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HaysConsolidatedIndependentSchoolDistrict

Quarterly Report4Q17

Economic Conditions – Austin Area (December 2017)

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UnemploymentRate

-0.5%

34,950 new jobsNational rate 1.2%

Job Growth

3.2%636 more

starts than 4Q16

AnnualHome Starts

16,037

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 3.9%Texas 3.7%

Austin MSA 2.7%Hays County 2.8%

District Housing Market2017 District Home Sales by Transaction Type

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Existing Home Sales59.17%

New Home Sales37.29%

REO Sales2.28%

Foreclosures1.27%

2017 DistrictHome Sales

by Type

• Within the district there were more than 3,070 home sales in 2017, and roughly 37% were new homes

• The district average sale price for a new home in 2017 was $277,625• The district average sale price for an existing home in 2017 was $255,655

Rank District NameAnnual Starts

Annual Closings VDL Future

1 Leander ISD 2,425 2,397 3,808 12,0882 Hays CISD 1,498 1,518 2,263 33,1383 Austin ISD 1,756 1,473 1,472 11,2914 Pflugerville ISD 1,620 1,397 1,707 10,9345 Round Rock ISD 1,530 1,280 1,826 6,0296 Georgetown ISD 1,357 1,173 2,478 18,1057 Hutto ISD 954 949 1,085 5,0128 Manor ISD 1,104 888 1,435 15,7169 Lake Travis ISD 723 877 1,899 5,487

10 Del Valle ISD 818 695 1,031 26,67011 Liberty Hill ISD 752 655 1,657 11,39112 Dripping Springs ISD 589 499 1,237 6,67113 Jarrell ISD 331 345 350 6,99314 San Marcos CISD 276 195 313 8,49015 Bastrop ISD 125 115 1,436 19,04116 Taylor ISD 59 62 89 65517 Lockhart ISD 7 46 14 1,65418 Lago Vista ISD 44 38 129 15419 Eanes ISD 55 34 129 15420 Elgin ISD 20 14 235 5,893

Austin New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q17

4*Totals adjusted based on additional TD research

New Housing Activity

• Hays CISD had nearly 1,500 new home starts in 2017• Within the district there were more than 1,500 new home closings in

2017, the most annual closings in more than 8 years• The district new home inventory is slightly low at 5 month’s supply

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Hays CISD

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Starts Closings

Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20171Q 155 203 302 257 472 390 1Q 119 206 222 278 404 4012Q 212 240 293 309 326 462 2Q 204 217 296 300 359 3413Q 244 279 335 456 404 419 3Q 194 209 286 306 417 4434Q 193 251 242 370 187 227 4Q 201 271 312 379 191 333

Total 804 973 1,172 1,392 1,389 1,498 Total 718 903 1,116 1,263 1,371 1,518

Annual Closing Distribution

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Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q17 (Ranked by Annual Closings)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings

Quarter Closings VDL Future

1 Shadow Creek 292 97 59 2072 Sunfield 216 49 280 3,4733 Blanco Vista 187 46 263 1,2374 Meadows of Kyle 72 24 2 05 Stonefield 67 6 116 606 Cypress Forest 63 13 77 1737 Bunton Creek Village 63 10 234 688 Kensington Trails 62 4 0 09 Creekside Village 51 17 210 0

10 Brooks Crossing 50 10 0 0TOTALS 1,123 276 1,241 5,218

Vacant Developed Lots

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Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q17 (Ranked by remaining VDL)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings VDL Future

1 Sunfield 216 280 3,4732 Blanco Vista 187 263 1,2373 Bunton Creek Village 63 234 684 Creekside Village 51 210 05 Crosswinds (Pfluger) 10 143 4716 Avana Circle C (HCISD) 12 142 07 Stonefield 67 116 608 La Ventana 13 111 09 Plum Creek 35 110 3,465

10 Cool Springs 0 99 273TOTALS 654 1,708 9,047

Future Lots

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Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q17 (Ranked by Future Inventory)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings VDL Future

1 La Salle 0 0 7,0002 Blanco River Ranch 0 0 4,0003 Sunfield 216 280 3,4734 Plum Creek 35 110 3,4655 Pecan Woods 0 0 3,1556 Anthem 0 0 2,2007 Kyle Estates 0 0 1,6088 Blanco Vista 187 263 1,2379 Bailey Tract 0 0 800

10 Crosswinds (Science Hall) 0 0 699TOTALS 438 653 27,637

Overall Housing DataBy Elementary Attendance Zone

Highest activity in the category

Second highest activity in the category

Third highest activity in the category 9

Elementary School Annual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings

UnderConst. Inventory VDL Future

BLANCO VISTA 196 29 187 46 51 90 263 1,237

BUDA 69 12 93 21 21 29 72 909

CAMINO REAL 9 0 16 0 0 0 64 93

CARPENTER HILL 66 30 41 7 51 58 359 548

ELM GROVE 16 0 62 8 3 10 0 0

FUENTES 62 4 63 10 4 27 234 2,511

HEMPHILL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10,610

KYLE 108 2 105 27 5 29 210 808

NEGLEY 104 22 98 18 38 61 187 10,041

PFLUGER 340 63 302 103 72 131 202 771

SCIENCE HALL 47 1 62 4 3 12 0 909

TOBIAS 74 3 109 8 25 28 211 1,041

TOM GREEN 407 61 380 81 96 177 461 3,660

UHLAND 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Grand Total 1,498 227 1,518 333 369 652 2,263 33,138

District Housing Overview

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• Hays CISD has more than 2,200 lots available to build on

• The district has roughly 33,100 planned future lots

• Of those, groundwork is underway on roughly 1,500 lots

• In 4Q17, there were more than 770 lots delivered within Hays CISD

Residential ActivitySunfield

• 4,275 total single family lots• 3,473 futures• 859 occupied• 75 under construction• 280 VDL• 100 lots delivered in Phase 2

Section 8 in 4Q17• 254 new home starts in 2017• Building 250-280 homes a year• Tom Green Elementary

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Residential Activity

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Shadow Creek• 1,701 total single family lots• 207 futures• 1,378 occupied• 27 under construction• 59 VDL• Streets paving on final 207 lots,

delivering spring 2018• Closed 97 homes in 4Q17• Built out by mid to late 2019• Pfluger Elementary

Crosswinds• 1,397 total single family lots• Split between Pfluger and

Science Hall Elementary• All current activity within the

Pfluger Elementary Zone• 10 occupied• 45 under construction• 143 VDL• Building 100 homes in 2018

Residential Activity

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Cypress Forest• 347 total single family lots• 173 futures• 63 occupied• 24 under construction• 77 VDL• Building 65 homes a year• $275K - $450K• Negley Elementary

Driskell• Preliminary plat for 539

single family lots and 1 multi-family lot approved November 2017

• Groundwork could start late 2018 pending land sale

• Kyle Elementary

Stagecoach Forest• Preliminary plat approved for 270

single family lots in June 2017• Phase 1 and 1A with 119 lots

approved October 2017• Groundwork underway on Phase

1 and 1A• Homes starting by fall 2018• Kyle Elementary

Residential Activity

Blanco River Ranch• AKA 6 Creeks• Approx. 4,000 future single family lots• Phase 1 Section 1 with 110 lots

preliminary plat under review with the City of Kyle, submitted January 2018

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Residential Activity- Plum Creek Multi-Family

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Fairway Landings at Plum Creek

216 total tax credit unitsunder construction

Pre-leasing underwayFirst residents March 2018All complete summer 2018

Plum Creek Sections 11H & 11G

17 acres with preliminary plat for 2 multi-family

sites under review

Plum Creek VueApartments

180 units under constructionFirst units leasing late 2018

Ariza at Plum Creek349 units under constructionFirst units leasing late 2018 Oaks on Marketplace

Apartments254 units complete and leasing

2017/18 Multi-Family Yield Analysis

• Hays CISD has 1,726 students currently residing in 4,639 multi-family units

• The district average apartment yield is 0.31

• The district average manufactured home yield is 0.60

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Charter School Impact

IDEA - Kyle• New IDEA Charter School

campus coming to Kyle • Opening Fall 2018• Grades K – 2 and 6th

• Expecting to have 480 students in it’s first year

• Adding a new grade each year until grade 12 is reached

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Ten Year Forecast- Charter School ImpactBy Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

• Hays CISD may enroll more than 20,000 students by 2019

• 5 year growth = 1,472• Fall 2022/23 enrollment = 21,227• 10 year growth = 4,291• Fall 2027/28 enrollment = 24,046

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Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth%

Growth2013/14 620 1,348 1,348 1,317 1,380 1,325 1,368 1,303 1,362 1,258 1,337 1,266 1,017 1,006 17,2552014/15 601 1,344 1,425 1,396 1,386 1,408 1,397 1,405 1,358 1,414 1,372 1,307 1,129 1,006 17,948 693 4.02%2015/16 626 1,298 1,406 1,481 1,438 1,455 1,468 1,434 1,457 1,402 1,542 1,356 1,186 1,105 18,654 706 3.93%2016/17 637 1,349 1,363 1,446 1,517 1,489 1,505 1,512 1,486 1,475 1,579 1,463 1,249 1,145 19,215 561 3.01%2017/18 677 1,411 1,468 1,417 1,451 1,587 1,563 1,513 1,549 1,516 1,640 1,490 1,284 1,189 19,755 540 2.81%2018/19 660 1,318 1,371 1,404 1,448 1,531 1,637 1,494 1,555 1,590 1,690 1,550 1,392 1,237 19,877 122 0.62%2019/20 660 1,391 1,395 1,417 1,439 1,520 1,553 1,561 1,538 1,564 1,777 1,596 1,431 1,355 20,198 321 1.61%2020/21 660 1,449 1,463 1,419 1,452 1,499 1,562 1,486 1,622 1,576 1,749 1,676 1,474 1,369 20,457 259 1.28%2021/22 660 1,503 1,530 1,517 1,465 1,524 1,543 1,492 1,536 1,656 1,759 1,645 1,551 1,413 20,794 337 1.65%2022/23 660 1,535 1,602 1,585 1,563 1,532 1,568 1,560 1,548 1,561 1,850 1,658 1,519 1,485 21,227 433 2.08%2023/24 660 1,554 1,618 1,642 1,643 1,644 1,574 1,588 1,617 1,581 1,742 1,742 1,532 1,454 21,591 365 1.72%2024/25 660 1,610 1,706 1,708 1,694 1,728 1,693 1,593 1,643 1,648 1,763 1,642 1,609 1,467 22,164 572 2.65%2025/26 660 1,650 1,758 1,760 1,761 1,781 1,783 1,711 1,647 1,673 1,844 1,662 1,516 1,539 22,746 582 2.63%2026/27 660 1,688 1,810 1,825 1,811 1,849 1,835 1,803 1,770 1,678 1,867 1,737 1,535 1,452 23,320 574 2.52%2027/28 660 1,743 1,854 1,878 1,878 1,902 1,907 1,854 1,863 1,801 1,873 1,759 1,603 1,471 24,046 726 3.11%

Ten Year ForecastBy Elementary Campus

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HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSCampus Capacity 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28

BLANCO VISTA ELEMENTARY 800 769 815 605 634 666 694 749 799 842 871 894 910BUDA ELEMENTARY 702 547 581 559 569 566 601 633 639 668 691 715 753CAMINO REAL ELEMENTARY 800 784 789 749 738 734 725 742 757 769 763 757 752CARPENTER HILL ELEMENTARY 800 670 705 666 653 658 666 692 709 739 755 769 791ELM GROVE ELEMENTARY 720 780 898 914 925 937 915 905 911 906 891 874 871FUENTES ELEMENTARY 720 623 607 570 583 584 605 619 650 693 719 742 763GREEN ELEMENTARY 714 724 754 754 764 830 877 935 988 1,053 1,119 1,185 1,254HEMPHILL ELEMENTARY 720 848 825 392 384 362 351 343 359 384 404 425 449KYLE ELEMENTARY 770 683 709 687 635 640 666 674 703 716 729 739 745NEGLEY ELEMENTARY 780 759 768 751 755 748 780 833 867 926 985 1,043 1,109PFLUGER ELEMENTARY 800 678 677 704 719 758 810 860 859 868 871 877 873SCIENCE HALL ELEMENTARY 720 742 745 614 608 625 634 617 621 663 698 726 750TOBIAS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 720 699 701 635 625 617 635 649 673 718 761 803 844UHLAND ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 900 0 0 769 783 779 783 794 800 854 896 929 958ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TOTAL 10,666 9,306 9,574 9,369 9,375 9,504 9,742 10,045 10,335 10,799 11,153 11,478 11,822Elementary Absolute Change -613 268 -205 6 129 238 303 290 464 354 325 344Elementary Percent Change -6.18% 2.88% -2.14% 0.06% 1.38% 2.50% 3.11% 2.89% 4.49% 3.28% 2.91% 3.00%

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity

Ten Year ForecastBy Secondary Campus

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*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity

HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSCampus Capacity 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28

BARTON MIDDLE SCHOOL 900 648 681 657 590 596 586 573 573 620 665 691 727CHAPA MIDDLE SCHOOL 765 782 805 837 860 844 796 831 863 885 881 916 974DAHLSTROM MIDDLE SCHOOL 855 878 803 857 922 1,000 1,014 1,008 1,039 1,021 1,052 1,076 1,092SIMON MIDDLE SCHOOL 765 716 755 661 614 607 696 703 693 695 704 741 793MCCORMICK MIDDLE SCHOOL 900 653 741 753 793 756 756 734 779 787 848 903 967WALLACE MIDDLE SCHOOL 765 795 793 874 884 881 836 820 839 876 881 924 965MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL 4,950 4,472 4,578 4,639 4,663 4,684 4,684 4,669 4,786 4,884 5,031 5,251 5,518Middle School Absolute Growth 179 106 61 24 21 0 -15 117 98 147 220 267Middle School Percent Growth 4.17% 2.37% 1.33% 0.52% 0.45% 0.00% -0.32% 2.51% 2.05% 3.01% 4.37% 5.08%LIVE OAK ACADEMY 100 197 165 168 177 170 172 173 171 172 172 172 172HAYS HIGH SCHOOL 2,250 2,736 2,889 2,969 3,062 3,075 3,134 3,249 3,244 3,298 3,298 3,338 3,403LEHMAN HIGH SCHOOL 2,250 2,500 2,549 2,732 2,921 3,024 3,062 3,091 3,055 3,011 3,092 3,081 3,131HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL 4,600 5,433 5,603 5,869 6,160 6,269 6,368 6,513 6,470 6,481 6,562 6,591 6,706High School Absolute Growth 248 170 266 291 109 99 145 -42 10 81 29 115High School Percent Growth 4.78% 3.13% 4.75% 4.95% 1.77% 1.57% 2.28% -0.65% 0.16% 1.25% 0.44% 1.75%DISTRICT TOTAL 20,216 19,215 19,755 19,877 20,198 20,457 20,794 21,227 21,591 22,164 22,746 23,320 24,046District Absolute Growth -186 540 122 321 259 337 433 365 572 582 574 726District Percent Growth -1.0% 2.8% 0.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.6% 2.1% 1.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 3.1%

Summary• Hays County’s unemployment rate is currently below 3%.

• The average new home sale price is more than $275,000 within HCISD.

• Hays CISD closed more than 1,500 new homes in 2017, and had the second most annual closings within the Austin MSA.

• There are 745 multi-family units under construction within the NegleyElementary zone, including 216 tax-credit units that will impact the district in the fall of 2018.

• Due to an IDEA Charter school impact, Hays CISD is expected to add 122 students this fall.

• HCISD can expect an increase of approximately 1,475 students during the next 5 years.

• 2022/23 enrollment projection: 21,227.

• Hays CISD is projected to enroll 24,046 students by the 2027/28 school year.

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