higher for target of 11700… - icici...
TRANSCRIPT
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December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 1
Research Analyst
Amit Gupta [email protected] Azeem Ahmad [email protected]
Raj Deepak Singh [email protected] Nandish Patel [email protected]
Rational exuberance to drive Nifty
higher for target of 11700…
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-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
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1.5
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2.5
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
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Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Oct
-18
Fed
Fu
nd
rate
Re
turn
s (i
n B
Ps
in B
on
ds
& %
fo
r o
the
rs)
Rate hike months
US 2 year US 10 Year Gold
S&P Index Fed Rate
80
100
120
45
50
55
60
65
De
c-15
Feb
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
De
c-16
Feb
-17
Ap
r-1
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Jun
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
Co
nsu
mer
Co
nfi
den
ce
PM
I Ma
nu
fact
urin
g/C
omp
osit
e PMI Manufacturing PMI Services
80
90
100
110
120
130
45
50
55
60
65
Dec
-15
Feb
-16
Ap
r-16
Jun
-16
Au
g-16
Oct
-16
Dec
-16
Feb
-17
Ap
r-17
Jun
-17
Au
g-17
Oct
-17
Co
nsu
me
r Co
nfid
ence
PM
I Ma
nu
fact
urin
g/C
omp
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e PMI Manufacturing PMI Services Consumer Confidence
Since first rate hike by Fed in Dec 2015, US equites continue
to clock strong returns, drawing incremental share of flow
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 2
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Equity continues to outperform since start of rate hike cycle in US
Sentiment continues to improve at corporate, individual
level in US
Easy financial conditions, subdued volatility to aid further
upsides
Contraction
Expansion Tight financial con
Easy Financial Con
Since the commencement
of rate hike by the US Fed
in 2015, equity markets
have constantly
outperformed other key
asset classes like gold and
bonds. This has triggered
strong inflows into equites
at the expense of other
key asset classes like bond
and gold
S&P is likely to clock strong
positive returns in 2018, as
the Fed is expected to deliver
two or three rate hikes in
2018, which is likely to keep
the underperformance trend
of bonds, gold intact (caveat
being deflation shock)
Easy financial conditions
coupled with subdued
volatility and robust
sentiment from corporates,
individuals to continue to
thrust US equities higher
Forecast
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Year Standard Deviation Return
2015 4% 0%
2016 3% 10%
2017 1.5% 17%
Year Standard Deviation Return
2015 4% -3%
2016 5% 4%
2017 3% 24%
2018 1.5% 17%
Indian markets following S&P: What happened in S&P in
2016 started in Nifty from 2017
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 3Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Standard deviation of S&P returns started declining in 2016
Standard deviation of Nifty returns starts declining in 2017
Hence, Nifty projection for 2018: 11700
Trend of declines getting smaller seen in S&P since 2016
Limited decline trend also seen in Nifty since 2017
The decline in standard deviation (SD) of S&P returns was seen in 2016 when SD declined from 4% to 3%. In the Nifty, it was seen in
2017 when SD of Nifty returns fell from 5% to 3%. We believe 2018 would be the year in which SD of Nifty returns could witness a further
decline from 3% to 1.5% following S&P pattern. Hence, we believe the Nifty should be able to post near 17% return in the coming year
-30
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2011
2012
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2015
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2017
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Net Returns
Max consecutive monthly drawdowns
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0
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40
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2011
2012
2013
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2015
2016
2017
Re
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Net Returns
Max Consecutive monthly drawdowns
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-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Jan-
15
Feb
-15
Ma
r-1
5
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-
15
Aug
-15
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
Nov
-15
Dec
-15
Jan-
16
Feb
-16
Ma
r-1
6
Apr
-16
Ma
y-1
6
Jun-
16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
Nov
-16
Dec
-16
Jan-
17
Feb
-17
Ma
r-1
7
Apr
-17
Ma
y-1
7
Jun-
17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
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Nov
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Dec
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Nif
ty M
on
thly
Ret
urn
s
0
1
2
3
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6
7
-8% -7% -5% -4% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
No
of
Mo
nth
sSteady inflows have led to Nifty following
Uniform distribution pattern
Nifty monthly returns have been forming uniform distribution
pattern – an indication of steady flows
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research4
• The Nifty returns have been
within -1-4% range. The
extreme cases of large losses
or gains have remained
limited. This shows the
steadiness of returns where
the Nifty returns pattern has
formed uniformly distributed
pattern
Nifty returns uniformly distributed
No more than 2 negative monthly closings
Frequency of Nifty monthly returns have been mainly within -1-4%
• The Nifty has been unable to close
negative on a monthly basis for
three consecutive months despite
any negative event due to this
persistent inflow
Nifty monthly performance – Bounce seen after two consecutive negative monthly closing
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
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Writing positions formed in 10000 Put of December 2017 and
9700 Put of June 2018 in middle of 2017
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 5
EM Currency basket strength justified 10000 Put of December 2017
• Even when the market was jittery and
saw a correction from 10200 to 9700
in the middle of 2017, action was
taking place in 10000 Put of December
and 9700 Put of June 2018. These
strikes were getting written, which
signals towards strong support near
these levels
• Nifty 10000 Put writing suggests the
Nifty may try to form a base near
10000 and have an upward trajectory
Nifty writing seen at 10000 Put
10000 Put is shorted at 400 points of premium – indicating strong support at 9600
Pri
ceO
pen
Inte
rest
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
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June 2018, 9700 Put writing further strengthens view of
strong support near these levels
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 6
EM Currency basket strength justified 9700 Put of June 2018
• The action happened not only in 2017
Put strike but also in June 2018 Put
strike where premiums were shorted
in anticipation of limited downsides in
the market
• The 9700 Put of June 2018 is still
witnessing writing. This also started
when the Nifty was near 9700. This
strengthens the view that strong
support for the market is close to
these levels
9700 Put of June 2018 also seeing
writing
9700 Put of June 2018 is also shorted, which signifies support near these levels in the coming year
Pri
ceO
pen
Inte
rest
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
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0
15
30
45
India S&P DAX Korea Taiwan
% R
etu
rn
2015 2016 2017
Liquidity likely to remain benign in 2018: Despite US Fed
unwind, ECB, BoJ continues with QE
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 7
• While the US Fed has started its
unwinding of balance sheet, ECB
and BoJ are likely to continue with
their QE programme
• Together, they will continue to
push US$100 billion of QE till June
2018. Even after this, BoJ is likely
to continue with its US$60 billion
QE run rate. Hence, the central
bank liquidity picture is likely to
remain positive in 2018
• A positive liquidity environment
bodes well for risk assets like
equities
ECB & BoJ to continue on QE path Despite US Fed unwind, ECB, BoJ continue on QE path in H1 of 2018
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Oct
-17
No
v-17
Dec
-17
Jan-
18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
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Au
g-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
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Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-19
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
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Au
g-19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
In U
S $
Bil
lio
n
BoJ ECB
Consistent liquidity flows lead to gradual equity rise across markets
All the markets have got synchronised on account of persistent flows, which are expected to
continue in 2018
Gradual upsides seen in equity markets
• The chart on the left side depicts
total upsides-Total downsides in
various equity markets. It shows
how this difference is increasing
eventually in favour of rising
markets
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
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40
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Indi
a VI
X
EM &
G7
Vola
tili
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EM Vol G-7 Vol India Vol
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140
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-97
Oct
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Au
g-99
Jun
-00
Ap
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-03
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g-04
Jun
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Ap
r-06
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Au
g-09
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Ap
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-13
Au
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Jun
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Ap
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Feb
-17
In U
S $
Bil
lio
n
Developed markets continue to see flows in equities
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 8
Equity ETF in US clocked record inflowUS equity ETF has seen inflows at strongest pace ….
• ETFs in US have outgrown actively
managed MFs. On a consolidated
basis, strong inflow is seen in equity
ETF
• As per the latest data for 2017, equity
based ETFs have received almost
double the record inflows seen in 2016
• This suggests preference for equity
remains
Globally volatility on declining trend not only in developed market but also in EMs
• Cross asset volatility is likely to
remain low. In equity markets more
specifically, volatility has been moving
in sync not only for India and EMs but
also the developed markets
• With chances of any major risk shock
remaining benign, volatility across
equity markets is likely to remain low
Volatility to remain lower in equities
ETF flows in the US are continuously rising and are seen at a 20-year high in the
latter part of 2017
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Dec
-07
Ap
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Dec
-08
Ap
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Au
g-09
Dec
-09
Ap
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Au
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Dec
-10
Ap
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Au
g-11
Dec
-11
Ap
r-12
Au
g-12
Dec
-12
Ap
r-13
Au
g-13
Dec
-13
Ap
r-14
Au
g-14
Dec
-14
Ap
r-15
Au
g-15
Dec
-15
Ap
r-16
Au
g-16
Dec
-16
Ap
r-17
Au
g-17
In U
S $
mil
lio
n
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
Oct
-12
Dec
-12
Feb
-13
Ap
r-13
Jun
-13
Au
g-13
Oct
-13
Dec
-13
Feb
-14
Ap
r-14
Jun
-14
Au
g-14
Oct
-14
Dec
-14
Feb
-15
Ap
r-15
Jun
-15
Au
g-15
Oct
-15
Dec
-15
Feb
-16
Ap
r-16
Jun
-16
Au
g-16
Oct
-16
Dec
-16
Feb
-17
Ap
r-17
Jun
-17
Au
g-17
Oct
-17
In U
S $
mil
lio
n
Emerging markets: Equities continue to attract fund flows
with outflows seen from bonds in H2 2017
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 9
Bond market flows taking a breather
Largest EM ETF has seen strong inflows
• At the start of the year, as the reflation
trade eased, EM bonds saw strong
buying interest in H1 of 2017.
However, in H2 of 2017, as growth
picked up pace in most Ems, the
inflows in bonds tapered off
• Additionally, the decidedly hawkish
centrals banks of the US & Europe
kept yields higher. This reduced the
spread between developed markets
and EMs. As a result, the alpha from
EM bond portfolio has reduced
• FIIs are using the equity route for EMs
as GDP growth and EPS expansion
remains intact for most EMs
• Hence, in 2018, EM equites should
continue to see strong inflows even if
bond market inflows remain subdued
Contrastingly, bond market ETF has seen outflows since September, 2017
EM equites continue to be strong
• EMs backed by strong macro
environment of strong growth and
lower inflation have kept FIIs glued to
buying into the EM equity class
• Asian EMs have particularly performed
well, with returns exceeding 20% for
most
• With GDP, EPS growth continuing in
most EMs, FII interest in EM is likely
to continue in 2018. This provides
imputes for EMs to move higher
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
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-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Cze
ch
Re
pu
bli
c
Pol
and
Eu
rop
e
Bu
lga
ria
De
nm
ark
Hun
gary
So
uth
Ko
rea
Th
ail
an
d
Ma
lay
sia
Ro
ma
nia
Isra
el
Me
xic
o
Taiw
an
Sw
ed
en
Sin
ga
po
re
Ind
ia
Ch
ina
Can
ada
Pe
ru
Sw
itze
rla
nd
No
rwa
y
Jap
an
Ru
ssi
a
Ch
ile
Ne
wze
lan
d
So
uth
Afr
ica
Co
lam
bia
Ind
on
es
ia
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Bra
zil
Au
stra
lia
Arg
en
tin
a
UK
Tu
rke
y
Cu
rre
nc
y R
etu
rns
(%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
S&P DAX Nifty Hangseng Taiwan
Size
of
Co
rrec
tio
n (%
)
2015 2016 2017
Strong liquidity induced strength in most currency pairs…
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 10
EM Currency basket strength justified All major currency pairs have strengthened in 2017, as Dollar Index weakened over 10%
• At the start of the year, on fears of
“reflation trade” EM currencies were
looking weak. However during the
year, as the EM’s continued to post
robust growth, their currency and
forex reserves positions improved. The
usual suspect “Current account
deficit”, also improved for most key
EM’s.
• Hence as we look into 2018, the EM
currency basket seems substantially
resilient (when compared in the last
couple of years).
• With the commodity recovery story
intact in midst of strong macro
environment, EM’s are set to deliver
strong & synchronised price
performance in 2018
Size of corrections in equity markets reducing due to resilient currency in last couple of years
• Since the last few years the steady flows
in the equity markets have restricted the
equity downsides. Certain major
downsides have become on account of
events like US rate hike, Election jitters in
Euro
Equity corrections have reduced
Major currencies have appreciated
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
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Rupee remained one of the strongest in EMs: Recent
sovereign upgrade may take it towards 62
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 11
Moody’s upgraded India last time in 2002-04. Over the
next few years, the rupee strengthened over ~15% and
tested its mean-3*sigma levels near | 39.50/US$
Rating agency Moody’s upgrades India’s sovereign
bond rating after 13 years on the back of improved
fundamentals and structural reforms. This could be a
booster for the rupee to strengthen against US$ and
it could test its mean 3-sigma level near 62.0
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
INR
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Stocks witnessing accumulation pattern- Quant Picks for 2018
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 12
Stocks Initiation range CMP Target Stoploss
Engineers India 184-191 189 245 161
Havells 525-539 538 655 470
Arvind 428-439 436 545 375
Adani Ports 392-402 398 495 345
GSFC 136-140 138 174 119
Stock selection based on recent fund flow action
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
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Engineers India: Finally moved above buyback price
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 13
Engineers India - Volatility
Company buyback seen near 157
Engineers India – lower wild swings indicate accumulation pattern
• Engineers India shares were
bought by the government at an
average price of | 157, which
would remain important in the
coming months
• The government had 57.02% in EIL
prior the launch of the | 658.80-
crore share buyback on July 25.
The 4.19 crore share buyback plan
at | 157 per share ended on
August 7. Post buyback
government holding is at 54.17%
• After spending some time near the
buyback price, the stock Has
taken out the last seven-year’s
supply zone of | 170-175
Buy Range : | 184-191 Target: | 245 Stop loss: | 161
Number of positive closings: Displaying consistently strong performance post 2016
Engineers India’s historical volatility has been on
a declining pattern, a sign of accumulation in the
stock. In a one-year period, it had declined from
51% to 31%. The stock has started moving
above the long time consolidation range
* Historical volatility is the standard deviation
of stock futures prices of previous months
2-year average 51%
1-year average 37%
6M average 34%
Current 31%
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
2015 2016 2017
Ne
t P
osi
tive
Tota
l Co
un
t
Positive Close Negative Close Net Positive
No
of
Ob
serv
atio
ns
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Return Intervals
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Havells: Volatility declines despite numerous jitters in 2017
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 14
Historical volatilityHavells – Returns are concentrated within (-2% to 4%) band and large declines are arrested
Buy Range: | 525-539 Target: | 655 Stop loss: | 470
Number of positive closings: Reverts from negative to positive
Havells – Coming out of last year’s
consolidation
• The recent reduction of GST on
cables from 28% to 18% has done a
word of good for the stock. It has
been coming out of last year’s
consolidation
• It is focussing on street lighting
where margins are expected to
remain high. In addition, the entry
into AC segment would also benefit
the company
• The recent price move has seen
37% closure of short positions.
These were positional shorts,
which were added in the stock in
the last nine-month consolidation
Despite witnessing numerous profit booking
declines, Havel's volatility has gradually
been coming down. It is a sign of buying
seen at lower levels
2-year average 40.5%
1-year average 38.0%
6M average 32.6%
Current 31%
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0
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20
30
40
0
50
100
150
2015 2016 2017
Ne
t P
osi
tive
Tota
l Co
un
t
Positive Close Negative Close Net Positive
No
of
Ob
serv
atio
ns
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Return Intervals
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Arvind: Coming out of last three-year’s consolidation
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 15
Historical VolatilityArvind – Despite underperformance in last year, the highest no. of returns seen within (-2% to 3%)
Buy Range : | 428-439 Target: | 545 Stop loss: | 375
Number of positive closings post 2016 increase
Arvind – coming out of last three year’s
supply zone
• Arvind has started seeing positive
consolidation. Declines in the
stock have got limited
• The delivery buying activity has
increased of late, which has led to
a gradual rise in the stock
• The company has announced the
demerger of its branded apparel
and engineering business, which
would create value for its
shareholders
The volatility pattern of Arvind shows the
accumulation seen in the last couple of
years. The volatility in 2016 was near 50%
when the stock was trading near | 360
levels. This volatility has been continuously
declining and has come down below 40%,
which may act as a trigger for further
upsides in the stock
2-year average 50.0%
1-year average 46.5%
6M average 44.0%
Current 39.5%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
105
110
115
120
125
130
2015 2016 2017
Net
Pos
itiv
e
Tota
l Cou
nt
Positive Close Negative Close Net Positive
No
of
Ob
serv
atio
ns
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Return Intervals
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Adani Port: Sharp reduction in volatility along with positional
short positions
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 16
Adani PortsAdani Ports – Accumulation seen with lower negative wild swings amid last 6-month consolidation
Buy Range : | 392-402 Target: | 495 Stop loss: | 345
Seeing sharp surge in positive closings in 2017 after remaining dull in previous years
Historical volatility
Adani Port – Forming base above 2015
highs
• Government support for
infrastructure spending by private
players is likely to be a big push for
infrastructure players
• Government focus on increasing
modal share of sea base may lead
to higher investment in the port
space
• After seeing quite high closure of
short positions, the stock is
expected to pick up momentum
with addition of long positions that
are getting rolled over to
forthcoming month. Leverage is still
quite low in the stock, which can
limit downsides in F&O space
One of the sharpest falls was seen in Adani
Port volatility, which is an encouraging sign.
In the last six to seven months when it has
been consolidating above 2015 high of
| 370, volatility has declined from 32.5% to
25.8%, which is a sign of buying
2-year average 46.0%
1-year average 38.0%
6M average 32.5%
Current 25.8%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
0
50
100
150
2015 2016 2017N
et
Po
siti
ve
Tota
l Co
un
t
Positive Close Negative Close Net Positive
No
of
Ob
serv
atio
ns
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Return Intervals
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GSFC: Downsides have got limited due to ongoing
accumulation
December 13, 2017 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 17
GSFC – Saw numerous declines from 150 but negative returns frequency has been lower
Buy Range : | 136-140 Target: | 174 Stop loss: | 119
Number of positive closings: While negative, have seen strong improvement in H2 of 2017
Historical volatility
GSFC – Declines getting arrested near
| 125-130
• GSFC started 2017 at | 120 and
has moved up to | 140 levels amid
quite a number of declines seen
from | 155-160
• We believe the accumulation
pattern is building up in the stock,
which has limited the declines and
also the much needed volatility.
• Direct benefit transfer (DBT) could
be a good trigger for this space. In
addition, the pick-up in rural income
could also lead to a better
performance
• There has been gradual
accumulation in the stock in the
cash and futures space. Since the
inception in F&O segment, open
interest in the stock has risen from
8 million shares to 21 million shares
Volatility of GSFC has started declining
since last year. Despite moving higher from
42% to 47% in 2016, it has declined from
47% to 37.5% in the last year. This has
happened despite recent profit booking from
| 160 to | 135 levels
2-year average 42.0%
1-year average 47.0%
6M average 44.5%
Current 37.5%
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
0
50
100
150
2015 2016 2017
Ne
t P
osi
tive
Tota
l Co
un
t
Positive Close Negative Close Net Positive
No
of
Ob
serv
atio
ns
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Return Intervals
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Stock Performance in 12 months
Engineers India Havells
Arvind Adani Ports
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
13-Dec-16
3-Jan-17
24-Jan-17
14-Feb-17
7-Mar-17
28-Mar-17
18-Apr-17
9-May-17
30-May-17
20-Jun-17
11-Jul-17
1-Aug-17
22-Aug-17
12-Sep-17
3-Oct-17
24-Oct-17
14-Nov-17
5-Dec-17
310
360
410
460
510
560
610
13-Dec-16
3-Jan-17
24-Jan-17
14-Feb-17
7-Mar-17
28-Mar-17
18-Apr-17
9-May-17
30-May-17
20-Jun-17
11-Jul-17
1-Aug-17
22-Aug-17
12-Sep-17
3-Oct-17
24-Oct-17
14-Nov-17
5-Dec-17
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
13-Dec-16
3-Jan-17
24-Jan-17
14-Feb-17
7-Mar-17
28-Mar-17
18-Apr-17
9-May-17
30-May-17
20-Jun-17
11-Jul-17
1-Aug-17
22-Aug-17
12-Sep-17
3-Oct-17
24-Oct-17
14-Nov-17
5-Dec-17
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
450
13-Dec-16
13-Jan-17
13-Feb-17
13-Mar-17
13-Apr-17
13-May-17
13-Jun-17
13-Jul-17
13-Aug-17
13-Sep-17
13-Oct-17
13-Nov-17
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GSFC
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
13-Dec-16
13-Jan-17
13-Feb-17
13-Mar-17
13-Apr-17
13-May-17
13-Jun-17
13-Jul-17
13-Aug-17
13-Sep-17
13-Oct-17
13-Nov-17
Stock Performance in 12 months
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Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st
Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road no.7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Amit Gupta B.E, MBA (Finance), Azeem Ahmad MBA (Fin), CS, Raj Deepak Singh BE, MBA (Finance), Nandish Patel, Research Analysts, authors and the names
subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also
certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
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