higher education: a new model emerges · prepares students for the world of work. we will see a...
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HIGHER EDUCATION: A NEW MODEL EMERGES
2 DAC BEACHCROFT Higher Education: A new model emerges
INTRODUCTION
Purpose, technological impact, the purpose of physical institutions and the student body composition were all changing pre-COVID-19. They are now central pillars for building future success. DACB’s Education team examines these trends in greater detail and their impact on the sector.
“As an overview, the pandemic is putting the current higher education model under significant stress. From this will emerge a more customer focused response, that better prepares students for the world of work. We will see a move away from the degree-only mindset to personalised and life learning; to wider engagement with the business and wider community as establishments address social, economic and cultural change amongst the student body.”
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There is a level of agreement between students, educators and businesses that new entrants to the workplace aren’t ready for their future jobs, and that skills acquisition will need to become on-going. Interestingly, Gen Z sees the responsibility of future skills acquirement resting with educatorsi, in contrast to Millennials’ citation of employers as being primarily responsible. With the gap between the future of work and current education content and delivery widening, an increasing range of companies are ditching the need for degrees. Corporate HR orthodoxy is clearly responding to businesses’ historical complaint of graduates not being ready for the world of work without remedial training. Companies, including Google, Apple, IBM, Costco and Starbucks no longer list a university degree as necessary for potential employeesii. Industry and skills spec apprenticeships have already appeared, and similar models are likely to appear in a wider range of industriesiii.
SKILLS FOR THE FUTURE
With multiple paths opening-up, the value of a degree is being increasingly questioned and learning is becoming ever more decentralised and distinct from a ‘place.’ Degrees will still be sought for prestige, remain as prerequisites for many professions and remain a core part of the educational system, but change will be needed, and not just in terms of relevant knowledge and skills acquisition. 42 percent of graduates say they don’t know how to break into the jobs they wish to doiv. In a world where students will demand more value for money, and many incoming students are likely to already be in work, greater attention needs to be paid to the structural gap between university and work.
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IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY
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Post COVID the concept of learning anywhere, anytime is going to take a greater hold and become a core part of higher education learning. Physical boundaries to human skills delivery and acquisition will further erode as new technologies build upon the basic concept of distance learning.
Some technologies, including distance learning, use technology to replicate existing processes. While not without utility they do not change the fundamentals of what education is. Mixed reality (XR), comprising virtual and augmented realities could change what it is we do.
Early adopters of virtual reality solutions, whether via Oculus type headsets, or even purpose-built rooms, have typically been science and medical departments. Use is likely to spread beyond those fields. XR could ‘...create new learning experiences, test new hypotheses and inspire new modelsv,’ that propel the educational paradigm from an information age to an experiential age and initiate a new post-digital age.
Broad digitisation could allow learners to choose courses more compatible with their learning style and ensuring that ‘…earning a degree will lose importance as the range of credentials widens.’ Certificates from schools, workplaces and industry, will gain in respectability once a new system of accreditation for them is developedvi. Such micro-learning frameworks could be established that capture skills and competences not necessarily implicit in traditional qualificationsvii. Degrees will likely coexist with a range of smaller and standardised attainment units. Skills mapping is likely to appear as a formalised system before a true micro-learning framework appears. In the shorter term, and before a standardised method of assessment emerges, competency based training and education will likely be employed in an effort to craft services more closely aligned with shifting student and even business demands. Increasingly, and as learning becomes personalised, micro-learning networks could start to emerge as potential rivals, or partners, for skills and knowledge acquisition.
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Tens of millions of students in China already use some form of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to learn, whether through extracurricular tutoring programs like Squirrel, or through digital learning platforms like 17ZuoYe. Although widely regarded as an adaptive solution and one that identifies knowledge gaps, rather than a truly personalised solution, applications like Squirrel could further expand their capability. By August 2019, Squirrel had ‘...opened a joint research lab with Carnegie Mellon University to study personalised learning at scale, then export it globallyviii.’ By analysing more metrics than is possible in contemporary education, a combined ‘Internet-of-Things’ and machine learning set-up could allow for ever more personalised and context specific education. With AI potentially delivering educational content at around 4-10 times the current speed, some have suggested that future undergrad courses could be completed in as little as half a yearix.
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THE FUTURE PHYSICAL INSTITUTION
A possible future vision of education is one in which co-location of industry and academia is widespread, featuring more university-based accelerator programs and incubators. Collaborative use of flexible space is likely to feature more prominently as a result, requiring a new approach to physical building design.
A consolidation of the higher education industry has long been expected. Harvard professor Clayton Christensen suggested in 2018 that around half of all U.S universities would go bankrupt in the following ten to fifteen yearsx. COVID induced restructuring and closures seem inevitable, and not just in the U.S. In the UK, 22 universities are dependent on international students to cover over a quarter of overall incomexi, while worst-case scenarios predict universities enduring an 80 percent drop in international students.
The wider impact from the economic and social dimensions of the crisis could see changes to admissions, income and working practices that in turn impact not just how lessons are taught but how higher education is fundedxii. Large student debt for a uncertain future seems even more unsustainable than at present.
Alice Gast, president of Imperial College London, suggests that governments need to stop relying on international student fees to cross-subsidise or underwrite the full costs of academic workxiii. University of Glasgow Vice Chancellor, Anton Muscatelli, believes these new demands ‘...will mean closer working between universities and other education providers, further strengthening links with business, and Universities using their convening power to bring different regional partners togetherxiv.’
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THE STUDENT BODY
Spencer Hawkes, director of special projects at BMI, points to ‘...a clear trend that more Asian students will look to study in Asia. This is happening already,’ with Malaysia, South Korea and Singapore gaining prominencexv.
40 percent of potential international students indicate that they are changing their plansxvi. Absent a sharp V-shaped recovery, demand in the medium-term could be further impacted by an inability of families to pay tuition fees and lingering health concernsxvii.
Given the very real need for continuous learning and new skills acquisition, organisations will have to assess their provision options. One could be to partner with higher education institutions or professional bodies, the output of which could look like an open-ended membership across a career, granting access to a pool of inter-disciplinary learning resources.
In contrast to Gen Z’s preference for educators to lead the way, ‘...more than 50 percent in the United States and Europe combined, agree that companies should take the lead in closing the global skills gap and preparing employees for the future of workxviii.’ Accenture alone spends $1bn training staff in-house, while the Silicon Valley giants spend even morexix. PwC, JPMorgan, Amazon and Walmart, are all
launching upskilling programs to help their employees remain relevant, leading to an expectation that most if not all Fortune 500 companies will have an upskilling program by 2021xx.
Nevertheless, only 31 percent of leaders say they can ‘quickly develop the talent they need with their current resources and processesxxi.’ The market for higher education providers, via some sort of collaboration or as-a-service, of providing educational access for companies would seem significant.
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INGREDIENTS FOR FUTURE SUCCESS
Social, economic, cultural and technological change could have deep-seated implications for universities individual brands as well as what subjects they engage in.
The technology to allow a more disintermediated educational system is already available. With holograms and other mixed reality solutions in the pipeline, it might only be a matter of time before you can access the world’s finest minds on-demand for any given subject via hologram or other interactive technology. For universities and teaching institutions with a clear brand advantage – whether general or in specific subject areas – such platforms could offer a route to leverage that and engage a market that cannot otherwise access the service in ways that current iterations are only hinting at. This may not replace the degree, but could clearly augment it, shape it, or else be used as a basis to establish a range of micro-learning credentials.
Graduates, employers and educators all acknowledge that the education system in its current configuration is not equipping students with the skills they need now, let alone for the future. The problem would appear systemic, rather than with higher education itself, and so requires a systemic response. More collaboration between business, schools, regulators and third parties would appear vital if we are to build the cadre of future skills neededxxii and strengthen universities positions as a gateway to that world.
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REFERENCES
iSource: HR Dive, 2019 https://www.hrdive.com/news/millennials-say-they-lack-the-skills-needed-for-the-future-and-that-
emplo/555074/iiSource: Quartz, 2019 https://qz.com/work/1367191/apple-ibm-and-google-dont-require-a-college-degree/iiiSource: Fast Company, 2020 https://www.fastcompany.com/90450507/will-a-college-education-be-necessary-in-2040ivSource: CNBC, 2019 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/31/apprenticeships-are-best-way-to-solve-skills-gap-says-accenture.
htmlvSource: EdTech Magazine, 2020 https://edtechmagazine.com/higher/article/2020/02/virtual-reality-advances-bring-new-
possibilities-higher-educationvihttps://www.ollivier-dyens.com/terreur/2018/2/24/future-perfect-what-will-universities-look-like-in-2030viiSource: Business Insider, 2016 http://www.businessinsider.com/futurist-predicts-online-school-largest-online-
company-2016-12 viiiSource: MIT Technology Review, 2019 https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/08/02/131198/china-squirrel-has-started-
a-grand-experiment-in-ai-education-it-could-reshape-how-the/ixSource: WEF, 2017 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/the-largest-internet-company-in-2030-this-prediction-will-
probably-surprise-you xSource: CNBC, 2018 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/30/hbs-prof-says-half-of-us-colleges-will-be-bankrupt-in-10-to-15-
years.htmlxiSource: TheTab, 2020 https://thetab.com/uk/2020/04/06/unis-could-go-bust-if-coronavirus-keeps-international-students-
away-experts-warn-151114xiiSource: Financial Times, 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/0ae1c300-7fee-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99axiiiSource: Financial Times, 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/0ae1c300-7fee-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99axivSource: University of Glasgow VC https://twitter.com/UofGVC/status/1253233125364203521xvSource: University World News, 2020 https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20200324065639773xviSource: University World News, 2020 https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20200414082756282xviiSource: Financial Times, 2020 https://www.ft.com/content/0ae1c300-7fee-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99axviiiSource: McKinsey, 2020 https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/getting-practical-about-
the-future-of-workxixSource: Economist, 2019 https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/10/31/the-future-of-management-educationxxSource: Quartz, 2019 https://qz.com/work/1764033/what-to-ask-from-your-employer-on-upskilling-and-reskilling/xxiSource: AIThority, citing Gartner, 2019 https://www.aithority.com/hrtechnology/gartner-says-only-29-of-functional-leaders-
believe-they-have-the-right-talent-to-meet-current-performance-needs/xxiiSource: strategy+business, 2018 https://www.strategy-business.com/blog/Closing-the-Skills-Gap-Could-Be-as-Simple-as-
ABC?gko=93f90&sf202603033=1
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