henry stewart survival analysis
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
- 1. Applications of Survival Analysis to Customer Management Henry Stewart Briefing for Users of Marketing Analytics 4 December 2008, Mayfair Conference Centre, Marble Arch, London William De Genst
- 2. Survival Analysis
- 3. Survival Analysis Understanding Customer Attrition
- 4. Survival Analysis Techniques
- 5. Survival Analysis Distributions of lifetimes
- 6. Survival Analysis Distributions of lifetimes
- 7. Survival Analysis Joining Time Time Survey end Actual Time Time from common origin Distributions of lifetimes
- 8. Survival Analysis Estimation
- 9. Survival Analysis Estimation
- 10. Survival Analysis Trial contract Non-trial contract Log-rank test (Mantel-Haenszel) Chisq= 30.2 on 1 degrees of freedom, p= 3.98e-08 Estimation
- 11. Survival Analysis Cox proportional hazards model
- 12. Survival Analysis Cox proportional hazards model Var SE( ) z p v 1 0.09 0.03 3.19 0.01 v 2 -0.35 0.19 -1.83 0.06 v n -0.34 0.38 -0.90 0.37
- 13. Survival Analysis Schoenfeld residuals ~ time Martingale residuals ~ covariate Cox proportional hazards model
- 14. Survival Analysis Cox proportional hazards model Smoothed term
- 15. Lifetime Value Analysis Customer Lifetime Value
- 16. Lifetime Value Analysis time Survival probability Customer
spend time
- Marketing campaign
- Initial cost
- Initial return
- Loyal customers spend
- more over time
- Return on investment
- 17. Case Study Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign
- 18. Case Study Free trials Year 1 renewal Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign
- 19. Case Study DD cancelation Free trials going on to other products Original Payment Method
- 20. Case Study Payment method as strata
- Decreased hazard:
-
- More product switches
-
- Method payment
-
- Downgrading (customer finds fee unjustified for usage)
-
- Increased income
- Increased hazard:
-
- Higher household density
- 21. Case Study
- - Loyal customers tend to spend more over time
- - Free trial customers that subsequently subscribe to a paid subscription
-
- gradually spend more, to reach same level as paid subscribers
- 22. Case Study break-even in week 65 Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign
- 23. Case Study Cost of a Direct Mailing Campaign
- 24. Conclusions