harvard university, july 26 th , 2012
DESCRIPTION
Accountability as a driver for reform: The “PISA shock“ of 2001 – a spotlight on the case of Germany Dr. Jörg Dräger. Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012. The „PISA shock “ of 2001 made education an issue of national interest and triggered major policy changes. PISA shock 2001. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Accountability as a driver for reform: The “PISA shock“ of 2001 – a spotlight on the case of Germany
Dr. Jörg Dräger
Harvard University, July 26th, 2012
![Page 2: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The „PISA shock“ of 2001 made education an issue of national interest and triggered major policy changes
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 2
PISA shock2001
Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools
Structural policy reform:no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces
New transparency and empiricism:competence standards and accountability
Germany below
average in all skills dimensions
Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum
reading skills
Impressive improve-
ments
But also: reasonable
fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness
Publ
ic a
nd p
oli-
tical
atte
ntio
n
![Page 3: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
PISA ended a period of complacency and self-confidencein Germany
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Seite 3
PISA shock2001
Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools
Structural policy reform:no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces
New transparency and empiricism:competence standards and accountability
Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum
reading skills
Impressive improve-
ments
But also: reasonable
fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness
Germany below
average in all skills dimensions
tical
atte
ntio
nPu
blic
and
pol
i-
![Page 4: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Ideology instead of accountability: German educational policy has a difficult history with transparency
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 4
Is the new age of trans-
parencyreally
sustainable?
1960-
1970
1970 -
2000
2000-
2010/12
Two international comparative studies on student achievements show very problematic results for
Germany. As a reaction, politics quits such studies.
30 year of ideology (and no facts) in education: excellence vs. equity,
one-tiered vs. multi-tiered school system, …
PISA ends a period of ideology and complacency,followed by an empirical and pragmatic approach
to educational reforms
![Page 5: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Positive reviews: PISA has done more for education in Germany than 30 years of ideological discussions before
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 5
„PISA stopped the complacency and self-confidence, with which Germany had looked at its education system for too long.“
Der SPIEGEL, 2010
„Since PISA, education is no hullabaloo anymore.“ Baumert, 2011
„Germany has become a role model for cooperation between academia and politics.“
Klieme et al., 2010
![Page 6: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Increasing challenges for education in Germany: Changes in society lead to an unprecedented classroom diversity
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 6
PISA shock2001
Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools
Structural policy reform:no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces
New transparency and empiricism:competence standards and accountability
Germany below
average in all skills dimensions
Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum
reading skills
Impressive improve-
ments
But also: reasonable
fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness
Publ
ic a
nd p
oli-
tical
atte
ntio
n
![Page 7: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Demographics, migration and parents put increasing challenges on the German education system
Demographics: number of students (and schools) heavily shrinks
Migration: Germany becomes (much more) diverse
Parental will: parents want all children to go to grammar
school
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012
Growing diversity means additional reform pressure for the German education system
Page 7
![Page 8: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Relative change in numbers of 10- to 15-year-old children (2009 to 2025)
legend: changes in percent
Source: Bildung in Deutschland 2010, www.wegweiser-kommune.de
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 8
Demographics: Number of students shrinks by 15% – in some West German regions even by up to 40%
School mergers
–classroom diversity is increasing
![Page 9: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
über 25 Jahre 0-5 Jahre
34 %
16 %
+ 112%
Source: Mikrozensus 2007
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012
Germany: share of population with migration background
Frankfurt: almost three out of four newborns with migration backgrund
Source: Bildung in Deutschland 2010, Mikrozensus
Migration: Germany is today an immigration country – one third of the youngest with migration background
Page 9
Classroom diversity is increasing
72%
![Page 10: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 10
Parental will: The grammar school (Gymnasium) becomes the comprehensive school of the middle class
students at grammar schools as share of all students in class 8 (in percent)
Local grammar
school share of up to 80%
–classroom diversity is increasing
![Page 11: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The PISA shock has opened a window for some major structural policy reforms in Germany over the last decade
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 11
PISA shock2001
Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools
Structural policy reform:no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces
New transparency and empiricism:competence standards and accountability
Germany below
average in all skills dimensions
Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum
reading skills
Impressive improve-
ments
But also: reasonable
fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness
Publ
ic a
nd p
oli-
tical
atte
ntio
n
![Page 12: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
ECEC, full-day schools, inclusion, two-tier schooling: Germany has started a wide ranging reform
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 12
Two-tiered schooling as a standard
Structural changes in
German education
Expanding full-day schooling Commitment to inclusive education
Expanding Early Childhood Education
2001
58 %
2011
88 %
![Page 13: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Expanding quality Early Childhood Education: Massive in-vestments and new legal entitlement, but a long way to go
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 13
Dynamic expansion, but legal right for child daycare (under 3 ys.) in
2013 very difficult to meet (demand 50%, today‘s supply 25%)
Source: Mikrozensus 2001, Bertelsmann Stiftung: Länderreport Frühkindliche Bildungssysteme 2011
under-three-year olds (2001-2011): Institutional daycare has tripled
Better Quality (2006-2011):child-staff ratio down to 4.7 from 6.5
2001
58 %
2011
88 %
three-year olds in daycare (Germany)
![Page 14: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Two-tiered schooling as a standard: Germany‘s traditional multi-tiered schooling system is being dissolved
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 14
Decline of Hauptschulen leads to a new system of Gymnasium (grammar school, 12 years) and
one additional type of secondary school (13 years).
%
Pupils at Hauptschulen (8th grade)
Pupils allowed tostudy at HEI
Educational expansion in Germany
Development 1960-2010
Hauptschule: 72 % to 18 %
Access to Higher Education: 6 % to 48 %
![Page 15: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Expanding full-day schooling: Very dynamic expansion,but supply still lags far behind actual demand
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 15
numbers in percent
growth rate
Share of all pupils in full-day schoolingAttendance rate
full-day schooling
Germany: 28 %
Sweden: 100 %
USA: 100 %
Canada: 100 %
Dynamic expansion with huge regional disparities,
but Germany is still far behind international
standards and demand
Source: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2012
![Page 16: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Commitment to inclusive education: About half a millionchildren with special needs may attend regular schooling
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 16
On average two special need children per regular class
– Need for new didactics
(individual support)Implementing UN convention leads to dissolution of special needs schooling in Germany
485.418 special needs pupils
3.306 special need schools
9 types of special support
Toda
yTo
mor
row
![Page 17: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
New transparency and empiricism: The PISA shock triggered an unseen collaboration of politics and academia
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 17
PISA shock2001
Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools
Structural policy reform:no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces
New transparency and empiricism:competence standards and accountability
Germany below
average in all skills dimensions
Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum
reading skills
Impressive improve-
ments
But also: reasonable
fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness
Publ
ic a
nd p
oli-
tical
atte
ntio
n
![Page 18: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
PISA has brought standards and accountability into German education
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 18
National competence standards (since 2004)
Output-oriented competence standards for grades 4, 9 and 10
developed by academia,enacted by politics
institutionalized in 2010
National education report (since 2006)
Bi-yearly indicator-based monitoring by an expert consortium of indepen-
dent academics and commissioned by politics
PISA follow up
Regular participation in international study, but
since 2006 no intra-German comparison anymore (due to self control of the Länder)
Regulated transparency: Politics tends to keep data under control
![Page 19: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Looking at the results: Germany has experienced a decade of impressive educational improvements
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 19
PISA shock2001
Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools
Structural policy reform:no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces
New transparency and empiricism:competence standards and accountability
Germany below
average in all skills dimensions
Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum
reading skills
Impressive improve-
ments
But also: reasonable
fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness
Publ
ic a
nd p
oli-
tical
atte
ntio
n
![Page 20: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Germany is not Germany: Average science performanceof the 16 German Länder differs by nearly 60 points
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 20
Average science competence gap of two school years between Saxony and Bremen
![Page 21: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Improvements in all dimensions: Germany has reached the OECD average in reading, exceeded in maths and science
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 21
Significant improvements in all skills dimensions over the last decade:
13 points in reading, 23 points in maths and science (=one school year)
Source: PISA 2009 Results: Learning Trends, simplified illustration
Reading Mathematics Science
2000
2009OECD
Average
BelowAverage
AboveAverage
2000
2009
2000
2009
![Page 22: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Germany‘s success story stems from closing the gap – but unfortunately at the cost of the best
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 22
Disparities have decreased, but are still significant –Remarkable improvements from the bottom, stagnancy at the top
impr
ovem
ent f
rom
200
0 to
200
6 (P
ISA
poin
ts)
reading skills 2000 (PISA points)
!
Formerly weak Länder succeed Overall skills disparities decrease
PISA 2009 Results: Learning TrendsSource: Wössmann, 2012
reading skills
![Page 23: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Social dependency has significantly decreased – Germany‘s socio-economic gradient now at OECD average
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Page 23
Coming from lag-end in 2000, Germany‘s social-economic gradient has now reached OECD average
social dependency
Migration(reading competence 2000-2009):
students with migration background (+27 points) have made up for one
school year (others: +4)
Family background (reading competence 2000-2009):
working-class children have significantly
improved, while upper social class perfor-mance decreased
Source: Klieme et al., 2010
![Page 24: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012
Share of students below minimum reading skills (PISA)
Source: PISA 2000 and 2009
Page 24
Germany USA Canada Finland Korea0
5
10
15
20
25 22.6
17.9
9.6
7.05.8
18.5 17.6
10.3
8.1
5.8
2000 2009
perc
ent
But the most serious problem is still to be solved: One out of five children is lost to inadequate education in Germany
Significant progress, but nearly one in five teenagers still cannot properly read (focus: boys with migration
background)
![Page 25: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012
Klasse 9a: Gute Bildung ist möglich
Page 25
Conclusion: Though it was not planned, Germany hasmoved piece by piece towards a whole-system reform
PISA triggered (new) transparency
More Lear-ning Time (ECEC + full-day school)
Focus on outcome/
performance
Inclu-sive edu-
cation
Individualized support for ALL children
Strong public and political attention
2-tiered school
structure
Þ improved structures & opportunities
Piece by piece towards a whole-system reform
Þ capacity building
Þ standards&
autonomy
![Page 26: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012
Klasse 9a: Gute Bildung ist möglich
Page 26
Fear: Losing transparency again would endanger the whole system’s stability
Less Transparency
More Learning
Time (ECEC + full-day)Focus on
outcome/
performance
Inclu-sive edu-
cation
Individualized support for ALL children
Decreasing public and political attention
2-tiered school structure
Þ Danger of wasted money (expensive
unmeasured measures)
Well-meant, but not well-
done reform pieces
Þ Danger of arbitrariness
Dangerous self-control of the Länder
• most-problematic areas not measured (Haupt-schulen, special need schools)
• no comparison between Länder anymore (exit from PISA-E)
• scientists without access to PISA data
![Page 27: Harvard University, July 26 th , 2012](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081511/5681652e550346895dd7b35e/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Accountability as a driver for reform: The “PISA shock“ of 2001 – a spotlight on the case of Germany
Dr. Jörg Dräger
Harvard University, July 26th, 2012