heat pump market development in europe - eurammon · eurammon symposium 2015 heat pump market...
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eurammon Symposium 2015
Heat pump market development in Europe
Pascal Westring
Schaffhausen, 25th/26th June, 2015
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Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 2 http://www.ehpa.org/market-data/
Full report available in
Summer 2015
2015
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Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 3
data from 21 countries
HP stock per 1000 households:
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Schaffhausen, 25th / 26th June, 2015 Page 4
methodology – counting reversible HP
Reversible Air/air HP
for heating for cooling
usage depends on climate
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100% cold
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9.5% warm
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0% average
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market growth rates 2006 - 2014
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+14% +16% +37% -9%
+7.4% p.a.
9% +1% -7% +3%
EU 11 EU 12 EU 14 EU 14 EU 19 EU 21 EU 21 EU 21 EU 21
market development 2005 – 2014 accumulated: 7.4 million units installed
EU 21
+3%
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heat pump sales in Europe by energy source
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split of heat pump sales 2010: by type
H-air/water: 14%
H-ground/water: 14%
Reversible air-air w/heating: 60%
Reversible other: 6%
Sanitary hot water: 4%
Exhaust air: 3%
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split of heat pump sales 2014: by type
H-air/water: 20%
H-ground/water: 11%
Reversible air-air w/heating: 48%
Reversible other: 6%
Sanitary hot water: 14%
Exhaust air: 2%
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heat pump sales 2014 by category
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sanitary hot water heat pumps
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
AT BE CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IE IT LT NL NO PL PT SE SK UK
units > 20kW
units < 20kW
split of heat pump sales by capacity
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
AT BE CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IE IT LT NL NO PL PT SE SK UK
units > 20kW
units < 20kW
split of heat pump sales by capacity
?
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706 467 units (89%)
top 10 heat pump markets
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market performance = sales per 1000 households
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- actual sales 2014
market potentials if Sweden was everywhere
total: 4.9 mio
potential: 83 459 units per year
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11 464 11 773 11 252 11 100 12 025 11 567
9 107 8 209 7 652 8 300 7 254
6 940
443 618 1 320
2 097 3 260 4 282
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sanitary hot water
H-ground/water
H-air/water
development of the Swiss HP market
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market drivers
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market drivers
economic climate gdp growth
construction sector new buildings, renovations
decision factors costs, marketing, incentives, ..
sales
polic
y
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dwelling stock by energy used for space heating
1. 2. 3. 4.
source: Entranze
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economic growth 2014 (gdp at market prices) - %
source: Eurostat
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*Residential buildings, except residences for communities
source: Eurostat
growth of building permits 2014 - % change
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sales & construction of new buildings
source: Eurostat, EHPA
annual growth
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
building permits (EU-27)
heat pump sales (EU-21)
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price ratio: electricity / gas - 2014
2.5
source: Eurostat
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price ratio: electricity / gas - ordered
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energy prices influence market performance y-Axis: sales per 1k households x-Axis: price ratio (electricity vs. gas)
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taxation as hidden subsidies for fossile fuels? example case: Germany
source: Eurostat, EHPA
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heat pump benefits
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RES calculation
• (1) ERES = Qusable * (1 – 1/SPFHP category )
• (2) Qusable = saleshp category * HHP * Prated, HP category
input heat pump
operating hours
capacity
efficiency SPF
electricity
ambient heat
output
RES
usable heat
of which is renewable:
kWh
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2.90 1.29
3.18 0.77
10.43
1.13 0.77 1.23
4.52
24.10
0.08 0.12
9.75
0.07 1.65
4.84
0.81 1.31
13.59
0.07 1.83
AT BE CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IE IT LT NL NO PL PT SE SK UK
renewable energy provided - TWh based on the stock 2014
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final energy consumption in Croatia 2012:
69 TWh
renewable energy provided - TWh
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1.98
0.72
2.06
0.49
6.90
0.67 0.43 0.70
2.76
13.03
0.05 0.08
5.54
0.05 1.21
2.56
0.54 0.75
9.21
0.04 1.04
AT BE CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IE IT LT NL NO PL PT SE SK UK
primary energy savings - TWh based on the stock 2014
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energy by German wind farms 2012
46 TWh
primary energy savings - TWh
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0.76 0.33
0.82
0.20
2.71
0.29 0.20 0.32
1.17
6.13
0.02 0.03
2.49
0.02 0.44
1.23
0.21 0.34
3.55
0.02 0.47
AT BE CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IE IT LT NL NO PL PT SE SK UK
greenhouse gas emission reduction - Mt based on the stock 2014
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CO2 emitted by Croatia 2010
21 Mt
greenhouse gas emission reduction - Mt
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employment 2014 in man-years: 42 124
Heat pump maunfacturing
36%
Component manufacturing
18%
Installing of HP and heat source
30%
Service and maintenance
16%
• total employment is higher • technology leadership is in Europe