Hazardous Weather Testbed / Storm Prediction Center

2011 Spring Experiment

Chris SiewertProving Ground Liaison

OU-CIMMS / SPC

Goals of the Experiment• Demonstrate products and capabilities available on GOES-R

within an operational forecast/warning environment– Severe weather (forecast and warning)– QPF– CI

• Build connections with non-satellite research community– Radar (dual-pol, MRMS)– NWP– LMA

• Discover product, display and demonstration limitations / successes and suggest improvements

• Define product training and display requirements

2010 Spring Experiment Overview• 4-week period (17 May – 18 June) during central plains peak

severe weather season• 20 Visiting Scientists and 15 NWS forecasters invited by the

GOES-R Proving Ground• 8 Proving Ground products demonstrated

– Cloud and moisture imagery– Convective initiation (3 products)– Overshooting-top / Enhanced-V detection– Total lightning detection (2 products)– Severe hail probability

• Real-time forecast and warning exercises using operational decision support tools (N-AWIPS/AWIPS)

• Weather Event Simulator (WES) cases developed and presented for training purposes of experimental products

2011 Changes• New EWP morning shift

– Cooperate with new EFP CI desk– Drive discussion of selecting warning domain– Participate in forecasting/monitoring CI in early afternoon

• Participate in new 1pm daily briefing– EWP participants discuss previous day in detail– EFP participants provide forecast guidance– Simulates national center / WFO interaction

• New products– SATCAST (GOES-R proxy CI product)– Nearcast– Simulated band differences

Convective Initiation• UWCI / Cloud-top Cooling Rate

(Sieglaff et al., 2010)– Box-averaged 0-1 hour nowcast of

convective initiation and 15-minute cloud-top cooling rates

– GOES-E/W and nighttime capable• SATCAST (Meckalski and Bedka,

2006)– Object-based 0-1 hour nowcast of

yes/no convective initiation– Utilizes IR BT cooling rates and multi-

spectral information– GOES-E and daytime only

Overshooting-top / Enhanced-V

• Based on GOES-13 IR BT spatial testing (see Bedka et al., 2010)– Provided by UW-CIMSS

• Detects overshooting-top and thermal couplet features in mature cloud tops– Provides detections and relative

magnitudes– Operates day/night and can

operate during rapid scan

Total Lightning Detection• Pseudo-GLM

– Data from ground-based total lightning detection networks• Huntsville, AL; Washington, DC;

Melbourne, FL; and Norman, OK– Raw sources sorted into flashes and

interpolated to an 8km grid– Running 2-minute average

• Simulated lightning threat– Based on NSSL-WRF 0Z 4km data– Estimates total lightning from

vertical ice content and flux within cloud objects (see McCaul et al., 2009)

Simulated Satellite Imagery

• Produced from the 0Z 4km NSSL-WRF– All 9 non-solar IR bands and visible band 2 available from

UW-CIMSS/CIRA– Hourly output available for 12-36 hr forecast periods– Ability to simply produce unique GOES-R band differences– Demonstration focused on:

• Visible• 3 WV channels• Standard window IR• Band differencing (10-12 μm)

10-12 μm Channel Difference

• Bands currently not available on GOES• 10.35 μm channel is a ‘clean’ window– Brightness temperature very sensitive to surface

temperature

• 12.3 μm channel is sensitive to column WV– Brightness temperature cools as WV increases

• Difference becomes more positive as low- and mid-level WV increases

Nearcast• GOES sounder PW / theta-e

fields advected using a Lagrangian model– 9-hour forecast

• Multi-layer PW difference / gradient– 900-300mb, 900-700mb and

700-300mb• Level theta-e and multi-

layer theta-e difference– 500 mb and 780 mb level– 780-500 mb difference

Severe Hail Probability

• Based on satellite IR and RUC analysis fields– Provides probability of

severe hail (>1” and >2”) within grid box out to 3 hours• 25 x 25 km grid boxes

– Hourly forecasts update with new satellite data

– Provided by CIRA

OrganizationsRoles and Responsibilities

• NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed– “NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) is a facility jointly managed by

the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), and the NWS Oklahoma City/Norman Weather Forecast Office (OUN) within the National Weather Center… The HWT is designed to accelerate the transition of promising new meteorological insights and technologies into advances in forecasting and warning for hazardous mesoscale weather events throughout the United States.” (Steve Weiss, EFP Operations Plan)

• Experimental Forecast Program (SPC/HPC/NSSL)– “…predicting hazardous mesoscale weather events on time scales ranging

from a few hours to a week in advance, and on spatial domains ranging from several counties to the CONUS.” (Steve Weiss, EFP Operations Plan)

• Experimental Warning Program (NSSL)– “…designed to test and evaluate new applications, techniques, and products to

support Weather Forecast Office (WFO) severe convective weather warning operations.” (Greg Stumpf, EWP Operations Plan)

OrganizationsRoles and Responsibilities

• Products and training– UW-CIMSS

• Convective initiation• Overshooting-tops / thermal

couplet detection• Simulated satellite imagery• Nearcast

– CIRA• Simulated satellite imagery• Severe hail probability

– SPoRT / UAH• Convective initiation• NSSL-WRF Lightning threat

– SPoRT / NSSL• Pseudo-Geostationary Lightning

Mapper

• Personnel and support– NSSL

• Experimental Warning Program• Experimental Forecast Program

(CI)– SPC

• Experimental Forecast Program (Severe)

– HPC• Experimental Forecast Program

(QPF)

Experiment Schedule

• Experimental Forecast Program– May 9 - June 10, 2011– Monday-Friday 7:30am-4pm

• Experimental Warning Program– May 9-27, June 6-10 (no operations Memorial Day

week)– Monday-Thursday 10am-9pm– Friday 10am-1pm

Day in the life of the ExperimentExperimental Forecast Program

• 7:30am-8:15am– Subjective verification and

discussion of previous day’s forecasts

• 8:15am-10:30am– Morning forecasts issued

• 10:30am-noon– Subjective/objective

verification of previous day’s model performance

• Noon-1pm– Lunch

• 1pm-1:30pm– Joint EFP/EWP daily briefing

• 1:30pm-3:30pm– Update forecasts

• 3:30pm-4pm– Daily briefing and discussion

of the day’s forecasts

Day in the Life of the ExperimentExperimental Warning Program

• Monday– 10am-2pm

• New participant orientation• Project training seminars

– 2pm-6pm• WES training / informal IOP

• Tues-Thurs– 10am-noon

• Issue initial AFD– Noon-1pm

• Lunch– 1pm-1:30pm

• EFP/EWP joint briefing

• Tues-Thurs– 1:30pm-2:30pm

• EWP daily briefing– 2:30pm-4pm

• CI monitoring, EFP CI desk collaboration and final AFD issued

– 4pm-9pm• Warning IOP or training/archive

feedback• Friday

– 10am-12pm• Weekly debrief

– 12pm-1pm• Optional brown bag lunch

seminars

Capturing Feedback• Real-time blogging

http://goesrhwt.blogspot.com/– During forecast/warning exercises – Participants are also encouraged to

blog following forecast/warning exercises

• Web-based surveys – Immediately following

forecast/warning operations• Daily post-mortem discussions– Between visiting scientists and

forecasters

Thanks for your attention!

chris.siewert@noaa.gov