high potential oil & gas exploration and production in poland prep: june 27, 2005; print: may...
TRANSCRIPT
High Potential Oil & Gas Exploration and Production in Poland
Prep: June 27, 2005; Print: April 18, 2023
This report contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future drilling or other exploration or development results, the actual presence or recoverability of estimated reserves, the ability to establish reserves equal to the potential of exploration targets, production amounts or revenues, the availability of required additional funding, construction costs or schedules or similar matters. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties outside FX Energy's control. Actual events or results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of additional contingencies and uncertainties to which information respecting future events is subject, see FX Energy's 2004 annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC reports. As used herein “bcf” means billion cubic feet and “tcf” means trillion cubic feet of gas standardized for calorific content and liquids.
IPAA Oil and Gas Investment SymposiumLondon – July 7, 2005
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BALTIC SEARUSSIA
CZECH REP.
UKRAINE
LITHUANIA
SLOVAKIA
50 KM50 MILES
BORNHOLM(DENMARK)
SWEDEN
GE
RM
AN
Y
GE
RM
AN
Y
Oil FieldGas Field
LEGEND
Polish Oil and Gas CompanyFX Energy
FX-Fences III
FX-Fences I
FX-Fences II
FX and POGC concessions - 2005
FX-Block255/Wilga
Two million acres in productive areas
FX business model fits Poland’s needs
• Poland wanted western exploration, offered wildcat land and data to FX
• FX brought more than $100 million to Poland, including farmouts with RWE-DEA, Apache, Homestake, CalEnergy
• over time, FX built a relationship of trust with Poland
The prize for FX’s persistence: a big share in POGC’s Permian acreage – largely unexplored Rotliegend sands
• by the mid-1980’s POGC had discovered 5 Tcf in Rotliegend sands without modern geophysics
• POGC moved to other horizons with easier geophysics, leaving Rotliegend untouched for 20 years (while SNS grew to 40 Tcf)
• FX has drawn on 20 years of technical progress in the Southern North Sea – geophysics that apply directly to Polish Rotliegend
FX Energy
• 1980’s: U.S. Rocky Mountain producer/driller/explorer
• business model: farmout to industry partners
• 1994: FX’s geophysicist suggests Poland
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FX Polish asset: Rotliegend acreage20% of Poland’s Prime Permian Acreage: 2600 square miles
FX Landholdings
million acres km2 FX netgross net gross interest
Fences I: 0.22 0.11 891 49%
0.05 0.01 183 24.5%
Fences II: 0.67 0.33 2,715 49%
Fences III: 0.77 0.77 3,122 100%
Wilga/255: 0.22 0.19 912 82%
1.93 1.41 7,823
Fences II
Fences III
Rusocin discovery (2005)
Ujazd 100 bcf
Paproc 350++ bcf
Fences IRadlin 525 bcf
Sroda discovery (2005)
130 km
Zaniemysl discovery (2004)
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SNS Basin 40 Tcf 5 Tcf
Groningen100 Tcf
FX Interests
UK
Poland’s Rotliegend basin was underdeveloped for 40 yearscompared to Southern North Sea analog
A fairway of aeolian Rotliegend sandstone reservoirs, with structural and stratigraphic traps, and gas sourced by Carboniferous coals and sealed by Zechstein evaporites, extends across the North European Basin
Producing Rotliegend gas fields in Poland are direct analogs to those found in the UK Southern North Sea (“SNS”) and onshore in Holland
FX’s 1.7 million gross acres in Poland’s Permian basin are comparable to about 20% of the productive area in the 40 Tcf SNS, or about 8 Tcf potential
Comparable land in the US would be valued at more than $200/acre, or about $300 million for FX’s 1.4 million net acres in Poland
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Radlin Field
Zaniemysl
Rusocin
Sroda
Discoveries confirm expectations
FX’s last three wells all successful – all based on best geophysical methods
• 2005: FX Sroda discovery has reserves and production potential comparable to POGC’s 525 Bcf Radlin gas field
• 2005: FX Rusocin discovery confirms “pinch-out” stratigraphic trap model based on 350+ Bcf Paproc gas field
Production increases along with reserves
• four commercial wells drilled and tested
• significant production and revenue coming onstream
Sroda and Rusocin discoveries confirm areas of significant reserve potential
• Sroda area should yield several Radlin sized fields – potential 1+ Tcf
• Rusocin could lead to multiple fields along “pinch-out” trend – potential 1+ Tcf
Other prospects will emerge as geophysical work continues
• east half of Fences I/II
• Fences III and Wilga
• other opportunities with POGC
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BALTIC SEA RUSSIA
CZECH REP.
UKRAINE
LITHUANIA
SLOVAKIA
50 KM50 MILES
BORNHOLM(DENMARK)
SWEDEN
GE
RM
AN
Y
GE
RM
AN
Y
KRAKOW
W O L O M IN
Refinery
Gas Pipeline
Oil Pipeline
POGC Concession
Outstanding fiscal regime
• no government back-in
• 2% royalty
• 19% net income tax
• tax and royalty rates have been reduced over time
Established E&P infrastructure
• World Bank loan upgraded rigs, seismic, etc.
• standard oilfield services available
• established pipeline infrastructure
Attractive E&P conditionsAccess to existing pipelines
Poland energy facts
• coal/lignite provide 97% of electricity
• gas is 10% of energy mix vs. 21% European average
• per capita energy use in Poland is 67% of western Europe
• Poland imports 2/3 of gas needs from Russia: 650 mmcf/day
• pent up industrial demand for gas unlinked to oil price
7
Radlin Field
Sroda discovery
Sroda area
Sroda area potential 1+ Tcf; FX holds 49%
?
Successful drilling with good geophysics
• 2005: FX Sroda 4 discovery opens the door to near term reserve potential comparable to POGC’s Radlin field (525 bcf)
• Sroda-5 well and possibly Sroda-6 or Winna Gora to drill in 2005; additional seismic also in 2005
• expect to firm up additional prospects to southeast, toward Radlin field
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Sroda discovery analog: Radlin gas field (POGC)
Radlin Field depth map
• Top Rotliegendes 3078 meters
• 525 bcf cumulative recoverable reserves
• area=15km2; porosity=17-25%; perm=185mD; CH4=84.1%; N2=15.6%; He=0.14%; H2S=n/a; gas column=55 meters max; 32 meters avg.
• 16 mmcf/day avg. well deliverability
• 30-35 mmcf/day avg. daily field production from 33 wells (per POGC policy for security of supply)
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40 to 400 bcf potential
Sroda-4: a key discovery
Fences II: Sroda Field Discovery• Sroda-4: 33 meter gas column at 3600m depth
• over 20% average porosity
• Sroda field potential: up to 400 bcf
• Discovery reduces risk in a series of similar structures on trend
• play concept based on Radlin (525 bcf)
• interests: FX 49%; POGC 51%
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Proposed 3-D
Sroda
Sroda N.E.
Sroda area: initial objectives
Sroda/Sroda NE/Sroda SE/Winna Gora
• drill Sroda-5 and possibly another in 2005
• acquire new seismic on Sroda, Sroda NE, Sroda SE and Winna Gora
• drill Sroda NE; drill Sroda SE; drill Winna Gora; then appraisal wells on each; look for 1+ Tcf from the group
• start producing in 2007, even if full development of the fields takes longer
• expect to add structures similar to Sroda along trend to the southeast toward Radlin gas field
SRODA-NE
X Sroda well
SRODA
Sroda SE
11
1250mSroda
SW NE
Sroda NE
Dep
th.
mSroda-4 discovery well locationLine #T0440593 Pre Stack Depth Migration
Sroda-4
Rotliegend sandstone reservoir
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RoszkowSroda N.E.
Mieczewo
Winna Gora
Radlin
Zaniemysl
Srem Komorze
248 Area 1
248 Area 2
248 Area 3
Grundy
Lubinia
KotlinWolsztyn High
Deep Basin
(source area)
SrodaSroda SE
X LugiPinch-out area
Rusocin
DrzonekDolsk
Donatowo
Stable Platform
Polwica
Significant potential – four different plays
?
Stable Platform – structural traps• Sroda cluster may continue along trend to
southeast toward and beyond Radlin field• other leads and prospects already identified:
Mieczewo, Srem, Roszkow• east half of Fences I/II are still early stage
Deep basin
• gas has been discovered downdip from Grundy, but reservoir quality was poor
Pinch-out area – stratigraphic traps
• Rusocin pins the pinch-out play on the downdip side – Lugi, Drzonek and Dolsk will test updip
• Pinch-out play may reappear in the southeast of Fences I/II
Reef play
• Zechstein has been a successful play for POGC northwest of Fences I/II (BMB, Lubiatow) - both oil and gas
• Fences I/II show indications of reef play potential
Fences III, Wilga, other exploration opportunities
• exploration can increase in tandem with production and cash flow
Reef area
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X drillsite Lugi
RusocinDrzonek
Dolsk
Possible gas/water contact
Possible pinch-out
Rusocin discovery confirms pinch-out play
Rusocin well data• Net pay: 8.5 meters
• Gas saturation: 50%
• Flow potential: 28 mmcfg/d
• Porosity: 21.5%
• Interests: FX 49%; POGC 51%
Lugi is 100 meters high to Rusocin
Rusocin to Lugi potential 1+ TCF
Lugi to drill in 2005; 9 km stepout
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FENCES I
FENCES III
FENCES II
BMB: est. 75 mmbo + 350 bcf (1993)
Lubiatow complex: est. 150 mmbo + 700bcf (2003)
POGC focus: Zechstein reefs(major successes at BMB and Lubiatow)
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Fences I and 248 Palaeohighs – Ca2 build upsPseudo-palaeohigh map at base Zechstein – generated from Zsp-Tp2 TWT
Area of Ca2 >45m
Area 2 is located on a spur of increased Ca2 thickness into the deeper Zechstein sea
Edge of Ca2 build up
Deep Zechstein sea
Shallow Zechstein barrier build-up
NB Artefact generated by
Triassic grabens
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Prospects and Leads Identified - to Date Fences I/II Gas Potential (Bcf)Estimated Upside Potential:
Structural Traps
Sroda 400
Sroda NE 500
Winna Gora 200
Sroda SE 500
Polwica 750
Srem/Mechlin 75
Roszkow 125
248 Area 1 500
248 Area 3 200
Other
Structural Total 3245
Estimated Upside Potential: Stratigraphic Traps
Dolsk 170
Drzonek 350
Rusocin East 500
Lugi 750
248 Area 2 (Rotl) 300
Other
Stratigraphic Total 2070
Estimated Upside Potential: Reefs
Donatowo
Area 2 (Ca2)
Other
Reef Total
• 5.3 tcf represents estimated unrisked maximum potential• covers only certain named leads and prospects identified to date• FX interest is 49%
Estimated Upside Potential: Deep Basin Traps
Grundy
Other
Deep Basin Total
Prospect/Lead Inventory is Building• Sroda and Rusocin increase success odds and begin to frame values on structural and stratigraphic plays• work continues to identify more prospects and leads for these two play-types• work on two other play types (deep basin and reef) now in early stages – prospects and leads to come• Fences III area: first pass seismic reprocessing just completed – prospects and leads to come
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Reserves and Revenues: beginning
Gas pricing• German border gas price (1Q05) $5.25 per mmbtu• Polish border gas price (Russian gas) $5.00 per mmbtu• Polish TPA Transmission Fee $0.69 per mmbtu• Polish Industrial Customers $6.80 per mmbtu• FX wellhead price (few wells/fields): $3.00 per mmbtu• FX wellhead price (strong supplier): $4.00 per mmbtu
Cost to Realize Expected Values• drilling cost range: $4-5 mm• expected drilling success rate: 50%; (FX is 3 for 3 since using
modern technology; SNS rate is 53.4%)• cost of discovery, therefore, is two wells, or $8 – $10mm• expected field size: 40 bcf to 600 bcf ($40 mm to $600 mm
present value in the ground at $3/mmbtu wellhead)• ratio of discovery cost to discovery present value ranges from
1:4 up to 1:60
Sroda-5, Sroda NE, other wells• Each Sroda area well (Sroda-5, Sroda NE, etc.) should
add approx. $2 mm/yr for FX• $4 vs. $3 gas adds $0.7 mm/yr to FX cashflow for each
Sroda area well
4 Bcf
--
40 Bcf
--
40-400 Bcf
Est. fieldSize
3 mmcf/d
4 mmcf/d230 bbls/d
10 mmcf/d
3 mmcf/d
5 mmcf/d
Initial (est)Production Rate
4 Bcf
6 Bcf +250 mbo
26 Bcf
--
35 Bcf (est)
Initial ProvedReserves
--49%80%28 mmcf/d65 mD21.3%8m2730mRusocin-1
35 mD
3 zones
250 mD
8.8 mD
Perm
22 mmcf/d
16.7 mmcf/d510 bo/d
115 mmcf/d
22 mmcf/d
Open FlowRate
80%
100%
80%
80%
Methanecontent
49%
82.18%
24.5%
49%
FX %interest
2700
2350m
2850m
3600m
Depth
65m
37m
33m
Net Pay
22%
3 zones
22.8%
20-24%
Poro
2005
2006
2006
2007
Est. startproduction
Kleka-11
Wilga-2
Zaniemysl-3
Sroda-4
Well Name
4 Bcf
--
40 Bcf
--
40-400 Bcf
Est. fieldSize
3 mmcf/d
4 mmcf/d230 bbls/d
10 mmcf/d
3 mmcf/d
5 mmcf/d
Initial (est)Production Rate
4 Bcf
6 Bcf +250 mbo
26 Bcf
--
35 Bcf (est)
Initial ProvedReserves
--49%80%28 mmcf/d65 mD21.3%8m2730mRusocin-1
35 mD
3 zones
250 mD
8.8 mD
Perm
22 mmcf/d
16.7 mmcf/d510 bo/d
115 mmcf/d
22 mmcf/d
Open FlowRate
80%
100%
80%
80%
Methanecontent
49%
82.18%
24.5%
49%
FX %interest
2700
2350m
2850m
3600m
Depth
65m
37m
33m
Net Pay
22%
3 zones
22.8%
20-24%
Poro
2005
2006
2006
2007
Est. startproduction
Kleka-11
Wilga-2
Zaniemysl-3
Sroda-4
Well Name
FX Annualized revenues
FX working interest
Annual net revenue
Annual Operating Costs
Net daily revenues
Net after royalty
Gross daily revenues
Methane content
Price (per mcf or bbl)
Daily production (mcf)
Indicative Cash Flows
$143,762
49%
$293,392
$50,000
$941
98%
$960
80%
$ 2.00
600
Kleka-11
$2,042,026
25%
$8,334,800
$250,000
$23,520
98%
$24,000
80%
$ 3.00
10,000
Zaniemysl-3
$3,995,107
82%
$4,882,800
$125,000
$13,720
98%
$14,000
100%
$ 3.50
4,000
Wilga-2 gas
$2,590,290
82%
$3,165,840
$125,000
$9,016
98%
$9,200
100%
$ 40.00
230 bbls
Wilga-2 condensate
$2,331,322
49%
$4,757,800
$250,000
$13,720
98%
$14,000
80%
$ 3.50
5,000
Sroda-4
FX Annualized revenues
FX working interest
Annual net revenue
Annual Operating Costs
Net daily revenues
Net after royalty
Gross daily revenues
Methane content
Price (per mcf or bbl)
Daily production (mcf)
Indicative Cash Flows
$143,762
49%
$293,392
$50,000
$941
98%
$960
80%
$ 2.00
600
Kleka-11
$2,042,026
25%
$8,334,800
$250,000
$23,520
98%
$24,000
80%
$ 3.00
10,000
Zaniemysl-3
$3,995,107
82%
$4,882,800
$125,000
$13,720
98%
$14,000
100%
$ 3.50
4,000
Wilga-2 gas
$2,590,290
82%
$3,165,840
$125,000
$9,016
98%
$9,200
100%
$ 40.00
230 bbls
Wilga-2 condensate
$2,331,322
49%
$4,757,800
$250,000
$13,720
98%
$14,000
80%
$ 3.50
5,000
Sroda-4
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Company ProfileShare and Balance Sheet Information
Basic Shares Outstanding 34.6 million
Options/Warrants Outstanding 7.2 million
Fully Diluted shares 41.8 million
cash from exercise + $33 million
Market Capitalization $340 million
Volume 270,000 shs/day
Management Ownership 8.4%
Institutional Ownership 31%
NASDAQ National Market: “FXEN”
Options traded on CBOE and AMEX under “FXEN”
Member Russell 3000 Index
Balance Sheet Data ($mm) 12/31/04 03/31/05
(Audited) (Unaudited)
Current Assets $37.8 $34.4
Property, net 14.8 14.5
Other 0.4 0.4
Total Assets $53.0 $49.3
Current liabilities $4.0 $1.3
Long term liabilities 0.4 0.4
Stockholders equity 48.6 47.6
Total $53.0 $49.3
Share Information 6/27/05 (Estimated)
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Critical Elements Gathered – Gaining Momentum
Underlying everything, FX has critical land asset with large hydrocarbon potential• SNS analog argues for several Tcf of undiscovered gas in Fences I/II/III• Sroda discovery increases success outlook for Sroda and nearby structures with 1+ Tcf potential• Rusocin discovery confirms presence of pinch-out play type with 1+ Tcf potential• leads and prospects identified in other plays and areas• drilling cost, expected success rate, expected values yield excellent reserves growth
Technical capability• Hardman and team bring successful experience and latest technology from Southern Gas Basin• Tatys and staff in FX’s Warsaw Production Office have the right credentials and experience to produce
gas in partnership with POGC
Funds in hand to drive a substantial drilling and development program• over $30 million cash to focus on lowest risk areas (Sroda now, pinch-out after Lugi)• reserves and production will support project funding or other industry specific funding methods
Three discoveries; two exploration models confirmed; production starts in 2006• Zaniemysl: scheduled to begin production mid-2006• Wilga: plan to start production mid-2006• Sroda: expect production in 2007 with several wells• cash flow should exceed G&A rate in about twelve months
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Why consider an investment in FXEN now?
FXEN common stock down substantially from a peak of $16.70 in Feb’05; two significant wells about to begin drilling; average daily trading volume 300,000 shares
Production revenues to commence in 2006: first three wells expected to generate revenue of up to $8 million annually – more than G&A
Warsaw production office opened June 2005 headed by Z. Tatys, former VP of POGC and Head of E&P
Sroda-4 discovery (May’05) sets up a cluster of nearby structural traps; gross potential 1+ Tcf of gas; Sroda-5 and possibly Sroda-6 to drill in 2005
Lugi well could establish a major pinch-out stratigraphic play extending southeast from the recent Rusocin discovery (Jan’05); gross potential 1+ Tcf of gas
Strong technical team building an inventory of prospects and leads with estimated unrisked maximum gross potential over 5 Tcf of gas identified to date (net 2.6 Tcf; risked net 1.3 Tcf @ $1/mcf in the ground represents a present value several times the current market capitalization of $350 million
Strong balance sheet: $34 million in cash; no debt
Excellent record of exploration success: three discoveries in a row!
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Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04
Stock Performance
Closing Price
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Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04
DAILY VOLUME (000) At June 27, 2005, 90-day average daily volume was 270,000 shares per day
Announcement dates of Industry Agreements and Drilling ResultsOrneta4/97
Gladysze9/97
PoniatowaCzernic
2/99
SiedliskaWitkow
8/99
Wilga 410/00
Annopol2/01
Tuchola1/01
Chojnice5/01
Wilga 2
1/00
Wilga 3
6/00 Kleka6/00
CalEnergy8/02
Apache4/97
RWE-DEA5/96
Zaniemysl 31/04
Rusocin1/05
Sroda-44/05