health care planning decisions
DESCRIPTION
Health Care Planning Decisions. A Simulation Approach Patrick Riechel. Nationwide Healthcare Cost I mpact. Agenda. Tradeoffs Model Characterization Decisions to be made Decision criteria Findings. Find Best Decision Given Tradeoffs. VS. Model Characterization. Healthcare costs data - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Health Care Planning DecisionsA Simulation Approach
Patrick Riechel
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Nationwide Healthcare Cost Impact
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Agenda
Tradeoffs Model Characterization Decisions to be made Decision criteria Findings
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Find Best Decision Given Tradeoffs
Lower healthcare costsHappier, more loyal workforce
VS
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Model Characterization
Healthcare costs data Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Kaiser Family Foundation Town records
Salary data Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary
Education – Average Teacher Salaries
Employee Loss Function: inverse normal probability distribution function
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Employee Loss Function
x = Town total compensation
Region’s total compensation distribution
1-P(x ≤ X)
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Decisions
High-cost plan, low-cost plan, both, … Both with option to drop high-cost!
Drop when adoption of low-cost at a threshold percentage
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Decision criteria
6-year NPV of (total compensation + cost of rehiring) Mean 5% 95%
Total employees lost
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Findings Sensitive to indefinite assumptions!
Cost to rehire Employee loss function
Could get best decision to vary along entire spectrum Only use low-cost option Offer both plans from now until eternity Offer both plans from now until 0-100% of employees
have switched to low-cost plan
But… Option never got in the way and sometimes was useful!
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What was the point?
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Questions?