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  • 8/8/2019 HDFC Bank-RU2QFY2011-191010

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    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

    Particulars (` cr) 2QFY11 1QFY11 % chg (qoq) 2QFY10 % chg (yoy)NII 2,526 2,401 5.2 1,956 29.2Pre-prov. profit 1,807 1,749 3.3 1,593 13.4

    PAT 912 812 12.4 687 32.7Source: Company, Angel Research

    For 2QFY2011, HDFC Bank reported 32.7% yoy and 12.4% qoq growth in net

    profit to `912cr, in line with our estimate of `908cr. A stronger-than-industry

    growth in advances and deposits coupled with stable asset quality were the key

    highlights of the results. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on thestock.Robust performance on all parameters: Gross advances registered a healthygrowth of 6.4% qoq and 37.7% yoy, compared to the marginal industry qoq

    growth of ~0.6%. Deposits also registered an impressive growth of 6.7% qoq and

    30.4% yoy, compared to industry qoq growth of ~1.6%. The CASA ratio

    improved to 50.6% of total deposits in 2QFY2011 as against 49.2% in

    1QFY2011 and 50.3% in 2QFY2010. With reported NIMs at 4.2% in 2QFY2011

    (4.3% in 1QFY2011), the bank recorded NII growth of 29.2% yoy and 5.2% qoq

    to `2,526cr. The banks asset quality remained stable during the quarter, with

    gross NPAs at 1.2% and net NPAs at 0.3%. The NPA provision coverage ratio

    (excluding write-offs) stood at a healthy 77.8% in 2QFY2011 compared to 77.0%in 1QFY2011. Fee income grew by a moderate 16.0% yoy. The banks capital

    adequacy remained strong at 17.0%, with tier-1 constituting 74.7%.

    Outlook and Valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at 3.8x FY2012E ABV of`628, which is close to our target multiple of 4.0x (benchmarked at 30% premium

    to our Sensex target multiple). We believe HDFC Bank is well positioned for high

    qualitative growth, with the CASA and cost-to-income ratio returning to pre-CBoP

    levels. In our view, with strong capital adequacy and substantial branch

    expansion, the bank is set to further gain credit and CASA market share

    accompanied by reduction in NPA provision costs, as the economic environment

    continues to improve. We maintain an Accumulate rating on the stock, with aTarget Price of `2,510.

    Key FinancialsY/E March FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012ENII (` cr) 7,421 8,387 10,454 13,390% chg 42.0 13.0 24.6 28.1

    Net Profit (` cr) 2,245 2,949 3,961 5,429% chg 41.2 31.3 34.3 37.1

    NIM (%) 4.9 4.3 4.4 4.4

    EPS (`) 52.8 64.4 86.5 118.6P/E (x) 44.8 36.7 27.3 19.9

    P/ABV (x) 6.7 5.0 4.4 3.8

    RoA (%) 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7

    RoE (%) 16.9 16.1 17.2 20.4

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    ACCUMULATECMP `2,366

    Target Price `2,510

    Investment Period 12 Months

    Stock Info

    Sector Banking

    Market Cap (` cr) 1,09,433

    Beta 0.8

    52 Week High / Low 2,518/1,550

    Avg. Daily Volume 84,263

    Face Value (`) 10

    BSE Sensex 19,983

    Nifty 6,027

    Reuters Code HDBK.BO

    Bloomberg Code HDFCB@IN

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters 23.5

    MF / Banks / Indian Fls 18.7

    FII / NRIs / OCBs 48.5

    Indian Public / Others 9.3

    Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

    Sensex 11.5 16.0 13.8

    HDFC Bank 15.4 40.2 74.3

    Vaibhav Agrawal022 4040 3800 Ext: 333

    [email protected]

    Amit Rane022 4040 3800 Ext: 326

    [email protected]

    Shrinivas Bhutda022 4040 3800 Ext: 316

    [email protected]

    HDFC BankPerformance Highlights

    2QFY2011 Result Update | Banking

    October 19, 2010

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    HDFC Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

    October 19, 2010 2

    Exhibit 1:2QFY2011 performance

    Particulars (` cr) 2QFY11 1QFY11 % chg (qoq) 2QFY10 % chg (yoy)Interest earned 4,810 4,420 8.8 3,992 20.5

    Interest expenses 2,284 2,019 13.1 2,036 12.2Net interest income 2,526 2,401 5.2 1,956 29.2Non-interest income 961 940 2.2 1,007 (4.6)

    Operating income 3,487 3,341 4.4 2,963 17.7

    Operating expenses 1,680 1,592 5.5 1,370 22.6

    Pre-prov. profit 1,807 1,749 3.3 1,593 13.4Provisions & cont. 454 555 (18.1) 594 (23.5)

    PBT 1,353 1,194 13.3 999 35.4

    Prov. for taxes 440 382 15.3 311 41.5

    PAT 912 812 12.4 687 32.7EPS (`) 19.7 17.7 11.2 16.1 22.6

    Cost-to-income ratio (%) 48.2 47.7 46.2

    Effective tax rate (%) 32.6 32.0 31.2

    Net NPA (%) 0.3 0.3 0.5

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:2QFY2011 Actual v/s Estimates

    Particulars (` cr) Actual Estimates Var (%)Net interest income 2,526 2,577 (2.0)

    Non-interest income 961 986 (2.6)

    Operating income 3,487 3,564 (2.1)Operating expenses 1,680 1,730 (2.9)

    Pre-prov. profit 1,807 1,834 (1.4)Provisions & cont. 454 512 (11.3)

    PBT 1,353 1,321 2.4

    Prov. for taxes 440 413 6.7

    PAT 912 908 0.4Source: Company, Angel Research

    Strong business growth with profitability

    Gross advances registered robust growth of 37.7% yoy and 6.4% qoq, which was

    more than double the rate at which the banking industrys loan book grew.

    Adjusting for one-off movements in wholesale loans, growth in advances stood at

    32.0% yoy. The retail loan book grew by a healthy 30.8% yoy during 2QFY2011

    and constituted 51.7% of gross advances.

    Deposits reached `1,95,321cr in 2QFY2011, up by a robust 30.4% yoy and 6.7%

    qoq, compared to the marginal industry sequential growth rate of ~1.6% qoq. The

    CASA ratio improved to 50.6% of total deposits during 2QFY2011 as against

    49.2% in 1QFY2011 and 50.3% in 2QFY2010. On account of higher growth in

    advances on a yoy basis, the banks credit-deposit ratio improved to 80.4%, up

    ~450bp yoy. Reported NIM for the 2QFY2011 stood at 4.2% in 2QFY2011, as

    against 4.3% in 1QFY2011.

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    HDFC Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

    October 19, 2010 3

    Exhibit 3:Healthy Balance sheet growth...

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:...while maintaining margins

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Strong capital adequacy, branch expansion lead to CASA andcredit market share gains, respectively

    The banks total capital adequacy remained strong at 17.0%, with tier-1

    constituting 74.7% of the total CAR. On the back of this strong CAR, we expect the

    bank to increase its credit market share over FY2011-12. Accordingly, we have

    increased our credit growth estimates for FY2011 from 26% to 32% and for

    FY2012 from 27% to 30%.

    Importantly, the banks CASA deposits also grew by a robust 31.1% yoy and 9.8%

    sequentially, driven by 37.6% yoy growth in savings deposits and 22.4% yoy

    growth in current deposits. The strong traction in CASA growth can be attributed to

    the banks aggressive branch expansion during FY2010 and increasing

    productivity of the branch network of CBoP. The bank plans to open 150 branches

    during FY2011. Against this backdrop, we expect the bank to sustain its CASA

    ratio in the 4952% range, going forward, factoring in the strong market share

    gains on the CASA front as well. The banks cost-to-income ratio increased by

    52bp qoq to 48.2% in 2QFY2011 compared to 47.7% in 1QFY2011.

    Exhibit 5:CASA continues to remain strong

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:Network expansion at decent pace

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    7.211.2

    21.1

    28.7

    42.238.2

    11.3 12.06.9

    17.2

    25.630.4

    -

    15.0

    30.0

    45.0

    1QFY10

    2QFY10

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    Advances Deposits(%)

    4.14.2

    4.34.2

    4.14.2

    4.4 4.34.2

    3.8

    4.0

    4.2

    4.4

    4.6

    1QFY09

    2QFY09

    3QFY09

    4QFY09

    1QFY10

    2QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    (%)

    45 44

    40

    44 45

    5052

    49 51

    35.0

    40.0

    45.0

    50.0

    55.0

    1QFY09

    2QFY09

    3QFY09

    4QFY09

    1QFY10

    2QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    (%)

    1,4

    12

    1,4

    16

    1,5

    06

    1,7

    25

    1,7

    25

    1,7

    25

    1,7

    65

    3,295 3,382 3,573 3,898

    4,232 4,393

    4,721

    -

    1,250

    2,500

    3,750

    5,000

    -

    400

    800

    1,200

    1,600

    2,000

    4QFY09

    1QFY10

    2QFY10

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    Branches ATMs (RHS)

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    HDFC Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

    October 19, 2010 4

    Exhibit 7:Stable cost-to-income ratio

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Stable asset quality

    The banks asset quality remained stable sequentially, with gross NPAs at 1.2%

    and net NPAs at 0.3%. In absolute terms, gross NPAs increased by `50cr

    sequentially to `1,841cr, while net NPAs declined marginally by `4cr qoq to

    `409cr in 2QFY2011. The NPA coverage ratio improved on a sequential basis to

    77.8% in 2QFY2011 (77.0% in 1QFY2011 and 70.3% in 2QFY2010). Total

    restructured assets, including applications received for restructuring, were 0.3% of

    gross advances, which is among the lowest in the sector.

    Total provisions during 2QFY2011 stood at `454cr, of which `445cr was towards

    NPAs. Provisions to average assets declined from 1.1% in FY2010 to 0.7% in

    2QFY2011.

    Exhibit 8:Steady asset quality

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    541

    612

    582

    504

    559

    554

    597

    667

    711

    749

    775

    878

    892

    821

    816

    963

    925

    969

    56 55

    50

    47 48 4648 48 48

    30

    40

    50

    60

    -

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,4001,600

    1,800

    1QFY09

    2QFY09

    3QFY09

    4QFY09

    1QFY10

    2QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    Staff costs (` c r) Other opex (` cr) Cost-to-income ratio (%, RHS)

    1,5

    03

    1,6

    76

    1,9

    11

    1,9

    88

    2,1

    63

    2,0

    27

    1,9

    74

    1,8

    17

    1,7

    91

    1,8

    41

    496

    584

    614

    628

    656

    602

    544

    392

    413

    409

    6765

    68 6870 70

    72

    7877 78

    50

    60

    70

    80

    -

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    1QFY09

    2QFY09

    3QFY09

    4QFY09

    1QFY10

    2QFY10

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    Gross NPAs (` cr) Net NPAs ( cr) NPA coverage (Calc, %, RHS)

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    HDFC Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

    October 19, 2010 5

    Moderate growth in Fee income

    Non-interest income stood at `961cr, down 8.7% yoy due to treasury loss of `52cr

    in 2QFY2011 as compared to treasury profit of `163cr in 2QFY2010. Fee and

    commission income rose by a moderate 16.0% yoy to `857cr in 2QFY2011 as

    compared to `739cr in 2QFY2010. Income from forex, derivatives and others

    grew a muted 3.3% yoy to `156cr.

    Exhibit 9:Break-up of non-interest income

    Particulars(` cr) 2QFY11 1QFY11 % chg(qoq) 2QFY10* % chg(yoy)Fees & Commission 857 746 14.9 739 16.0

    Treasury Income (52) 22 - 163 -

    Forex Income & Others 156 173 (9.8) 151 3.3

    961 940 2.2 1,053 (8.7)Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * reclassified figures.

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    HDFC Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

    October 19, 2010 6

    Investment Arguments

    Strong capital adequacy and expanding network to sustain

    traction in credit market share and CASA depositsIn 2QFY2011, the banks capital adequacy stood at a strong 17.0%, with tier-1

    comprising a substantial 74.7. On the back of this strong CAR, we expect the bank

    to increase its credit market share over FY2011-12. Accordingly, we have

    increased our credit growth estimates for FY2011 from 26% to 32% and for

    FY2012 from 27% to 30%.

    HDFC Banks strong and profitable growth over the last five years (FY200510)

    was supported by significant traction in CASA market share (from 3.3% in FY2005

    to 5.2% in FY2010). The banks dominant transaction banking business lies at the

    core of its strength in CASA deposits. Moreover, along with the merger of CBoP,

    the banks branch network increased by 30% CAGR during FY200510. By

    increasing CASA mobilisation at the branches, and leveraging its comprehensive

    product range and strong brand, we believe HDFC Bank would be in a position to

    extract substantial operating leverage front, increase its CASA market share and

    improve NIM.

    Comprehensive product portfolio and effective cross-selling to

    sustain traction in fee income

    Apart from the traditional CEB and forex income, the bank earns substantial fee

    income from transaction banking, cards and third-party distribution, among

    others. Overall, the banks core fee income increased at a CAGR of 30% overFY200810, and at around 1.7% of ATA in FY2010. It was one of the best in the

    sector and marked another significant competitive advantage over peers.

    Improvement in asset quality

    The bank has been able to improve its asset quality as reflected in the provisions to

    average assets, which has declined from 1.1% in FY2010 to 0.7% in 1HFY2011.

    Accordingly, we have factored in slippages of 1.7% and 1.5% in FY2011 and

    FY2012 respectively, as against slippages of 2.6% in FY2010. We expect the

    provisions to average assets to decline from 1.1% in FY2010 to 0.7% in FY2011

    and to 0.5% in FY2012. Hence, we expect the bank to post 35.7% CAGR in PAT

    over FY2010-12. RoE is expected to improve from 16.1% in FY2010 to 20.4% in

    FY2012.

    Outlook and Valuation

    We believe HDFC is among the most competitive banks in the sector, with an A-list

    management at the helm of affairs that has one of the best track records in the

    sector. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 19.9x FY2012E EPS of `118.6 and 3.8x

    FY2012E ABV of `628. We believe HDFC Bank is well positioned for high

    qualitative growth, with the CASA and cost-to-income ratio returning to pre-CBoP

    levels. HDFC Bank has commanded a 32.9% premium to the Sensex in terms of

    its one-year forward P/E multiple over the last five years. We expect the premiumto be around its historical average on account of the robust growth and RoE

    prospects over the next two years.

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    HDFC Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

    October 19, 2010 7

    The stock is currently trading at 3.8x FY2012E ABV, which is close to our target

    multiple of 4.0x (benchmarked at 30% premium to our Sensex target multiple).

    Hence,we recommend Accumulate on the stock, with a Target Price of `2,510.Exhibit 10:Key assumptions

    Particulars (%) Earlier Estimates Revised EstimatesFY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012ECredit growth 26.0 27.0 32.0 30.0

    Deposit growth 27.0 26.0 27.0 28.0

    CASA ratio 52.2 52.0 52.2 52.0

    NIMs 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4

    Other income growth 12.5 28.1 9.0 26.4

    Growth in staff expenses 30.0 29.2 23.0 28.5

    Growth in other expenses 20.0 29.2 20.0 28.5

    Slippages 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.5

    Coverage ratio 86.4 86.4 83.6 89.4

    Treasury gain/(loss) (% of investments) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 11:Change in Estimates

    Particulars (` cr) FY2011E FY2012EEarlierEstimates RevisedEstimates Var. (%) EarlierEstimates RevisedEstimates Var. (%)NII 10,523 10,454 (0.7) 13,552 13,390 (1.2)

    Non-interest income 4,288 4,152 (3.2) 5,492 5,250 (4.4)Operating income 14,811 14,606 (1.4) 19,045 18,640 (2.1)Operating expenses 7,146 6,986 (2.2) 9,229 8,977 (2.7)

    Pre-prov. profit 7,664 7,620 (0.6) 9,815 9,663 (1.5)Provisions & cont. 1,970 1,858 (5.7) 1,829 1,766 (3.4)

    PBT 5,695 5,762 1.2 7,986 7,897 (1.1)

    Prov. for taxes 1,780 1,801 1.2 2,496 2,468 (1.1)

    PAT 3,915 3,961 1.2 5,490 5,429 (1.1)Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 12:Angel EPS forecast v/s consensus

    Year (`) Angel Forecast Bloomberg Consensus Var.(%)FY2011E 86.5 84.6 2.3

    FY2012E 118.6 110.7 7.2

    Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research

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    HDFC Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

    October 19, 2010 8

    Exhibit 13:P/ABV band

    Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit 14:P/E band

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 15:Premium/Discount to Sensex - HDFC Bank

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    3,500

    Apr-02

    Nov-0

    2

    Jun-0

    3

    Jan-0

    4

    Aug-0

    4

    Mar-05

    Oct-05

    May-0

    6

    Dec-0

    6

    Jul-07

    Feb-0

    8

    Sep-0

    8

    Apr-09

    Nov-0

    9

    Jun-1

    0

    Jan-1

    1

    Price (`) 2.00x 2.75x 3.50x 4.25x 5.00x

    0

    400

    800

    1,200

    1,600

    2,000

    2,400

    2,800

    3,200

    3,600

    Apr-01

    Oct-01

    Apr-02

    Oct-02

    Apr-03

    Oct-03

    Apr-04

    Oct-04

    Apr-05

    Oct-05

    Apr-06

    Oct-06

    Apr-07

    Oct-07

    Apr-08

    Oct-08

    Apr-09

    Oct-09

    Apr-10

    Oct-10

    Price (`) 15x 22x 29x 36x

    (30)

    (10)

    10

    30

    50

    70

    90

    Mar-06

    Jul-06

    Oct-0

    6

    Jan-0

    7

    Apr-07

    Jul-07

    Oct-0

    7

    Jan-0

    8

    Apr-08

    Jul-08

    Oct-0

    8

    Jan-0

    9

    Apr-09

    Jul-09

    Oct-0

    9

    Jan-1

    0

    Apr-10

    Jul-10

    Oct-1

    0

    Premium/Discount to Sensex Avg. Historical Premium

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    HDFC Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

    October 19, 2010 9

    Exhibit 16:Recommendation summary

    Company Reco. CMP(`) Tgt. price(`) Upside(%) FY2012EP/ABV (x) FY2012ETgt P/ABV (x) FY2012EP/E (x) FY2010-12EEPS CAGR (%) FY2012ERoA (%) FY2012ERoE (%) AxisBk Buy 1,466 1,70516.3 2.8 3.2 14.1 29.6 1.6 21.1

    FedBk Neutral 457 - - 1.3 - 9.6 32.6 1.4 14.8

    HDFCBk Accumulate 2,366 2,510 6.1 3.8 4.0 19.9 35.7 1.7 20.4ICICIBk Buy 1,118 1,350 20.8 2.3 2.9 18.1 31.0 1.4 15.5

    SIB Neutral 27 - - 1.6 - 9.3 19.1 1.0 18.3

    YesBk Neutral 347 - - 2.8 - 17.6 18.5 1.3 17.1

    BOI Neutral 519 - - 1.6 - 8.3 37.8 0.9 20.4

    CorpBk Neutral 717 - - 1.3 - 6.8 13.8 1.0 20.5

    DenaBk Accumulate 116 127 8.9 1.0 1.1 6.1 3.0 0.7 17.7

    IndBk Neutral 293 - - 1.4 - 7.0 9.0 1.4 21.5

    IOB Accumulate 157 172 9.8 1.1 1.2 7.8 24.5 0.7 14.8

    OBC Neutral 480 - - 1.2 - 7.2 21.6 0.9 18.1PNB Neutral 1,299 - - 1.8 - 8.6 10.6 1.2 22.3

    SBI Accumulate 3,122 3,556 13.9 1.9 2.0 13.7 24.0 1.1 19.2

    UcoBk Neutral 119 - - 1.1 - 5.1 12.0 0.8 24.9

    UnionBk Neutral 404 - - 1.6 - 7.2 17.2 1.1 23.9

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: P/ABV of the core banks

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    HDFC Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

    October 19, 2010 10

    Income statement

    Y/E March (` cr) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12ENet Interest Income 2,546 3,710 5,228 7,421 8,387 10,454 13,390

    - YoY Growth (%) 43.2 45.7 40.9 42.0 13.0 24.6 28.1Other Income 1,214 1,510 2,205 3,471 3,811 4,152 5,250

    - YoY Growth (%) 90.4 24.4 46.0 57.4 9.8 9.0 26.4

    Operating Income 3,759 5,220 7,433 10,892 12,197 14,606 18,640

    - YoY Growth (%) 55.7 38.8 42.4 46.5 12.0 19.7 27.6

    Operating Expenses 1,691 2,421 3,746 5,685 5,764 6,986 8,977

    - YoY Growth (%) 55.8 43.2 54.7 51.8 1.4 21.2 28.5

    Pre - Provision Profit 2,068 2,799 3,688 5,207 6,433 7,620 9,663

    - YoY Growth (%) 55.5 35.3 31.7 41.2 23.5 18.5 26.8

    Prov. & Cont. 815 1,160 1,407 1,908 2,144 1,858 1,766

    - YoY Growth (%) 132.2 42.4 21.2 35.6 12.4 (13.3) (5.0)

    Profit Before Tax 1,254 1,639 2,281 3,299 4,289 5,762 7,897

    - YoY Growth (%) 28.0 30.7 39.2 44.6 30.0 34.3 37.1

    Prov. for Taxation 383 497 691 1,054 1,340 1,801 2,468

    - as a % of PBT 30.5 30.3 30.3 32.0 31.3 31.3 31.3

    PAT 871 1,141 1,590 2,245 2,949 3,961 5,429

    - YoY Growth (%) 30.8 31.1 39.3 41.2 31.3 34.3 37.1

    Balance sheetY/E March (` cr) FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12EShare Capital 313 319 354 425 458 458 458

    Reserve & Surplus 4,986 6,114 11,143 14,627 21,065 24,092 28,267

    Deposits 55,797 68,298 100,769 142,812 167,404 212,604 272,133

    - Growth (%) 53.5 22.4 47.5 41.7 17.2 27.0 28.0

    Borrowings 2,858 2,815 4,595 2,686 6,563 7,455 9,481

    Tier 2 Capital 1,702 3,283 3,249 16,474 19,046 25,141 32,684

    Other Liab. & Prov. 7,850 10,407 13,067 6,246 7,923 6,352 8,108

    Total Liabil ities 73,506 91,236 133,177 183,271 222,459 276,102 351,130Cash Balances 3,307 5,182 12,553 13,527 15,483 14,882 20,410

    Bank Balances 3,612 3,971 2,225 3,979 14,459 11,044 14,045

    Investments 28,394 30,565 49,394 58,818 58,608 74,132 88,197

    Advances 35,061 46,945 63,427 98,883 125,831 166,096 2

    - Growth (%) 37.1 33.9 35.1 55.9 27.3 32.0 30.0

    Fixed Assets 855 967 1,175 1,707 2,123 2,556 3,153

    Other Assets 2,277 3,605 4,403 6,357 5,955 7,391 9,400

    Total Assets 73,506 91,236 133,177 183,271 222,459 276,102 351,130- Growth (%) 42.7 24.1 46.0 37.6 21.4 24.1 27.2

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    HDFC Bank | 2QFY2011 Result Update

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    Ratio analysis

    Y/E March FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12EProfitability ratios (%)NIMs 4.3 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.3 4.4 4.4Cost to Income Ratio 45.0 46.4 50.4 52.2 47.3 47.8 48.2

    RoA 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7

    RoE 17.7 19.5 17.7 16.9 16.1 17.2 20.4

    B/S ratios (%)CASA Ratio 55.4 57.7 54.5 44.4 52.0 52.2 52.0

    Credit/Deposit Ratio 62.8 68.7 62.9 69.2 75.2 78.1 79.3

    CAR 11.4 13.1 13.6 13.8 15.7 16.0 16.7

    - Tier I 8.6 8.6 10.3 9.3 12.0 10.4 9.6

    Asset Quality (%)Gross NPAs 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.9

    Net NPAs 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1

    Slippages 2.2 2.2 2.5 5.3 2.6 1.7 1.5

    Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.5

    Provision Coverage 69.5 69.2 67.1 68.4 78.4 83.6 89.4

    Per Share Data (`)EPS 27.8 35.7 44.9 52.8 64.4 86.5 118.6

    ABVPS (75% cover.) 168.3 200.2 322.4 350.8 470.2 536.3 627.5

    DPS 5.5 7.0 8.5 8.5 12.0 17.5 23.5

    Valuation RatiosPER (x) 85.1 66.2 52.7 44.8 36.7 27.3 19.9

    P/ABVPS (x) 14.1 11.8 7.3 6.7 5.0 4.4 3.8

    Dividend Yield 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0

    DuPont AnalysisNII 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.1 4.2 4.3

    (-) Prov. Exp. 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.6

    Adj. NII 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.1 3.4 3.7

    Treasury 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0

    Int. Sens. Inc. 2.8 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.2 3.5 3.7

    Other Inc. 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.7

    Op. Inc. 4.7 4.9 5.4 5.7 5.0 5.1 5.4

    Opex 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.6 2.8 2.8 2.9PBT 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5

    Taxes 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8

    RoA 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7Leverage 12.7 14.0 12.5 11.9 11.1 10.8 11.8

    RoE 17.7 19.5 17.7 16.9 16.1 17.2 20.4

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    Disclosure of Interest Statement HDFC Bank

    1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

    2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes

    3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

    4. Broking relationship with company covered No

    Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

    Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

    Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angeltrade.com

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