harmful algal blooms and domoic acid: latest forecast...
TRANSCRIPT
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Harmful Algal Blooms and Domoic Acid: Latest Forecast and a Look Ahead to the
Upcoming Season
Raphael Kudela & Clarissa Anderson
University of California Santa Cruz
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Summary of 2015
• Combination of the “blob” and El Niño resulted in very warm temperatures—transition to La Nina in 2016
• Development of a west-coast wide algal bloom dominated by the toxic diatom P. australis
• Linkage between warm water, algal growth, and toxicity—warm periods are highly correlated to west-coast blooms
• Toxin saturated the food web, and accumulated in the benthic environment, leading to very toxic crabs months after the bloom dissipated
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A warmer Eastern Pacific with localized upwelling would (statistically) increase the chance of more large-scale bloom events in the future
2016 is Warm & Toxic
Santa Cruz Wharf Total Domoic Acid
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April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 July 2016
Monterey
Santa Barbara
Trinidad
PDA Probability
2016 Predicted Domoic Acid
http://www.cencoos.org/data/models/habs
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August 2015 vs August 2016
2015 2016
Monterey
Santa Barbara
Trinidad
Monterey
Santa Barbara
Trinidad
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PDA Model Tracks Crab Toxicity
Model Threshold
20 ppm
Santa Barbara Block 710, CDFW Crab DA
The Water-column model leads crab toxicity by about one month
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Monterey Bay Model vs. Mussels
20 ppm
Model Threshold
SCW = 2 ppm Monterey = 70 ppm
Santa Cruz Wharf: Blue Monterey Commercial Wharf: Black
PD
A P
rob
abili
ty D
om
oic A
cid (p
pm
)
Monterey and Santa Cruz diverge in 2016
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Current Status August 10, 2016
LEFT: Probability of cells
RIGHT: Probability of toxin
Recent Data: Trinidad, 0-800 µg/L Santa Cruz, ~5,000 µg/L Santa Barbara: 10-100 µg/L
• Conditions are similar, but cooler, to 2015—conducive to bloom events, but probably not a west-coast wide event • Bloom/toxins started much later in the year, and have been slowly building • Evidence for subsurface accumulation of toxin (Trinidad, Santa Barbara)
• Observations and models suggest patchy, high-toxin regions that could accumulate (locally) in crabs and other organisms but not as widespread as 2015
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Living With a Warmer Ocean
• The 2015 “super bloom” was set up by unusually warm conditions and injection of nutrients from upwelling
• A warmer Eastern Pacific with localized upwelling would (statistically) increase the chance of more large-scale bloom events in the future
• 2016 is very warm and toxic, but more spatially variable—the late development of the bloom could result in trophic transfer to the benthic environment similar to 2015
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Thank You
Raphael Kudela
University of California Santa Cruz
831-459-3290