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Dokumentname > 23.11.2004

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high RES penetration scenarios – case studies for Germany and Europe - Middle East/North Africa

Wolfram KrewittDLR

Institute of Technical ThermodynamicsSystems Analysis and Technology Assessment

Stuttgart

EMF WorkshopModeling Renewable Energy Technologies in IAMs

August 5, 2009



global renewable energy potential >> energy demand

global primary energy demand 2006 (492 EJ)

solar irradiation

wind

1

1 800

20020 10

2 1

3,7 0,4 0,3 0,7 0,1 0,15

physical potential

technicalpotential



critical issues related to high RES shares

availability of renewable energy resources

match load and supply

compliance with nature conservation and sustainability criteria



case study I: the German ‘Lead Study 2008’ – Strategy to increase the use of renewables in Germany’

Policy targets:

CO2 reduction: 40% by 2020, 80% by 2050 (compared to 1990)

increase energy productivity by 3% per year until 2020

renewable energies:

- electricity: 30% by 2020

- heat: 14% by 2020

- primary energy demand: 50% by 2050

phase out of nuclear electricity generation by 2022



renewable electricity potential in Germany

winter week January 2006

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

480 500 520 540 560 580 600 620 640

summer week June 2006

177 4197 4217 4237 4257 4277 4297 4317 4337 hour

CSP

PV

Wind offshore

Wind onshore

biogas

biomass solid

hydro reservoir

hydro run-of-river

Geothermal CHP

Geothermal

load

MW

Source: REMix Model, DLR



wind energy potential under nature conservation constraints(Baden-Württemberg, Southern Germany)m/swind speed

road networknature protection areas

landscape conservation areaforests

biotopesagricultural areas

visual sensitivity...



•German load curve scaled down by 1:10,000• full supply by wind, PV,

biogas and pump storage

renewable combi-plant



renewable combi-plant

electricity mix 2006 in MWh

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

ImporthydrobiogasPVwind



electricity generation in the German ‘Lead Study’

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Import RESPVGeothermalWindHydroBiomassCHP coal, gasGas & oil (cond.)Lignite (cond.)Coal (cond.)Nuclear

gros

s el

ectr

icity

gen

erat

ion

in T

Wh/

a

85% renewables



German ‘Lead Study 2008’ – differential costs of RES exploitation

2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

cum

ulat

ed d

iffer

entia

l cos

ts, b

illio

n € 2

005

PV

electricityexcl. PV

heat

fuels

-270

+55+66

- 57

heat -112elect. - 148



case study II: Sustainable Electricity and Water for Europe, Middle East and North Africa

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

MED-CSPMED-CSP

AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSPsource: Trieb et al.www.dlr.de/tt/med-cspwww.dlr.de/tt/trans-cspwww.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp



solar resources in the Middle East/North Africa region

a solar thermal power plant of the size of Lake Nasser (Aswan) could harvest energy equivalent to the annual oil production of the Middle East



concentrating solar thermal power plant with heat storage

ENERGIE-SPEICHER

(optional)

KONZENTRIERENDER

SONNENKOLLEKTOR

WÄRMEKRAFT-MASCHINE

(fuel)

solarheat

electricity

thermalstorage

collector field

power blockheat

Andasol 1 (50 MW), Spain: 7 full load hours thermal storage dispatchable solar bulk power

And

asol

1, u

nder

con

stru

ctio

n



Gross Electricity Demand in Middle East and North Africa (source: DLR MED-CSP)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Gro

ss E

lect

rici

ty C

onsu

mpt

ion

[TW

h/y]

Diff.to Trend

Morocco

Algeria

Tunisia

Libya

Egypt

Yemen

UAE

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Kuwait

Bahrain

Oman

Syria

Lebanon

Jordan

Israel

Iraq

Iran



Electricity Supply in the Middle East & North Africa



CO2 emissions from the EUMENA power sector(source: DLR TRANS-CSP)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

CO

2-Em

issi

ons

in M

t/y

AvoidedImport SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerWave / TidalBiomassCSP PlantsOil / GasCoalNuclear



Trans-European High Voltage Direct Current Electricity Grid

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Geothermal

HV-DC lines

Biomass



Munich, July 13, 2009

Assembly of Desertec Industrial Initiative

On July, 13 a group of European companies and the DESERTEC Foundation have signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the aim to put the DESERTEC Concept into effect in the EUMENA Region.

source: DESERTEC Foundation / www.desertec.org



discussion

significant reduction of energy related CO2 emissions (~ 80%) in Europe is achievable without relying on nuclear and CCS

exploitation of renewable energies needs to go along with structural and institutional adaptation of the supply system

renewable energies are often not well represented in state-of-the-art energy system models:

- renewable energy potentials are not fully used- often implicit and artificial constraints to address problem of

integrating fluctuating RES sources

new model developments are on the way to support better representation of renewables



case study III: Energy [R]evolution – a sustainable global energy outlook

DLR/Ecofyson behalf of and in cooperation with

Greenpeace InternationalEuropean Renewable Energy Council



Energy [R]evolution - approach

target oriented scenario: energy related global CO2 in 2050: ~ 10 Gt/a global phase out of nuclear energy economic growth according to IEA assumptions

scenario building 10 world regions (according to IEA regions) (+ ~ 30 country scenarios) review of regional data (demand/supply structure, efficiency potential,

RES potential, policy targets, etc.) stakeholder workshop with representatives from each world region

(industry/academia/NGO)



China India LatinAmerica

Africa MiddleEast

OECD Europe

OECDN America

OECDPacific

Other Dev.Asia

Trans.Econom.

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%20

05

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

global final energy demand – business-as-usual

Presenter

Presentation Notes

in einem Business-as-usual Szenario nimmt der Endenergiebedarf insbesondere in den ‘emerging market’ Regionen stark zu, insbesondere in China, Indien.



0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%20

05

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

2005

2050

Total / remaining energy demand Transport Industry Other

China India LatinAmerica

Africa MiddleEast

OECD Europe

OECDN America

OECDPacific

Other Dev.Asia

Trans.Econom.

energy efficiency potentials – Energy [R]evolution scenario

Presenter

Presentation Notes

durch Ausschöpfen der Efizienzpotenziale kann das Wachstum des Energiebedarfs gebremst werden. Im Energy [R]evolution Szenario wurden Effizienzpotenziale in den Sektoren Industrie, Verkehr und ‘Andere’ (Haushalte, Gewerbe, Landwirtschaft) in den Weltregionen untersucht. Es gibt deutliche Einsparpotenziale, in den OECD-Regionen kann der Endenergiebedarf gegenüber dem heutigen Energieverbrauch reduziert werden.



electricity generation - Energy [R]evolution scenario

OECD Europe China



global electricity generation – Energy [R]evolution scenario

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EfficiencyOcean EnergySolar ThermalPVGeothermalWindHydroBiomassGas&oilCoalNuclear

TWh/

a

77% RES share



Energy [R]evolution – ‘CO2 balance’ in 2050(assumption: per capita emission rights of 1 tCO2 per year)

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