harvest control rules in context – limits, possibilities and the ices experience poul degnbol ifm,...
TRANSCRIPT
Harvest control rules in context – limits, possibilities and the ICES
experience
Poul DegnbolIFM, Denmark & ICES
Workshop on Harvest Control Rules for Sustainable Fisheries Management
13-15 September 2004, Bergen, Norway
Trailer
• The context of Harvest control rules
• Harvest control rules and reference points
• Evaluation criteria
• Evaluation approach
• How to get there
The context of Harvest control rules
Why harvest control rules?
• Harvest control rules is a fix to avoid the annual dealing and wheeling during fisheries negotiations
• Harvest control rules is an element in a policy to move the focus in fisheries management from tactical (annual) decisions to decisions regarding longer term goals
• Harvest control rules is the tactical element of a management strategy
• Management strategies include– Decision (explicit or implicit) on longer term
management objectives and performance criteria– Decision on the relevant knowledge base for tactical
management decisions – Decision on implementation framework (mainly input
or output control etc.)– Implementation modes such as a management plan
including• Sanctions• Rules for tactical management decisions regarding the
fisheries in the current or coming fishing season (harvest control rules)
• Monitoring requirements
The fisheries management system
Monitoring,surveillance,control
Fishery
Managementmeasures
Management decision
Management decision system
Resource systemSocial system
Perceived system
Fishing decision and fishing
Adaptation system
Strategic decision system /Management strategy
Relevant KnowledgeImplementation
framework
ObjectivesPerformance criteria
Harvest control rule
If state=xx then do yy
Tactical decision system
Corrections to objectives(‘flexibility’)
Accept of knowledge
Management plan
Monitoring requirements
Sanctions
Society:Fleet adaptation
Nature:Variation within regimeRegime shifts
Fishery system
Strategic decision system /Management strategy
Relevant KnowledgeImplementation
framework
ObjectivesPerformance criteria
Harvest control rule
If state=xx then do yy
Tactical decision system
Corrections to objectives(‘flexibility’)
Accept of knowledge
Management plan
Monitoring requirements
Sanctions
Society:Fleet adaptation
Nature:Variation within regimeRegime shifts
Fishery system
The normative string - Objectives and performance
• Achievement of explicit and implicit objectives– Sustainability
• Maintenance of reproductive capacity• Delivery of ecosystem services
– Societal benefits• High long term yields• Social and economic objectives?
– Justice/Equity• Performance criteria
– Robustness– Cost efficiency– Transparancy and legitimacy
The regulatory string – implementation means
• Implementation means – basic choice of main instruments– Output - TACs– Input – effort– Technical incl closed areas
• The choice of implementation means defines options for distributions of benefits
• Once implementation means have been chosen this may become a nearly irreversible choice due to the distributional implications (Example – CFP)
The cognitive string –Predictive- Adaptive balance?
• Uncertainty is here to stay!• Predict or learn by experience from implementation• Passive adaptivity: predict and correct through next years prediction
– Requires either that relevant reference points can be estimated and that predictions make sense technically and operationally
• Active adaptivity: explore a range of exploitation ranges and adapt– Stocks for which data series short or only one state known: explore
production dynamics– Target reference points for stocks where biological interactions are
important or only low productivity seen– Regime shifts?– Stocks where we are uncertain about present state or stock dynamics
• Adaptive elements should be considered for several stocks in the NE Atlantic where dynamics is poorly known
• Dont hardwire HCR parameters if it can be avoided– identify conceptual basis– identify processes to modify
The cognitive string – what is relevant, valid and sufficient
knowledge?
• The relevance of knowledge relates to objectives
• The validity of knowledge relates to acceptance by stakeholders
• Sufficency of knowledge relates to the desired robustness of the management strategy
Harvest control rules cannot be developed or evaluated independently of their normative, cognitive and regulatory context.
HCRs must always be seen as one element in a management institution which is subject to external constraints and includes a range of decisions and assumptions regarding objectives, knowledge and
implementation
Distortions in the normative, cognitive or regulatory embeddedness of HCRs in the management institution will lead to failure to achieve objectives and ultimately to conflict
If harvest control rules ar used as a fix to solve problems in the decision making process they will fail – HCRs will only work if the existing problems are addressed simultaneously.
Harvest control rules should only be considered as elements in a management strategy which simultaneously addresses the cognitive, normative and regulatory issues which are external to the HCR but conditional for its operation
Strategic decision system /Management strategy
Relevant KnowledgeImplementation
framework
ObjectivesPerformance criteria
Harvest control rule
If state=xx then do yy
Tactical decision system
Corrections to objectives(‘flexibility’)
Accept of knowledge
Management plan
Monitoring requirements
Sanctions
Society:Fleet adaptation
Nature:Variation within regimeRegime shifts
Fishery system
HCR parameters
HCR parameters
• Limit points– Relates to conservation (reproductive
capacity, ecosystem services)
• Target points– Relates to societal benefits
• Trigger points– Technical signpost for decisions
Default current HCR
• TAC decision based on two-year catch forecast based on stock size one year prior to fishing season
• Limits: Blim and derived from this Flim
• Trigger points: PA reference points
• No target reference points
• PA reference points are only relevant as trigger points within current default HCR
• In other management strategies present PA reference points may be irrelevant
• With the introduction of an extended range of management strategies we will need to change the advice framework to link to management plans beyond present default option
• The present pa advisory framework is just a special case for one strategy variant
HC
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Management strategy evaluation criteria
• Achievement of explicit and implicit objectives– Sustainability
• Maintenance of reproductive capacity• Delivery of ecosystem services
– Societal benefits• High long term yields• Social and economic objectives?
– Justice/equity• Performance criteria
– Robustness– Cost efficiency– Transparanecy and legitimacy
The PA and HCR evaluation• The precautionary approach:
– Robustness of management regime to uncertainties regarding achievement of sustainability
– Sustainability: reproductive capacity and ecosystem services
• Robustness to– Data uncertainty
• May be estimated but...– Model uncertainty
• Sensitivity to model choice– Implementation uncertainty
• Sensitivity – historical performance• Bias – nonreporting and discards
– Uncertainty about future state of nature• Sensitivity – S/R parameters, growth, M, maturity
Performance evaluation
• Robustness
• Cost efficiency– Data requirements– Assessment costs – complexity, updates– Implementation requirements (MCS)
• Transparency– Methods acceptance – complex, intuitive?– Process open to public scrutiny
Evaluation approach
HCR evaluation from objectives
Objectives Performance criteria
Evaluation
Management regime
Harvest control rule and its parameters such as trigger and target points
HCR evaluation by trial and error
Objective achievementPerformance
EvaluationHarvest control rule and its parameters such as trigger and target points
Management regime
Uncertainty in HCR evaluations• Robustness to
– Data uncertainty• May be estimated but...
– Model uncertainty• Sensitivity to model choice
– Implementation uncertainty• Sensitivity – historical performance• Bias – nonreporting and discards
– Uncertainty about future state of nature• Sensitivity – S/R parameters, growth, M, maturity
• All these should be included in a HCR evaluation• Two approaches:
– stochastic modelling when uncertanties can be estimated– Sensitivity analysis when uncertainties cannot be estimated or modelled
• Stochastic modelling on basis of estimates of uncertainty:– Data uncertainty
• Sensitivity analysis– model uncertainty– implementation uncertainty– uncertainty about future state of nature
How to get there
ICES transition
• Develop conceptual base for management strategy evaluations incl HCR evaluations, include in form of advice framework (2005)
• SG to provide tools for WGs for HCR and target ref point candidates in 2005 – initially based on trial-and-error framework
• 2005 forward – Dialogue with clients about management strategies – to develop
HCRs in context– modify advisory framework to relate to management strategies –
from pa reference points to management strategies– Develop appropriate management strategy evaluation tools
Short term problem in implementation
• The present pa framework is percieved as universally applicaple independently of management strategies
• Communication issue: develop and accept management plans which are precautionary relative to sustainability concerns but do not relate to the present pa reference point framework except for Blim.
Longer term – changed advice delivery mechanisms
• We need to move from ’Vatican’ model (smoke out of chimney after closed non-transparent process)– To
• ’Socratic’ model - exploratory, dialogue based search evaluation of options
• Requires that advice is presented as a wider range of options with implications and that stakeholders & advisors spend considerable time exploring these
• Handling unceratinties and risks should be a shared responsibility
Strategic decision system /Management strategy
Relevant KnowledgeImplementation
framework
ObjectivesPerformance criteria
Harvest control rule
If state=xx then do yy
Tactical decision system
Corrections to objectives(‘flexibility’)
Accept of knowledge
Management plan
Monitoring requirements
Sanctions
Society:Fleet adaptation
Nature:Variation within regimeRegime shifts
Fishery system