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halcrow.com
Risk-Based Coastal Asset Risk-Based Coastal Asset ManagementManagement
Adam Hosking
Louise Trim
Ben Hamer
Richard Harpin
Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. November 11-14, 2008
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
Outline
• UK Strategic Risk Analysis
• Applications of approach
• Asset Management System
• Conclusions
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
Strategic Risk Analysis in the UKStrategic Risk Analysis in the UK
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
Risk Management - Background
• In UK 5 million people in 2 million homes live in flood risk areas
• Over 120,000 residential and commercial properties at erosion risk
• Significant geographic variation • Widespread flooding experienced in 1998 and 2000
• “Lessons Learned” led to an enhanced emphasis on flood risk management
UK Government Flood & Erosion Risk Management Objective:
In order to ensure the best use of public money, target spending in those areas of greatest flood risk, whilst seeking to maximise the return
on investment in terms of reduction of flood risk.
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
Risk Assessment for Strategic Planning (RASP)
(HR Wallingford, 2001)
www.rasp-project.net
• Structured approach to the analysis and management of the
flooding system
• Focus on risk, explicitly recognising that defences and flood
plains perform as ‘systems’
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
Analysis Philosophy
• Performance of flood risk structures represented as ‘fragility curves’
• Relates loading on an asset to the conditional probability of failure of that asset given that loading.
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
Predicting to flooding pathway
True Fragility Curve
RASP
• Based on: field inspections, empirical models, limit state equations, expert judgement
• Developed for approx. 60 generic asset types
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
Asset Condition Grades
• Five condition grades
• Based on asset performance, not just traditional condition.
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
Load
Probability
SourceProbability of failure
Load
Pathway
PathwayDamage
Receptor
Depth
The Analytical Approach
www.rasp-project.net
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
Performance-based Asset Management System (PAMS)
PAMS project:
• Developing performance-based approach to identifying and prioritizing management of flood defences
• Ongoing studies, including:
– Improved failure mode analysis to determine key performance features, and hence condition grade
– Local applications to determine site specific fragility curves
www.pams-project.com
Assess for control structure condition
Condition = 5Condition = 4Condition = 3Condition = 2Condition = 1
None
Damage to walings, ties or
fixings?(b*)
Evidence of damage to or absence of
planks?(a*)
Wednesday, 27 February 2008
Asset Type = Beaches Performance Feature = Condition of control structures (timber)
B4a
Notes:
(a*)Severe = Substantial loss of or damage to planks significantly reducing arrest of beach material drift.Minor = Minimal damage to, loss or absence of planks. Groyne still ensures arrest of majority of beachmaterial drift.
(b*)Severe = Significant damage or loss of ties, walings and fixings affecting structural integrity of structureMinor = Minimal structural damage to ties, walings or fixings not affecting structural integrity of structure
No
Severe
Structure still able to arrest sediment drift?
Yes
Minor
No
Partly
Damage to walings, ties or
fixings?(b*)
MInor
SevereNone
Minor
Severe
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
Applications of approachApplications of approach
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
Tiered Approach
Level Decisions to inform Data sources Methodologies
High National assessment of economic risk, risk to life or environmental risk
Prioritisation of expenditure
Regional planning
Flood warning planning
Defence type
Condition grades
Standard of Protection
Indicative flood plain maps
Socio-economic data
Land use mapping
Generic probabilities of defence failure based on condition assessment and crest freeboard
Assumed dependency between defence sections
Empirical methods to determine likely flood extent
Intermediate Above plus:
Flood defence strategy planning
Regulation of development
Maintenance management
Planning of flood warning
Above plus:
Defence crest level and other dimensions where available
Joint probability load distributions
Flood plain topography
Detailed socio-economic data
Probabilities of defence failure from reliability analysis
Systems reliability analysis using joint loading conditions
Modelling of limited number of inundation scenarios
Detailed Above plus:
Scheme appraisal and optimisation
Above plus:
All parameters required describing defence strength
Synthetic time series of loading conditions
Simulation-based reliability analysis of system
Simulation modelling of inundation
(HR Wallingford, 2002)
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
Application of RASP
• Set-up within GIS
• National Assessments:– 2002, 05, 06 & 08
– 2004 Foresight Future Flooding
• Used to inform policy and decision making
• Provide consistent national flood risk mapping (public access)
• Local scale assessments:
– Project development
– Assist in the planning maintenance and replacement of assets
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
Asset Management SystemAsset Management System
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
• Based on existing GIS data platform (SANDS)
• Import, visualize and manipulate asset data• Basis for consistent data capture
• Record asset types and condition, hence fragility
• Identify asset systems
• Link assets to risk areas and receptors
• Use cost models to optimise investment strategies
Asset Management System (AMS)
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
1. Base mapping
2. Asset inventory
3. Relationship between loading and asset condition (fragility curve)
4. Cost models for upgrading from different condition grades (hence improving performance) for a given asset type
5. Flood extent and receptor data
Key Components of System
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
System Components
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
System Components
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
System Components
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
System Components
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
System Components
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
System Components
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
• Use of optimization engine to automate decision-making
• Tool to provide user with top ten outcomes (against multi-criteria objectives), to enable considered selection of preferred option
• Possible development for use at higher, regional & national level to inform policy makers and budget setters
Ongoing Development
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Gulf Coast Hurricane Preparedness, Response, Recovery & Rebuilding Conference. Mobile, AL. Nov. 11-14, 2008
• Benefits of Risk-based Asset Management:
– provides for systematic and co-ordinated approach to asset management
– requires comprehensive asset information (facilitates collection)
– focus on asset function and reduction of risk
– avoid surprises (physical or financial)
– evidence-based decision-making
Conclusions
• AMS benefits:
– built on established database platform
– consistent data storage and analysis
– facilitates improved decision-making
– maximize risk management benefits from finite budgets
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Adam HoskingAdam HoskingHalcrow Inc, Tampa, FLHalcrow Inc, Tampa, FL
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Email: Email: [email protected]@halcrow.com