h theory of money supply
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XBKAVY AO JA@KY S[^^DY
Xbk s{~~dy ao ja`ky s{~~dy is hkxkvji`kh mai`xdy fy xbk ja`kxgvy g{xbavixy$ fg`ls g`h xbk ~{fdic. Xbkvk is
g hisxi`cxia` fkxukk` xua li`hs ao ja`ky= "g) Avhi`gvy ja`ky \JZ g`h "f) Bieb ~aukvkh ja`ky \BZ. J is hkoi`kh
`gvvaudy gs xbk s{j ao c{vvk`cy g`h hkjg`h hk~asixs ao fg`ls \i`cd{hi`e xbk VFIZ bkdh fy xbk ~{fdic< g`h xbgx
si`ck axbkv hk~asixs ao xbk VFI i`cd{hkh i` xbk jkgs{vk ao J gvk g kvy sjgdd ~va~avxia` \dkss xbg` a`k ~kv ck`xZ
ao xbk xaxgd ja`ky s{~~dy ao J$ axbkv hk~asixs ao xbk VFI is ie`avkh oav xbkavkxicgd sij~dioicgxia`. Gccavhi`edy$
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Bieb ~aukvkh ja`ky \BZ is ja`ky ~vah{ckh fy xbk VFI g`h xbk EaI \sjgdd cai`s i`cd{hi`e a`k v{~kk
`axksZ g`h bkdh fy xbk ~{fdic g`h fg`ls. Xbk VFI cgdds B Vkskvk Ja`ky. B is xbk s{j ao "i) c{vvk`cy bkdh fy xbk
~{fdic \CZ$ "ii) Cgsb vkskvks ao fg`ls \VZ$ g`h "iii) Axbkv hk~asixs ao xbk VFI \AHZ.
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is cajja` xa faxb J g`h B g`h xbgx xbk a`dy hiookvk`ck fkxukk` xbk dgxxkv xua is h{k xa xbk skca`h
caj~a`k`x ao kgcb$ `gjkdy HH i` J g`h V i` B. Xbis hiookvk`ck gvisks ovaj xbk ~vksk`ck ao fg`ls gs xbk ~vah{ckvs
ao hkjg`h hk~asixs. F{x xa fk gfdk xa ~vah{ck HH$ fg`ls bgk xa jgi`xgi` V$ ubicb is g ~gvx ao B$ ~vah{ckh a`dy fy
xbk ja`kxgvy g{xbavixy g`h `ax fy fg`ls xbkjskdks.
G. XBK B XBKAVY AO JA@KY S[^^DYGs g oivsx g~~varijgxia`$ ix is gss{jkh xbgx xbk s{~~dy ao B \BsZ is ~adicy hkxkvji`kh. Xbis gss{j~xia` eiks
{s
"3)
ubkvk xbk fgv gfak B sie`ioiks xbgx ix is eik` kraek`a{sdy xa xbk ~{fdic g`h fg`ls.
Xbk g`gdysis ao xbk hkjg`h oav B \BhZ is j{cb javk ij~avxg`x oav xbk B xbkavy. Xbk lky i`siebx ao xbk
xbkavy is xa vkdgxk ix HH av J.
B is hkjg`hkh ~gvxdy fy xbk ~{fdic gs c{vvk`cy \CZ g`h ~gvxdy fy xbk fg`ls gs vkskvks \VZ. Xbksk gvk xbka`dy xua sa{vcks ao hkjg`h oav B i` xbis jahkd. Xbk hkjg`h oav C \ChZ gs g caj~a`k`x ao J is gookcxkh dgvekdy fy
xbk sgjk ogcxavs gs gookcx xbk hkjg`h oav J$ s{cb gs dkkd ao i`cajk g`h xbk vgxk ao i`xkvksx$ gja`e axbkv xbi`es
Xbk sgjk is xv{k ao xbk hkjg`h oav HH \HH hZ. Xbkvkoavk gs g oivsx g~~varijgxia`$ ix is vkgsa`gfdk xa gss{jk xbgx Chg`h HHh uidd fk biebdy cavvkdgxkh*xbgx Ch uidd fk g ~va~avxia`gd o{`cxia` ao HH. Xbis jgy fk kr~vksskh gs
"8)
c$ xbk`$ is xbk vgxia ao Ch xa HH. I` sbavx$ ix is xbk hksivkh c{vvk`cy*hk~asix vgxia ao xbk ~{fdic. c ixskdo uidd kr~vkss xbk
~vkokvk`cks ao xbk ~{fdic gs fkxukk` c{vvk`cy g`h hkjg`h hk~asixs ao fg`ls. Xbkvkoavk c is g fkbgia{vgd vgxia
F{x ix is gss{jkh xa fk g ca`sxg`x i` xbis jahkd.
Xbk vkskvks ao fg`ls gvk {s{gddy hiihkh {`hkv xua bkghs= "g) vkw{ivkh vkskvks \VVZ g`h "f) krckssvkskvks \KVZ. Vkw{ivkh vkskvks gvk vkskvks ubicb fg`ls gvk vkw{ivkh sxgx{xavidy xa badh uixb xbk VFI. Fg`ls
bgk `a cbaick gfa{x xbkj. [`hkv xbk dgu$ xbk VFI kj~aukvkh xa sxi~{dgxk xbk sxgx{xavy vkskvk vgxia$ ubicb jgy
fk gvikh fkxukk` 3 ~kv ck`x g`h 7; ~kv ck`x ao xbk xaxgd hkjg`h g`h xijk digfidixiks ao g fg`l. Kkvy scbkh{dkh
fg`l is vkw{ivkh xa jgi`xgi` gdd ixs VV gs fgdg`cks uixb xbk VFI. Gdd vkskvks i` krckss ao VV gvk cgddkh KV. Fg`ls
gvk ovkk xa badh xbkj gs cgsb a` bg`h gdsa cgddkh \g{dx cgsbZ uixb xbkjskdks av gs fgdg`cks uixb xbk VFI.
Fg`ls badh KV ad{`xgvidy. Xbky gvk bkdh xa jkkx xbkiv cdkgvi`e hvgi`s \i.k.$ `kx dass ao cgsb h{k xa cvass*
cdkgvi`e ao cbkw{ks gja`e fg`lsZ gs ukdd gs c{vvk`cy hvgi`s \i.k.$ `kx uixbhvgugd ao c{vvk`cy fy xbkiv hk~asixavsZ.
Xbksk hvgi`s gvk ~gvxdy kr~kcxkh g`h ~gvxdy {`kr~kcxkh$ eii`e visk xa ubgx jgy fk cgddkh fg`ls xvg`sgcxia`s g`h
~vkcg{xia`gvy hkjg`h oav cgsb vkskvks. Uk by~axbksi}k xbgx KVh uidd fk hkxkvji`kh dgvekdy fy xbk fg`ls xaxg
digfidixiks.
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Xb{s faxb VV g`h KV g`h sa Vh fkcajk i`cvkgsi`e o{`cxia`s ao xbk xaxgd hkjg`h g`h xijk digfidixiks
ao fg`ls. Xbk hkjg`h g`h xijk digfidixiks ao fg`ls gvk ~vkhaji`g`xdy \gfa{x 96+Z h{k xa xbk hkjg`h g`h xijk
hk~asixs ovaj xbk ~{fdic. Xbkvkoavk gs g sij~dioicgxia`$ sgy xbgx Vh is dgvekdy g ~va~avxia`gd o{`cxia` ao xbk xaxgd
hk~asixs ao xbk fg`ls=
";)
v$ xbk` is xbk vgxia ao Vh xa xaxgd hk~asixs ao fg`ls. Oav sbavx$ ix is cgddkh vkskvk*hk~asix vgxia.
Ix is gss{jkh xbgx fg`l hk~asixs gvk ao xua li`hs* hkjg`h hk~asixs \HHZ g`h xijk hk~asixs \XHZ. Xbkoavjkv gvk ca{`xkh gs ja`ky< xbk dgxxkv `ax. Xbk hiisia` fkxukk` HH g`h XH is hkcihkh fy xbk ~{fdic$ eik` xbk
xkvjs g`h ca`hixia`s a` ubicb fg`ls gvk uiddi`e xa skdd xbk xua li`hs ao xbk hk~asixs xa xbk ~{fdic. I` axbkv uavhs
ix is xbk ~{fdic uba hkcihks bau j{cb XH xa badh i` vkdgxia` xa HH. Gegi`$ gs g sij~dioicgxia`$ ix is by~axbksi}kh xbgx
XHh is g` i`cvkgsi`e ~va~avxia`gd o{`cxia` ao HH.
"?)
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x is xbk vgxia ao XHh xa HH. Ix is cgddkh gs xijk*hk~asix vgxia.
Ovaj kw{gxia` "5) g`h ovaj "?) uk ekx
" ) "2)
Ovaj kw{gxia` ";) / "2)
" ) "9)
Vkcgddi`e xbgx $ ovaj kw{gxia` "8) / "9) uk bgk
" )
" ) "7>)
Xb{s Bh bgs fkk` kr~vksskh gs g o{`cxia` ao HH g`h xbvkk fkbgia{vgd vgxias c$ x g`h v.
Xbk jgvlkx oav B uidd fk i` kw{idifvi{j ubk` Bh:Bs av ovaj kw{gxia` "3) / "7>) ubk`
" )
Xbk gfak kw{gxia` cg` fk sadkh oav HH
") "77)
Xbk gfak kw{gxia` eiks xbk kw{idifvi{j gd{k ao HH i` xkvjs ao B g`h xbk xbvkk fkbgia{vgd vgxias c$ x g`h v.
")is cgddkh xbk hkjg`h hk~asix j{dxi~dikv.
@krx$ ovaj kw{gxia` "7) / "8) g`h gss{ji`e xbgx C:Ch$ uk bgk
" )
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Xbk gfak is xbk lky kw{gxia` ao xbk B xbkavy ao ja`ky s{~~dy. Ix jglks xbk s{~~dy ao ja`ky g o{`cxia` ao B g`h
xbk xbvkk fkbgia{vgd vgxias$ c$ x g`h v. Xbk kr~vkssia`
")eiks xbk gd{k ao ubgx is l`au` gs xbk ja`ky
j{dxi~dikv$ . Xbk`$ xbk kw{gxia` "76) cg` fk uvixxk` gs
Xbk B xbkavy ao ja`ky s{~~dy is ~a~{dgvdy cgddkh xbk ja`ky j{dxi~dikv xbkavy ao ja`ky s{~~dy. Xbk
kw{gxia` sgys xbgx xbk hkxkvji`g`xs ao xbk ja`ky s{~~dy ao J cg` fk cdgssioikh {`hkv xua jgi` bkghs= "g) xbask
xbgx gookcx B g`h "f) xbask xbgx gookcx.
Ovaj xbk xbkavy ix is cdkgv xbgx ubkvkgs cbg`eks i` B gvk dgvekdy ~adicy*ca`xvaddkh$ cbg`eks i` gvk dgvekdyk`haek`a{s$ i.k. gvk s{cb gs hk~k`h jgi`dy a` xbk fkbgia{vgd cbaicks ao xbk ~{fdic g`h fg`ls. Xbis is g {sko{d
hisxi`cxia`$ g`gdyxicgddy gs ukdd gs oav ja`kxgvy ~dg``i`e. Ix ij~diks xbgx$ oav ~adicy ~{v~asks$ xbk ja`kxgvy
g{xbavixy uidd ha ukdd xa xglk xbk fkbgia{v ao gs sajkxbi`e a{xsihk ixs ca`xvad g`h xa ca`ck`xvgxk ixs kooavxs a`
ca`xvaddi`e B xa ca`xvad J.
Xbk oaddaui`e oie{vk sbaus xbk hkxkvji`gxia` ao ja`ky s{~~dy {`hkv B xbkavy. I` xbk oie{vk B is jkgs{vkh
kvxicgddy g`h HH gvk jkgs{vkh bavi}a`xgddy. Si`ck xbk s{~~dy ao B is gss{jkh xa fk eik` kraek`a{sdy fy xbk
ja`kxgvy g{xbavixy gx $ xbk c{vk is hvgu` ~gvgddkd xa xbk bavi}a`xgd gris gx xbk bkiebx $ sbaui`e xbgx is
~kvokcxdy i`kdgsxic xa HH. Xbk xbvkk hkjg`h c{vks i` xbk jgvlkx oav gvk {~ugvh sda~i`e sxvgiebx di`ks eai`exbva{eb xbk aviei` i` gccavhg`ck uixb xbk by~axbksks ao kw{gxia`s "8)$ "9) / "7>). Xbk c{vk vk~vksk`xs
kw{gxia` "8)$ uixb ixs sda~k kw{gd xa c. \I` I`hig gx ~vksk`x xbk gd{k ao c is gfa{x a`k. Sa xbk c{vk bgs fkk`hvgu` xa jglk g` g`edk ao gfa{x 8;> uixb xbk bavi}a`xgd gris.Z Xbk c{vk vk~vksk`xs kw{gxia` "9). Ixs sda~k bgs
xbk gd{k ao" ) Xbk c{vk is sij~dy xbk kvxicgd s{jjgxia` ao xbk c{vks. Xb{s$ ix vk~vksk`xskw{gxia` "7>).
Xbk i`xkvskcxia` ao xbk c{vk uixb xbk c{vk eiks xbk kw{idifvi{j ao xbk jgvlkx. Xbgx is$ gx xbis
~ai`x xbk ~{fdic g`h fg`ls gvk o{ddy bg~~y xa badh gdd xbk gja{`x ao xbk ja`kxgvy g{xbavixy cbaacks xa ~dgck i`xbk jgvlkx. I` xbis six{gxia`$ xbk kw{idifvi{j gja{`x ao$ is xbgx sbau` fy < xbk ~{fdic badhs gja{`x a
c{vvk`cy g`h dkgks xbk fgdg`ck ao$ xbgx is$ oav fg`ls xa badh. Oav gja{`x$ xbis is krgcxdy kw{gd xa
fg`ls . Ix uidd gdsa fk `axkh xbgx$ eik` xbk o{`cxia`$ is krgcxdy xbk gja{`x ao c{vvk`cy xbk ~{fdic ua{dh
dilk xa badh ubk` .
K {idifvi{j ao xbk B Jgvlkx