Higher Education Today

• Increasing stratification, separate and unequal tiers

• In many ways reinforcing, and in some ways widening, inequality

Political failure

No Longer the International Leader

Inequality in College Degrees

Source: Thomas G. Mortenson, “Family Income and Unequal Educational Opportunity, 1970-2011,” Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 245 (2012), www.postsecondary.org

Bottom 2nd 3rd Top0

102030405060708090

100

611 15

40

10 15

30

71

Estimated Percentage of U.S. Population with 4-yr. College Degree by Age 24, by Family Income

Quartile, 1970-2011

19702011

Stratification of Colleges(Sources: College Board)

PublishedTuition &

Fees (“Sticker Prices”)

2012-2013

Percentage of First-Time

Full-time Students

Seeking BA who earn it

within 6 years

Percentage of Students

With Federal Loans, 2007-

2008

Median Student

Debt (among 2007-08

graduates)

Default Rates

Among Borrowers,

after 3 years (2009)

For-Profits $15,172 22% 94% (BA)97% (AS)

$32,700 (BA)$18,800 (AS)

23%

Private Nonprofits

$29,056 65% 69% $17,700 7%

Publics $8,655 (4 yr)$3,131 (2 yr)

(in-state)

55% 58% (BA)33% (AS)

$22,400(BA)$7,100(AS)

8% (BA)18% (AS)

It’s Not All About Tuition• Can’t just blame the colleges/universities• History of government support for higher

education

It’s Not All About Aptitude

Low income Middle income High income0

1020304050607080

38

29

7

21

47

30

51

74

Percentage of Students Who Received 4 Year College Degree or More, by Test Scores and Income, 2000

Low scoreMiddle scoreHigh score

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS: 88/2000), "Fourth Follow-up," unpublished data.

Research Methods

• Analysis of government documents, historical record

• Interviews with policymakers• Statistical analysis of historical data on state

spending and revenues

What Explains It?• POLICYSCAPE– A political terrain that is

densely cluttered with policies created at earlier points in time

– Requires maintenance & updating

• If left untended, problems ensue:

• Policy design effects• Unintended

consequences• Lateral effects

Policy Upkeep Depends on Politics

• To what extent do policymakers manage existing programs?

Contemporary Obstacles:• Polarization• Plutocracy

I. Diminishing Opportunity in Federal Student Aid

Pell Grants Fall Behind and Student Borrowing Soars as Tuition Rises at 4-Yr Public Universities (2010 Dollars)

Sources: U.S. Department of Education; Digest of Educational Statistics; FinAid.org

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

Tuition, 4 Yr Publics, 2010 Dollars Average Pell Grant, 2010 Dollars Avg. Student Loan Debt at Graduation, 2010 $

Aver

age

Pell

Gran

t, Pu

blic

Tuiti

on (2

010

dolla

rs)

Aver

age

Stud

ent L

oan

Debt

(201

0 do

llars

)

Rising Polarization in Congress Demise of Effective Lawmaking for Federal Student Aid

Sources: Voteview.com; authors’ analysis of roll call votes

1941

1943

1945

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2009

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

House, degree of overall partisan polarization (DW-Nominate) Senate, degree of overall partisan polarization (DW-Nominate)

Ideo

logi

cal G

ap B

etw

een

the

Parti

es (D

W-N

omin

ate

Scor

es)

Bars

indi

cate

deg

ree

of p

artis

an p

olar

izatio

n on

spec

ific ’

on

High

er E

d Bi

lls

GI Bill (1944)

NDEA (1958)

HEA (1965)

Pells(1972)

Growing Partisan Gaps in Support for Amendments to Higher Education Laws, 1971-

2008

Source: Author’s analysis of roll call votes on amendments. N=65 in House, 26 in Senate

1971- 1980 1981-94 1995 -20080

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

29 31

60

13

37

51

HouseSenate

Tuition Relief Through the Tax System: Costly Alternatives…With Less Impact• Hope, Lifetime Learning

Tax Credits, 1997

• American Opportunity Tax Credit, 2009– Largest share goes to

families with household incomes between $100,000-$180,000

*Such policies fail to expand access to college. *As of 2013, they cost the U.S. $16.7 billion—44% of the cost of Pell Grants ($38.2 billion).

II. Sinking Support for Public Universities and Colleges

• 73% of American college students attend

• State spending per student declined 26% (real),1990 to 2010

• Tuition rose by 113% (real), 1990 to 2010

• Declining graduation rates

The Unequal Impact of Rising Tuition Costs

Bottom Second Middle Fourth Highest0

20

40

60

80

100

120

42

19 13 10 6

114.258604894647

46.4932367664288

28.609581858697118.7285481379784

8.82171654911788

Fig. 4.1 Percentage of Family Income Required to Pay Cost of Attending Public Four-Year Institutions, by Income Quintile,

1971 and 2011

19712011

Source: Donald E. Heller, "Trends in the Affordabilityof Public Colleges and Universities,"in Donald E. Heller, ed., The States and Public Higher Education, (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press: , 2011), p. 22. Updated with College Board . 2012. "Trends in College Pricing" http://trends.collegeboard.org/college-pricing. U.S. Census Bureau "Table F-3 Mean Income Received by Each Fifth and Top 5 Percent of Families" http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/families/.

Higher Education Squeezed Out As Mandatory Costs Take a Larger Share of State Budgets

Sources: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services; Center for the Study of Education Policy; State and Local Gov’t Finance Data Query System; Urban-Institute Brookings Tax Policy Center; U.S. Census Bureau; Kaiser Family Foundation

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

Tax Revenues

K-12

Medicaid

Higher Ed

Prison

III. Rise of the For-Profit Colleges

For-Profit Colleges: Promoting Opportunity?

• Low graduation rates: 22%• 94% of students borrow for BA degree, and

borrow highest median rates of any sector ($33,000)

• Account for 47 percent of student loan defaults; 23% default within 3 years

Total Enrollment in Degree-granting Postsecondary Institutions by Race and Institution Type, 2012(Source: Digest of Education Statistics)

Private Non-profit Public 4-yr Public 2-yr For-Profit0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

63%61%

54%

47%

12% 11%

15%

29%

8%

12%

20%

15%16% 15%

11%9%

WhiteBlackHispanicOther

Private Sector?Each permitted by law to received up to 90 percent of revenues from Higher Education Act’s Title IV; on average, receive 86 percent.

Attended by 10 percent of students; use $1 in $4 of Higher Education Act’s Title IV, 37% of Post 9/11 GI Bill, and 50% of DOD ed programs.

From Bipartisan Efforts for Reform…(1950s – 1992)

…to Bipartisan Protection of the Industry (1995-present)

• Deregulation:– 85/15 90/10– End of 50% on campus

requirement

• Watering down gainful employment rules

Restoring the Public Purposes of Higher Education