health economics tutorial krishan patel. disclaimer
TRANSCRIPT
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Health Economics TutorialKrishan Patel
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Disclaimer
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Objectives of this session
•Understand basic principles of economics
•Review and summarise the major topics which form the basis of exam questions
•Discuss up to 3 topics of popular concern!
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Structure
•Concepts in General Economics▫Basic Principles (opportunity cost etc)▫Markets (structure and forces)▫Market failures (externalities)
•Concepts in Health Economics▫Market for healthcare▫Economic evaluation▫Decision analysis
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Options!
•1) Basic Principles of Economics•2) Utility and Indifference Curves•3) Demand and Supply•4) Elasticities •5) Perfect Competition vs Monopolies •6) Externalities and Social Welfare Loss•7) Agency relationship & Supply Induced
Demand•8) Economic Evaluation (CBA/CEA/CUA)•9) Decision Trees
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Lecture 1
•Economics is based on a simple problem:▫Resources are scarce▫Human wants are infinite
•Trade off!•Opportunity cost
▫“The cost of the next best opportunity foregone.”
▫Not literally a cost in terms of money
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Jargon you need to know...
•Economic Goods - scarce relative to our wants
•Derived Demand•Utility•Diminishing marginal returns
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0102030405060708090
100110120130140150160
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Number of chocolates eaten
Utility
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Indifference curves
Kinder Bueno
Kit Kat
U2
U1
Y1=7
Y2=5
Y3=9
X1=5 X2=8
X3=10
b
c
a
X415
Y4=3
Marginal Rate of Substitution...Basically if you were going to reduce the amount of nurses, how many more doctors would you need to maintain the same amount of utility
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Maximising utility when constrained by a budget
Kinder Bueno[Good X]
40
20 40
Kit Kats[Good Y]
U2
U1
Y1
Y2
X1 X2
ed
0
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Utility Maximisation
• MUn/Pn = MUgp/Pgp (…wtf)• MU/P means PRICE per unit of SATISFACTION • Marginal utility means the utility you get from consuming
one more of the product• If the MU/P for KitKats was cheaper than MU/P for Kinder
Bueno, you would buy more Kitkats because you could get more satisfaction (utility)
• However, the more you have of something, the less added satisfaction you get by having one more
• Marginal utility goes down...it becomes more expensive to get one more unit of utility by having more Kitkat
• Eventually it will become the same price for a unit of utility...this is utility maximisation
• MUn/MUgp = Pn/Pgp …Makes sense when you look at that graph again
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•Firms - Minimise costs of production + maximise profit
•Profit = Total Revenue (TR) – Total Cost (TC)
•Profit Maximisation: oMarginal Cost (MC) = Marginal Revenue
(MR) •Diminishing marginal product – same
principle as diminishing marginal utility•Meaning that...
Lecture 2 + 3
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0102030405060708090
100110120130140150160
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Number of Workers Hired
Quantity of output
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Number of doctors0
Q200
Number of
nurses
Q200
A
B
0
A
B
Number of outpatientprocedures
Number of inpatient procedures
INPUTS!
What’s the least number of workers you can get away with treating 200 patients.
OUTPUTS!
What’s the max number of procedures you can do with a fixed number of workers
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Marginal Rate of Technical Substitution
k
i
k
i
i
kki MPx
MPx
xQx
Q
x
xxMRTSx
,
...eh?!
• Think of it as the supply side version of marginal rate of substitution that you get with the utility curves early on.
b
b
a
a
b
a
b
aab p
MP
p
MP
p
p
MP
MPMRTS
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0
Q0
Q0
Maximising output to a budget constraint
Q1
Q1
Q2
Q2
D1
Number of nurses
Number of doctors
N1
D*
N* E
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Demand
•Demand – consumers•How much consumers are WILLING and
ABLE to buy at any given price•SHIFT vs MOVEMENT – PIRATE•Population, Income, Related goods,
Alternative, Tastes and fashion, Expectations
•Normal vs Inferior good
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Co-insurance
Number of visits
Price per visit
dWO
dWI
“Effective” demand
“Nominal” demand
5
$50
$300
10
$150
15
$25
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Supply•Supply – producers•SHIFT vs MOVEMENT – CREWS •Complements, Raw materials,
Expectations for future, Weather, Substitutes.
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Market PricePrice
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Quantity
13
Equilibriumquantity
Equilibrium price Equilibrium
Supply
Demand
$20
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Price
0
Supply
Demand
Quantitydemanded
Quantitysupplied
Excess
Quantity4
$700
10
$500
7
Price
0 Quantity
Supply
Demand
Quantitysupplied
Quantitydemanded
1.50
10
$2.00
74
Shortage
Price
0 Quantity
Supply
Initialequilibrium
D
D
2.00
7
New equilibrium$2.50
10
Price
0 Quantity
Demand
Newequilibrium
Initial equilibrium
S1
S2
2.00
7
$2.50
4
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SurplusPrice
0 Quantity
Supply
Demand
In an ideal world the price set by the market would prevail because this is where we maximise “surplus.” However, there are reasons why markets fail...
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ElasticityP rice e las tic ity o f d em an d =
P ercen tag e ch an g e in q u an tity d em an d ed
P ercen tag e ch an g e in p rice
$5
4
Quantity
Demand
1000
Price
Quantity0
Price
$4 Demand
Demand tends to be more elastic:•the larger the number of close substitutes.•if the good is a luxury.•the more narrowly defined the market.•the longer the time period.Cross price elasticity: Substitutes and Complimentary goods
(prescriptions & consultations)Income elasticity of demand: Inferior and Luxury goods(Healthcare has an income elasticity of >1 ...therefore it is a luxury good...discuss!)
Elasticity of supply...graphs look the same at both extremes•Ability of sellers to change the amount of the good•Time period
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Perfect Competition – Perfect Market
1. Full and perfect information – everyone knows everything about
all the products
2. Impersonal transactions – buyers and sellers have no
relationships/bonds
3. Private goods – only the person consuming the good is affected by it;
they pays all the social costs and gain all the social benefits
4. Selfish motivation – utility gained from consumption is for the
individual only. Suppliers just want to make money.
5. Many buyers and sellers – no single buyer or seller can influence
the market price
6. Free entry/exit – anyone can come into and out of the market with
ease
7. Homogenous products – all products within the market are
identical
8. No externalities – nobody else is affected by the production and
consumption
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Monopoly vs Perfect Competition
0
£
D = AR
QM
PM
Q
S=MCA
Pc
D
C
Qc0
£
D = AR
QM Q
S=MC
Pc
D
C
Qc
Monopoly Perfect Competition
MR
The invisible hand of the market leads to an allocation of resources that makes total surplus as large as it can be. Because a monopoly leads to an allocation of resources different from that in a competitive market, the outcome must, in some way, fail to maximize total economic well-being.
Bottom line: Monopolies fail to allocate resources efficiently
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ExternalitiesThe price and quantity demanded by a perfect market takes into account all the effects on everyone. Therefore the price and quantity is at the SOCIAL OPTIMUM i.e. Social Cost = Social Benefit
However, we don’t care about others when we buy and sell things. We just care about our own costs and benefits i.e. Private Cost = Private Benefit
Examples: •Air pollution from a factory•The neighbor’s barking dog•Late-night stereo blasting from the dorm room next to yours•Noise pollution from construction projects•Health risk to others from second-hand smoke•Talking on cell phone while driving makes the roads less safe for others
All these things mean that other people are being affected by the consumption of our products. If our drive was for the economy to be perfectly efficient, then we should take these things into account when we decide what to consume and at what price.
If you look at the effect of this on a demand and supply graph...
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Positive Externality in consumptione.g. production of electric cars
QAEquilibrium Output
P
Equilibrium Price PA
Consumer Surplus
Total Gain to Other People
Deadweight Social Loss
Producer Surplus
QB Economically Efficient Output
Q
B
MPB
MSB
MPC = MSC
A
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Negative Externality in productione.g. production of cigarettes
Quantity
Price/ Cost
B
A
D (MPB/MSB)
S (MPC)
MSC
Economically Efficient Output Equilibrium Output
QB QA
EquilibriumPrice PA
Social Cost
Deadweight social loss
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This is what is meant by MARKET FAILURE!
Pareto EfficientIn a Pareto efficient economic allocation, no one can be made better off without making at least one individual worse off. MSC = MSB
Pareto ImprovementA change to a different allocation that makes at least one individual better off without making any other individual worse off.
Internalizing an externalityAltering incentives so that people take account of the external effects of their actions.e.g. Subsidies to persuade companies to produce more or taxes to persuade people to consume less.
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Correcting the failure!
TaxPrice = Private Cost = Social Cost
D = Private Benefit
Social Benefit
QS QP
Price + TAX = Private Cost = Social Cost
Cigarettes smoked per day, Q
Read about the methods other than taxation... Command-and-control policies and Market-based policies Read about the advantages and disadvantages of each method...
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Another way of drawing it...
B
MSB= MPB
MSC
QB
£5
£3
Q
A
P
MPC
QA
Tax
£1.5
You influence the consumer to make him feel the extra social cost of smoking cigarettes and therefore change the amount he demands
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• Full information Full information – but asymmetric information oPatients know better about their risks and behaviouroDoctors know better about treatmentoInsurers - Asymmetry between patients and insurance and providers:
•Averse selection (only high risk may buy insurance) – banding/compulsory
•Consumer Moral hazard (people act differently after getting insured) – no claims bonus/consumer contribution
•Producer Moral hazard (producer knows all costs will be covered so it becomes inefficient at using its resources) – regulation/prospective reimbursement
• ImpersonalImpersonal – but relationship based on trust• SelfishSelfish – but concerns beyond self-interest – agency relationship
oDoctor’s own interestsoSupplier induced demand
• Private goodsPrivate goods – but public goods and externalities• Many buyers and sellers Many buyers and sellers – but monopolies• Free entry Free entry – but professional entry requirements• Homogenous products Homogenous products – but product differentiation
Lecture 6 – Market Failure in Healthcare
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Price
Quantity (eg. patient visits
Demand
Supply
P
Q
P1
Q1
Supply1
Price
Quantity (eg. patient visits
Demand
Supply
P
Q
Supply1
PS
QS
DemandS
Q1
P1
Price
Quantity (eg. patient visits
Demand
Supply
P
Q Qs
Supply1
DemandS
P1
Q1
Price
Quantity (eg. patient visits
Demand
Supply
P
Q
P1
Q1
Supply1
DemandS
Ps
Qs
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Price
Quantity (eg. patient visits)
P
Q
P1
Q1
Observed dataBefore and after the shock in Supply
Price
Quantity (eg. patient visits
Demand
Supply
P
Q
Supply1
P1
Q1
Demands
P2
Q2
Can be consistent with SID!
Price
Quantity (eg. patient visits
P
Q
P1
Q1
But also with a more elastic demand with no SID!
Supply
Supply1
Demand
Price
Quantity (eg. patient visits
Demand
Supply
P
Q
P1
Q1
Supply1
Demands
Ps
Qs
Can only be sure ifQ and P both rise
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Fairness in HealthcarePublic Good – (street lights, vaccinations)non rival (one person consuming doesn’t affect another persons ability to consume) and non excludable (can’t give it to some and not others) – free rider problem
Merit Goods – (health care)Would be under produced if left to the free market mechanism alone.If health care can’t be allocated according to the market mechanism, then how do you decide who get’s what...
Sum-ranking – ‘the greatest happiness principle’e.g. maximise population health, happiness, wellbeing
Maximin – ‘the difference principle’e.g. give priority to those whose health is worse
Egalitarianism – equal distribution (goods, utility ?)•Fair Innings – everybody entitled to a normal span of life at a reasonable level of quality
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How to distribute a tax A tax is….•proportional if the tax revenue increases by the same proportion of the increase in the subjects’ income: VAT (?)
•progressive if the tax revenue increases by a proportion larger than the rate of increase of income: income tax
•regressive if the tax revenue increases by a proportion smaller than the rate of increase of income: lump sum
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Lecture 7 Cost Benefit Analysis – Weighs up the costs and benefit of an option but uses money as the principle unit. Can’t quantify in monetary terms the benefit of a lot of health care treatments. Therefore, there is limited role for CBA.
Decision to accept if: TB > TC TB-TC=NB>0 TB/TC>1
To take into account of the value today of future streams of costs and benefit NPV>0Cost Effectiveness Analysis – Weighs up an outcome based on a unit of benefit e.g. Amount of weight lost, amount of asthma free days, improvement of eyesight in dioptres.It can only compare procedures with the same unit of outcome.
Cost Utility Analysis – Converts an outcome into a standard unit of benefit (utility) e.g. QUALY or DALY
ICER – Used to compare the cost effectiveness of an intervention compared to its next best alternativeIn CEA – it could be the cost per Kg of weight lost In CUA – it could be the cost per QUALYThreshold – maximum willingness to pay per unit of benefit
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Comparing ICER to a threshold
(-)
Dif
fere
nce
in c
ost
s (+
)
Activity never acceptable
(-) Difference in effects (+)
Activity always
acceptable
At Rc, activity unacceptable
At Rc, activity
acceptable
At Rc, activity
acceptable
At Rc, activity unacceptable
Rc -Threshold
E
C
EFFECTSEFFECTS
COSTCOSTICER
BA
BA
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When it’s not such a clear cut decision...
• Decision rule:• ∆C/∆E < Rc the activity is cost effective• ∆C/∆E > Rc the activity is not cost effective
• Decision rule:• ∆C/∆E >Rc the activity is cost effective• ∆C/∆E < Rc the activity is not cost effective
Technology that improves outcomes but is more expensivee.g. Robotic surgery
Technology that decreases outcomes but is cheapere.g. Stool screening rather than colonoscopy
Minimum cost saving willing to accept to forgo 1 unit of outcome
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QUALYs• Combines:
– quality of life (QOL) – length of life (LOL)
• Values health states over a period of time– Perfect health: 1
– Death: 0
QALY= QOL x LOL
• 2 years with health quality of 0.5 = one-year of optimal health (QOL=1)
• Time Trade Off: If someone is indifferent between two states and one of them is QOLA = 1 then you can work out the value of QOLB
• LOLA * QOLA = LOLB * QOLB
• QOLB = LOLA / LOLB
• Standard gamble – varying probabilities to tell you how much a certain state of health is worth to someone
• Alternatives differ with respect to their timing – have to apply discounting.• Lower weight to costs and outcomes in the future discounted compared to
those which occur in the present.
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Lecture 8 - Decision Trees£500
£100
.5
.5
Expected Value of Node = (0.5x500)+(0.5x100) = 300
You use this to work out the ICER of your interventionYou have to do it twice – once using QALYs and once using COST
E
C
EFFECTSEFFECTS
COSTCOSTICER
BA
BA
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Decision Tree
Intervention
No Intervention
Accept
Do not Accept
Transmission
No Transmission
Transmission
No Transmission
Transmission
No Transmission
P=0.95
P=0.05
P=0.07
P=0.93
P=0.26
P=0.74
P=0.74
P=0.26
Treatment cost 1500
0
1500
0
1500
0
Intervention cost 800
800
0
0
0
0
Expected cost= (0.07 × 2300) + (0.93 × 800) = 161+744=905905
Expected cost= [0.26 × 1500) + (0.74 × 0)=390 390
Expected cost= (0.95 × 905) + (0.05 × 390) = 859.75+19.5=879.25 879.25
390
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Intervention
No Intervention
Accept
Do not Accept
Transmission
No Transmission
Transmission
No Transmission
Transmission
No Transmission
P=0.95
P=0.05
P=0.07
P=0.93
P=0.26
P=0.74
P=0.74
P=0.26
Expected outcomes= (0.07 × 5) + (0.93 × 40) = 0.35+37.2=37.5537.55
Expected cost= [0.26 × 5) + (0.74 × 40)=30.9 30.9
Expected cost= (0.95 × 37.55) + (0.05 × 30.9) =37.217537.2175
30.9
QALYS 5
40
5
40
5
40
Decision tree
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ReferencesMarisa Miraldo – Health Economics Slides 2012-13
Thank you to Marisa for providing us with great examples and teaching