hans-jörg isemer, ibs, [email protected]

Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, [email protected] Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004

Examples of German and Interational Programmes in

the Field of Global Water Cycle

Hans-Jörg Isemer

GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH International BALTEX Secretariat

Germany

GLOWA – A German Programme funded by BMBF

DEKLIM – A German Programme funded by BMBF

BALTEX – A CSE of GEWEX

www.glowa.orgwww.deklim.dewww.gkss.de/baltex


GLOWA

Global Change in the Hydrological CycleA Programme funded by the German Research Ministry BMBF

The aim of GLOWA is to develop simulation-tools and instruments which will allow to develop and to realize strategies for sustainable and future-oriented water

management at regional level (river basins of approx. 100.000 km²), while taking into account global

environmental changes and the socioeconomic framework conditions.

www.glowa.org


Scientific Core Themes:

•Natural variability of precipitation, variations caused by human activities and their effect on the hydrological cycl

•Interactions between the hydrological cycle, thebiosphere and land use

•Water availability and conflicting water uses

implemented through 5 major international cluster projects


GLOWA Projects

Development and utilization of the integrated decision support system DANUBIA to investigate ways of sustainable future water use.

Integrative Techniques, Scenarios and Strategies for the Future of Water in the Upper Danube Basin

www.glowa-danube.de


GLOWA Projects

Development of integrated strategies on the sustainable management of water availability problems and water use conflicts arising from Global Change, and of related environmental and socio-economic problems in the Elbe Basin.

Investigation Area: Elbe River Basin

www.glowa-elbe.de


GLOWA Projects

Adressing vulnerability of Water Resources in Eastern Mediterranean Ecosystems due to Climate Change – An Integrated Approach to Sustainable Management

www.glowa-jordan-river.de

Investigation Area: Jordan River Basin


GLOWA Projects

An integrated approach to the efficient management of scarce water resources in West Africa

www.impetus.uni-koeln.de

Investigation Areas: Ouémé Basin (Benin)and Drâa Basin (Morocco)


GLOWA Projects

- Analysis of the physical and socio-economic determinants of hydrologic cycles, - Development of a scientifically sound Decision Support System (DSS) for the assessment, - sustainable use and development of water resources in the Volta Basin.

www.glowa-volta.de

Investigation Area: Volta River Basin


GLOWA

Global Change in the Hydrological CycleA Programme funded by the German Research Ministry BMBF

GLOWA contributes to:

- Global Water System Project (GWSP) of ESSP (WCRP,...) - Hydrology for the Environment, Life and Policy (HELP) of UNESCO

www.glowa.org

Funding Period: 2001 – 2008 (divided in 3 phases)

Funding: ~ 8 mill Euro per year


German Climate Research ProgrammeFunded by the German Research Ministry BMBF

General Objectives:

- To improve the understanding of the climate system and of how it can be influenced by humankind.

- To reduce uncertainties in analysis and forecasting.

- To derive strategies for dealing with climate change (adaptation and mitigation).


4 Major Areas of Research

Paleoclimate Research

Regional Process Studies in the Baltic Sea Area

Climate Variability and Predictability

Climate Impact Research

German contributions to

BALTEX (The Baltic Sea Experiment)



Major Objective:

To contribute to understanding and modelling of the influence of global climate change on water and energy cyle components in the climate system of a continental-scale catchment – the Baltic Sea basin

8 national Project Clusters or Projects

Funding period: 2001 – 2004 (2005, 2006)

Total funding: > 8 mill Euro

Speaker: Dr Daniela Jacob, MPI Hamburg, Germany

www.deklim.de



Development and validation of a coupled model system in the Baltic Region

Accurate areal precipitation measurements over land and sea

Integrated Baltic Sea environmental study: Analysis and Simulation of Hydrological and Ecological variability in the last 1000 years

Influence of nitrogen and carbon fluxes on the water and energy budget of the terrestrial biosphere in the Baltic Sea drainage basin

Hyperspectral satellite data analysis over land surfaces for climate modeling applications

Soil frost and snow metamorphism simulations for the BALTEX region

Baltic Sea water and energy cycle study

Regional evaporation at grid/pixel scale over heterogeneous land surfaces


BALTEX is a Continental-scale Experiment of GEWEX

BALTEX Region

Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, [email protected]

Basin: 2.14 Mill. Km2

Baltic Sea: 440 000 Km2

14 countries

Variable climate and topography

BALTEX Phase I 1993 - 2003BALTEX Phase I (1993 – 2003) Objectives

Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, [email protected] GEWEX SSG #14, 28 Jan - 1 Feb 2002, ECMWF, UK

BALTEX has been defined

to explore and model the various mechanisms determining the space and time variability of energy and water budgets in the climate system of the Baltic Sea catchment and its interactions with surrounding regions by combined data and modelling studies,

to relate these mechanisms to the large-scale circulation systems in the atmosphere and oceans over the globe,

to develop transportable methodologies in order to contribute tobasic needs of climate-, climate impact-, and environmental research in other regions of the world,

to improve weather-, flood forecast and climate models and develop advanced coupled, high resolution forecasting systems.

BALTEX integrates Atmospheric sciences, Hydrology and Oceanography.

BALTEX Phase II (2003 – 2012)

Physical science has made sufficient progress to allow for the application of the knowledge constructed during BALTEX Phase I.

This does not imply that all problems are already solved, but that uncertainties have been reduced considerably by BALTEX.

Lack of complete knowledge must be dealt with by making the remaining uncertainties explicit. It should not prevent from applying the available knowledge

Objectives of BALTEX Phase II (2003-2012)

1 Better understanding of the energy and water cycles over the Baltic Sea basin

BALTEX Objectives

Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, [email protected] GEWEX SSG #14, 28 Jan - 1 Feb 2002, ECMWF, UK

BALTEX has been defined

to explore and model the various mechanisms determining the space and time variability of energy and water budgets in the climate system of the Baltic Sea catchment and its interactions with surrounding regions by combined data and modelling studies,

to relate these mechanisms to the large-scale circulation systems in the atmosphere and oceans over the globe,

to develop transportable methodologies in order to contribute tobasic needs of climate-, climate impact-, and environmental research in other regions of the world,

to improve weather-, flood forecast and climate models and develop advanced coupled, high resolution forecasting systems.

BALTEX integrates Atmospheric sciences, Hydrology and Oceanography.


1 Better understanding of the energy and water cycles over the Baltic Sea basin 2 Analysis of climate variability and change since 1800, and provision of regional climate projections over the Baltic Sea basin for the 21st century

Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, [email protected] GHP#9, September 2003, Lüneburg, Germany

Objective 2: Climate Variability

Courtesy: Markku Rummukainen, SMHI, Sweden

Analysis of past Climate Variability and Provision of Future Climate

Projections (1800-2100)Variations of the mean surface

temperature in Sweden (from Hans Alexandersson, SMHI)

Maximum sea ice extent in the Baltic Sea 1880 – 2002 (from FIMR, Finland)

Total annual river runoff to the Baltic Sea 1921 – 2002 (from BHDC and SMHI)

Change in winter precipitation differs!

ECHAM4/OPYC3

A2

HadAM3H

A2

Climate projections for 2071 – 2100 (PRUDENCE):



3 Provision of improved tools for water management, with an emphasis on more accurate forecasts of extreme events and long-term changes

L e g e n d :

Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul A ug Sep O ct N ov D ec

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C l i m a t e S c e n a r i o s


Bothnian Bay

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S u i t e o f R C A c l i m a t e c h a n g e s c e n a r i o s

H y d r o l o g i c a l R e s p o n s e i n t h e B a l t i c B a s i n

R o s s b y C e n t r e -

Improved tools for water managements, with an emphasis on more accurate forecasts of extreme

events and long-term changes

• To develop further and apply coupled atmospheric-ocean-hydrological models for improved assessments

• To apply different modelling systems to assess climate variability and extremes

• To explicitly take account of the use of ground and surface water resources in studies of future risk of water shortage and extreme events




4 Gradual extension of BALTEX methodologies to air and water quality studies

Algal Blooms

Algal BloomsENVISAT15.7.2003

Gradual extension of BALTEX methodologies to air and water quality studies

• To address pollution and dispersion modelling

• Inclusion of the nutrient-carbon cycles

• To use remote sensing and flux measuring technique of environmental components

• To engage in field experiments that address environmental issues





5 Strengthened interaction with decision-makers, with emphasis on global change impact

assessments

Strengthened interaction with decision-makers, with emphasis on global change

impact assessments

• Effects on society (e.g. tourism, agriculture, trafic, energy supply, water availability…)

• Regional climate change

• Infrastructure adaptation

• Sea level variability and change estimates

• Forecasting of floods, snow pack and hydropower potential

• Reduction of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea

• Groundwater changes caused by changed water cycle





5 Strengthened interaction with decision-makers, with emphasis on global change impact

assessments 6 Education and outreach at the international level

Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX

24 - 28 May 2004

Gudhjem, Bornholm, Denmark

Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX Gudhjem, Bornholm, Denmark, 24 - 28 May 2004

Some Statistics:

Participants: 112

Papers: 114 (78 oral, 36 posters)

Authors: 213

Countries: 18

Multi-Institution Papers: 39 (35%)Multi-National Papers: 24 (21%)

BALTEX Phase II Papers : 35 (32%)

Future river discharge?

Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, [email protected]

Thank you !

Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004

www.glowa.org www.deklim.de www.gkss.de/baltex

hans-jörg isemer, ibs, [email protected]

Documents

info day fp6

future of water

conflicting water

ment of water resources

water use conflicts

glowa projects analysis

german programme

aim of glowa