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High School Graduation in Texas Independent Research to Understand and Combat the Graduation Crisis

Editorial Projects in Education Research Center

Christopher B. Swanson Director Editorial Projects in Education Research Center

October 2006

The Graduation Crisis in Texas October 2006

Editorial Projects in Education Research Center 1

Over 120,000 Students in Texas Failed to Graduate in 2006, Most were Minorities

Analyses from the Editorial Projects in Education Research Center estimate that over 120,000 public high school students in the state of Texas failed to graduate with a regular diploma last school year. To put this crisis in perspective, the number of non-graduates is about double the combined number of students entering 9th grade in the state’s seven largest school districts. Seventy percent of all non-graduates were members of minority racial and ethnic groups, indicating that minority students are disproportionately affected by this graduation crisis. Graduation rates for the 2002-03 school year show that only about two-thirds of all public school students in Texas complete high school with a standard diploma. Texas falls below the national graduation rate of 69.6 percent and ranks 35th among the states. Analyses reveal large disparities in high school completion across different student groups. Fewer than 60 percent of black and Hispanic students graduate with a diploma, compared to over three quarters of whites and Asians. Statistics were calculated by the EPE Research Center using a method known as the Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI). Male students are also consistently less likely to graduate, with female students enjoying a graduation advantage of over 8 percentage points. Gender gaps exist for all racial and ethnic categories, with the largest difference (13 percentage points) found among black students. Hispanic males are the lowest-performing group, graduating at a rate of less than 53 percent.

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Texas Graduation Rates 2002-03

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71.0

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The Gender Gap in Graduation

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Graduation Rates Show Improvement over Past Decade

High school graduation rates in Texas have gradually improved over the course of the past decade. This trend closely parallels patterns found for the nation as a whole. Between 1994 and 2003, the state’s graduation rate increased by almost 11 percentage points (from 56.0 to 66.8 percent). Initially around 55 percent in the early 1990s, the graduation rate in Texas rose to about 60 percent before stagnating during the latter part of the decade. Since 1999, graduation rates have generally been on the rise, although there are signs that improvements have leveled off in the most recent years for which data are available. The proportion of students graduating from public high schools with a diploma has risen across all racial and ethnic groups. As a result, disparities in graduation between whites and historically-disadvantaged minorities remain substantial (17 and 15 points for Hispanics and blacks respectively), despite some narrowing of the gap.

Texas 10-Year Trend in Graduation Rates (CPI)

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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

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%)

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Asian

All Students

Hispanic

Black

For more information on the Cumulative Promotion Index method used in this report, see page 6.



Official State Statistics Inflate Graduation Rates

In analyses conducted for the 2006 Diplomas Count report, the EPE Research Center calculated 2002-03 graduation rates for each state using the Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI). Official statistics released by the states for that same year were almost always higher, sometimes much higher. In North Carolina and New Mexico, for example, state-reported rates exceeded the CPI by over 30 percentage points. As reported in Diplomas Count, a major reason for these discrepancies is the wide variety of methods the states use to calculate their own graduation rates. The Texas Education Agency (TEA) reports that 84.2 percent of all students in the high school class of 2003 graduated. That rate is 17 percentage points higher than our estimate using the CPI, suggesting that rates are more inflated in Texas than in most states. The average state overestimated its graduation rate by about 12 percent relative to the CPI.

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State-reported (TEA) CPI Method

In the Eye of the Beholder: TEA vs. CPI Graduation Rates 2002-03

Texas Rate Inflation More Extreme for Minorities and Large Urban Districts Graduation-rate inflation in Texas appears to be a very widespread phenomenon. It is found for the state’s overall graduation rate and when we examine rates for specific racial and ethnic groups. In fact, this overestimation is more extreme among historically-disadvantaged minority groups. Official graduation rates for black and Hispanic students are overestimated by 20 percentage points or more, relative to CPI estimates. By comparison, rates are inflated by 15 points for whites. TEA-reported figures are also higher than CPI rates for each of the state’s 10 largest school districts, although the size of the discrepancies vary considerably. The official TEA graduation rate for the Dallas ISD is 35 percentage points higher than the CPI rate, with a 28-point difference found for the Fort Worth ISD. District context also appears to matter greatly, with official rates inflated to a larger degree in highly-disadvantaged communities. For example, we find an overestimate of 22 percentage points for the Houston ISD but only 9 points for the more affluent Cypress-Fairbanks district in suburban Houston.

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Fairbanks

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Antonio

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State-reported (TEA) CPI Method

Texas' 10 Largest Districts: TEA-Reported vs. CPI Graduation Rates, 2002-03

Source for TEA Rates The TEA graduation rates appearing in this report were obtained from final state and district Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) data tables posted on the state agency’s website:

www.tea.state.tx.us/ayp/2004 The TEA also releases an annual report on dropout and completion rates in the state, which includes statewide analysis and detailed reporting for individual districts and campuses. That information is also accessible online:

www.tea.state.tx.us/research



Leaks in the High School Pipeline

The Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) method for calculating graduation rates can be used to examine the high school pipeline. Specifically, we can estimate the numbers of students who fall off track for earning a diploma at various points between the 9th grade and the expected time of graduation. For every 100 students enrolled in 9th grade in the Texas public schools, we find that 84 will remain in the high school pipeline until at least their sophomore year. But only 67 will make it until graduation four years later.

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9th grade 10th grade 11th grade 12th grade Graduation

Students in the Texas High School Pipeline(starting with 100 students in the 9th grade)

The Freshman Blues – 9th Grade the Leading Source of Loss Another way to examine loss or leakage from the high school pipeline is to examine the rates at which students are lost from one grade level to the next. Nationally, we find that just over one third (35 percent) of the students lost from the pipeline fail to make the transition from 9th to 10th grade. However, the rate of 9th grade loss is much higher in Texas than in most states, with half of all Texas non-graduates lost during the freshman year.

11th grade

18%

9th grade

50%

12th grade

5%

10th grade

27%

TexasPercent of loss

by grade

10th grade

28%

12th grade

17%

9th grade

35%

11th grade

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U.S. AveragePercent of loss

by grade

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FL

Percent of Students

Lost at 9th Grade



Growing Diversity and Increasing Segregation in Texas

For over a decade, Texas has been a majority minority state. That is, non-white students make up more than half of student enrollment in the state’s public school system. Over time, this trend has continued as the state becomes even more diverse. Between 1994 and 2003, minority enrollment increased from 53 to 61 percent. During the same period, however, the degree of isolation between racial and ethnic minorities and their white peers has also increased at a similar rate. So, as the state has become more diverse it has also become more segregated. This trend is particularly troubling because the levels of racial isolation experienced by minority students in Texas are already considerably higher than for the nation as a whole. On a scale of 0 to 1, Texas public schools receive an isolation rating of .76 compared to the national average of .69. In addition, the degree of racial isolation experienced by the average student (including both minorities and whites) reaches extremely high levels in the state’s largest districts.

Trends in Minority Student Enrollment and Segregation - Texas

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Texas Avg.

U.S. Avg.

Racial Segregation level (scale 0-1)

Racial Segregation Levels (All Students)

Links between Segregation and High School Graduation The racial and socioeconomic composition of school systems are strongly related to graduation rates. Texas districts with high levels of racial isolation have graduation rates about 13 percentage points lower than school systems with lesser degrees of segregation. A very similar pattern of disparities emerges when we examine the relationship between the concentration of poverty (economic segregation) and graduation rates. In this study, racial segregation is measured using an isolation index. This indicator reflects the extent to which members of racial and ethnic minority groups attend school in isolation from their white peers. In a district with a high level of racial segregation, minority children are twice as likely to attend school with other minority students than with whites. Levels of economic segregation are measured in a similar manner, using eligibility for free or reduced-price lunch as a proxy for poverty.

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Racial Segregation Economic Segregation



Houston ISD

Cypress-Fairbanks ISD

Fort Bend ISD

Mapping Graduation Rates2002-03 CPIGraduation Rate (%)

90 - 100 %

80 - 90 %

70 - 80 %

60 - 70 %

50 - 60 %

< 50 %

Dallas ISD

Fort Worth ISDArlington ISD

San Antonio

Austin ISD

Northside ISD

Dallas-Fort WorthHouston

Austin andSan Antonio

Create your own maps and downloada summary report for any district in the nation at: www.edweek.org/rc



How does the EPE Research Center calculate graduation rates?

In this report, the Editorial Projects in Education Research Center uses the Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI) method to calculate graduation rates. The CPI represents graduating from high school as a process rather than a single event. Specifically, it captures the four key steps a student must take in order to graduate: three grade-to-grade promotions (9 to 10, 10 to 11, and 11 to 12) and ultimately earning a diploma (grade 12 to graduation). The formula below illustrates the CPI formula for calculating graduation rates. The class of 2002-03, the most recent year of data available, is used as an example.

10th graders, fall 2003 11th graders, fall 2003 12th graders, fall 2003 Diploma recipients, spring 2003 CPI =

9th graders, fall 2002 X



12th graders, fall 2002

By multiplying grade-specific promotion ratios together, the CPI estimates the likelihood that a 9th grader will complete high school on time with a regular diploma, given the schooling conditions prevailing during a particular school year. The CPI counts only students receiving standard high school diplomas as graduates, following the definition of a graduate adopted by the No Child Left Behind Act. We can use a simplified example to further demonstrate the way we calculate the CPI. Let us suppose that a particular school district currently has 100 students enrolled in each grade from 9 through 12. We will also assume that 5 percent of students currently in grades 9, 10, and 11 will drop out of school this year and that 5 percent of seniors will fail to earn a diploma at the end of the year. So, for example, we would count 100 9th graders at our starting point but only 95 10th graders the following fall.

95 95 95 95 CPI = 100

X 100

X 100

X 100

= .815

Carrying out the calculation (shown above), we arrive at a graduation rate of 81.5 percent for this district. Given conditions in this hypothetical district (an effective 5 percent annual attrition rate for students at each grade level), only about 82 out of every 100 9th graders would be expected to finish high school with a diploma. The CPI can be calculated for public school districts that have students enrolled in the secondary grades (9 through 12). State and national statistics are generated by aggregating the district-level data upward.

Notes on Our Methodology Graduation rates and other indictors presented in this report are created using data from the Common Core of Data (CCD). The CCD is an annual census of public schools and school districts in the United States conducted by the U.S. Department of Education. Detailed methodological descriptions of the CCD can be found in technical documentation published by the National Center for Education Statistics (available online at nces.ed.gov/ccd). Our goal is to provide a direct measure of the graduation rate for each of the roughly 11,000 school districts in the nation that enroll high school students. We were able to do this for districts serving the vast majority (93 percent) of all public school students nationwide. But in a small number of cases – for example, if a particular piece of information needed to calculate the CPI indicator was missing – we could not directly compute the graduation rate. To avoid unintentional disclosure of information about individual students, we do not report results for very small demographic subgroups, those with fewer than five students in a given category.



Facts and Figures

United States Student Composition

(%) Segregation Levels

(scale 0-1) High School Graduation Rates

CPI Method 2002-03

Enrollment 46,993,268 Minority 40.6 All Students 69.6 Native Am. 47.4 Eng. Lang. Learner 9.2 Racial .43 Asian 77.0 Schools 92,253 Free/Red. Lunch 38.7 Male 65.2 Hispanic 55.6 Special Ed. 13.2 Economic .43 Black 51.6 Female 72.7 White 76.2

Texas Student Composition



CPI Method 2002-03

Enrollment 4,201,792 Minority 60.3 All Students 66.8 Native Am. --- Eng. Lang. Learner 14.8 Racial .61 Asian --- Schools 7,809 Free/Red. Lunch 46.0 Male 65.2 Hispanic 83.1 Special Ed. 11.7 Economic .53 Black 57.8 Female 72.7 White 59.9

Houston ISD Student Composition



CPI Method 2002-03

Enrollment 212,099 Minority 90.7 All Students 48.9 Native Am. --- Eng. Lang. Learner 28.5 Racial .93 Asian 80.9 Schools 308 Free/Red. Lunch 72.5 Male 43.1 Hispanic 43.3 Special Ed. 9.9 Economic .81 Black 48.7 Locale Urban Female 55.0 White 69.0

Dallas ISD Student Composition



CPI Method 2002-03

Enrollment 163,347 Minority 93.3 All Students 46.3 Native Am. 33.5

Eng. Lang. Learner 32.0 Racial .95 Asian 60.2

Schools 228 Free/Red. Lunch 75.9 Male 40.4 Hispanic 43.6

Special Ed. 7.9 Economic .80 Black 48.6 Locale Urban Female 53.0 White 54.5

Fort Worth ISD Student Composition



CPI Method 2002-03

Enrollment 81,081 Minority 81.2 All Students 48.9 Native Am. ---


Schools 146 Free/Red. Lunch 64.2 Male 43.1 Hispanic 45.7 Special Ed. 9.8 Economic .74 Black 45.5

Locale Urban Female 54.9 White 59.4

Austin ISD Student Composition



CPI Method 2002-03



Schools 111 Free/Red. Lunch 52.9 Male 49.4 Hispanic 42.8 Special Ed. 12.1 Economic .72 Black 44.7




Cypress-Fairbanks ISD Student Composition



CPI Method 2002-03




Special Ed. 9.7 Economic .35 Black 80.6

Locale Suburban Female 85.1 White 82.8

Northside ISD Student Composition



CPI Method 2002-03






El Paso ISD Student Composition



CPI Method 2002-03






Arlington ISD Student Composition



CPI Method 2002-03

Enrollment 61,928 Minority 58.1 All Students 61.7 Native Am. 43.1





Fort Bend ISD Student Composition



CPI Method 2002-03






San Antonio ISD Student Composition



CPI Method 2002-03


Eng. Lang. Learner 19.0 Racial .96 Asian ---




EDITORIAL PROJECTS IN EDUCATION RESEARCH CENTER

www.edweek.org/rc

Director, EPE RESEARCH CENTER

Christopher B. Swanson

Assistant Director

Carole Vinograd Bausell

Research Associates

Janelle Barlage Elizabeth Klemick Sterling C. Lloyd Patrick Miller Hajime Mitani

EPE LIBRARY

Library Director

Kathryn Dorko

Librarian

Rachael Holovach

Also from EPE Diplomas Count An Essential Guide to Graduation Policy and Rates

This June 2006 report provides detailed data on high school graduation rates at the national, state, and district levels. The report also examines how states calculate graduation rates, tracks state policies related to high school graduation requirements, and explores ways in which states and districts might improve graduation rates based on research.

Visit Diplomas Count online at www.edweek.org/dc06

About Editorial Projects in Education

Editorial Projects in Education (EPE) is a nonprofit, tax-exempt organization based in Bethesda, Md. Our primary mission is to help raise the level of awareness and understanding among professionals and the public of important issues in American education. We cover local, state, national, and international news and issues from preschool through the 12th grade. Editorial Projects in Education Inc. publishes Education Week, America’s newspaper of record for precollegiate education, Teacher Magazine, edweek.org, and the Agent K-12 employment resource. We also produce periodic special reports on issues ranging from technology to textbooks, as well as books of special interest to educators. The EPE Research Center conducts annual policy surveys, collects data, and performs analyses that appear in the Quality Counts, Technology Counts, and Diplomas Count annual reports. The center also produces independent research reports and contributes original data and analysis to special coverage in Education Week, Teacher Magazine, and edweek.org.

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