harmonie a common effort of hirlam, aladin and lace on high resolution modelling
DESCRIPTION
HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling. Jeanette Onvlee COSMO General Meeting Cracow, 20080916. Outline. Background and scope of the HARMONIE cooperation HARMONIE mesoscale modelling developments; status and plans - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
HARMONIE
a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE onhigh resolution modelling
Jeanette OnvleeCOSMO General Meeting
Cracow, 20080916
![Page 2: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
• Background and scope of the HARMONIE cooperation
• HARMONIE mesoscale modelling developments; status and plans
• Ensemble forecasting activities and plans• Other developments
![Page 3: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
History• Background: Wish to join forces to meet the challenges of
mesoscale modelling– Common ambitions– Play to each partner’s strengths– Good experiences in previous research cooperation
• Goals of cooperation: full code cooperation on common mesoscale model in IFS/Arpege code framework, joint development of short-range ensemble forecasting system
• A new name:– HARMONIE: HIRLAM-ALADIN Research on Mesoscale Operational
NWP In Euromed• Common activities:
– joint scientific/strategic planning– setup of ALADIN code-based systems in HIRLAM institutes– joint meetings and working/training weeks– from “division of labour” increasingly to interacting, mixed research
teams• ECMWF increasingly also involved (common stakes in IFS system,
research cooperation in physics, dynamics and EPS)
![Page 4: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
HARMONIE components and cooperation:
![Page 5: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Present status of HARMONIE mesoscale
• Data assimilation:– 3D-VAR/FGAT– use of obs: basically everything which ECMWF assimilates is available;
in practice: SYNOP/SHIP/BUOY, TEMP, AMDAR, AMSU-A/B, GEO/AMVs, wind profiler, radar winds
– Var-QC• Forecast model
– dynamics: NH-ALADIN (spectral, SLSI)– Upper air model physics: three flavours
• AROME/ EDMF, explicit deep convection, ECMWF radiation• ALARO/ Bougeault/TKE, 3MT, ALADIN radiation• HIRLAM/ CBR, KFB, RK/CAM3, Saavijarvi radiation (baseline only)
• Surface model/DA: – Externalized scheme SURFEX: ISBA soil, canopy/forest, snow, urban,
lake– OI assimilation scheme– INCA analysis system for nowcasting, validation
• Monitoring, validation and verification tools
![Page 7: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
The Arome-France model config
Arome-France current domain
Aladin-France domain
![Page 8: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
AROME’s resolved convection : a deep change for bench forecasters’ expertise job
Arome
Aladin
Radar observation
The ‘application side’ of the ‘double penalty’ syndrome for verification: details of AROME bring good information about the structure
of the field but they might be more misleading about the timing-position than their ALADIN counterparts at the latter’s
scale
![Page 9: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Some other HARMONIE suites...
NRT suites with AROME/ALARO by almost all HIRLAM partners and some
more (Hungary...)Operational suites with ALARO/3MT in
several LACE countries
In total ~ 13 systems, typically 2.5km, 40 levels
![Page 10: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Data assimilation: algorithms • 3D-VAR:
– Different ways of blending in info from larger scale 4D-VAR– LACE: implementation of 3D-VAR operationally in all LACE countries – Experimentation with rapid update cycling
• 4D-VAR in preparation; – Flow dependency by wavelets, ensemble assimilation; – Take in concepts from HIRLAM 4D-VAR experience: Jdfi, Jk, multiple
outer loops, ...• Experimentation with hybrid variational / ensemble assimilation
techniques - ETKF, Lorenc
• Surface: replace OI with EKF scheme • Initialization with scale-selective DFI
![Page 11: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Data assimilation: use of observations
• Use of observations: Increase range of observations to be assimilated: – HIRLAM: Comprehensive observation impact studies (CIS)
• Now on synoptic scale (AMSU-A/B over sea/land/ice, GEO and MODIS AMV, scatterometer over Atlantic/Arctic, initial results positive; starting on convection exps with SEVIRI, radar winds, GPS)
• Transfer to mesoscale, focus on summer convection and radar– High-resolution sat data: e.g. SEVIRI, IASI, ADM; cloud– and
land-contaminated data, varBC, tuning of obs error stats and impact studies
– Radar winds/precip, GPS, BUFR TEMP• Radar processing inhomogeneity, data exchange, beam blocking
critical issues– Surface: screen level parameters, (scatterometer) soil moisture,
SST/sea ice, lake, snow, snow on ice
![Page 12: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Impact of additional sat obs over N.Atl.:
winter month
![Page 13: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Psurf
T Hu
FF
DD
Assimilation of radar winds: Neutral to slightly positive scores in AROME-France:
Precip
R0
CNTRL RADAR
![Page 14: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Forecast model: Dynamics
– NH core validation and comparison with hydrostatic: LACE, ECMWF
– Vertical Finite Element formulation– Variable map factor for use of SISL over large
domains – Improved quality of LBC – Nesting experiments with various configurations– More mass-conserving (less diffusive) SL
interpolators (also for coupling to chemistry)
![Page 15: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Forecast model: upper air physics• AROME:
– Highest priority: solve presently remaining problems: overestimate of severe convection, extreme precipitation, negative wind bias over steep orography, minimum temp under very stable conditions
• Physics-dynamics interactions• Impact of additional deep convection parametrization (either within
EDMF or separate) • 3D-turbulence scheme• Tuning of microphysics• Representation of orographic roughness• Stable boundary layer modifications to turbulence scheme
– Surface: compare AROME/HIRLAM snow/forest schemes, add snow on ice parametrization
• ALARO/3MT:– Now operational in several LACE institutes– Comparison with AROME on 5km scale ongoing in HIRLAM
• Convergence between various physics options? Different coding strategies make common interfacing at low level in source code difficult.
![Page 16: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
2nd AROME training course, Lisbon, March 2008
16
AROME performance : low-level scores
• Objective scores of AROME-France using French automatic surface obs network (hourly data every ~30km)
• Beats ALADIN-France in most respects
Scores over France for 5-18 February 2008 (Arome in pink Aladin in blue)
10m windspeed
2m Temperatureforecast range (h)
forecast range (h) forecast range (h)
2m Humidity
![Page 17: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
3MT’s sampling of the ‘grey-zone’ (ALARO-0)
A0 with 3MT =>
A0 without 3MT =>
‘Resolved’ convection =>
Observed precipitations =>
Δx=9.0 km (2x) Δx=4.5 km (2x) Δx=2.3 km (3x)
![Page 19: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Forecast model: other aspects
• Numerical efficiency and portability: profiling studies• Diagnostics, validation and verification:
– Exchange started, but should be intensified– HIRLAM: routine monitoring/verification system, increasingly
enhance with appropriate mesoscale diagnostics tools (incl from COSMO)
– ALADIN/LACE: Catching up with the state of the art – Exchange with other consortia within SRNWP/ Verification
project Programme.
• System aspects:– HIRLAM/LACE: Explore common script system?– SRNWP/Interoperability programme
![Page 20: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Ensemble forecasting activities
Existing real-time LAM EPS systems within HIRLAM/ALADIN/LACE:
• LAEF: – Downscaling of Arpege, plus breeding, ETKF, physics perturbations;
Eur area + part Atlantic, +72h, 20km res, 16 members• NORLAMEPS:
– downscaling of ECMWF TEPS, N.Atl/Eur area, +72h, 12km resolution, 21 members
• SREPS – 5 regional models nested in 4 global models, with SLAF; NAtl/Eur
area, +72h, 27km resolution, 80 members
Under construction: GLAMEPS (others to be replaced by/integrated into this??)– Downscaling of EUROTEPS, plus HIRLAM/ALADIN SV’s, ETKF,
perturbations in physics and surface, ... – NAtl/Eur area, target resolution 10km, 40 layers, 50-60 members
![Page 21: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Ensemble forecasting activities
LAEF:- New breeding/blending/multi-physics system
offers improvements over pure downscaling version => to be implemented operationally soon
- 1st + 2d moment calibration of pdf promising- Optimize operational setup through e.g.
introduction of SMS- Target resolution: 10km- Evaluate outcome of Beijing 2008
![Page 22: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Verification for a two-month period: June-August 2007: Clear improvement of extended LAEF system
Impact of bias correction and 2d moment calibration
![Page 23: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
GLAMEPS
Joint multi-model EPS system for HIRLAM & ALADIN. Present status:• GLAMEPS prototype setup (version 0) implemented at ECMWF. • HIRLAM components: EUROTEPS,
physics perturbations, HIRLAM (forcing) SVs,ETKF, surface perturbations
• ALADIN components: breeding, blending,multi-physics, ETKF, ALADIN SV
• Calibration: BMA for 1st / 2d moment of pdf, Gaussian and non-Gaussian parameters
• Ongoing: configuration tests for prototype distributed GLAMEPS system (v1: March 2009). Continue parallel experimentation in laboratory
• Continue pursuit of Eur. LAMEPS coopera- tion in TIGGE-LAM
![Page 24: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
GLAMEPS
Model domain (for
HIRLAM components)
and EUROTEPS
targeting areas
for Northern,
Middle and Southern
Europe
![Page 25: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Other (HIRLAM) developments (1)
Coupling with atmospheric chemistry Activities:• Make HIRLAM output better suited as input to ACT models
(postprocessing, vert resolution in BL, …)• Dynamics: better mass-conserving properties:
– more accurate interpolators– mass conserving SL scheme of Kaas et al.
• ENVIRO-HIRLAM coupled system being installed as HIRLAM chemistry branch at DMI
To be done: – include aerosols in microphysics– include desired physics options where necessary (e.g. radiation
scheme) – Start study of chemistry-cloud feedbacks
![Page 26: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Current version of DMI-ENVIRO-HIRLAM modelling systems, showing the components of a forecast
WRF-CHEM
Gas-phase chemistry: RADM, RACM, CBMZAerosol dynamics: MOSAIC, SORGAMPhotolysis: MadronichCloud chemistryConvectionDepositionPlumerise
CAC-Aerosol Dynamics
Modal modelLog-normal modes: nuclei, accumulation, coarseMoment equations: Intra-modal coagulation, Intra-modal coagulation, condensation
-GEMS/TNO-EMEP
Min. number of advected quantities: RADM 2 gas-phase chemistry, no cloud chemistry, CAC aerosol dynamics ~ 50
Max. number of advected quatities: Carbon bond IV gas-phase chemistry, cloud chemistry, 8-bin Mosaic aerosol dynamics ~ 250
![Page 27: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Other developments
• HIRLAM: Coupling with ocean model• HIRLAM/ALADIN: Simplified model version for
academia• HIRLAM/ALADIN: Models as tools for regional
climate modelling:– Update of HIRLAM as “climate branch”– Push use of ALADIN as tool for regional projections– Definition and setup of climate branch for HARMONIE
![Page 28: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
RCR 00 + 6h AROME 00 + 6h
SMHI H22 conv. prec SMHI H22 strat.prec.
Radar
![Page 29: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Downscaling EPS with HIRLAMRKKF - cloud scheme: verif. at 2007/08/22 12utc
+42-48
+18-24
]6/5Pr[ hmmP ]6/10Pr[ hmmP
![Page 30: HARMONIE a common effort of HIRLAM, ALADIN and LACE on high resolution modelling](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062500/568159a2550346895dc6f7fd/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
RMSE difference
U
RHU
Expected extra from 3-hourly cycling: - more SYNOPs (Ps only)
- more AMDAR
- more AMV
- more Wind Profiler
- smaller error in the innovation vector for
ATOVS (due to more frequent analysis)
Preliminary results: - improvement for all fields (see figures on the
left where red shades indicate that
3h cycling is better than 6h cycling)
Next:
- diagnose spin-up in the 3h background forecast
Aladin Rapid Update Cycle (Ald-Hun)