higher education in the 21st century
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Higher Education in the 21st Century. The 21st Century. James L. Morrison Professor of Educational Leadership UNC-Chapel Hill. TODAY. The 21st Century. Environmental Scanning. Broadscale—local through global Comprehensive Social Technological Economic Environmental Political - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Higher Ed in the 21st Century
Higher Education in the 21st Century
James L. MorrisonProfessor of Educational LeadershipUNC-Chapel
Hill
TODAY
The 21st Century
The 21st Century
Environmental Scanning
Broadscalelocal through
globalComprehensiveSocialTechnologicalEconomicEnvironmentalPoliticalContinuous
Strategic Intelligence
Identify signals of changeGather informationEvaluate
informationMake decisions to shape the future
Change Drivers
The Maturation of AmericaThe Mosaic SocietyGlobalizationEconomic
RestructuringThe Information Technology-Based EconomyInformation
Technology
Older Americans to Experience Fastest Growth (1990 to
2000)
Source: US. Bureau of the Census
Sheet:
100+
95 to 99
85 to 94
75 to 84
65 to 74
55 to 64
35 to 54
25 to 34
18 to 24
5 to 17
0 to 4
Distribution of US. Population by Race and Origin
(1900-2050)
Source: Business Horizons
Sheet:
White
Black
Hispanic
Asian & Pacific
American Indian
Immigration
Between 1970 and 2000 New York Citys population will shift from 2/3
white to 1/3In 1970, 5%of U.S. residents born elsewhere; in 1996,
10% Top sources: Mexico, the Philippines, China, Cuba,
India
The Enrollment Pipeline
source:
WICHE
'79
'82
'85
'88
'91
'94
'97
'00
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
We Are Here!
High School Graduates, 1979-2004
(millions of students)
2004
An Aging Clientele for Higher Education
Crisis in College Costs
Per-student costs keep going up ...
Sources: The News & Observer (June 18, 1997, Raleigh, NC) and
RAND for the Council for Aid to Education
Sheet:
'76
'80
'84
'88
'92
'94
Cost per Student
What Students Pay
Government Support per Student
And colleges face a growing shortage of funds.
Sources: The News & Observer (June 18, 1997, Raleigh, NC) and
RAND for the Council for Aid to Education
Crisis in College Costs
Per-student costs keep going up ...
Sheet:
'94
'98
'06
'10
'14
Total operating costs (assuming current growth rates)
School revenue from current sources
Implications
An increasingly diverse societyIncreasing student enrollmentAn
aging student populationConcern about costs/productivity
Economic
GlobalizationEconomic Restructuring
Globalization
Movement of capital, products, technology, information continue at
record paceGlobal economyRegional free tradeMultinational
corporationsEconomic competition
Economic
Continued organizational
downsizingcorporategovernmentaleducationalVirtual
companiesOutsourcingResponsibility-centered managementIncreased
number of home-based businesses
Percent of Firms Downsizing by Business Category
Source: Chicago Tribune, August 21, 1995
Sheet:
1991-92
1993-94
Manufacturing
Financial Services
Wholesale/Retail
Business/Professional Services
Other Services
During the decade of the 80s, 46% of the companies listed in the
Fortune 500 disappeared.
The Department of Labor estimates that by the year 2000 at least
44% of all workers will be in data services (e.g., gathering,
processing, retrieving, or analyzing information).
From 1980 to 1994, the U.S. contingent workforcetemps,
self-employed, consultantsincreased 57%
Fading are the 9-5 workdays, lifetime jobs, predictable,
hierarchical relationships, corporate culture security blankets,
and, for a large and growing sector of the workforce, the workplace
itself (replacedby a cybernetics workspace).
Constant training, retraining, job-hopping, and even
career-hopping will become the norm.
Diplomas decline as degrees of separation in the workforce
USA Today Cover StoryJanuary 3, 1997
Implications
GlobalizationEconomic RestructuringCompetency
AssessmentCertification of Competency
What Lies Ahead in Technology
DiminutionSimulationsVirtual RealityWWWLow-Earth-Orbit Satellites
Web TVNet PCExpert Systems
You dont turn it on. You open it and turn the pages.
The cost of computing power drops roughly 30% every year, and
microchips are doubling in performance power every 18
months.
You give the birthday kid a Saturn, made by Sega, the gamemaker.
It runs on a higher-performance processor than the original 1976
Cray supercomputer.
Todays average consumers wear more computing power on their
wrists than existed in the entire world before 1961.
In 1991, companies spent more money on computing and
communications gear than the combined monies spent on industrial,
mining, farm, and construction equipment.
Today, 65% of all workers use some type of information
technology in their jobs. By 2000, this will increase to
95%.
I very much doubt that were the only family on the block without
a Web page.
New Technologies
Internet Relay ChatsMUSEs (Multiple User Simulated
Environmentsinterprets postscript filesallows telecommuting
co-publishers of a site
Using Technology in the Classroom Rising Use of IT in
Instruction
(percentage of courses)
Using Technology in the Classroom Web Pages
(percentage of courses using WWW resources, 1995-1996)
Signals
Educational courses and programs are being produced by
corporationsCable and phone companies are consolidating to provide
interactive multimedia programming
Signals
A third of Americans have a computer in the home; 40% of these have
modemsAn increasing number of students want and need
non-traditional, flexible schedules
Signals
Certification monopoly at riskemployers concerned about
competencyemployers relying less on diplomasOutcomes assessment
coming on line--Western Governors University
What do these signals imply for effective organization and
functioning of leading edge institutions in the 21st
century?
Signals
Transition from learned infrastructure to learning
infrastructureTransition from distance learning to distributed
learning
Maturation of America. Population, shift from a youth orientation to aging. Political activism pragmatic; workforce growth slows; more mature workers, challenged by technology and changing job conditions. More middle aged will start own firms as opportunities become limited or due to downsizing.The Mosiac Society. diversity, polarized, tense. Women and minorities in multicultural, multilingual workforce; child care, flexible work hours. Minorities seek greater pol influence commensurate with numbers.Redefinition of Individual and societal roles. Shift in responsibility between societal sectors and indiv/org. Ed reform emphasize decentralization of authority (school based mgt); wellness--from problem-based care to personal resp for living right; fiscal resp from fed to states; privatization; greater focus on individual self-sufficiency, less reliance on inst; corporate downsizing& reduction of bureaucracy. Need flexible workforce that can adapt to market influences. Information-based economy. Cont advances in technology; customization; video, audio, and daa transmission with fiber optic phone system. Mobile. Globalization. EU, regional free trade, movement of products, capital, tech, info; migration; prosperity dependent on trade and well-being of other nations; global competition; ldrshp in science and tech det economic leadership.Economic Restructuring. Transformation result of global ec competition, dereg, changing tech, diverse and changing consumer tastes; downsizing accelerated; increase in low skilled jobs, home-based workers, satellite offices.Personal and Environmental Health.
1
2
John Hall, general manager of Quiltiles Scotland ltd, does contract
research for pharmacetical companies. These companies hire him for
their research and development. Company was founded in 1983 by 5
stat folks. Now has 6,400 employees, grown in excess of 50% in last
6 years; profit every year.38% of US households have at least one
person doing income generating work at home.less hierarchy; more
partnering, less capital investment
New management: entrepreneurial units--link expenses and
revenues. Empowerment. Penn, Indiana, Michigan. Called
Responsibility Centered Management., Value Centered
Management.
This was a report of a 1994 American Management Study of 713 major
U.S. Companies.
Over the past five years, 2/3sof US companies haveundergone
downsizing (16.7 milion jobs cut since 1991). American Management
Association annual survey reports that nearly 30% of employers plan
to eliminate jobs this year, the highest percentagein the surveys 8
year history. Typically, the number of firms that actually make
cuts is double the number of those that say they will.Friedman,
Jill. Four Questions to Ask Before Accepting a Buyout. Working
Woman, October 1996, pp 25-26.
Reskilling is become a requirement. By the year 2000, 75% of
thecurrent workforce will need to be retrined just to keep up. Am
Society for Training and Development.
MAC RAMPS UP TO 300-MHZApple has taken the wraps off its new Power
Mac 6500 -- an "entry-level"model boasting the first-ever 300-MHz
PowerPC 603e microprocessor. Othermodels use chips running at 225,
250 and 275 MHz. "We've been lookingforward to these models," says
Mac retailer. The 300-MHz machine will runabout $2,999 and will
come complete with 64 Mbytes of RAM, a 4-Gbyte harddisk and a Zip
drive. (MacWeek 4 Apr 97)
Internet (upper case I) The vast collection of inter-connected
networks that all use the TCP/IP protocols and that evolved from
the ARPANET of the late 60's and early '70s. The Internet now (July
1995) connects roughly 60,000 independent networks into a vast
global internet.BITNET (Because It's Time Network) -- A network of
educational sites separate from the Internet, but e-mail is freely
exchanged between BITNET and the Internet. Listservs, the most
popular form of e-mail discussion groups, originated on BITNET.
BITNET machines are IBM VMS machines, and the network is probably
the only international network that is shrinking.Yellow
Countries--Green Countries--Guatemala, Cuba, Bolivia, ParaguayRed
Countries--Saudi Arabia, Azerbijan?
INTERNET USAGE HAS DOUBLEDA study by CommerceNet and Nielsen Media Research concludes that Internetuse has more than doubled in the last 18 months, from 10% to 23% of allpersons in the U.S. and Canada over age 16. A Nielsen executive says: "Notthat long ago, the people using the Web tended to be a rather homogeneousgroup -- young, upscale and rather well educated. The big gains that we'reseeing now are coming from outside that group." (Washington Post 13 Mar 97)\
NET STATSDid you know that Chrysler expects that 25% of its
sales in 2001 will beconducted online (only 1.5% are online
currently)? Or that the estimatednumber of new jobs worldwide
created in 1996 by the Internet was 1.1million? Or that the
estimated total Internet advertising revenues in 1996were $266.9
million? (Internet Index 16 Apr
97)http://www.openmarket.com/intindex/
VRML--3-D modelingHot Java--animationTelephones
Learning infrastructure: open democratic, use of technology to
extent the boundaries; increase access to our resources, our
instructional resources not just our library resources. Use the
network to deliver instruction to new educational markets,
nontraditional students. People do not have to come to campus to
get an education. Without diminishing quality in the process.
Maintain if not improve quality