HARNESSING YOUTH PARTICIPATION TO OVERCOME MIDDLE INCOME TRAP

Haidy Ear-DupuyADB’s NGO and Civil Society CenterRegional Sustainable Development Department

Structural ChangeMigrationLabor Contribution to Development

ASIA’S 6% GDP FROM 1960-2010

3

1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2003 20100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Asian Share of Global GDP

1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-20100.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Asian Growth Rates

JapanNIC'sChina & India

GDP

Grow

th R

ate

• Asia began to re-emerge after 1950, spurred first by Japan, followed closely by the NICs

• Starting in 1980s, first PRC then India gave further boost

RE-EMERGENCE OF ASIA

• Asia accounted for about 60% of world economy before Industrial Revolution

• In the following two centuries, Asia’s share declined to 15%

• Asia’s share today is 28%

Two scenarios: Asia Century (AC, high case) and

Middle Income Trap (MIT, low case) scenarios.

AC not Preordained: income disparities, environmental challenges, resources limitation, governance, climate changes

ASIA 2050: ASIAN CENTURY

5

Asia; 52%

North America, 13%

Latin America & Caribbean,

10%

Europe; 18%

Sub Saharan Africa; 2%

Middle East & North Africa; 3%

Rest of World, 2%

Converging Asia Scenario: 2050GDP at market exchange rate (Trillion)

World 333Asia 174United States 38

GDP per capita at Constant PPPWorld 37,300Asia 40,800United States 94,900

Per cap incomes similar to Europe today; No poor country.Asian century driven by Asia 7: India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, PRC, Republic of Korea, and Thailand projected to account for 91% of Asia’s growth between 2010-2050.

THE ASIAN CENTURY

More Value Addition and growth with inclusion and equity

•Better skills •Beyond factory to services and knowledge-based

• Deepening interaction and participation—more inclusion

• Connecting economics to governance• Role of the people—youth energy

WHAT’S NEXT FOR MIDDLE INCOME?

YOUTH INCLUSION

YOUTH: A PRECIOUS NATURAL RESOURCE

• Deepening Intergenerational engagement• Better skill-higher value• More interaction with government—Balanced approach to

governance• More responsive governments—supply and demand• Governance matters to youth

• Global Opening Government Survey 2013: 50,000 responses from 61 countries “80% from Mongolia, 82% in Indonesia-want government to be more open”

ASIAN YOUTH CARES ABOUT GOVERNANCE

As countries get richer, their citizens demand a greater say-voice- in defining the country’s goals

6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 110

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

(log) real GDP per capita, 2005

• “The manner in which power is exercised in the management of a country’s social and economic resources for development” (ADB 2000)

• Worldwide Governance Indicators• MDBs give it a high weight (ADB-ADF, World

Bank- IDA) • UN proposing good governance as a post-MDG

target• 2012 survey in 90 countries: People rated it as

top priority after education and health

GOOD GOVERNANCE MATTERS TO GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT

ARM

AZE

GEO

KAZ

KGZ

TAJ

TKMUZB

PRC

HKGKOR

MON

TAP

FIJ

KIR

RMIFSM PAL

PNG

SAM

SOLTIMTON

TUVVAN

AFG

BANBHU

IND

MLD

NEP

PAK

SRI BRUCAM

INO

LAO

MAL

MYA

PHISIN

THA

VIE

-2.5

-1.25

0

1.25

2.5Score

6 8 10 12log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)

Voice

ARM

AZE

GEO

KAZKGZ

TAJ

TKM

UZB

PRC

HKG

KOR

MON

TAP

FIJ

KIR

RMIFSM PAL

PNGSAM

SOLTIM

TON

TUV

VAN

AFG

BAN

BHU

IND MLD

NEP PAK

SRI

BRU

CAMINO

LAO

MAL

MYA

PHI

SIN

THA

VIE

-2.5

-1.25

0

1.25

2.5Score

6 8 10 12log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)

Regulatory quality

ADB’s Asian Development Outlook 2013

INCOME AND GOVERNANCE DIMENSIONS

ARM

AZEGEO

KAZ

KGZTAJ

TKM

UZB PRC

HKG

KOR

MON

TAP

FIJ

KIR

RMI

FSMPAL

PNG

SAM

SOL

TIM

TON

TUVVAN

AFG

BAN

BHU

IND

MLD

NEP

PAK

SRI

BRU

CAM

INO

LAOMAL

MYAPHI

SIN

THA

VIE

-2.5

-1.25

0

1.25

2.5Score

6 8 10 12log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)

Political Stability

ARM

AZE

GEO

KAZKGZTAJ

TKMUZB

PRC

HKG

KOR

MON

TAP

FIJ

KIR

RMIFSMPAL

PNG

SAM

SOL

TIM

TONTUV

VAN

AFG

BAN

BHU

IND MLDNEP

PAK

SRI

BRU

CAM

INO

LAO

MAL

MYA

PHI

SIN

THAVIE

-2.5

-1.25

0

1.25

2.5Score

6 8 10 12log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)

Control of corruption

ARM

AZE

GEO

KAZ

KGZTAJTKMUZB

PRC

HKG

KOR

MON

TAP

FIJ

KIR RMIFSM

PAL

PNG

SAM

SOL

TIM

TON

TUVVAN

AFG

BAN

BHUIND

MLD

NEP PAK

SRI

BRU

CAM

INOLAO

MAL

MYA

PHI

SIN

THAVIE

-2.5

-1.25

0

1.25

2.5Score

6 8 10 12log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)

Rule of law

ARM

AZE

GEO

KAZ

KGZ

TAJ

TKM

UZB

PRC

HKG

KOR

MON

TAP

FIJKIR

RMI

FSMPAL

PNG

SAM

SOLTIM

TON

TUV

VAN

AFG

BAN

BHU

INDMLD

NEP PAK

SRI

BRU

CAM

INO

LAO

MAL

MYA

PHI

SIN

THA

VIE

-2.5

-1.25

0

1.25

2.5Score

6 8 10 12log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)

Government effectiveness

INCOME AND VOICE

MIDDLE INCOME AND VOICE

17

Planning

Resourcing

Implementation

Monitoring

Evaluation

Inclusive policy making

Bottom up Budgeting

Citizen’s Report Card

CSO/youth participation

Story telling

MfDR framework

• Citizen’s Voice and Action• Grassroots Budgeting• Participatory Governance• eGovernance

TOOLS FOR ENGAGING WITH YOUTH

GOVERNMENT PARTNERSHIP

• ANSA’s Check My School program/Banthay.PH• Youth’s Philippines Good Governance Summit• National Youth Commission on Grassroot budgeting• ADB’s Asian Youth Forum New Delhi 2013—Youth Debate on

critical policy issues-Kazakhstan 2014• UN Technical working group on youth• Due to the participation of youth in the 5th General Meeting of

Network of Asian River Basin Organizations (NARBO), NARBO is now preparing a new program for young professionals.

• Korea Water Forum 2015 will include youth water organizations—inclusion in policy discussion

ASIAN YOUTH IN ACTION

• Stem and reverse the decline in governance – more than dealing with corruption—develop trust

• More transparent and accountable governance

• Effective decentralization

• Requires strengthening of institutions and building new ones

• Increased voice and participation of citizenry

21

INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND GOVERNANCE

• There is a correlation between wealth and demand for better governance—more efficient and effective

• Knowledge economy requires space for participation• Path for each middle income countries differs, balanced

approach to governance dimensions--contextual • Is MIT a misallocation of Talent and innovation stagnation? Or

is it an economic constraint that needs a social solution? • Young people care about governance—voice and

accountability—How does MfDR consciously support inclusion?

• How do you envision your youth contributing?• What are some of joint government and youth initiatives for

improved services?

CONCLUSION