heleen de coninck technical support unit ipcc wg iii (mitigation) trondheim, october 26th, 2004

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Carbon dioxide capture and storage in a climate change perspective

The current state of insights from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Heleen de ConinckTechnical Support Unit IPCC WG III (Mitigation)

Trondheim, October 26th, 2004OSPAR Workshop: The Environmental Impact of

Placement of Carbon Dioxide in Geological Structures in the Maritime Area


About IPCC

Established by WMO and UNEP 1988:• Assess scientific, technical and socio-economic

information on climate change, impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation

• Publication of reports• No research, no monitoring, no recommendations• Policy relevant but not policy prescriptive • Extensive review processes of its reports• Support to UNFCCC


About IPCC: organisation

W ork in g g rou p IS c ien ce

Tech n ica l S u p p ort U n itU K

W ork in g G rou p IIIm p ac t an d A d ap ta tionTech n ica l S u p p ort U n it

U S A

W ork in g G rou p IIIM it ig a tion

Tech n ica l S u p p ort U n itN e th erlan d s

Task F orce onN ation a l G H G in ven to ries

Tech n ica l S u p p ort U n itJap an

IP C C B u reau

IP C CIP C C C h a ir

W M O /U N E P

Co-ordination SR on CO2 capture and storage

Co-chairs WGIII: Ogunlade Davidson (Sierra Leone) &

Bert Metz (Netherlands)


Why are IPCC publicationsso influential?

• World-wide effort to gather and combine all views and information on climate change

• Broad involvement of scientists • Extensive review process• Based on consensus - if no consensus reached, all

opinions to be reflected in report• Report: owned by authors• Summary for Policymakers (SPM): owned by

governments


Convincing evidence…

Source: IPCC TAR, 2001


…that the climate is changing…temperature rise (°C)



… and impacts seem inevitable


I: Unique and threatened systemsII: Extreme climate eventsIII: DistributionIV: Aggregate impactsV: Large-scale discontinuities


Impacts of CO2 emissions and climate change

• Temperature rise• Changing precipitation patterns; flooding; landslides• Sea level rise• Melting of glaciers• Ecological consequences• Consequence for farming, especially in developing

countries• Slow acidification of the oceans by take-up of

atmospheric CO2


What can be done?

• Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations at levels of 450 ppmv (or 550, 650, 750?)

• Reduction of emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases

• Fossil fuel combustion main cause of CO2 emissions

• World energy supply likely to remain dominated by fossil fuels until at least 2050


What can be done?



What can be done?

• Energy efficiency

• Decarbonisation– energy sources

– CO2 capture and storage

• Biological carbon sequestration

• Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management


What does IPCC tell us on capture and storage of CO2?

IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001): a “new mitigation technology”

• “Serious mitigation option”

• Capacity not restraining (~ 5700 GtCO2)

• Costs are estimated competitive with other mitigation options at ca. 40 – 60 US$/tCO2

• Safety and verification noted as problems• Significant cost reductions for achieving stabilisation

scenarios



Dooley, 2002

Energy and economic models seem to agree on a number of broad principles:– Relatively small niche market for CCS technologies

in the absence of a CO2 emissions mandate

– CCS technologies’ deployment accelerates as carbon permit prices rise

– Ultimate deployment of this class of technologies could be massive, depending on the stabilisation scenario assumptions



Conclusions IPCC Workshop on carbon dioxide capture and storage (November 2002):

• Environmental impacts of geological storage likely small, but not well characterised

• Progress expected in the near future



Conclusions IPCC Workshop on carbon dioxide capture and storage (November 2002):

• Literature basis growing rapidly• CCS important enough to deserve good

assessment• More attention needed for barriers and

uncertainties


Contents IPCC SRCCS


Legal framework in the SRCCS?

• Assessment requested by the IPCC Plenary

• Interpretation still uncertain: legal literature not unambiguous

• Giving one interpretation would be policy prescriptive

• Legal section will be highlighting the difficulties, not providing a solution


Timing of the SRCCS

• January – March 2005: Government and Expert Review

• End of April: last Lead Author meeting• July: Final Draft finished• August: Government Review of the Summary for

Policymakers• End of September: IPCC Approval session• Presentation to UNFCCC at COP-11 (November

2005)


More information?

• IPCC Workshop in Regina: Proceedings

• IPCC in general: www.ipcc.ch

If you would like to be an Expert Reviewer:

Leave your card or contact me: [email protected]

heleen de coninck technical support unit ipcc wg iii (mitigation) trondheim, october 26th, 2004

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