OPEN KNOWLEDGE TOOL: OPERATIONS, OUTCOMES, OBSTACLES, OPTIONS IN THE CASE OF REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION--

USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS) (ADB R-PATA 7248 – Financed by the Investment Climate

Facilitation Fund, established by the Government of Japan)

• Hans-Peter Brunner,

• Kislaya Prasad

• Asian Development Bank

• (December 2012) • Disclaimer [ The views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian

Development Bank. By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area]

Presentation overview: • 1) The GIS application needs and

functions – also quick review on work of other development institutions

• 2) Grasping big benefits for the region through soft and hard project investments

• 3) Visualization of 3 simulation scenarios (How to pick up the “big bills left on the sidewalk” Mancur Olson)

• 4) Implications for action (Getting things to openly flow)

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• http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=hbk05e7q8pair_&safe=on&hl=en&dl=en#ctype=m&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=s&met_s=pop_perc_change&scale_s=lin&ind_s=false&idim=country:CO-94:CO-109:CO-47:CO-13&ifdim=country&pit=1138118400000&hl=en&dl=en

ADB's Statistical data provided to Google (by ERD)

AidFlows

• Map navigation of aid statistics from OECD, WB, and ADB

Beneficiary statistics Development indicators

http://www.aidflows.org/

1. Needs for GIS in ADB 1. Mapping project results as finder

2. Archive of developed map data

3. Map sharing for infrastructure project planning

4. Visualization and analyses of macroscopic data

(Economic indices or data for sector outlook)

5. Making maps for project support (Map section)

This will be skipped to avoid the conflict of the disputed boundary issue.

6. Additional application in individual purposes: 7. For instance web GIS based regional integration model

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As data clearing house

For ADB project planning process

To enhance CoP and ERD function

Reduce unnecessary replication of data

1. Outcome of functions • Potential outcomes of introducing ADB GIS platform

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1. Map data shared by staff/clients

Maps and satellite imagery purchased in each project

Use the data in ADB

GIS platform

Project A

Project B

2. Maps found and shared easily

Map in GIS is easy to find and share

3. Thematic analysis performed

efficiently

GIS enable users to perform statistical analysis efficiently

4. Centralized GIS (Core system shared)

Project A

GIS1

Project B

GIS2

Project C

GIS3

Basic data and software shared in GIS platform

GIS platform GIS platform

GIS platform

GIS platform

1. GMS atlas

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‘

Potential,

pre-identified

South Asia Rail plus Road

Network (purple or orange)

investments plus soft border/ ‘behind border’ infrastr.

(orange dots) [By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]

1. Visually layering investments on GIS (over district poverty)

2. Aggregating big benefits/outcomes for the region through soft and hard project

investments (Grasping the “big bills left on the sidewalk” Mancur Olson)

2. Agent-Based Model

After study region is divided into “tiles”

We populate tiles with economic agents

Match regional demographics

Allow agents to produce, consume, work, trade, etc.

Match current, or proposed trade infrastructure

Simulate COMPETITIVE economic activity

Track incomes, prices, etc.

Evaluate / prioritize investments in simulations

2. Agent based, economic geography model --Tiles and ‘districts’ overlay

[In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]

Percent Increase in Total Volume of Inter-tile Trade Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh India All

Scenario 2 4.05 9.10 2.62 4.74 4.12

Scenario 3 5.24 15.97 4.42 7.22 6.34 Increment 1.19 6.86 1.79 2.48 2.14

Percent Change in Net Exports (Inter-Country Flows) Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh India

Scenario 2 6.52 9.47 3.24 33.64 Scenario 3 7.96 16.98 3.69 49.27 Increment 1.35 6.86 0.44 11.70

Both “hard” and “soft” investments have significant effects on inter-tile trade: the total volume of trade is higher for all countries (although there are differences in magnitude).

Inter-country effects are large: Infrastructure investments lead to net exports that are larger for all countries.

2. Trade flow generation by scenario and country

2. The trade generation iceberg (‘bills on the side-walk’) • $million p.a. • Wilson Otsuki (2007) for all South Asia

• 2643 • • Phase 1 • 3000

• Phase 2 • 4000

3. Visualization of 3 operational simulation scenarios (Plan and invest – or How to pick up the “big bills left on

the sidewalk” Mancur Olson )

3. Prioritizing investments

Simulate the economy with alternative trade infrastructure scenarios

Three specific investment scenarios are considered (detailed above)

(S1) A benchmark scenario with existing, present day transport network only [no new investment]

(S2) Enhancement of existing transport with a set of non- perishable trade-supporting investments only

(S3) Enhancement of existing transport with a full set of perishable and non-perishable investments

S1, District-Level Incomes (click to run movie)

3. Income dynamics (Existing Infrastructure)

[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]

District-income: Income growth above baseline S1, due to S2 investments (click to run movie)

3. Income differences

[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]

District-income: Income growth above S2 due to S3 investments (click to run movie)

3. Income differences

[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]

District-level income growth above baseline from full AfT investment package (click to run movie)

3.Income differences

[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]

3. Some key results

Average incomes increase due to AfT investments

Both “hard” and “soft” investments are important for welfare

Significant variation is observed across the study region in the benefits from AfT transport and trade investments

Many regions in the economic periphery enjoy dramatic improvement in income from investments

Regions that become well connected due to infrastructure investments gain the most

User fee structure does not significantly affect income growth and levels (but does affect trade flows)

4. Get things to flow

•From locked-up potential

•To shared, green prosperity

4. What next?

General Application Development (see business case)

User friendly interface for web GIS, Run MyCode…

Licensing arrangements

Restricted access arrangements, to satisfy government concerns (sovereign rights, info and legal integrity, commercial confidentiality…)

Partnering to open the application, and to show its potential of combining with open data

How knowledge tool can be made public for use?

Ensure sustained development of data base, and refinement

Open provision of basic data?

Provision of club goods?

4. What next?

From Roadmap Approach to Country Investment

Further development of regional integration indicators with targets, baselines

Further development of project concepts, implementation plan, with strong country ownership

Engage governments in opening up the data and application, while serving specific investment needs of governments and ADB, with legally mandated confidentiality