have the younger population lost interest in cars?
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Have the younger population lost interest in cars?. An Interim Report Alan E. Pisarski . The Question is: are younger people less oriented to private vehicles or not? . It is argued that the younger population : Is more cell-phone addicted; Is more high density oriented; - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
HAVE THE YOUNGER POPULATION LOST INTEREST IN CARS?An Interim Report Alan E. Pisarski
The Question is: are younger people less oriented to private vehicles or not? It is argued that the younger population: Is more cell-phone addicted; Is more high density oriented; Is less interested in mobility; Thinks cars are for old folks; Thinks walk, bike, transit are the new thing;
Really? Lots more serious study needed!
In the midst of this research As is typical these days in Washington people find
what they want to find; Lets call it advocacy analysis
Washington is something like ground central for the idea
Washington, Arlington and Alexandria are in the top ten nationally of areas with the highest percentage of persons living alone – above 40%
Joel Kotkin calls such places: Graduate Student Resorts!
In the midst of this research The really tough dichotomy regarding this
question and almost everything else today is: how much is a product of the present
pathetic economy and associated issues; and/or
how much really is a new trend? Time will tell; but here’s some of the key
considerations in separating bubble from trend
Among the key factors Incomes Youth & Parent Unemployment Age and Ethnicity factors High vehicle operating costs
Gas Insurance Maintenance
New State Graduated Licensing
The share of younger population is declining
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 202010%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%28% 29%
26% 26% 27%
23%
19%
24%
27%
23%
21% 21%20%
Percent of Population; ages 15-29
The boomers learn to drive
The excitement about one person households is way overstated
There are 30 million persons in one person households;
About 19 million of which are women
only about 1.3 million are under 30 years of age
16-242%
25-303% 31-34
3%
35-6452%
65 Plus40%
Age Distribution in One Person Households
Mostly “little old ladies”
MALE FEMALE 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
shares by age of one person households
65 Plus35-6431-3425-3016-24
Thousands
Minorities are a Major Share of our Young Population -2011 ACS
At least a third of the population below the age of 35 are minorities
More likely to be low income and to have unemployment in the family Under
5 years
5 to 9 years
10 to 14
years
15 to 17
years
18 and 19
years
20 to 24
years
25 to 29
years
30 to 34
years
35 to 44
years
45 to 54
years
55 to 64
years
65 to 74
years
75 to 84
years
85 years and over
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
BLACK AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POP-ULATION
Axis Title
White66%
Black11%
Asian3%
Other3%
Hispanic 17%
2009 16-24
OVERALL, BLACK & HISPANIC POPULATIONS HAD BIG GAINS IN AUTO OWNERSHIP THIS DECADE – SOME LOSSES SINCE RECESSION
IN 2000
ALL 10.3%
BLACK 23.8%
HISPAN 17.2%
IN 2009
ALL 8.9%
BLACK 20%
HISPAN 12.4%
(WHT NON-H 6.4%) 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 2009 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
% Households without vehicles trend
All Black Hispanic
Year
Perc
ent
More young people living at home
1960 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20090
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Percent of Young People Living at Home
18-24 Men18-24 Women25-34 Men25-34 Women
Source: US Census TAD-1. Young Adults Living At Home: 1960 to Present
Younger people have “staff” !
16-19 20-24 25-29 All other Non-Drivers0
102030405060708090
100Percent of Non-Drivers who Live with Other Drivers
NHTS analysis FHWA
A key factor affecting young – Graduated Licensing Begun in mid nineties; often goes in 3 phases
Learner stage Intermediate stage Full privilege
Age limits in learner stage Only 1 state does not control length of learner stage - 3 months
minimum 49 states & DC ban night driving in intermediate stage
Minimum age 45 states restrict psgrs 46 require supervised driving
Minimum age for full licensing Driver’s Ed. has been a casualty of school budgetsCOINCIDES WITH IMPROVED SAFETY AND TRAVEL
CHANGES
Not much change in overall licensing
2001 2003 2005 2007 20090
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 this decade's licensing trend
19 UNDER M 19 UNDER F 20-24 M 20-24 F
% Both sexes equally con-strained
Young women ahead of men
Insurance costs have been rising
insurance rose from $778 in 2000 to $886 in 2006 and to $1,010 in 2010 up 30% in the decade
Adding a male under 25 can raise family car insurance 2x
2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
40.21%37.04%
32.02%34.70% 33.71%
26.18% 27.22%
31.56%
25.93%27.77%
8.09% 8.43% 8.50% 9.57% 10.25%10.41%12.23% 12.94% 14.04% 13.16%
strange stability in spending over 5 turbulent years
veh purch gas Maintenance and repairs Vehicle insurancepe
rcen
t of
tra
nspo
rtat
ion
spen
ding
THE BIG DRIVER: JOBS
1990 1995 2001 20090%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
62% 66%70%
56%
82% 82% 85%
72%
Percent Workers within Age Group
16-2425-2955-6465+
Perc
ent
Wor
kers
NHTS FHWA
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
Unemploy- ment in 2001 was about half of present
Nov 2012
16-19 24%
Blk 41.3%
20-24 14.6%
Blk 25.2%
Dates ALL 16-19
White 16-19
Black 16-19
HISP 16-19
May 2012 24.6 22.0 36.5 30.4
April 2012
24.9 22.1 38.2 26.1
April 2009
20.9 18.8 33.5 26.5
May 2009 23.6 21.1 40.1 31.0May 2001 12.6 11.2 23.4 6.1 all
HispApril 2001
13.3 11.5 24.4 6.1 all Hisp
Re Unemployment PEW CENTER STUDY Feb 2010
Pew Center – 37% of young respondents either out of work or underemployed. Highest in 3 decades of surveying.
High percentages of college grads are unemployed or under-employed in jobs that don’t require their degrees.
W. Post Nov 2012 (of AU law grads only 1/3 w jobs in field; 80% have loans av $150k)
The African-American Population
Black 2001 Black 20090%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Worker Trend
16-24 25-30 31-34
Dramatic declines in workers
Mixed picture on Licensing
Black 2001 Black 20090%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Driver License Trend
16-24 25-30 31-34
A similar picture among Hispanics
Sharp declines in workers Again mixed
hisp 01 Hisp 090%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Worker Trend
16-24 25-30 31-34
Hisp 2001 Hisp 20090%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Driver License Trend
16-24 25-30 31-34
White Non-Hisp. also saw declines
Better situation - Pattern same More decline?
White 2001 White 20090%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Worker Trend
16-24 25-30 31-34
White 2001 White 20090%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Driver License Trend
16-24 25-30 31-34
Transit shares rose among minorities – are they the ones most likely to lose car access? LIFO?
2001 20090.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
Transit Share of Younger Pop
blk 16-24blk 25-30blk 31-34hsp 16-24hsp 25-30hsp 31-34wht 16-24wht 25-30wht 31-34
Axis Title
A little closer look- all ages grew Big jump in 25-30 group Less so here
2001 20090.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
Transit Share of Travel by Younger Pop
blk 16-24 blk 25-30 blk 31-34
Axis Title
2001 20090.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
Transit Share of Travel by Younger Pop
hsp 16-24 hsp 25-30 hsp 31-34
Axis Title
Miles driven are down far more among non-workers of either sex
Male non-workers down 27% Male Workers down 14%Females 14%08%------------------------------25-30 age groups did a little better Male 22%/12%Female 11%/07%
NHTS FHWA
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Annual Miles by Worker Status 16-24
MALE WORKER 16-24 MALE NON-WORKER 16-24FEMALE WORKER FEMALE NON-WORKER
Axis Title
Axis Title
VMT trend is not just weak economy or gas prices- it’s a long term demographic trend
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
perc
ent c
hang
e
ANNUAL VMT GROWTH RATE BY DECADE
TEST: PICK OUT THE YOUNG! THE CHOICES ARE: under 16; 16-20; 21-35; 36-65; over 65
1983 1990 1995 2001 20090
10
20
30
40
50
60
PSGR MILES PER DAY BY AGE GROUP
DID ANYONE GET IT RIGHT?
1983 1990 1995 2001 20090
10
20
30
40
50
60
16.220.1
25 24.5 25.322.2
34.436.4 38.1
29.531.1
44.3 46 45.6
37.7
PSGR MILES PER DAY BY AGE GROUP
Under 16 16 to 20 21 to 35 36 to 65 Over 65
Transportation is more important to the young in terms of spending
Both under 25’s and 25-34 group spend more on transportation as share of total expenditures and as share of total income
CEX
All consumer units
Under 25 years
25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55-64 years 65-74 years
17%18% 18%
17% 16% 17%16%
13%
20%
15%
13% 12% 12%13%
TRANSPORTATION SPENDING BY AGE GROUP - 2011
trans share of expenditurestrans share of income
They are first in transportation spending
% of Spending Under 25 years
25-34 years
All consumers
Note
Transportation 18.3% 18.4%
16.7% All others under 17%
Also lead in spending per vehicle
And on other good stuff % of Spending Under
25 years
25-34 years
All consumers
Note
Transportation 18.3% 18.4%
16.7% All others under 17%
Also lead in spending per vehicleFood away from home
6.6% 5.8% 5.3% 1st and 2nd
Alcoholic beverages
1.4% 1.1% .92% All others under 1%
Lead in spending per vehicle
All consumer units
Under 25 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55-64 years 65 years and older
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1.9
1.1 1.72.0
2.3 2.1
1.6
spending on transportation per vehicle owned
number of vehicles
Transit is more important to young than other age groups but still minor overall All consumer units spend less than 1% of their transportation spending on transit
Under 25’s spend almost 2%; they spend 3 times more on air travel than on transit All
con-sumer units
Under 25 years
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-54 years
55-64 years
65 years and older
75 years and older
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
75.09
103.2997.45
72.67
97.53
79.51
25.76 26.41
Annual Spending on Transit 2011
dolla
rs
Decline in hh trips 2001-2009
If we think of trips as mandatory or discretionary then middle income hh would have most cost pressure and most discretionary travel to cut
ALL
< $10,0
00
$10 to
$20,0
00
$20 to
$30,0
00
$30 to
$40,0
00
$40 to
$50,0
00
$50 to
$60,0
00
$60 to
$70,0
00
$70 to
$80,0
00
$80,00
0+
Unrepo
rted
-16.00%
-14.00%
-12.00%
-10.00%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
DECLINE IN HH PERSON TRIPS BY INCOME
% c
hang
e
Some concluding thoughts: Yes they love their cell phones, texting and cafés Yes they spend lots of time on games Yes they love the environment Some of them love the Graduate Student Resorts But the economy seems to be a perfectly adequate
explanation of declining use of autos recently, abetted by some of the other costs exacted on the young
– and we never even mentioned college loans!(AU lawyer grads 80% have loans av 150k 1/3 w jobs in field)
We need to give it time --- and to produce more un-biased data collection and analysis instead of advocacy
analysis A new study by AAA Safety Foundation will be out soon
that will help
And MANY thanks to:Adella SantosSusan LissNancy McGuckinElaine Murakami who helped greatly with the data sets from the National Household Travel Survey
Alan E. Pisarski alanpisarski.com
TIME WILL TELL -- Thank You !
Get shares of pop hisp black 01A third of age group is minority pop
White66%
Black11%
Asian3%
Other3%
Hispanic 17%
2009 Race and Ethnicity by age group 16-24