to 60 m3/yr• ▲Alt sources to 3-5 M m3/yr: H.R., Rubber, Imports
• ▼Pressure on Primary Forest in SR• Continue to harvest Secondary Forest in LR
Timber Gap Can Be Reduced with
Plantations after 8 yrs
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Skenario Optimistik: Produksi Kayu Selama 20 Tahun
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Pro
du
ksi K
ayu
, Ju
ta M
3Cycle of Plantation Timber
Creates Three ‘Natural’ 7 Year Phases
Short Run
Med. Run
Short Run: • Physical Gap: demand > supply • Need to control forest crime• Need new, legal sources in SR• Need Planting for LR
Medium Run: • Can fill gap with planting• More grown timber• New process technology
Long Run: • Plenty of grown timber• Can expand industry • Compete internationally
Long Run
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Skenario Optimistik: Produksi Kayu Selama 20 Tahun
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Pro
du
ksi K
ayu
, Ju
ta M
3Synthesis Recommendation: Phased Intervention Strategy -
Restructuring, Re-engineering, Revitalization
Phase 3: REVITALIZATIONAfter 2020
• Growth Based on Plantations• Increased Exports • Legal, Sustainable, CompetitiveShort Run
Med. Run
Phase 2: RE-ENGINEERING2013-2020
• Gap Nearly Balanced • Retool Industry for Efficiency• Focus on High Value Markets
Phase 1: RESTRUCTURINGNOW to 2012
• Intensify Timber Planting• Improve HTI Productivity• Reduce Forest Crime & Debt• Develop Alternative Sources• Temporarily Limit Processing
Builds on Current MoF Policy
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Secondary Value-Added Export
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Flooring & Furniture
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Prospective research areas
• Wood-based industry structure based on sustainable log supply and market orientation
• Determination of new product with high growth capability
• The uses of new or improved technology in order to achieve a better processing efficiency
• Financial assistance scheme in developing and researching to improve the processing technology
• Market intelligence for lesser-known wood-based
products
ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation
Thank You & Have a nice day
Ex Post Evaluation ITTO PD 85/01 Rev 2 (I)ACIAR- Indonesia Consultation