“here be dragons”, connecting a changing world to strategic decisions through futures thinking
DESCRIPTION
This presentation to the World Future Studies Federation in Bucharest in June tackles the issue of how futurists can be effective in helping organisations anticipate and prepare for the future. Based on the work published in "Here be Dragons" and using the work of the European Forum on Forward Looking Activities in developing the ability of the European Commission to anticipate the future, it scopes some of the hurdles and suggests ways of tackling them.TRANSCRIPT
Robust decisions in uncertain times
WFSF: 21st World Conference
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1
“Here be Dragons” Connecting a changing world to strategic
decisions
Gill Ringland CEO & Fellow, SAMI Consulting
June 2013
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Here be dragons ------
04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2 ©2009 Ringland
Robust decisions in uncertain times
WEF Global Risks 2011
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1000
100
Perc
eiv
ed im
pact
US
BN
$
Perceived likelihood in next 10 years
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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Energy pressures
400
300
200
100
0
Gigajoules per capita
0 10 20 30 40
GDP per capita
USA
Europe, Japan, Korea
China, India
Robust decisions in uncertain times
The logarithm of the ratio of the current situation to the probable
long term sustainable limit: these have been breached already
0
Carbon dioxide
Species extinction rate
Nitrogen cycle
Phosphorus cycle
Stratospheric
ozone depletion
Ocean acidification
Freshwater use
Change in land use
Sustainable limit
Environmental pressures
©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010 04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 5
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Effective at renewal ?
Efficiency
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Asset allocation
Traditional hierarchy
©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow
Ad hoc
activities,
lobbying etc
Present and future operating environment
Organisations facing change
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Role of futurists ?
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Organisation
knows the answer doesn’t know the answer
In
div
idual
Know
s the a
nsw
er
doesn’t k
now
the a
nsw
er
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Futures Council, TCBE
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Consultant Line manager
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Line manager, Corporate Strategist Scenarios Future
Engineer manager thinker
Early indicators Portfolio Ideas & systems Alternate “843” trends
Decisions, management Planning worlds interconnected
Timelines Options
Decisions
Thinking styles
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Foxes and hedgehogs
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Effective at renewal,
foxes
Efficiency, hedgehogs
Asset allocation
Traditional hierarchy
©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow
Planning
and ensuring
renewal
machinery
works
Present and future operating environment
Organisations and change
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Applying to the EC
04/08/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 12 ©2009 Ringland
• EFFLA (European Forum on Forward Looking
Activities) set up to
– aggregate existing forward looking studies and data
– and involve public and private stakeholders to
improve the evidence base of future (R&I) policies
• Advisory Board to DG RTD, set up in September
2011
• Adopted a strategy cycle from TEKES in Finland
as the basis for aligning to DG RTD cycle
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Necessary elements of the future EU strategic process
Foresight (I) > Insight (II) > Strategy (III) > Action (IV)
Robust decisions in uncertain times
EC DG RTD context
• Strategic process:
– Strategic Intelligence – cast wide
– Stronger systematic sense-making using SI data – role of
experts and individuals
– Sense making strong link to Selecting priorities
– Political dynamics & Member States important in Selecting
Priorities
• “Hub”
– NODE (close to decision-makers) to give access and be an
anchor for effectiveness;
– also to act as an INTERFACE to translate issues and engage at
the right time
– NETWORK to provide a broad range of outside sources,
antennas across EU and beyond; increasingly involves semi-
automated scanning
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon scanning
SS
ANZ HSN
Meta AJASN
RAHS
Risk Assessment
& Horizon
Scanning
SS
Sigma
Scan
ANZ HSN
Aus & NZ
Horizon
Scanning
Network
Meta
Metafore/
SemaDyson
AJASN
Aus Joint
Agencies
scanning
Network
RAHS iK
iKNow
iK
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Sense making steps
• Need for sponsor – what question are we trying
to answer?
– Exploring different visions
– Analysing trends
– Analysing drivers
– Creating different scenarios
– Building the strategy options
– Selection of priorities
• Links from Strategic Intelligence and to Selecting
Priorities
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
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How to integrate the process into real life?Example – preparing H2030
Activity 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Process management
Phase I Strategic intelligence
Phase IISense-making
Phase IIISelecting priorities
Phase IVImplementation
Start Mid-term evaluation of H2020
Involves input fromknowledgestakeholdersand MS
The process is NOT linear but cyclic with constant feedback (Ref. Slide No 3).
Involves MS and Commission.
InvolvesEuropeanParliament and Commission.
InvolvesCouncil.
Involves MS and Commission.
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Thank you!
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 18
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