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Report by: South East Wood Fuels Ltd

Date: 09/02/2016

Version: Final

East Hampshire District Council

Heat Techno-Economic Feasibility Studies

Executive Summary

EHDC HNDU Phase II: Technical and Economic Feasibility

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Issued Version Control

Version Status Checked by Approved by

0.3 FINAL Matthew Morris Stewart Boyle

Contents

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................... 3

1.1 REPORT HIGHLIGHTS (PENNS PLACE, ALTON, WHITEHILL & BORDON) .................................................................................. 3 1.2 HIGHLIGHTS: PENNS PLACE & TARO LEISURE CENTRE ........................................................................................................ 6 1.3 HIGHLIGHTS: ALTON SPORTS CENTRE .............................................................................................................................. 8 1.4 HIGHLIGHTS: WHITEHILL & BORDON ............................................................................................................................ 10

APPENDIX 1: HEAT NETWORKS AND LEISURE CENTRES IN EAST HAMPSHIRE: EHDC AND LEISURE CENTRE

OPERATORS PERSPECTIVE ....................................................................................................................................... 12


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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1 REPORT HIGHLIGHTS (PENNS PLACE, ALTON, WHITEHILL & BORDON)

1.1.1 Introduction EHDC commissioned this project after completion of the East Hampshire Heat Masterplan in 2015,

funded by DECC’s Heat Network Delivery Unit (HNDU). The Heat Masterplan concluded that three

heat loads provided sufficient potential to carry out further assessment to see if they were

technically and commercially viable.

This study is consistent with current EHDC Corporate and Energy Strategies in which seek to

expand the contribution of renewable energy technologies in East Hampshire, to meet CO2

reduction targets and stimulate economic development through green business expansion. The

study is also in keeping with the need to meet legally binding carbon reduction targets at a

national level.

1.1.2 Technologies Of the wide range of low-carbon heat technologies assessed, three – biomass heating, gas-

Combined Heat and Power (CHP) and Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHP) - are technically viable

(albeit with GSHP taking a more limited role). Biomass heating and gas-CHP are the two most

commercially viable options at this stage.

The three proposed heat network projects are all technically viable.

The heat networks combined offer an attractive £4.9 million investment with rates of return of

between 11% and 15% IRR.

The cumulative positive cash flow benefit for all three projects combined is £10.6 million over 20

years and £28.3 million over 40 years.

The Net Present Value (NPV) for the three projects is more than £3.1 million (20 years) and £5.2

million (40 years).

The results are robust under a wide range of sensitivity tests, except where the RHI is significantly

reduced or not available, and where import power prices fall by 25%.

The Penns Place/Taro Leisure Centre heat network could be installed in 2016, securing a 20-year

income stream of £800,000 from the Government’s RHI scheme.

All three projects offer attractive opportunities for an Energy Services Company (ESCo). If EHDC

took a prominent role in this ESCo significant positive cash flows could be secured.


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Table 1: Summary of modelling Scenario Technologies and Costs for all three sites: Scenarios 2, 5 & 7

Heat (and Power)

demand Technology option Technology Scale Backup

Penns Place/Taro Leisure Centre

(Scenario 2)

2.7 million kWh(th) and 1.47 million kWh(e)

Biomass and CHP heat 450kW(th) biomass and

c.450,000kWh waste CHP heat

1

Gas boilers

Alton (Scenario 5) 3million kWh (th) and 1

million kWh(e) Biomass and CHP

400kW(th) biomass and 200kWe gas-CHP

Gas boilers

Whitehill & Bordon (Scenario

7 and 7A)

36 million kWh (th) and 16.6 million kWh(e)

Gas-CHP and biomass (GSHP for smaller

network)

2MWe gas-CHP + 2MWth biomass (and 1MWe gas-CHP and 4MW(th) biomass

variation)

Gas boilers

1.1.3 Study Results Table 2: Summary of modelling results for all three sites: Scenarios 2, 5 & 7

Capital Costs

Cumulative cash flow benefit £ -

20yr


40yr

IRR % 20yr

IRR % 40yr

NPV £ 20yr

NPV £ 40yr

CO2 emission reduction

(%)

Penns Place/Taro Leisure Centre

£550,000 £1.27

million £1.3 million 14 14 £366,000 £338,000 62-72%

Alton £760,000 £1.04

million £2.6 million 11 12 £220,000 £385,000 44-66%

Whitehill & Bordon

£3.6 million

£8.3 million £24.4

million 14 15

£2.46 million

£4.475 million

44-69%

Total £4.9

million £10.6

million £28.3

million n/a n/a

£3.05 million

£5.2 million

45-69% (8,000-13,000

tCO2/yr)

A detailed financial analysis was carried out for all projects, including sensitivity analysis to assess

how robust the results were. These were measured against a 7% IRR benchmark (the current rate

of return from EHDC’s property portfolio).

The three projects assessed under this study offer a £4.9 million investment opportunity in low-

carbon heat networks, with Internal Rates of Return (IRR) of between 11% and 15%.

The cumulative positive cash flow benefit is £10.6 million over 20 years (£28 million over 40 years).

The Net Present Value (NPV) for the three projects total more than £3 million over 20 years (£5.2

million over 40 years).

1.1.4 Risks and Opportunities The results are most sensitive to future grid electricity prices, as well as the availability and tariff

levels of the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI). Large reductions in grid electricity prices are unlikely.

The results are resilient to the other sensitivity tests (i.e. variations in heat loads, gas and wood

chip prices, capital costs).

1 Estimated, as metered data was not available.


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The technology risk is low for all three projects, and due to their direct involvement in both

buildings, the heat load risk is low for Penns Place-Taro Leisure Centre.

The Penns Place-Taro Leisure Centre heat network has a time limited opportunity to secure an

£800,000 index-linked RHI income stream over 20 years before the end of 20162.

The Alton project requires strong emphasis on the use of gas-CHP to become viable. A biomass

only investment with assumed lower rates of RHI support is not economic against the Council’s

current investment criteria (<7% IRR).

The Whitehill & Bordon Regeneration Project offers an attractive heat (and power) load and

density over time, and a combination ‘gas-CHP and biomass’ investment offers low-risk

technologies and an attractive rate of return. At this stage of development, the heat load offers a

‘moderate’ risk to investment, as it will likely change from current estimates. However a

sensitivity test with 25% lower heat load reduced the IRR by only 2%.

1.1.5 Wider Economic and Environmental benefits EHDC has an Energy Strategy that seeks to grow the renewables sector in its district and meet

high CO2 reduction targets. There are wider economic and environmental benefits from investing

in the three projects. For example, they offer a potential wood fuel market of between 3,000 to

7,500 tonnes per annum. That is estimated to be worth between £270,000 and £700,000 of gross

income per year at current prices.

The three projects offer a combined CO2 reduction potential of 45-69% (8,160-13,165 tCO2/yr)

(see Table 2).

1.1.6 Governance of the Projects Governance of the three projects is critical, and this is explored for each of the projects in turn.

The projects would support the establishment of an Energy Services Company (ESCo).

The appetite of EHDC to take ownership of project, design, fuel, capital and management risks will

determine the shape of the governance structure. This will also determine the extent of the

project value returns to EHDC and the wider community.

Based on the current level of risks and benefits, local authorities like EHDC would maximise

benefits by taking a leading direct role in the ESCo.

2 While final decisions over the RHI have not yet been announced by DECC, initial proposals by DECC to trade

associations indicate a preference to reduce biomass tariffs in 2017, while increasing relative support for heat pumps and biomethane (personal communication, Julian Morgan-Jones, WHA, 2016).


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1.2 HIGHLIGHTS: PENNS PLACE & TARO LEISURE CENTRE

1.2.1 Introduction The combined Penns Place offices and Taro Leisure Centre heat load offers an attractive

opportunity to develop a heat network.

A possible extension of the heat network to a 96 home development in Penns Field within the

next five years may allow a significant extension to the heat network.

1.2.2 Technologies The recommended heat network solution integrates a new 450kW biomass heating system with

either the existing CHP plant, or a new CHP plant in a few years’ time. A packaged boiler room

located close to the Taro Leisure Centre is recommended. This should have sufficient space

nearby to incorporate the biomass system, a new CHP plant and possible additional plant if the

housing development is connected to the heat network.

Given the age of the existing CHP plant, the fact that it is ‘over-sized’ and heat is being wasted, a

re-sized new CHP plant could be sited at the new boiler room site, with greater control over heat

inputs.

The technical aspects of this project are low risk and viable.

1.2.3 Study Results Table 3: Summary of modelling results for Penns Place/Taro Leisure Centre: Scenario 2

3

Capital Costs


20yr


40yr

IRR % 20yr IRR % 40yr NPV £ 20yr NPV £ 40yr CO2 savings

(% of benchmark)

£550,000 £1.27 million £1.26 million 14 14 £366,000 £338,000 62-72%

A detailed financial analysis was carried out. For an investment of £550,000 a 20-year rate of

return of 14% IRR is predicted.

A 20-year positive cash flow benefit of £1.27 million and a Net Present Value (NPV) of £366,000

are also predicted.

An extension of the heat network to a possible housing development in Penns Field is currently

too uncertain and risky to warrant extending the proposed heat network. However, a modest

level of ‘future proofing’ of a larger heat network could be achieved by ensuring there is enough

space for additional biomass boilers and CHP plant at the proposed packaged boiler plant room.

1.2.4 Risks and Opportunities The results are sensitive to the availability and tariff levels of the RHI. Without the current RHI

income stream the project is not viable.



The technology and heat load risks are low.

3 Figures are rounded.


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The Penns Place-Taro Leisure Centre heat network has a time limited opportunity to secure an

£800,000 index-linked RHI income stream over 20 years before the end of 2016. Without that

income stream the rates of return drop significantly to less than 7% IRR. This factor is a significant

driver for the Council in terms of potential investment in the project compared to its current

investment criteria.

1.2.5 Wider Economic and Environmental benefits There are wider economic and environmental benefits. For example, the project offers a potential

wood fuel market of 720 tonnes per annum. This is estimated to be around £75,000 gross income

at current prices.

The project offers a CO2 reduction potential of 62-72% (compared to a benchmark of gas boilers

and grid power).

1.2.6 Governance of the Project The project lends itself to setting up an Energy Services Company (ESCo).

It is recommended that the Council is directly involved in the establishment of an ESCo and

consider the strengths of a private/public hybrid governance structure. This would maximise the

benefits for EHDC and the wider community.

Given the need to take an early decision over the project, an interim management solution would

be to tender and sign a ‘Design, Build and Operate’ contract with a specialist biomass-district

heating supplier for 3 to 5 years. When EHDC’s preferred approach for an ESCo is agreed and set

up, the management functions could then be taken over.

Figure 1: Provisional heat network pipe layout for Penns Place, Taro Leisure Centre and Penns Field


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1.3 HIGHLIGHTS: ALTON SPORTS CENTRE

1.3.1 Introduction

The proposed new Alton Sports Centre received outline planning permission in 2015 to replace

the existing facility. It offers an excellent heat network when combined with two smaller heat

loads nearby.

A large 305 homes development nearby offers a potential larger heat network but the timing and

extent of this remains uncertain.

1.3.2 Technologies The recommended solution integrates a new 200kW(e) (300kW(th)4 gas-CHP unit with a 400kW

biomass heating system. Compared to standard gas heating, this offers a good combination of

strong financial returns with significant CO2 emission reductions.

1.3.3 Study Results Table 4: Summary of modelling results for Alton: Scenario 5

5

Capital Costs


20yr


40yr

IRR % 20yr IRR % 40yr NPV £ 20yr NPV £ 40yr CO2

emissions savings

£760,000 £1.04 million £2.6 million 11 12 £220,000 £385,000 44-66%

A detailed financial analysis was carried out. For an investment of under £760,000, an 11-12% IRR

is predicted.

The project has a 20-year positive cash flow benefit of £1.04 million (£2.6 million over 40 years)

and a NPV of £220,000 (£385,000 over 40 years).

1.3.4 Risks and Opportunities

The financial results are most sensitive to the availability and tariff levels of the RHI, and grid

electricity prices. We think a large fall in electricity prices is unlikely.

The project assumes that 50% of the current ‘medium biomass tariff’ under the RHI is secured

(currently 5.2p/kWh (Tier 1)6. Without that income stream the rates of return drop by up to 6%

IRR, and only the gas-CHP option offers a decent rate of return (>12% IRR) when these factors are

considered.



The technology risks are low.

4 CHP heat and power ratios vary according to plant size and company offerings. Based on one company’s CHP range

where heat to power ratios vary between 1.07 and 2.17 and an average of 1.36, we have assumed 1.5. We accept this is a conservative figure that under-states the economic benefit of the CHP investment. 5 Figures are rounded.

6 See Footnote 2.


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1.3.5 Wider Economic and Environmental benefits

There are wider economic and environmental benefits. For example, the project offers a potential

wood fuel market of 520 tonnes per annum. This is estimated to be worth around £54,000 gross

income at current prices.

The project offers a CO2 reduction potential of 46-66% (see Table 2).

1.3.6 Governance of the Project

The project lends itself to setting up an ESCo.

It is recommended that the Council are directly involved in the establishment of an ESCo and

consider the strengths of a private/public hybrid governance structure. This would maximise the

benefits for EHDC and the wider community.

Figure 2: Provisional heat network pipe layout for new Alton leisure centre site and housing development


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1.4 HIGHLIGHTS: WHITEHILL & BORDON

1.4.1 Introduction This project combines the projected heat loads for the proposed town centre, which is currently

due to be delivered between 2018 and 2021. The estimated combined heat (and power) loads for

housing, service and commercial buildings are attractive for heat network economics, and the

technical and financial aspects of the project are viable.

1.4.2 Technologies The recommended solution with a new heat network integrates a 2,000kW(e) (2,500kW(th)7 gas-

CHP unit with a 2,000kW biomass heating system8. Compared to standalone gas heating and no

heat network, this offers a good combination of strong financial returns with significant CO2

emissions reductions. A variation on this with a higher emphasis on biomass was also assessed.

A more limited heat network, supplying around 1/8 of the total heat demand and heated by a

Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) system alongside a gas-CHP system offers promising rates of

return (c.15% IRR). While GSHP cannot supply the whole of the heat network, it is worth looking

at further.

1.4.3 Study Results Table 5: Summary of modelling results for Whitehill & Bordon: Scenario 7

Capital Costs


20yr


40yr

IRR % 20yr IRR % 40yr NPV £ 20yr NPV £ 40yr

CO2 emissions

savings (% of benchmark)

£3.75 million £8.3 million £24.4 million 14 15 £2.5 million £4.5 million 44-69%

With an investment of £3.7 million, a rate of return of 14-18% IRR is expected.

The project also shows a 20-year positive cash flow benefit of £8.28 million (£24 million over 40

years) and a NPV of £2.5 million (£4.5 million over 40 years).

1.4.4 Risks and Opportunities The financial results are robust under a range of sensitivity tests, except where grid electricity

prices drop by 25%. Sizing the CHP plant such that long-term contracts are entered into between

an ESCo and non-domestic building operators will be important in reducing risks.

7 CHP heat and power ratios vary according to plant size and company offerings. Based on one company’s CHP range

where heat to power ratios vary between 1.07 and 2.17 and an average of 1.36, we have assumed 1.5. We accept this is a conservative figure that under-states the economic benefit of the CHP investment. 8 Even at this Outline Feasibility study stage, we are conscious that this size of CHP covers more than the commercial

buildings power demand of 9.3 million kWh via private wires (i.e. 2000kW x 6000 hours = 12mkWh) and would necessitate either exporting to the grid at much lower prices (c.5p/kWh) or to some of the domestic power load. Our variation Scenario 7A uses a 1MW CHP plant, which at 6500 hours of operation per annum would cover 70% of the non-domestic load.


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The project assumes that 50% of the current ‘large biomass tariff’ (currently just over 2p/kWh)

under the RHI can be secured. Without that income stream the rates of return drops by 2-3% (i.e.

down to between 12-15% IRR).

The project offers low risks for the Council and its partners, in that the technologies are well-

known, and that the heat network route can be installed at the same time as the town centre

development takes place.

An existing 1km heat network would offer cost savings through utilising the existing Energy Centre

and underground pipe routes for the new heat network.

1.4.5 Wider Economic and Environmental benefits There are wider economic and environmental benefits. For example, the project offers a potential

wood fuel market of around 3,000 tonnes per annum. That is worth around worth around

£270,000 gross income at current prices.

The project offers a CO2 reduction potential of 44-69% when compared to standard gas heating

and imported grid power.

1.4.6 Governance of the Project The project is attractive for the setting up an ESCo suitable for this project.

It is recommended that a direct involvement in the ESCO by EHDC (or at least a hybrid public-

private sector run ESCO) be explored further with the Whitehill & Bordon Regeneration Company

as the development partner. This would allow as much of the project benefits to be retained for

EHDC and the wider community. While it is a larger and more complex project than the other two

projects in this study, with appropriate technical and commercial expertise from private sector

partners, the risks are manageable.

Figure 3: Whitehill & Bordon structuring plan, showing details for the new town centre (within black dotted line) and position of existing gas-fired energy centre (red box). (Sources: Barton Willmore; SEWF Ltd).


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APPENDIX 1: HEAT NETWORKS AND LEISURE CENTRES IN EAST HAMPSHIRE:

EHDC AND LEISURE CENTRE OPERATORS PERSPECTIVE

Leisure and Sports Centres feature in all three of the projects which are the focus of this report.

The Taro Leisure Centre is a 1980s existing facility with dry and wet sections and a significant heat

load. It currently uses gas boilers and a small gas-CHP unit to provide its heat and power. The

current heat and power demand is 2.33 million kWh(th) and 1.05 million kWh(e) respectively. .

The Alton Sports Centre is planned to be replaced in 2017 by a new 8,500m2 combined ‘wet’ and

‘dry’ Centre built alongside the old Centre but to modern energy efficiency standards. Sources of

heat and power to serve the new facility have yet to be confirmed, but estimated heat and power

loads are 3.1 million kWh(th) and 1 million kWh(e). This includes small heat loads nearby for the

cardiac health Centre and ten older apartments.

Whitehill & Bordon town centre has a new Leisure Centre planned with similar heat and power

loads as for Alton Sports Centre.

At present, EHDC sub-contracts the operations and management of their Leisure Centre facilities to a

private sector contractor (often set up as a charitable trust). The current contractor is ‘Places for People’.

A new 15-year contract is up for renewal in 2016 (and starting in April 2017).

Six organisations have been shortlisted to take part in the procurement process. This will conclude by the

end of 2016, with the expectation that the preferred bidder will work in partnership with the Council to

deliver the most appropriate heat and power solutions.

The first solutions for review with the preferred bidder will be a decentralised energy solution. This

approach reflects the Council’s corporate and political will to invest in and deliver the East Hampshire

Energy Strategy to demonstrate leadership in this sector.

A1.1 Energy and Carbon Emissions Issues The energy loads of Leisure Centres, even under modern high efficiency building standards, generate a

significant year round heat and power load, particularly where swimming pools are involved as well as

‘dry’ facilities.

Small to medium-scale gas-fired CHP units have become quite common for such facilities, while biomass

heating offers a good technical low carbon heating solution. The common duty technology is however

large banks of gas condensing boilers.

There are real opportunities to reduce carbon emissions in this sector via new or retrofitted biomass and

CHP systems. These opportunities are as follows:

Taro Leisure Centre: The current 125kW(e) CHP plant was installed c.2002-03, replacing the

existing single 40kW(e) CHP plant, which ran for approximately 6 years prior to this. The plant is

owned (financed) and maintained by the private company ENER-G, and the current contract is due

to end in March 2017. The plant has clearly been sized to maximise electricity savings benefits and

is ‘over-sized’ as far as heat output is concerned. At present, an estimated 50% of heat output

from the current CHP unit (c.450,000kWh(th)) is currently rejected via a heat exchanger and fan,

leading to c.83 tonnes CO2 of extra emissions for no energy benefit.


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Prior to the current contract ending in March 2017, a decision will need to made as to whether a)

a new or revised contract with ENER-G is signed, b) the CHP plant is replaced with a new re-sized

CHP system, or c) the CHP plant is simply removed. Details of the current CHP contract would

need to be discussed prior to this decision. If a decision is taken to renew or replace this with a

new CHP plant, the existing heat main and controls set-up will require important review and

intervention to ensure that all heat sources are controlled through a Building Management

System (BMS)9, and that greater emphasis on overall system efficiency such that no CHP heat is

wasted.

Critical in making the economics work for additional investment in either the existing or a new

CHP plant, will be the nature of the heat supply and delivery, and the costs and benefits for each.

One option is for EHDC to invest in the additional pipework and controls to link or locate a new re-

sized CHP plant at the proposed new biomass Energy Centre, and then to supply this to Taro

Leisure Centre and Penns Place at slightly less than current gas prices (i.e. cost neutral). This

would save up to 83 tonnes of CO2 per annum at a cost of around £10/tCO2.

The existing small gas-CHP at Taro Leisure Centre is approximately 10-12 years old. CHP units at

this scale typically last for 15 years and the unit may therefore require replacement in 2019 or

2021. With significant benefits in providing local power to the Taro Leisure Centre, and heat to

both the Pool and ‘dry’ centre, a commitment to replace the CHP unit with a properly sized unit

should be part of any future Facilities Management agreement with the new operator.

A biomass heating system located in a packaged boiler room close to the existing main boiler

room has been shown to offer significant financial and CO2 reduction benefits. The biomass

system could essentially take over 95% of the existing gas boiler heat load at Taro Leisure Centre

and Penns Place.

A flexible and progressive approach will therefore be needed by the operator of the site from

2017 onwards, with a commitment to improving the efficiency of the heat system, reducing CO2

emissions, and maintaining low heat costs, built in to any legal agreements in the contract.

Alton Sports Centre: A combined gas-CHP and biomass heat solution would offer a significant

reduction in CO2 emissions alongside a better than 10% IRR. Putting in standard gas boilers into

this new building would hence be a significant opportunity missed to reduce running costs and cut

CO2 emissions for the site. Not only would carbon emissions be higher compared to gas-CHP and

biomass heating options (832t CO2 compared to 280t CO2), this would fail to ‘future-proof’ the

Sports Centre boiler room in being able to offer low-carbon heat to a significant new housing

development nearby in 2019-20.

o Essentially the new Sports Centre operators (or an ESCo) could purchase gas or wood chip

for the new heat network at keen commercial rates (at 2.5-3.0p/kWh for wood fuel and

2.5-2.75p/kWh for gas10), while selling heat to the heat network at higher domestic rates

to the existing local heat loads and the new housing. Offering either gas-CHP and/or

biomass heating could therefore deliver cost-effective alternatives to standard gas boilers.

As a result carbon emissions could be between 20% and >65% lower than these standard

solutions

o An open and progressive attitude to low-carbon heat and power options at Alton Sports

Centre will be important for the forthcoming Leisure Services management tender. The

9 The CHP plant is controlled largely by ENER-G and is not linked to the BMS system.

10 Typical existing prices.


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Facilities Management contractor could either take a financial stake in any ESCo operation

of the low-carbon heat and power solution, or at least be open to long-term heat and

power agreements with EHDC and/or its selected ESCo operator.

Whitehill & Bordon Leisure Facilities: Similar cost and CO2 savings opportunities exist as for Alton

Sports Centre, as described above. In addition, if a planned leisure centre is connected to a larger

Heat Network, servicing much of the proposed town centre, savings in capital can be secured by

avoiding multiple gas boilers. In this instance, only a heat exchanger and heat meter need be

utilised. A set of guarantees by the ESCo operator of the heat network would be needed, included

guaranteed back up-emergency heat support. The operator of the Leisure Centre may wish a

further level of back-up in the form of basic gas boilers for emergency heating.

o An open and progressive attitude to low-carbon heat and power options for Whitehill and

Bordon town centre will hence be important for the forthcoming Leisure Services

management tender. The Facilities Management contractor could either take a financial

stake in any ESCo operation of the low-carbon heat and power solution, or at least be

open to long-term heat and power agreements with EHDC and/or its selected ESCo

operator.

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